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 PROPERTY MARKET TO BE BADLY HIT IN 2018, Tekan the greedy sellers to the max!

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icemanfx
post Nov 15 2017, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 15 2017, 08:37 PM)
Don't know how long already said properties market down down..

I don't see real bloodbath yet devil.gif

Price dropped 30%.. Then we talk..
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QUOTE(BEANCOUNTER @ Nov 15 2017, 09:32 PM)
Some already dropped 30% or more from peak.....

But no enough to create a bloodbath on the street.
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Property is illiquid, price takes years to bottom. You may get more than what you wish after bank interest rate rise.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 15 2017, 09:40 PM
JimmyJimmy
post Nov 15 2017, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(propertybuddy @ Nov 14 2017, 06:48 PM)
This is why Gameplan is so important. Understanding the risk of doing so, what to buy, How to buy, when to buy, Buying without proper gameplan can be deadly. If he hv the right plan, he probably only need 4 good ones instead of 9 bad ones. 4 would be sufficient to generate him a healthy 20k/mth passive income for retirement. Buying 9 bad one doesn’t make him better investor than someone who plan properly and buy 4 that suits his plan
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I can tell whos ur sifu from your writing hehe
limsc07
post Nov 15 2017, 09:58 PM

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QUOTE(Jagalat @ Nov 15 2017, 12:29 AM)
Just simply quote one statement to verify....

Wonder how does this Dr arrive to say property price from 500k to 300k?
Is there is statistical prediction model to derive until 300k? If the formula is a secret, then can share what the recipes are (jpph data? etc) and a graph to show a down trend pattern to 300k.... ?

This is just one of my many questions...
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I think there is no secret formula. Even many experts in USA could not forecast the coming of subprime morgage crisis in 2007. There is a tipping point and we don’t know where is the Point. Also many believe in Black Swan event by Nassim Taleb.

Many still can’t afford 300k properties even prices really drop to that level. The is a worldwide problem and many ppl also can’t afford to buy their own shelters.
aspartame
post Nov 15 2017, 10:19 PM

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QUOTE(BEANCOUNTER @ Nov 15 2017, 09:32 PM)
Some already dropped 30% or more from peak.....

But no enough to create a bloodbath on the street.
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What type of prop drop 30% so serious? Buy from developer is it? Generally, drop is 10% or less only. Some landed are constantly up. Talking about Klang Valley secondary market and only on transacted price, not peak asking to current asking lah.

if got nice development dropped 30% subsale transacted price excluding auction, pls let me know. I would like to buy.
kinnasai
post Nov 15 2017, 10:20 PM

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A say: There are plenty stocks in primary market still, slow & bad market…
B say: There are plenty developers building affordable house, especially along MRT…
C say: is RM300k-RM500k affordable? How to buy, house too expensive, malaysian cannot afford.
D say: let the price drop, then sapu, do not buy now. (*Means there are plenty reserve power is waiting to buy the estimated under cut subsale)
E say: Now all material cost increased, hardly the end product price reduced.
F say: When market crash, all price go below actual value.
Wah… challenging market… bet or no bet?

This post has been edited by kinnasai: Nov 15 2017, 10:21 PM
CK15
post Nov 15 2017, 10:30 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 15 2017, 09:39 PM)
Property is illiquid, price takes years to bottom. You may get more than what you wish after bank interest rate rise.
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Learn how to get 5% profit making properties. You won't repeat above statement again and again.

Some property up more than 30% between 1Q16 and 3Q17. BTW, the buyer is paying cash.
aspartame
post Nov 15 2017, 10:33 PM

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QUOTE(kinnasai @ Nov 15 2017, 10:20 PM)
A say: There are plenty stocks in primary market still, slow & bad market…
B say: There are plenty developers building affordable house, especially along MRT…
C say: is RM300k-RM500k affordable? How to buy, house too expensive, malaysian cannot afford.
D say: let the price drop, then sapu, do not buy now. (*Means there are plenty reserve power is waiting to buy the estimated under cut subsale)
E say: Now all material cost increased, hardly the end product price reduced.
F say: When market crash, all price go below actual value.
Wah… challenging market… bet or no bet?
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Small kid talks a lot. Char See....smile.gif
icemanfx
post Nov 15 2017, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Nov 15 2017, 10:30 PM)
Learn how to get 5% profit making properties. You won't repeat above statement again and again.

Some property up more than 30% between 1Q16 and 3Q17. BTW,  the buyer is paying cash.
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What about majority of property between 1q16 and 3q17?



This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 15 2017, 11:57 PM
cutemoney
post Nov 16 2017, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(David_77 @ Nov 15 2017, 01:56 PM)
But hor, if he manages to hold, in 7-10 years down the road, he will be laughing to the bank?
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Actually I am more interested in how can he borrow 9 mortgage loan?

Pain4UrsinZ
post Nov 16 2017, 12:14 AM

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don't think so. market is active with affordable house recently, especially these 2 years rumawip and Pr1ma, once it is done ready for moving in should be in year 2021. Flipper will suffer in year 2021, now should be able to hold with rental income.
cutemoney
post Nov 16 2017, 12:14 AM

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QUOTE(BEANCOUNTER @ Nov 15 2017, 09:32 PM)
Some already dropped 30% or more from peak.....

But no enough to create a bloodbath on the street.
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Dropped 30% ?!
Sure bo?
I still can’t found any subsale allow me marked up 30% (exclude those poor management like Scott garden).

Jagalat
post Nov 16 2017, 12:21 AM

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QUOTE(limsc07 @ Nov 15 2017, 10:58 PM)
I think there is no secret formula. Even many experts in USA could not forecast the coming of subprime morgage crisis in 2007. There is a tipping point and we don’t know where is the Point. Also many believe in Black Swan event by Nassim Taleb.

Many still can’t afford 300k properties even prices really drop to that level. The is a worldwide problem and many ppl also can’t afford to buy their own shelters.
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Why not down to 100-200k if 300k is still not an affordable price? Why spelling 500k?
A Dr or chartered personal like him is assumed to have some way of deriving those numbers. If he really simply plucked some numbers to make up story and there's no different than chui sui talk.
Anyway, since his article has attracted attention, let's if he will present any data to defend his statement. Will see ...


AskarPerang
post Nov 16 2017, 12:43 AM

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QUOTE(cutemoney @ Nov 16 2017, 12:14 AM)
Dropped 30% ?!
Sure bo?
I still can’t found any subsale allow me marked up 30% (exclude those poor management like Scott garden).
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Auction market plenty to choose from.
But still good located property no need to wait drop until 30%, people will take at 10-20% off asking subsale price.
And bad located property beyond 30% also nobody gonna go for it.


Here an example:




By the way, another unit available. Slightly higher price. Can wait for another round.


landplus
post Nov 16 2017, 03:55 AM

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QUOTE(mindful @ Nov 14 2017, 10:06 PM)
Property guru such as Faizul uses napic statistics a lot. It still shows growth which surprises me. Do u observe that is it the case?
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According to Napic data, residential property transactions have been dropping over the last 2 years. Check out the following links for the latest Napic residential property transactions (charts):

https://www.land.plus/malaysia/kuala-lumpur
https://www.land.plus/malaysia/selangor
https://www.land.plus/malaysia/penang
https://www.land.plus/malaysia/johor

This post has been edited by landplus: Nov 16 2017, 04:01 AM
landplus
post Nov 16 2017, 03:58 AM

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QUOTE(R o Y @ Nov 15 2017, 02:47 AM)
In 2013 he said we are "heading to a property bubble":

3 years later in 2016, he said:
http://property360online.com/scary-truth-affordability/

So if the market was "HEADING" in 2013....

and the market has "BURST" in 2016...

how come real estate prices only going to drop drastically 2 years later in 2018?

Shouldn't the market have gone thru a drastic price correction in 2016 - 2017?  hmm.gif

By the way, Bangsar Terrace houses are now 1.6m-2m depending on location and condition. So anyone who sold their bangsar house in 2013 would have missed out on about 25% capital appreciation over the past 5 years.
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The property bubble in Malaysia may have burst but i doubt the price will drop significantly due to the crash of the Ringgit, after all building material and salaries have increased due to inflation caused by our currency. So in US dollar terms, our real estate is actually very cheap now.

This post has been edited by landplus: Nov 16 2017, 03:58 AM
icemanfx
post Nov 16 2017, 05:31 AM

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QUOTE(limsc07 @ Nov 15 2017, 09:58 PM)
I think there is no secret formula. Even many experts in USA could not forecast the coming of subprime morgage crisis in 2007. There is a tipping point and we don’t know where is the Point. Also many believe in Black Swan event by Nassim Taleb.

Many still can’t afford 300k properties even prices really drop to that level. The is a worldwide problem and many ppl also can’t afford to buy their own shelters.
*
Before u.s subprime crisis 2008, there were a few warning e.g by Prof Robert J. Schiller but was ignored.

Property is illiquid, price takes years to bottom. Unlike stocks or commodity, doesn't has a tipping point as such.

QUOTE(cutemoney @ Nov 16 2017, 12:09 AM)
Actually I am more interested in how can he borrow 9 mortgage loan?
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How many of these investors are around? U.s subprime crisis 2008 was largely started by these flippers.

QUOTE(Pain4UrsinZ @ Nov 16 2017, 12:14 AM)
don't think so. market is active with affordable house recently, especially these 2 years rumawip and Pr1ma, once it is done ready for moving in should be in year 2021. Flipper will suffer in year 2021, now should be able to hold with rental income.
*
Provided can find tenant.

QUOTE(cutemoney @ Nov 16 2017, 12:14 AM)
Dropped 30% ?!
Sure bo?
I still can’t found any subsale allow me marked up 30% (exclude those poor management like Scott garden).
*
No vendor is willing to sell at below mv. Only those put effort could find below mv prize.

QUOTE(landplus @ Nov 16 2017, 03:58 AM)
The property bubble in Malaysia may have burst but i doubt the price will drop significantly due to the crash of the Ringgit, after all building material and salaries have increased due to inflation caused by our currency. So in US dollar terms, our real estate is actually very cheap now.
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If price could rise irrationally during bull run, price could similarly drop irrationally during bear crawl.

To those earned in RM, USD value is irrelevant.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 16 2017, 05:34 AM
ManutdGiggs
post Nov 16 2017, 05:39 AM

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http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...-other-experts/
nexona88
post Nov 16 2017, 09:04 AM

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QUOTE(BEANCOUNTER @ Nov 15 2017, 09:32 PM)
Some already dropped 30% or more from peak.....

But no enough to create a bloodbath on the street.
*
Oh really..
I guess that's must be overprice..

But yeah.. Not yet see bloodbath 😂
myhouse
post Nov 16 2017, 09:20 AM

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If property crash 30%..bank all banks will be in trouble, country in trouble....think savings safe?

This post has been edited by myhouse: Nov 16 2017, 09:21 AM
aspartame
post Nov 16 2017, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(landplus @ Nov 16 2017, 03:55 AM)
According to Napic data, residential property transactions have been dropping over the last 2 years. Check out the following links for the latest Napic residential property transactions (charts):

https://www.land.plus/malaysia/kuala-lumpur
https://www.land.plus/malaysia/selangor
https://www.land.plus/malaysia/penang
https://www.land.plus/malaysia/johor
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Transaction volume drop different from price drop.

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