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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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TSicemanfx
post Sep 10 2017, 10:11 AM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Sep 10 2017, 09:58 AM)
Landed also got few active units in the auction market. But affordability issue because of higher prices, not everyone able to afford to bid if financial not strong enough.

Garden Residence at 1.05M. drop from 1.3M.
Cassia Garden at 729k. drop from 900k.

As for high rise. There are some rare units going at more than 50% cheaper. Maybe because of big size units not many interested. 
The Arc penthouse at 324k. First auction at 800k.
Cyberia duplex penthouse 2266 sqft sold at reserve price 406790 last week. First auction at 900k. And there is another active unit now 1919 sqft at 364.5k.

Investors aiming at cyberjaya to buy. Then auction market seems to be better choice to catch some good deals.
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With more oncoming supply, bank interest rate on up trend, tightening liquidity, believe this price dropped is only at the beginning and will last for quite a few years.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 10 2017, 11:01 AM
TSicemanfx
post Sep 11 2017, 06:06 PM

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Australian Banks Sitting on A$500 Billion of 'Liar Loans,' UBS Says
By Emily Cadman
September 11, 2017, 9:33 AM GMT+7

Here’s something else for policy makers to worry about as they attempt to engineer a soft landing in Australia’s property market.

The country’s lenders could be sitting on A$500 billion ($402 billion) of “liar loans,” or mortgages obtained on inaccurate financial information, according to an estimate from UBS Group AG.

A survey by the firm of 907 Australians who took out a mortgage in the last 12 months found only 67 percent stated their application was “completely factual and accurate,” down from 72 percent the previous year. The most common inaccuracies were overstating income and understating living expenses, the survey found.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-loans-ubs-says

During easy credit period 2011 to 2015, how much of similar liar loan was approved in the kangkong land?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 11 2017, 06:16 PM
TSicemanfx
post Sep 12 2017, 08:21 AM

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Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan warned potential buyers to be careful buying property in the world’s most expensive housing market, as moves by the Federal Reserve to unwind its balance sheet may shrink money supply.

Chan warned in June that Hong Kong’s property market is in a “dangerous situation” and vulnerable to a correction. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam describes housing as citizens’ No. 1 concern and recently set up a task force on increasing land supply as she tries to rein in ever-escalating prices.

“One has to be very careful if one really wants to buy a property in Hong Kong,” Chan said in an interview on the sidelines of a Belt & Road Forum in Hong Kong on Monday. Buyers need to assess their ability to service mortgages as interest rates normalize, he said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...isk-as-fed-acts

The kangkong land benefited from qe; similarly, will be effected by shrinking money supply.
TSicemanfx
post Sep 16 2017, 10:03 AM

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KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 13 ― Demand for prime office space rentals in Malaysia’s capital dropped again in the second quarter of this year, according property consultancy firm Knight Frank, making it the worst performing city in Asia Pacific.

Knight Frank’s latest quarterly Prime Office Rental Index showed office rental in Kuala Lumpur fell by 0.4 per cent compared to the first quarter report, for the same index, and is forecasted to continue to decrease.

http://m.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/a...in-asia-pacific

Jliew168
post Sep 16 2017, 12:31 PM

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Market is good.. Price already slow down and it is time to bbbbb lol
Dern
post Sep 16 2017, 12:43 PM

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not yet down the price ?
TSicemanfx
post Sep 16 2017, 12:44 PM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Sep 16 2017, 12:31 PM)
Market is good.. Price already slow down and it is time to bbbbb lol
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This is only the beginning of price down trend, wait til bank interest rate rise and liquidity squeeze.


TrialGone
post Sep 16 2017, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 16 2017, 10:03 AM)
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 13 ― Demand for prime office space rentals in Malaysia’s capital dropped again in the second quarter of this year, according property consultancy firm Knight Frank, making it the worst performing city in Asia Pacific.

Knight Frank’s latest quarterly Prime Office Rental Index showed office rental in Kuala Lumpur fell by 0.4 per cent compared to the first quarter report, for the same index, and is forecasted to continue to decrease.

http://m.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/a...in-asia-pacific
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Not surprising. A lot of O&G companies shutting down business. One of my friend got released cause no project incoming.
Jliew168
post Sep 16 2017, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 16 2017, 12:44 PM)
This is only the beginning of price down trend, wait til bank interest rate rise and liquidity squeeze.
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Subsale drop little... Good location like bandar utama almost no drop at all.. New launch sell cheaper than previous year but quality is reducing and super high density



Battlefield1942
post Sep 17 2017, 12:05 AM

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Wait till our local $$$ start to flow to US when the actual transfer happen. Sure our local $$$ will be reduce either by dropping in value or tighter credit from bank. Between investing in klang vs US. Which one will offer better return?
TSicemanfx
post Sep 21 2017, 02:50 AM

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The Fed did not change interest rates, which remain in a range of 1 to 1.25 percent, but the central bank says it still thinks growth will be strong enough to merit another rate hike by the end of the year and three more in 2018 to bring rates above 2 percent.

The Fed is trying to avoid disrupting this growth by outlining its plans clearly to avoid the type of uncertainty that tends to unnerve investors and rattle markets.The Fed already released a plan in June to start small, unloading $10 billion worth of assets a month and then scaling up gradually over time until it is shedding $50 billion a month, starting in October 2018.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp...m=.29293ef98afe

U.s fed qe had a profound effects on kangkong land property market in 2011 to 2014. Similarly, u.s fed qt is likely to have after shock on kangkong land property in next few years.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 21 2017, 02:51 AM
party
post Sep 21 2017, 04:05 AM

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QUOTE(Battlefield1942 @ Sep 17 2017, 12:05 AM)
Wait till our local $$$ start to flow to US when the actual transfer happen. Sure our local $$$ will be reduce either by dropping in value or tighter credit from bank. Between investing in klang vs US. Which one will offer better return?
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Wait again? I have been waiting till 2010 because of words like this. Now its 2017 and I (including mass populations) have missed how many boats?
v1n0d
post Sep 21 2017, 05:44 AM

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Went by Wangsa Walk on Monday night, I saw that some new developments are still selling at ridiculous prices. Wangsa 9 (next to Sri Rampai LRT) was being advertised starting at over RM900k! Clearly the drop in prices is mainly affecting the subsale market more as individual borrowers have less holding power than developers.
ALeUNe
post Sep 21 2017, 06:37 AM

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Bought 3 properties in 2017.
I am still waiting for the bubble to burst.
TSicemanfx
post Sep 21 2017, 07:48 AM

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QUOTE(ALeUNe @ Sep 21 2017, 06:37 AM)
Bought 3 properties in 2017.
I am still waiting for the bubble to burst.
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Property is illiquid, price takes years to bottom.

ALeUNe
post Sep 22 2017, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 21 2017, 07:48 AM)
Property is illiquid, price takes years to bottom.
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I look at bank lelong units old house.
Those terrace houses were sold MYR300K 10+ years ago, bank lelong it at starting price MYR500K+.

How to go bottom? Kek.
TSicemanfx
post Sep 22 2017, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(ALeUNe @ Sep 22 2017, 10:30 AM)
I look at bank lelong units old house.
Those terrace houses were sold MYR300K 10+ years ago, bank lelong it at starting price MYR500K+.

How to go bottom? Kek.
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Property appreciate at about inflation rate in the long term.

At 5% p.a. compounded for 10 years, $300k should worth about $488k. Taking 2011-2014 bull run into account, $500k is below market value and probably below real value of $300k 10+ years ago.

scorptim
post Sep 22 2017, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(ALeUNe @ Sep 22 2017, 10:30 AM)
I look at bank lelong units old house.
Those terrace houses were sold MYR300K 10+ years ago, bank lelong it at starting price MYR500K+.

How to go bottom? Kek.
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Kek, no one said the drop means property reset to 10 years ago prices. Check back the price last 2 years for the same terrace house it would be around 600k, now 500k is 20+% drop from last year, berapa banyak drop lagi u mau?
ALeUNe
post Sep 22 2017, 12:08 PM

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QUOTE(scorptim @ Sep 22 2017, 12:06 PM)
Kek, no one said the drop means property reset to 10 years ago prices. Check back the price last 2 years for the same terrace house it would be around 600k, now 500k is 20+% drop from last year, berapa banyak drop lagi u mau?
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I can get a new one at 600K in JB.
Any reason to get a 10+ years old house at 500K?

Is that a drop?
Kek. That's the kek I meant.
scorptim
post Sep 22 2017, 12:20 PM

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QUOTE(ALeUNe @ Sep 22 2017, 12:08 PM)
I can get a new one at 600K in JB.
Any reason to get a 10+ years old house at 500K?

Is that a drop?
Kek. That's the kek I meant.
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New one same area and same size or not first? Most of the new affordable properties are at shit locations la. For example subang area those houses selling 700-800k last few years, this year can get around 600k. New property in subang is at subang pinggiran which is almost at Shah Alam d. You'd rather take the new subang pinggiran instead of 10+ years subsale??

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