Major Asian markets have dropped 4-5%..wow. Is this the Plumberly moment finally coming? The Big Crash.

Yes, finally the bear has come to the US market, (and such an angry bear!). Other markets surely will be hurt tomorrow as well.

More downside is likely, but nevertheless, the current levels has triggered my "deploy those cash time" and I will go in several batches over the next weeks/months.

However, the problem now is that, looking at the carnage now, Im spoilt for choices. Should I buy S&P500, Europe, STI, KLSE, HSCEI, OnG, All are pretty low now. But funds are finite.

Appreciate some thoughts.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Mar 12 2020, 10:13 PM

Coz they use many lagging indicators. In end 2008, only they announced recession started in emd 2007.

Many choices now.. Not just US and Bursa, Singapore also look cheap and everywhere else.

Also never say what stocks

And of u look at the Chinese stock like Baba and Tencent, their 1 year return are still green..

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Mar 14 2020, 07:07 PM

This article says 100% chance of a global recession.. So the Plumberly moment has arrived?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/economy/...irus/index.html

Looking at China and South Korea, there are about 3-4 weeks of high panic where number infections n deaths increase massively, and thereafter stabilize and go down.

So I'm looking at Italy now and I think they are nearly the end of this period n hopefully have reached the peak this week. US and other parts of Europe are likely in their second week only. So at least another week or perhaps two to go.

That will be end March. After that the panic will be less and ppl can start thinking straight again, n start rebuilding the pieces. The virus would still be deadly and the economic damage bad, so there will still be perhaps another 2-3 months of false starts before the market will start to go up.

That's my optimistic view of things.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Mar 18 2020, 08:36 PM

Note that my post did not refer to Malaysia at all.

The market leads economic data. So yes, the economic impact will be at least for the next two quarters but market will bottom much earlier. The Q is whether it will be V, U or L shaped.

With all the stimulus and easing globally, I won't be suprised that we have a V shape recovery for the market, maybe not back to where it was earlier this year so fast.

Market here I refer to equities globally. Some markets will be faster, some slower.

Coz US and Europe still falling like madman and they are huge part of the global economy that China is plugged into.

But notice that Shanghai has only dropped about 8% in 1 month.

He probably kena margin call.. 😆

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/bank-of-ame...-destroyed.html

Bank of America says recession is here.

Interesting that earlier in this thread, everyone were talking about the futility of market timing. Now many market timing posts..

Bottom not in yet!

But anyways next week I will probably buy some SPx. That's my last shot for this month.

A short recession is 99% certain. A 1929 depression is indeed a worse case scenario but remember that the governments and CBs all over the world will be throwing trillions of dollars to make sure that doesn't happen.

A short recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. A depression is multi year, like 1929, where it was 4 years of negative GDP growth in the US.

Its not just CBs loosening n printing money, we are going to see massive fiscal stimulus by governments. Eg. US is now looking at a USD2 trillion fiscal stimulus package. If that gets passed, it will be nearly 3 times the size of the stimulus back in 2009. Since US is already having huge fiscal deficit, theoretically interest rates should go up, but that would be tightening n not good. So I expect see crazy big QE, much bigger than 2009, to suppress interest rates. Many countries will do the same at smaller scale.

But market will definitely be extremely volatile. And more downward pressure is highly likely until some control of the situation can be seen.

But what happens when panic subsides? a V is a best case scenario. I believe the market will lead the economy. Meaning the market will go up first before economy recover. Just like now, but in reverse. A U is also quite possible, need to have patience. An L is the scary stuff, the depression thingy.

To face the scary stuff, that has always been the core financial contingency plan : minimal debts, good medical insurance and good amount of spare cash in the event of long unemployment.

But top priority now is to ensure the health n safety of ourselves n loved ones.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Mar 23 2020, 02:24 AM

It didn't pass yesterday

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/coronavirus...ach-a-deal.html

Im less worried about deflation. I'm more worried about stagflation. Cash also no use.