How much is developer price?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jun 1 2021, 03:19 PM

Personally I think may not be a burst of property bubble, more of like soft market and slowly declining for time being.
People have been saying property bubble burst since 2016? or 2017?
Now is also more like period of negative sentiment towards property.
If you ask 10 friends whether you should buy a property now, most likely 9 or 10 of them will say no.
But if you ask 10 friends the same question in 2010 - 2012, they will probably say buy.
Bubble burst is when there is a sharp decline (20-30% drop in price), within next 1-2 years, just like what happened in 1997. Or 2008 in the US.
In Malaysia, that is not really happening, yes market is soft now, increase in auction units, increase in overhang units, mismatch in supply/demand, but govt is trying very hard to prevent a sudden burst from happening. With various efforts such as HOC, RPGT waiver, and then indirectly OPR lowering effect, and etc.

Because if property bubble burst, the effect is very detrimental to the economy. Banks certainly don't want their equity to go down the drain. Home owners also don't want their price to crash.

Anyways, just my personal opinion and observation. Those who've been waiting and waiting, may probably be a good time to enter soon, if not now, if you're looking for one.
Market is indubitably correcting itself, definitely. Demand softens, prices are going down. Unending pandemic some more, causing job loss, revenue loss, and more. But if this pandemic doesn't go away, prices may further go down, but I personally doubt it would be a bubble burst way, more of like price correction ways over the course of 2-3 years.

Btw TS, just realized you have created this series of thread since early 2014?
My salutation to you for your effort trying to educate everyone property market is crashing since 2014, seems like what you have been preaching is almost coming after 7 years long wait.

This post has been edited by Michaelbyz23: Jun 7 2021, 09:23 PM

Just to add on:

Bubble burst is really hard to happen. A lot of people are one dimensional and only see things through their perception.

They think if economy is bad for me, it's bad for others. This is a hasty generalization.

Like now pandemic, there's a lot of naysayers, but there's also a lot of optimist. So the pessimist will just lose out to the optimist.

Also the guy who is old will probably want to keep his cash and not take risk, whereas someone in his twenties will take as much risk as he can.

What I'm trying to get at is, try to understand your bias and how you view the world as your mind can fool you into thinking world will end when it actually isn't.

This post has been edited by bangolufsen: Jun 7 2021, 09:35 PM

Yeap, agree with you.
There's no one size fits all. Everyone at different stage of life is experiencing the pandemic or economy at a different stage.
Some may bring in hundreds and millions from last year's stock market fiasco. Some may have lost it all. Some lost their job, some see their sales go up.
Just go with your own pace, and ride / leverage with the current situation, market sentiment, govt's action, and whatever available at the moment. If you are not a risk appetite person, then stick with fixed deposit, bond, or just put back your excess money into your flexi loan.
If you have more risk appetite and have prepared your cash that you can afford to lose, go and do due dilligence and hunt for the right asset

Sektor / Sector Kediaman/ Residential
Year Volume Value (RM Million)
2001 176,208 22,199.2
2002 162,269 21,136.7
2003 164,723 23,011.2
2004 195,243 29,295.8
2005 181,762 28,407.3
2006 182,555 29,446.9
2007 199,482 36,490.6
2008 216,702 41,304.0
2009 211,653 41,848.4
2010 226,874 50,654.2
2011 269,789 61,831.6
2012 272,669 67,762.2
2013 246,225 72,060.4
2014 247,251 82,059.6
2015 235,967 73,469.9
2016 203,064 65,574.43
2017 194,684 68,463.23
2018 197,385 68,748.26
2019 209,295 72,421.19


This post has been edited by XXXOOOXXXOOO: Jun 7 2021, 10:09 PM

Yeap, I am aware of NAPIC statistics. Have been reading their statistics lately, especially on the latest 2020 ones.
One of the indicator for bubble burst is sudden hike in property price, soaring demand within 1 year time or so.
Just like what is happening in the US for the past 3 months. Multiple bids for one property, and closed at 30% above market value, was the norm. This is due to hot money + decrease in supply due to shortage in timber, materials and labor, govt stimulus, and etc.

This post has been edited by Michaelbyz23: Jun 7 2021, 10:14 PM

but TS n many follower here telling different story

No right no wrong.
I do have bankers, friends, and investors around me also, been telling me property market would crash since 2016. But it is not happening yet, and my own belief is, may not be happening at all seeing how govt and bnm are trying their best to save this. Lot's of cushion here and there. No doubt price is correcting itself, but a sudden burst that lead to 30% or 40% loss in value, I don't think so. How i see is, there's been mismatch is supply/demand. Largely due to developer building the wrong types of products that market demands for.
Ps. Im not professional or financier, just my own opinion. Don't bomb me ya.

This post has been edited by Michaelbyz23: Jun 7 2021, 10:25 PM

Many 2016 2017 saying property always Up Up Up now all missing in action

Our property market base on Local purchasing power, so .....
Sub n New Project have 5-7 year cycle (prices adjustment)

With the increased price of property building material, doubt property price will drop anytime soon, unless those ambitious faraway project.

In short, the rich get richer, and the poor, will keep renting, fueling the rich's pocket.

own stay, buy what you like and stay

investment? what is your ability to hold? what is the diff between 1 year sharp decline and killing yourself slowly? you know when you bought wrong product, with wrong price, at wrong time or not...

Those who know how to make money, will know how to make money in any market.

Those who doesn't know, doesn't matter what other tell them because their money contribute to those who know how to earn from them =D

Just look at the lelong market, last year mainly speculators/bulk purchase "investors" who can't hold >> sub-urb project >> high density project >> mainstream high rise

Then this year finally more and more landed, lets see what we have for the rest of this year. =)

Finally the bubble will pop.

Fuck all y'all speculators who made so much noise whenever government tries to put legislation to control prices.

"Let the market decide", you said. Dont go crying to government for aid or bailout now when you have been enriching yourselves at everyone else's expense for decades.

Poorperly is illiquid, can't and will not price crash like stocks, commodities, btc, etc. it is economic naïve or ignorant to expect sharp price drop.

from planning, approval, construction to vped take a few years. if one knows where to look, it was not hard to forecast overhang a few years back.

poorperly bull run 2011-2014 was fueled by easy and cheap credit and ended when easy credit was no longer available. only those blinded by greed expect price keep rising.

as a economic student, i can't teach people how or where to make money but could advise where and how not to loss money.

contemporary history show who is more realistic. pig get fed, hog get slaughtered.

Investors make up a majority of residential property purchases in the Klang Valley in 2020 at 81.1%, and they are increasingly turning their attention towards sub-sale properties.

https://www.thesundaily.my/local/81-of-resi...stors-DJ7946137

As investors will need to either rent out or put on subsale market. could expect poorperly price to stay depressed.

Where’s Adrian wee now

I can see his anxiety from his video trying hard pulling follower.
Those who follow him from beginning will easily notice, the way he speech now are very different like he is panic, tired and begging for believer.

So when is the best time to buy ? Now consider good time?