BWC

Lowyat.NET forums

Lowyat.NET Kopitiam Garage Sales

Lowyat.NET Rules and Regulations FAQ Help Search Members

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Lowyat.NET -> Finance, Business and Investment House -> Stock Exchange

Bump Topic Add Reply RSS Feed

233 Pages « < 127 128 129 130 131 > » Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

BWC

views

TSBoon3	Aug 1 2020, 10:24 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2561
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 31 2020, 06:27 PM) this time, TP should be correct! First time ever. Epic! That's why it was strange the other day. AA reported its shyte results but AAX didn't. AA fell but AAX was trading pretty much unchanged at 0.095/0.10. It was a big SHORT on my paper trade book (buku 555 la) ... But anyway... TP zilo is a bit too evil from CIMB la... They could give chance sikit and say 0.005 la.... half sen also can mah.... Anyhow... according to AAX notes, they had applied for a 500 million Danajamin PRIHATIN loan... lifeline depend on the loan... but with such balance sheet... with hardly any asset... percentage of planes flying ( ) .... errr ..... errr........ and oh... they had returned one plane back to their lessor!!! epic... and according to the notes...my interpretation is... they want to return more.... WOW!! ini macam also can meh? return to lessor wo... The fuel hedges comparison... AAX remaining hedge is 3.459 million. AirAsia is 5.3 million barrel. Hmmm... AAX still got a lot of fuel hedges left!!! In AirAsia notes, its out of the 5.3 million, 3.1 million is due less than 1 year is carrying a 'paper' loss of 794 million. All AAX wrote is .... "As at 31 March 2020, outstanding number of barrels of Brent and fuel derivative contracts was 3,459,348 barrels" Which means, it's paper loss for the remaining hedges is gonna be huge! And then there is this article... https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/aax-...udited-net-loss Huge deviation!!! Really huge... Now back to the fuel hedges. Unlike AirAsia, did not write how much its fuel hedges losses were... All I see is.... Did AAX just classified its fuel hedges as CASH FLOW HEDGES???? ChAOoz ... err .... can help see? Am I wrong there.... and also this 'cash flow hedges' loss total is 457 million. How come this 457 million loss not included in AAX profit and loss...link to report I mean did AAX under reported its losses? ie Shouldn't AAX losses be 1 billion. anyway... like half bola.... give chance sikit to AAX la.... half sen TP lo... This post has been edited by Boon3: Aug 1 2020, 10:25 AM
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

AVFAN	Aug 1 2020, 11:03 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2562
20k VIP Club All Stars 24,448 posts Joined: Nov 2010	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 1 2020, 10:24 AM) anyway... like half bola.... give chance sikit to AAX la.... half sen TP lo... cimb reported that there is virtually no chance to secure any more funding...so, zero la. https://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/?p=192132
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 1 2020, 11:13 AM Show posts by this member only \| IPv6 \| Post #2563
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 1 2020, 11:03 AM) cimb reported that there is virtually no chance to secure any more funding...so, zero la. https://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/?p=192132 This from the link you just shared... QUOTE It also said there is no evidence of individual shareholders of AAX or AirAsia indicating willingness to top up equity. Ouuuch!! Half bola la u.... dun be so mean...
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

AVFAN	Aug 1 2020, 11:16 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2564
20k VIP Club All Stars 24,448 posts Joined: Nov 2010	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 1 2020, 11:13 AM) This from the link you just shared... Ouuuch!! Half bola la u.... dun be so mean... grave situation indeed. even global airlines, IATA are now saying no hope until 2024. how is AAX, AA going to last 4 more years? and the thought of MAS give u the shivers... https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...pected-12970756
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 1 2020, 12:46 PM Show posts by this member only \| IPv6 \| Post #2565
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 1 2020, 11:16 AM) grave situation indeed. even global airlines, IATA are now saying no hope until 2024. how is AAX, AA going to last 4 more years? and the thought of MAS give u the shivers... https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...pected-12970756 From AAX QR, pg 10... In connection with the above plans, the Group and the Company plan to operate a leaner fleet size which require the Group and the Company to return excess aircraft to the aircraft lessors. At present, the Group and the Company have successfully returned one aircraft and are in discussions with the other aircraft lessors to achieve the optimal fleet size. The Group and the Company are also in discussions with the aircraft lessors to reduce future lease rental rates. Further, the Group and the Company are also in discussion with maintenance service providers to reduce future maintenance costs. from Mchronicle... “AAX is now in a desperate attempt to grasp at all the straws it can find. We believe AAX has not been paying its lessors, maintenance providers and suppliers since 4Q19,” CGS-CIMB said. “Lessors are unable to do anything about this effective default of the operating lease contracts, as repossessing the planes may leave them looking in vain for replacement customers.” **** Returned one aircraft back!! Haven't been paying lessor.. 3 million barrel of oil hedges left... Err... 500 million loan macam not enough leh.. But still.... half sen la... cannot zilo la
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 3 2020, 09:57 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2566
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	simpan sini.... pbbank bookmark » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Average Down ... Obviously, if you had purchased a lousy stock and if you attempt to average down, you die for sure. Ok, how about the case of buying at the wrong price for a good company? Can average down save the bad poor investment? I will choose PBBank as an example. 1. I won't use the top most price. Just 25.00 will do. Now for obvious reason, assume I bought PBBank at 25.00. Now since this is a good 'fundamentally strong' company, I decided to average down la. PBBank pays dividends also... surely I won't die cow cow yes? So the ORIGINAL SIN IS BUY 1000 SHARES OF pbbANK AT 25.00 2. The strategy employed. Now obviously, since this test is based on back test data, I have to cheat a bit... The strategy is to buy ONLY 1,000 shares to average down. Let's be realistic here. it's 25,000 a pop for the original investment. any other average down purchases, increases my capital involvement exponentially... and I cannot cheat myself by saying I have UNLIMITED capital where I can average down forever and ever until I register a gain or recover all my initial losses (this way, also, I cannot cheat by say i averaged down at the lowest point with more shares, yes?) so every low of the stock cycle movement, I purchase 1,000 shares to average down. Fair? Ok, here we go... (* I yet to count atm honestly... just writing as I go) The chart and the average points... ORIGINAL SIN 25,000 May 2019 22,480 Oct 2019 19,080 Dec 2019 18,800 Feb 2020 17,700 Mar 2020 12,600 May 2020 15,200 Jun 2020 16,200 total purchases = 8,000 shares total invested = 147,060 * time to reflect here .. from 1,000 shares => 8,000 shares from 25,000 => 147,060 What did the average down strategy just did? The investment grew exponentially!!! Average cost = 147,080 / 8 = 18.38 PBBank reference price at today's opening is 17.00 at market value, these 8,000 shares is now worth 136,000 Current 'paper' loss = 11,080 (dun like the term 'paper loss' A loss is a loss. ) Now .... how much can the dividends help. (A bit of work here cos need to check the ex date and see which shares qualified for which dividends) PBBANK dividend of 0.37 went ex on March 2019. Original Sin of 1,000 shares qualified for it. (0.37x1=0.37) PBBANk next dividend of 0.33 went ex on 29 Aug 2019 Only 2,000 shares qualified for it. (0.33x2 = 0.66) PBBANK next dividend of 0.40 went ex on 12 March 2020. Only 6,000 shares qualified for it. (0.40x6 = 2.40) Total dividends received = 3.43 So paper loss = 11,080 dividend received = 3430 Therefore ... current loss = rm7,650 dump in extra 100k plus to average down and now still lose money!! ** after thoughts? this example clearly showed that average down did not help at all (despite PBBank being a top fundamentally company) Average down 8 times, meant increasing our investment 8 times... we need to address this issue, yes? we not into some fantasy game where we can average down and average down... we have $$$ limit la we can buy a good stock at a bad price. average down might not help us recover our initial mistake! Back to Maybank.... I am not an advisor... All I am suggesting is that one should address the issue if averaging down is a good idea or not... there is financial limitations involved... Maybank costs at least 7000 per 1,000 shares.... average down 8 times... you are dumping in another 56,000 or so... is it worth it? meanwhile... also address the issue of opportunity cost... what if this is not the best move for one's money? better chance elsewhere? just give all these a thought...
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

ChAOoz	Aug 3 2020, 11:42 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2567
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 3,495 posts Joined: Dec 2007	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 1 2020, 10:24 AM) First time ever. Epic! That's why it was strange the other day. AA reported its shyte results but AAX didn't. AA fell but AAX was trading pretty much unchanged at 0.095/0.10. It was a big SHORT on my paper trade book (buku 555 la) ... But anyway... TP zilo is a bit too evil from CIMB la... They could give chance sikit and say 0.005 la.... half sen also can mah.... Anyhow... according to AAX notes, they had applied for a 500 million Danajamin PRIHATIN loan... lifeline depend on the loan... but with such balance sheet... with hardly any asset... percentage of planes flying ( ) .... errr ..... errr........ and oh... they had returned one plane back to their lessor!!! epic... and according to the notes...my interpretation is... they want to return more.... WOW!! ini macam also can meh? return to lessor wo... The fuel hedges comparison... AAX remaining hedge is 3.459 million. AirAsia is 5.3 million barrel. Hmmm... AAX still got a lot of fuel hedges left!!! In AirAsia notes, its out of the 5.3 million, 3.1 million is due less than 1 year is carrying a 'paper' loss of 794 million. All AAX wrote is .... "As at 31 March 2020, outstanding number of barrels of Brent and fuel derivative contracts was 3,459,348 barrels" Which means, it's paper loss for the remaining hedges is gonna be huge! And then there is this article... https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/aax-...udited-net-loss Huge deviation!!! Really huge... Now back to the fuel hedges. Unlike AirAsia, did not write how much its fuel hedges losses were... All I see is.... Did AAX just classified its fuel hedges as CASH FLOW HEDGES???? ChAOoz ... err .... can help see? Am I wrong there.... and also this 'cash flow hedges' loss total is 457 million. How come this 457 million loss not included in AAX profit and loss...link to report I mean did AAX under reported its losses? ie Shouldn't AAX losses be 1 billion. anyway... like half bola.... give chance sikit to AAX la.... half sen TP lo... Hahaha financial engineering loh. It's not an operational loss but a one time "investment" loss. How they spin it, one thing is clear, AAX & AA financial is really bad. Not worth the debt for their current price.
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 3 2020, 11:53 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2568
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 3 2020, 11:42 AM) Hahaha financial engineering loh. It's not an operational loss but a one time "investment" loss. How they spin it, one thing is clear, AAX & AA financial is really bad. Not worth the debt for their current price. Yeah.. me very confused on this part (since not accountant mah) ... how come those loses not included in their actual p/l statement.... clearly their income statement is saying more than 1 billion in losses. here's another thing I have noticed... them brokerage reports... clearly the head of research is not checking the reports them analysts are spitting out... In the Harta report and in the Inari report... error is seen in the calculation of the TP.... Estimate eps X PE MUltiple also can be wrong.... and hardly anyone is noticing? Really? This is the Quality of the reports? And yeah.. market is so cow cow... no one bothers! LOL! The millennial bull run !
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

ChAOoz	Aug 3 2020, 12:12 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2569
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 3,495 posts Joined: Dec 2007	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 3 2020, 11:53 AM) Yeah.. me very confused on this part (since not accountant mah) ... how come those loses not included in their actual p/l statement.... clearly their income statement is saying more than 1 billion in losses. here's another thing I have noticed... them brokerage reports... clearly the head of research is not checking the reports them analysts are spitting out... In the Harta report and in the Inari report... error is seen in the calculation of the TP.... Estimate eps X PE MUltiple also can be wrong.... and hardly anyone is noticing? Really? This is the Quality of the reports? And yeah.. market is so cow cow... no one bothers! LOL! The millennial bull run ! You see it's a 1bil loss for the equity / shareholder. So it's really 1bil, but it's not realized yet, hence not operational. I guess the hedge contract is not close yet or something, maybe this will rebound and it become +500m (wishful thinking) hahah
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 3 2020, 12:17 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2570
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 3 2020, 12:12 PM) You see it's a 1bil loss for the equity / shareholder. So it's really 1bil, but it's not realized yet, hence not operational. I guess the hedge contract is not close yet or something, maybe this will rebound and it become +500m (wishful thinking) hahah I see.... anyway... that QR is for the period ending 31st March 2020. MCO still not yet jalan kereta ................
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 3 2020, 01:32 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2571
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 3 2020, 12:12 PM) You see it's a 1bil loss for the equity / shareholder. So it's really 1bil, but it's not realized yet, hence not operational. I guess the hedge contract is not close yet or something, maybe this will rebound and it become +500m (wishful thinking) hahah Anyway, just to show you the low quality of the reports.. Kenanga own words.. QUOTE Signs of higher ASP in the industry have prompted us to raise our ASP assumptions again. Players have raised ASPs again indicating continuing supernormal demand and acute shortages. Standing testimony to the increasingly strong prospects of the sector, analysts surveyed by Blomberg Consensus have over the last 5 months consistently upgraded the earnings forecasts for HARTA. Hence, we raised our FY21E/FY22E net profit by 25%/23%. TP is raised from RM18.16 to RM22.30 based on unchanged 43x CY21E EPS. Reiterate OP. CY21 EPS from their own table ... Their CY21E EPS on that table is 45.9 sen. Well 43x45.9 = 19.73 sen mah.... Just how did they get a TP of 22.30 sen?
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

ChAOoz	Aug 3 2020, 01:41 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2572
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 3,495 posts Joined: Dec 2007	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 3 2020, 01:32 PM) Anyway, just to show you the low quality of the reports.. Kenanga own words.. [/b] CY21 EPS from their own table ... Their CY21E EPS on that table is 45.9 sen. Well 43x45.9 = 19.73 sen mah.... Just how did they get a TP of 22.30 sen? They use Calendar Year EPS. You see it's slightly higher at 51.8 But i have never follow all those analyst guidance. It keep on changing, based on share price and sentiment, so really no value one. I still read all their reports tho, as some contain interviews and internal discussion with the company management or industry observation, those do hold some insight outsider won't get.
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 3 2020, 01:49 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2573
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 3 2020, 01:41 PM) They use Calendar Year EPS. You see it's slightly higher at 51.8 But i have never follow all those analyst guidance. It keep on changing, based on share price and sentiment, so really no value one. I still read all their reports tho, as some contain interviews and internal discussion with the company management or industry observation, those do hold some insight outsider won't get. Oh Calender year eps .... my bad but..... what a nice twist. Cos the fy21 net profit projected by them is 1528 million. If eps based on current nunber of shares of Harta (3.427Billion shares), then the eps should be only 44.5 sen. Still how did they get the Calender EPS of 51.8sen?
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 3 2020, 02:20 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2574
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 3 2020, 01:41 PM) They use Calendar Year EPS. You see it's slightly higher at 51.8 But i have never follow all those analyst guidance. It keep on changing, based on share price and sentiment, so really no value one. I still read all their reports tho, as some contain interviews and internal discussion with the company management or industry observation, those do hold some insight outsider won't get. this is their report... The CY21E eps of 51.8 only appeared on the table.... Why aren't they using the FY21E eps? trying to learn here harta.pdf ( 492k ) Number of downloads: 6
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 3 2020, 04:24 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2575
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	WOW!! So many stocks hitting limit up .....
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

anakMY	Aug 3 2020, 04:32 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2576
Regular Senior Member 1,450 posts Joined: Jul 2012	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 3 2020, 04:24 PM) WOW!! So many stocks hitting limit up ..... bro did u ride on the rising waves?
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 3 2020, 04:41 PM Show posts by this member only \| IPv6 \| Post #2577
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(anakMY @ Aug 3 2020, 04:32 PM) bro did u ride on the rising waves? Haha.. sill playing with spiders... Did not even get this one as suggested by yhtan post #2392
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

yhtan	Aug 3 2020, 05:01 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2578
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 8,650 posts Joined: Sep 2005 From: lolyat	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 3 2020, 04:41 PM) Haha.. sill playing with spiders... Did not even get this one as suggested by yhtan post #2392 Now a bit risky lor, cincai one company involve in doing facemask can goreng up 10-20% per day. But if u look at KLCI, it is dropping 31 points with bank stocks leading the drop. I already took most of my capital on those healthcare related stock and let the profit run. The market is just way too crazy and flush with liquidity.
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

TSBoon3	Aug 3 2020, 05:11 PM Show posts by this member only \| IPv6 \| Post #2579
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(yhtan @ Aug 3 2020, 05:01 PM) Now a bit risky lor, cincai one company involve in doing facemask can goreng up 10-20% per day. But if u look at KLCI, it is dropping 31 points with bank stocks leading the drop. I already took most of my capital on those healthcare related stock and let the profit run. The market is just way too crazy and flush with liquidity. Fuyoh! Stalker! No tag u also... I did trade it in my 555. In 55..stirred and shaken cow cow at 58 right after it announced it loses. So ya.. got spider trading in my 555 book la. I even got an entry of buy Pharma at 3.60. Lol. But yeah....whacking Wu Ying. What to do. Kiasi. The weakness in the banking sector is so crystal clear la. MBb trading in such a clear down trend.... Them millennial traders... crazy yo!
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

yhtan	Aug 3 2020, 05:18 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2580
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 8,650 posts Joined: Sep 2005 From: lolyat	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 3 2020, 05:11 PM) Fuyoh! Stalker! No tag u also... I did trade it in my 555. In 55..stirred and shaken cow cow at 58 right after it announced it loses. So ya.. got spider trading in my 555 book la. I even got an entry of buy Pharma at 3.60. Lol. But yeah....whacking Wu Ying. What to do. Kiasi. The weakness in the banking sector is so crystal clear la. MBb trading in such a clear down trend.... Them millennial traders... crazy yo! Aiya why buku 555, like this see no syiok liao. Last thursday when it move to 80 cents i was freak out, fast fast sell half first, and today it prove me wrong But well trading u must be discipline, take profit as certain portion. TBH those milennial traders are bunch of mad cow, my remisiers even told me account opening require 3-4 weeks to process I did some small trading on genm as well, bought at 2.29 and thought it will rebound to 2.40, mana tau today market so weak and drop down until 2.23, cut loss and move on. It clearly shown the market strength is not with my side. The reason i bought is because head and shoulder and my experience is it will rebound at this price range. » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Oh well i think move to plantation stocks better lah, i rather stay away from those crazy healthcare stock
Card PM	Report Top Like Quote Reply

« Next Oldest · Stock Exchange · Next Newest »

233 Pages « < 127 128 129 130 131 > » Top

Add Reply Options

Change to:

0.0179sec

0.18

6 queries

GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 25th November 2025 - 06:15 PM

All Rights Reserved © 2002- 2025 Vijandren Ramadass (~unite against racism~)

Removal Request

Powered by Invision Power Board © 2025 IPS, Inc.