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 REIT, real estate investment...

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Jordy
post May 21 2009, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ May 21 2009, 04:47 PM)
I have no problem with yield around 7-8% if those tenants are going to stay long and paid up on times.

Compared to yield of 10% on Atrium warehouse, while potential lose tenants in between. I would take the 7% for long term play.

Anyway, me invested little nia.
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Your statement is correct, but many of their properties are yielding below 7%, while its average yield for all 10 properties is only 5.72%. I am just worried that its management team's ability in sustaining its growth.
Neo18
post May 21 2009, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ May 21 2009, 04:42 PM)
Done a thorough analysis on some of its properties today (couldn't do more because the management did not disclose the income on other 5 properties). Here are the results:
By looking at the results, we can see 4 properties out of 5 analyzed were receiving low yields. These 5 properties have an average yield of only 7.46% (below average yield for REITs).

Let us take a look at the average yield of the other 5 properties:

Net total annual income (a): RM 12,706,037
Total purchase price (b): RM 319,000,000
Average yield (a / b * 100%): 3.98%

Well, this simply means that the average yield on all 10 properties is (7.46% + 3.98% / 2) = 5.72% (still well below average for REITs).

Anyhow, this yield is just an estimate by using some calculated assumptions based on FY2008's figures. The yield should not increase unless there are positive reversions done this year. Otherwise, we will be seeing another year of low yield.

I am only wondering how did they manage to pay its investors a gross yield of 8.16% (net yield 7.35%) for FY2008 while it is earning a net yield of only 5.72%. Still, if they were able to maintain 7.51 cents distribution for FY2009, those who bought at 0.84 would only be yielding a net of 8.05%.

If any of you who have also conducted a study on QCAPITA and found a mistake in my analysis, please do correct me. I am just hoping everybody would be informed of the actual situation before someone really gets stuck with QCAPITA.

P.S. Just to add onto my comments, another reason I do not have faith in its management is due to the fact that they are not being fully transparent in their report. A good management team would disclose the full breakdown of their income in its annual report. This must be taken into consideration before choosing the stocks to buy.
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deleted because u already mention in your argument

TQ


This post has been edited by Neo18: May 21 2009, 05:14 PM
Jordy
post May 21 2009, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(Neo18 @ May 21 2009, 05:10 PM)
Assuming all your data are correct.. please consider this:

Q capital NTA = 1.2094
Current Price = 0.84
Discount 31% against NTA
Because all of your calculation is basis Purchase price, hence u are using NTA to calculate...

yes base on price of 1.2094, u will get around 8.05% distrubution
but now price is 0.84, hence you will get around 9.6% dividend

Conclusion, price of 0.84 has already taken into account their low yielding property
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Hi Neo,

Why I used purchase price to calculate? Simple. Because I want to calculate its ROI (initial purchase price = initial investment). NTA is not a good base of calculation because it has taken into account the revaluation, therefore we will not see the real picture smile.gif

The initial investment for all 10 properties is RM 715,146,000, while after their revaluation, the assets now are worth RM 816,013,468. The only risk is on its management's inefficiency and transparency. But I do agree with your argument that at 0.84, our friends here are buying at a discount of 31%, which creates a very comfortable buffer smile.gif

This post has been edited by Jordy: May 21 2009, 05:28 PM
cherroy
post May 22 2009, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ May 21 2009, 05:23 PM)
The initial investment for all 10 properties is RM 715,146,000, while after their revaluation, the assets now are worth RM 816,013,468. The only risk is on its management's inefficiency and transparency. But I do agree with your argument that at 0.84, our friends here are buying at a discount of 31%, which creates a very comfortable buffer smile.gif
*
Yup, I am not interested to buy when it is at 1.00 or above.

I calculated the potential DPU of 7.x cents, then dividend by 0.84 = 8.xx % which after witholding tax translate it into around 8% net, that's why I am comfortable with the risk.

Anyway, appreciated your analysis, many thanks. notworthy.gif
darkknight81
post May 22 2009, 12:37 PM

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Jordy,

Thanks a lot for your information. Really appreciate it as i am eyeing on axreit and qcapita now notworthy.gif
Jordy
post May 22 2009, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ May 22 2009, 10:20 AM)
Yup, I am not interested to buy when it is at 1.00 or above.

I calculated the potential DPU of 7.x cents, then dividend by 0.84 = 8.xx % which after witholding tax translate it into around 8% net, that's why I am comfortable with the risk.

Anyway, appreciated your analysis, many thanks.  notworthy.gif
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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ May 22 2009, 12:37 PM)
Jordy,

Thanks a lot for your information. Really appreciate it  as i am eyeing on axreit and qcapita now  notworthy.gif
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Great! I don't think that was a lot of help, but seeing my fellow investors here are better informed now gave me a great satisfaction biggrin.gif
simplesmile
post May 23 2009, 07:56 PM

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http://www.axis-reit.com.my/section.cfm?id=25

Is there a single pdf file to download for "annual report 2008" rather than download 12 separate links?
ks3114
post May 23 2009, 08:21 PM

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Go to www.klse.com.my, under Listed Companies theres a section for Annual Reports on the left. You can find it from there.
simplesmile
post May 23 2009, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(ks3114 @ May 23 2009, 08:21 PM)
Go to www.klse.com.my, under Listed Companies theres a section for Annual Reports on the left. You can find it from there.
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But the report at KLSE doesn't have all those photos, and not so detailed. Isn't there a single file that combines all the 12 separate pdf files?
http://www.axis-reit.com.my/section.cfm?id=25
Jordy
post May 23 2009, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(simplesmile @ May 23 2009, 09:12 PM)
But the report at KLSE doesn't have all those photos, and not so detailed. Isn't there a single file that combines all the 12 separate pdf files?
http://www.axis-reit.com.my/section.cfm?id=25
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It is under KLSE "Annual Reports" and NOT "Announcements". You can find it at http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/li...ports/index.jsp.
simplesmile
post May 23 2009, 09:43 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ May 23 2009, 09:33 PM)
It is under KLSE "Annual Reports" and NOT "Announcements". You can find it at http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/li...ports/index.jsp.
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Hahahaha, thank you very much. Just downloaded. Never knew KLSE has Annual Reports section.
Jordy
post May 24 2009, 12:02 AM

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QUOTE(simplesmile @ May 23 2009, 09:43 PM)
Hahahaha, thank you very much. Just downloaded. Never knew KLSE has Annual Reports section.
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Not a problem, but you should really explore and learn more if you are really into investing.
asambuffett
post May 24 2009, 11:48 PM

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we learn new things everyday....
georgechang79
post May 27 2009, 06:18 AM

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Anyone interested in AMFIRST?

Price now is 0.88 from previous high of 0.945 and lows of 0.82. Dividend Yield 10.299%


darkknight81
post May 27 2009, 08:28 AM

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QUOTE(georgechang79 @ May 27 2009, 07:18 AM)
Anyone interested in AMFIRST?

Price now is 0.88 from previous high of 0.945 and lows of 0.82. Dividend Yield 10.299%
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Eyeing UOAREIT, AXREIT , QCAPITA.....Alll so stubborn.... keep on waiting...
darkknight81
post May 27 2009, 01:35 PM

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Queing UOAREIT at RM 1.09 , 1.08 anyone eyeing this counter?
Jordy
post May 27 2009, 11:50 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ May 27 2009, 01:35 PM)
Queing UOAREIT at RM 1.09 , 1.08 anyone eyeing this counter?
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I'm only buying it if the price goes back to less than 1.00 smile.gif
espree
post May 28 2009, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ May 27 2009, 11:50 PM)
I'm only buying it if the price goes back to less than 1.00 smile.gif
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not worth to buy at above RM1.00?

This post has been edited by espree: May 28 2009, 11:28 AM
ante5k
post May 28 2009, 06:39 PM

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anyone got the axreit check d?
panasonic88
post May 28 2009, 07:28 PM

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QUOTE(ante5k @ May 28 2009, 06:39 PM)
anyone got the axreit check d?
*
no not yet.

pay day is on 29/5, which is tomolo.

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