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 PROPERTY MARKET TO BE BADLY HIT IN 2018, Tekan the greedy sellers to the max!

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myhouse
post Nov 16 2017, 10:24 AM

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It is good that to purchase when the market is weak for new property, you think market will get worst in 5 yrs time or new land will grow over the period? Of course those buy for speculate will bear the cost...as in any business...there always P & L
limsc07
post Nov 16 2017, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(Jagalat @ Nov 16 2017, 12:21 AM)
Why not down to 100-200k if 300k is still not an affordable price? Why spelling 500k?
A Dr or chartered personal like him is assumed to have some way of deriving those numbers. If he really simply plucked some numbers to make up story and there's no different than chui sui talk.
Anyway, since his article has attracted attention, let's if he will present any data to defend his statement. Will see ...
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If property value difficult to go down then another possible scenario would be like Japan - Zombie economy for many years. The actual value of our properties have diminished due to result of worldwide printing of many fiat money and very low interest rate by central bankers.

Slowly wait for our wages to catch up to afford by ppl.
icemanfx
post Nov 16 2017, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(myhouse @ Nov 16 2017, 09:20 AM)
If property crash 30%..bank all banks will be in trouble, country in trouble....think savings safe?
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Residential property constituted 25% to 30% of most banks loan portfolio. Banks don't revalue collaterals unless borrower defaulted.

Property price dropped by 30% won't crash the banking system unless many borrowers are subprime but bank will be more cautious in lending to residential e.g 70% margin of finance.

If many borrowers are subprime, many property price drop will be significantly more than 30%.

QUOTE(aspartame @ Nov 16 2017, 09:30 AM)
Transaction volume drop different from price drop.
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Volume drop could mean either less supply or less demand. Since over supply is a common knowledge, mean volume dropped is caused by less demand.

In market economy, over supply or less demand will follow by price drop. Likewise during the bull run, price follow demand rise.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 16 2017, 11:11 AM
landplus
post Nov 16 2017, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE
According to Napic data, residential property transactions have been dropping over the last 2 years. Check out the following links for the latest Napic residential property transactions (charts):

https://www.land.plus/malaysia/kuala-lumpur
https://www.land.plus/malaysia/selangor
https://www.land.plus/malaysia/penang
https://www.land.plus/malaysia/johor

QUOTE(aspartame @ Nov 16 2017, 09:30 AM)
Transaction volume drop different from price drop.
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Transactions drop is usually correlated to prices drop too ... it means less ppl are willing to buy the asking prices, therefore eventually result in prices drop. From my observation, most property prices have dropped slightly from its 2013 high!

This post has been edited by landplus: Nov 16 2017, 11:26 AM
aspartame
post Nov 16 2017, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 16 2017, 10:59 AM)
Residential property constituted 25% to 30% of most banks loan portfolio. Banks don't revalue collaterals unless borrower defaulted.

Property price dropped by 30% won't crash the banking system unless many borrowers are subprime but bank will be more cautious in lending to residential e.g 70% margin of finance.

If many borrowers are subprime, many property price drop will be significantly more than 30%.
Volume drop could mean either less supply or less demand. Since over supply is a common knowledge, mean volume dropped is caused by less demand.

In market economy, over supply or less demand will follow by price drop. Likewise during the bull run, price follow demand rise.
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Will follow by price drop? Very strong words.

QUOTE(landplus @ Nov 16 2017, 11:25 AM)
Transactions drop is usually correlated to prices drop too ... it means less ppl are willing to buy the asking prices, therefore eventually result in prices drop. From my observation, most property prices have dropped slightly from its 2013 high!
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Keywords: Eventually............but not yet.
Keywords: dropped slightly.......where is the big drop? I am waiting for it and it just ain't coming...
icemanfx
post Nov 16 2017, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Nov 16 2017, 11:57 AM)
Will follow by price drop? Very strong words.
Keywords: Eventually............but not yet.
Keywords: dropped slightly.......where is the big drop? I am waiting for it and it just ain't coming...
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Price rise during bull run showed property price is not inelastic. Hence, it is natural for price to drop with demand.

In practice, holding unsold property incur cost and loan repayment is a burden. It would be a relief to off load early at lower price.

brianccg
post Nov 16 2017, 02:10 PM

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Buy what you can afford.
BEANCOUNTER
post Nov 16 2017, 02:24 PM

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I believe gov or state gov need to play an important role as well....by controlling the supply......

the way DBKL dishes out building permits.....I think they have totally different idea and foresight.
icemanfx
post Nov 16 2017, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(BEANCOUNTER @ Nov 16 2017, 02:24 PM)
I believe gov or state gov need to play an important role as well....by controlling the supply......

the way DBKL dishes out building permits.....I think they have totally different idea and foresight.
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Development charge, assessment, etc are dbkl income. It is dbkl interest to have more development.

In market economy, best regulated by the market itself.

Developer won't be building more if investors didn't snap up. Current oversupply could and should only blame on greedy developers and investors.

BEANCOUNTER
post Nov 16 2017, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 16 2017, 02:44 PM)
Development charge, assessment, etc are dbkl income. It is dbkl interest to have more development.

In market economy, best regulated by the market itself.

Developer won't be building more if investors didn't snap up. Current oversupply could and should only blame on greedy developers and investors.
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I disagree.......

gov ultimately have responsibility to people........but I guess the kick back is too hard to ignore.......

we are not a full democratic nation yet...........
Nikmon
post Nov 16 2017, 02:57 PM

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overall residential transaction volume drop 23%

overall residential transaction value drop 18%

good or bad.
onyxsis_16
post Nov 16 2017, 03:10 PM

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Okay, so from all of the discussions above, may i know is it a good time/bad time to buy a property now for a first time buyer?
remora
post Nov 16 2017, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(onyxsis_16 @ Nov 16 2017, 03:10 PM)
Okay, so from all of the discussions above, may i know is it a good time/bad time to buy a property now for a first time buyer?
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My personal opinion says that the current property market is already favourable to buyer who intends to occupy their purchase. There are plenty of new development offering low entry cost

If you really want to wait to market to drop, there need to be a major recession that affects investor's holding power.
A.B.D.
post Nov 16 2017, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(onyxsis_16 @ Nov 16 2017, 03:10 PM)
Okay, so from all of the discussions above, may i know is it a good time/bad time to buy a property now for a first time buyer?
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anytime is a good time depending on the property you are buying
icemanfx
post Nov 16 2017, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(BEANCOUNTER @ Nov 16 2017, 02:56 PM)
I disagree.......

gov ultimately have responsibility to people........but I guess the kick back is too hard to ignore.......

we are not a full democratic nation yet...........
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For most gomen, providing affordable housing is more important than ensuring profits for property investors.

BEANCOUNTER
post Nov 16 2017, 05:17 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 16 2017, 04:18 PM)
For most gomen, providing affordable housing is more important than ensuring profits for property investors.
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which gov will ensure property investors profit greater than affordable housing?
ManutdGiggs
post Nov 16 2017, 05:31 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 16 2017, 04:18 PM)
For most gomen, providing affordable housing is more important than ensuring profits for property investors.
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Karen1995
post Nov 16 2017, 05:40 PM

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Bina Puri Holdings Executive Director Datuk Matthew Tee believes that the property market has bottomed out, and that the current slump is ‘self-made’.
icemanfx
post Nov 16 2017, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(Karen1995 @ Nov 16 2017, 05:40 PM)
Bina Puri Holdings Executive Director Datuk Matthew Tee believes that the property market has bottomed out, and that the current slump is ‘self-made’.
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"Self made" by developer or property investor?

brother love
post Nov 16 2017, 05:55 PM

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Words frum dvloper, of course..the reality only those on the ground and involved in tis industry knws..worst is yet to come

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