How do u define the "dip". From what point to what point?

Stagflation is a possibility. If u have recession and huge debts and lost control of interest rates/currency.

PBB many SME customers.. The worst group that will get financially hit by this virus.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Mar 23 2020, 08:58 PM

It will depend on the type of mutual fund, n what is stated in the prospectus. So a Malaysian equity fund could be at least 70% in bursa. If it's less then it's no longer a Malaysian equity fund right?

My strategy is to invest on the various different possible outcomes.. Short recession, long recession, V shape, U shape, L shape etc.

I ask myself what if this virus crisis is V shape recovery? What if U shape? L shape? What if there is a prolonged deflation? What if high inflation? What if stagflation? What are the best investments under each situation.

So I look at my total portfolio and make sure that I have different investments that can cover all the bases, then may overweight/underweight some scenarios based on my appreciation of how things are progressing.

Yes I'm pretty much influenced by Ray Dalio all weather portfolio for several years now. It also helps that I have a long investment horizon.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Apr 3 2020, 04:59 PM

Make sure then your equity investment horizon is more than 2021.

I am sure you know this info right? If u miss like just 10 of the best days you returns will be halved.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-happen...et-2019-04-11-0

Are these the secret low liquidity stocks?. 😆

Wait while holding cash is also losing money esp if it's MYR.

In 1 year MYR has dropped 6% to USD and 30% to Gold.

Depend on where the bottom is.. If 3 weeks ago..😆

Article is a few weeks old already..

Anyway, I watched the video halfway, but he basically forecasted that there won't be a V shape recovery, it will be a bad recession followed by a stagflation. I do not disagree that there is a real possiblity of this outcome. So we need to prepare our investments accordingly.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Apr 9 2020, 10:20 PM

This is what everyone here has been saying..

If really believe, should short the market then.

The great depression started in 1929, an economic slump that lasted about 10 years. It brought about a lot of suffering and was ultimately one of the contributors to World War 2. Dow fell 80% from its peak, and it took 25 years to reach back its high.

There are some similarities with now, but I see two main differences in economic terms. The first was monetary policy. At that time the USD was based on Gold, and no room to ease. Monetary policy was too tight going into a recession, which made things much worse and turned into a depression. Now we have super loose monetary policy that is pumping huge liquidity. Secondly is banks, there were bank runs and bank collapses early in the Great Depression. Now banks are better managed and regulated esp since 2008.

I view this Covid 19 as a global level natural disaster, which is still ongoing. But it will end, sooner or later. The later it ends, the worse the damage will be.

From an investment perspective, I try to position my portfolio in case it ends sooner, and also in case it ends later, and also what comes after.

Yes, some similarities but now u see massive monetary and fiscal stimulus coming in fast.. Boom boom boom.. Unlike the Great Depression. The stimulus are coming in faster and bigger even compared to 2008 GFC which was already massive

What are the problems if not covid?

Ah that debt bubble.. 😆

A lot of that debts feed into the market. I believe the stage is now set for the next even bigger asset bubble, once the Covid-19 crisis is over..

It's like a big ponzi scheme at a global level. Like all ponzis, u want to be in the game early. U also have no choice but to to be in the game. Because those who aren't are the ones who will suffer. We are talking abt the working and middle class, who will get screwed even more.

P/S They don't teach abt this game at UPSR.. 😆

Of course, the whole ponzi might collapse one day and u don't want to be last person holding the bag. In fact, last month I think there was real fear that the ponzi was collapsing, so that's why u have the sell everything moment. But CBs have shown that they won't let it fail, yet. I think they will succeed, at least for the next couple of years.

Quit to where?

Local Malaysian instis are ur normal suspects + private unit trust funds. Ppl like Epf and PNB always like to buy when foreign sell and when foreign comes back they sell.

Malaysian Retail at 23% is about the same levels in the past year or so, which is at a lower range. Historically I recall it's always been between 20-30%.

Fed is now buying ETF.. But not equity ETF at the moment. They are buying fixed income ETF.

Fed buys bonds and bond etf from banks and funds, creating new money out of thin air and handing it over to these institutions. Some of these money go to the equity market, which is a smaller market than the bond market.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Apr 18 2020, 11:01 AM

Nothing to do with muhyiddin.. A much greater being: Jerome Powell.