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yhtan	Jul 14 2020, 10:59 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2381
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 8,650 posts Joined: Sep 2005 From: lolyat	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2020, 09:30 AM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « I saw you post the updated, updated posting on Superman by xxx https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyi...oon_Yew_Yin.jsp just for the record the link to his earlier post. https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyi...oon_Yew_Yin.jsp Screenshot of his 'latest' post.... He has now adjusted the EPS much, much lower. Only 40 sen. So EPS estimation has lowered from 90 sen to 40 sen. His EPS prediction has halved.. but then, apparently he got another trick up his sleeve........... For his 90 sen eps posting, he used the following... But the fella is crafty.... he no longer sells the wild cowboy profit assumption of CAGR of 15% PER MONTH for 9 consecutive....perhaps he realise how stupid his statement sounded... First, using all the yada yada notes from the breifing, he assumes the 2020 Q4 profit to be 410 million. So he saying the 2020 quarterly profit will go from 24.7 million (Q1) to 30.1 million (Q2) to 71 miliom (Q3) to his estimate profit of 410 million (Q4). So he is saying that Superman Q-Q profit is to jump only around 570%. Okay.... whether true or utter BS ... the bottomline is the BAR has been set very, very high..... next is showtime.... this is where the magic is... LOL!. How nicely put that he say he wants to be safe and conservative when he really flashed the magic earlier... LOL! Fist his p/e 25 my current target price is rm15.00 is wrong. Cos the eps he used was 40 sen. The target price should be 25x40 = rm10.00. Typo i guess. hehe. But that is not important... Anyway, what he does he uses that 410 million he magically got, he then do the simplistic (safe and conservative mah - no longer 15% compounding per month nonsense) 410x4 = a profit estimate of 1640 million. or an eps of 121 sen. And then he uses more magic... the PE multiple is no longer the same as his last post. From a PE multiple of 15 and 20, he has now changed it to a pe 20 and pe 25. Which he utterly CONTRADICTS HIS CLAIM OF SAFER AND MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH.... kekeke... which ultimately he changed the estimated eps.... from 90 sen to 121 sen, he changed the PE multiplier he used earlier... Safe and conservative..... what a farking joke. But anyway, as you can see, all road leads to the next QR profit report. This xxx is saying profit will jump 570% to 410 million. Profits to increase close to 6 times! This is a very high bar set..... Very easy for Superman to miss the so called estimates......................................... wah so long how to read Very simple for me only, currently Supermax market cap 24bil, PE 20 meaning the company has to earn 2bil per year, which mean 500mil per quarter. U tell me the company is able to generate this much forever? Supermax has mixture of OEM and OBM business punya, OBM has highest margin. Look out for the glove supplier stock like Luxchem, Esceram etc. This post has been edited by yhtan: Jul 14 2020, 11:01 AM
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 11:06 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2382
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(yhtan @ Jul 14 2020, 10:59 AM) wah so long how to read Very simple for me only, currently Supermax market cap 24bil, PE 20 meaning the company has to earn 2bil per year, which mean 500mil per quarter. U tell me the company is able to generate this much forever? Supermax has mixture of OEM and OBM business punya, OBM has highest margin. Look out for the glove supplier stock like Luxchem, Esceram etc. I always like to amuse myself by making things long, long..... cannot meh? I like to see how he try to bruff his readers by increasing his eps estimates and increases his pe multiples... which he tries to hide by declaring a safe and conservative approach. ESC does the glove mold right? Well TG is probably a potential big customer with TG increasing its plants and lines... This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 14 2020, 11:06 AM
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yhtan	Jul 14 2020, 11:13 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2383
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 8,650 posts Joined: Sep 2005 From: lolyat	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2020, 11:06 AM) I always like to amuse myself by making things long, long..... cannot meh? I like to see how he try to bruff his readers by increasing his eps estimates and increases his pe multiples... which he tries to hide by declaring a safe and conservative approach. ESC does the glove mold right? Well TG is probably a potential big customer with TG increasing its plants and lines... He always post good good figure by simple calculations, fact is the business has mixture of it and has different profit margin, the boss could have give the staff a big fat 1 year bonus to reward them as well. The profit might not be optimistic like he mention based on his past posting. Yes ESC do the glove mold, the top 4 already purchase land and to expand, with this catalyst it will push the price up, for me the risk is low compare to glove stock and the reward is much more lucrative than glove stock. This is what a trader should look at it. I called it tumpang the tide and sail with it
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 11:20 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2384
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(yhtan @ Jul 14 2020, 11:13 AM) Yes ESC do the glove mold, the top 4 already purchase land and to expand, with this catalyst it will push the price up, for me the risk is low compare to glove stock and the reward is much more lucrative than glove stock. This is what a trader should look at it. I called it tumpang the tide and sail with it Market turning cowboi huh.....
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yhtan	Jul 14 2020, 11:24 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2385
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 8,650 posts Joined: Sep 2005 From: lolyat	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2020, 11:20 AM) Market turning cowboi huh..... Ride with it and analyze it yourself, most importantly know when u need to run
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billy_overheat	Jul 14 2020, 11:37 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2386
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 3,373 posts Joined: Nov 2008	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2020, 11:20 AM) Market turning cowboi huh..... the trend is strong for almost all the glove counters, did you re-enter?
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 11:41 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2387
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Jul 14 2020, 11:37 AM) the trend is strong for almost all the glove counters, did you re-enter? I already answered few times.... my answer is NO. Made my profit already. Happy la.... let others cari makan la...... So I am sitting on my fat ass doing nothing but some piss posting on abc soup like.... AA, TTB, KYY ... cannot meh?
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yhtan	Jul 14 2020, 11:55 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2388
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 8,650 posts Joined: Sep 2005 From: lolyat	QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Jul 14 2020, 11:37 AM) the trend is strong for almost all the glove counters, did you re-enter? ah boon very kiasi one, i doubt he will enter
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 11:59 AM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2389
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(yhtan @ Jul 14 2020, 11:55 AM) ah boon very kiasi one, i doubt he will enter Kena char Big time!!!
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AVFAN	Jul 14 2020, 12:19 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2390
20k VIP Club All Stars 24,449 posts Joined: Nov 2010	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2020, 10:48 AM) ps... if you ever have the time to indulge in some fun past.... ( cos I realise I forgot that one of biggest funking post was on XingQuan! ) post #529 dated Jan 2016. LOL! XingQuan (XQ) wanted to do a 50 million rights issue when XQ claimed it has 900 million cash on hand... post #534 'His' reasons for buying XQ! LOL! Anyway, XQ continued to fall... and by Aug 2019, XQ was delisted something to remember!
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 12:22 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2391
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 14 2020, 12:19 PM) something to remember! there's a lot of stuff out there.... just got to search for it....
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 12:28 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2392
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(yhtan @ Jul 14 2020, 11:55 AM) ah boon very kiasi one, i doubt he will enter nah... see at least I got go see... (if not ... next time kena char lagi big. Bigger pix! of course ... some notti one will easy shout out ... Oiii.... cup and handle laa..... cannot see cup? cannt see handle meh? buta ka? ... but.... the cup area.... it's a bit too wide.... too long.... ok then the current one... and looks like the company is returning back to profitability nicely... 4 quarters of improvement (although most recent quarter, the profits very small..) how? whack one lorry load or five lorry load? This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 14 2020, 12:31 PM
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yhtan	Jul 14 2020, 12:30 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2393
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 8,650 posts Joined: Sep 2005 From: lolyat	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2020, 12:28 PM) nah... see at least I got go see... (if not ... next time kena char lagi big. Bigger pix! of course ... some notti one will easy shout out ... Oiii.... cup and handle laa..... cannot see cup? cannt see handle meh? buta ka? ... but.... the cup area.... it's a bit too wide.... too long.... ok then the current one... and looks like the company is returning back to profitability nicely... 4 quarters of improvement (although most recent quarter, the profits very small..) how? whack one lorry load or five lorry load? alamak kena ah boon char balik So u buy one whole lorry load kah
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 12:32 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2394
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(yhtan @ Jul 14 2020, 12:30 PM) alamak kena ah boon char balik So u buy one whole lorry load kah the current chart I did not load la... (you no read my posting nicely one ) the current chart... I very kiasi one....
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billy_overheat	Jul 14 2020, 12:36 PM Show posts by this member only \| IPv6 \| Post #2395
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 3,373 posts Joined: Nov 2008	Seeing two of you char Lai char qu Looking at the current ATR of the glove counters, I'm kiasi too. Sit diam diam eat super ring and popcorn enough.
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 12:39 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2396
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Jul 14 2020, 12:36 PM) Seeing two of you char Lai char qu Looking at the current ATR of the glove counters, I'm kiasi too. Sit diam diam eat super ring and popcorn enough. Two words...... Dun Jeles
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 12:48 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2397
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	A .... » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Rosak one ... » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « June 2, 2020 ... I do have to admit the euphoria got to me most of the yesterday.... decided to do a bigger scan on the sector later in the afternoon and realised that it was time that I got off me sitting on my ass .... yes, there were a couple of signs and the obvious one of course was too fast, too furious, too soon... if that was the only factor alone, I probably let it slide.. and the other couple reason was the gravy train was grinding to a stop and of course there were some signs of distribution ... classical signs of climax in a rally..... but the main one was I was missing out the eruption on the top (pun intended hahaha) that eruption.... was the nail in the coffin ... imo.... that the climax is near and in such situations, it has proven time and time and time again that the best course of action is that the stocks should be sold.... without hesitation. ps... just sharing the couple of things that I wrote in my notes.... 1. in a frenzy, valuation is just a foot note. It is what it is. If based on valuation alone, a trader is most likely to leave a huge chunk of profit on the table. 2. in terms of risk, there isn't much really IF and IF one got the buying in correct. The right buying solves most of the problem. It still held true here. 3. WAITING. waiting again is always crucial. Patience is really important for one to sit tight and do nothing. Never sell JUST BECAUSE there is a profit to take. That is always the worst thing to do. 4. in a sell off, there is always good profit to be made. All is needed is one good trade. Find it and sit on it. And yes, look for the sexiest story that can be told in the sell off. If it ain't sexy to me, it won't be sexy for others... all is needed is one good trade. cheers B ... C .. » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « WTF was I talking on 2 Jun? So Kias i whatever happen to the 'Big money is in the sitting'...... duh! This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 14 2020, 12:52 PM
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yhtan	Jul 14 2020, 01:04 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2398
Look at all my stars!! Senior Member 8,650 posts Joined: Sep 2005 From: lolyat	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2020, 12:48 PM) A .... » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Rosak one ... » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « June 2, 2020 ... I do have to admit the euphoria got to me most of the yesterday.... decided to do a bigger scan on the sector later in the afternoon and realised that it was time that I got off me sitting on my ass .... yes, there were a couple of signs and the obvious one of course was too fast, too furious, too soon... if that was the only factor alone, I probably let it slide.. and the other couple reason was the gravy train was grinding to a stop and of course there were some signs of distribution ... classical signs of climax in a rally..... but the main one was I was missing out the eruption on the top (pun intended hahaha) that eruption.... was the nail in the coffin ... imo.... that the climax is near and in such situations, it has proven time and time and time again that the best course of action is that the stocks should be sold.... without hesitation. ps... just sharing the couple of things that I wrote in my notes.... 1. in a frenzy, valuation is just a foot note. It is what it is. If based on valuation alone, a trader is most likely to leave a huge chunk of profit on the table. 2. in terms of risk, there isn't much really IF and IF one got the buying in correct. The right buying solves most of the problem. It still held true here. 3. WAITING. waiting again is always crucial. Patience is really important for one to sit tight and do nothing. Never sell JUST BECAUSE there is a profit to take. That is always the worst thing to do. 4. in a sell off, there is always good profit to be made. All is needed is one good trade. Find it and sit on it. And yes, look for the sexiest story that can be told in the sell off. If it ain't sexy to me, it won't be sexy for others... all is needed is one good trade. cheers B ... C .. » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « WTF was I talking on 2 Jun? So Kias i whatever happen to the 'Big money is in the sitting'...... duh! U did right to take profit when consolidation on Jun'20, i think the main problem is u getting carry away by previous trade, a new trade is a chapter. Stop thinking it and move forward But when the breakout happen on 3rd July, i went in at 9.43 and i set my cut loss point at RM9.30, so my risk is about 1.5% (RM0.13) and the reward is huge. Basically trading is about probability and try to minimize your loss as low as possible. Another trade i did was JF Tech, 19 Jun breakout with volume, i bought in RM2.04, stop loss point at RM1.92, my risk is 6% but the reward is huge. The rest is history already. Trading is about probability after all.
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 01:05 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2399
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2020, 12:48 PM) A .... » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Rosak one ... » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « June 2, 2020 ... I do have to admit the euphoria got to me most of the yesterday.... decided to do a bigger scan on the sector later in the afternoon and realised that it was time that I got off me sitting on my ass .... yes, there were a couple of signs and the obvious one of course was too fast, too furious, too soon... if that was the only factor alone, I probably let it slide.. and the other couple reason was the gravy train was grinding to a stop and of course there were some signs of distribution ... classical signs of climax in a rally..... but the main one was I was missing out the eruption on the top (pun intended hahaha) that eruption.... was the nail in the coffin ... imo.... that the climax is near and in such situations, it has proven time and time and time again that the best course of action is that the stocks should be sold.... without hesitation. ps... just sharing the couple of things that I wrote in my notes.... 1. in a frenzy, valuation is just a foot note. It is what it is. If based on valuation alone, a trader is most likely to leave a huge chunk of profit on the table. 2. in terms of risk, there isn't much really IF and IF one got the buying in correct. The right buying solves most of the problem. It still held true here. 3. WAITING. waiting again is always crucial. Patience is really important for one to sit tight and do nothing. Never sell JUST BECAUSE there is a profit to take. That is always the worst thing to do. 4. in a sell off, there is always good profit to be made. All is needed is one good trade. Find it and sit on it. And yes, look for the sexiest story that can be told in the sell off. If it ain't sexy to me, it won't be sexy for others... all is needed is one good trade. cheers B ... C .. » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « WTF was I talking on 2 Jun? So Kias i whatever happen to the 'Big money is in the sitting'...... duh! review... ok.. got the buy reasoning spot one earlier but the sitting part... could have done it much better. the call that the sector looked as if a climax top might happen... well... it did ... the sector corrected... and on hindsight I discounted a few issues.... a lot of money was made.... I was not the only one... so the hunger for more was there.... the whole setup was there.... the same sexy story could be told sexier.... with the early qr reports... profit estimates got wilder and wilder.. the pandemic clearly wasn't going to end anytime soon, with US clearly had no idea on how to solve it...the opinions were so divided... some till this very day thinks that the C-19 is nothing a political propaganda to promote fear and to bring down Ducky... yeah... in sort.... I underestimated the market frenzy.... lol.. or maybe that tan bugger got it right by saying I am too kiasi... basket.... regrets? well .... it could have been totally unreal.... better bookmark and remember this posting. hehe86 liked this post
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TSBoon3	Jul 14 2020, 01:14 PM Show posts by this member only \| Post #2400
10k Club All Stars 15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008	QUOTE(yhtan @ Jul 14 2020, 01:04 PM) U did right to take profit when consolidation on Jun'20, i think the main problem is u getting carry away by previous trade, a new trade is a chapter. Stop thinking it and move forward But when the breakout happen on 3rd July, i went in at 9.43 and i set my cut loss point at RM9.30, so my risk is about 1.5% (RM0.13) and the reward is huge. Basically trading is about probability and try to minimize your loss as low as possible. Another trade i did was JF Tech, 19 Jun breakout with volume, i bought in RM2.04, stop loss point at RM1.92, my risk is 6% but the reward is huge. The rest is history already. Trading is about probability after all. Nope...It was just not quite my setup.... couldn't get a grasp of the potential profit, since everything is based on hype (imo) .... I am not good at these type of trades.. my past record showed... I am a firm believer in trading as per my setups. Trade what I am good at. there are always stocks that I just couldn't trade also... you know (at least I think you do) ... I do not like taking small positions... there are stocks ... for example Uchi... the buy/sell q.... it's just not ngam size for me... same with this one stock I was looking at .... Microln...it has just doubled in prices... I was contemplating a trade when it was less than 75 sen... but the bloody buy/sell bid turned me off..... LOL.... what to do.... it's gone.....
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