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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(galkelly @ Apr 18 2017, 01:32 AM)
v20 and the price still havent drop...
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will not drop. price increment will slow down, but since when you actually see something in Malaysia drop price?

Petrol got drop?

Rice got drop?
ZenGTMM
post Apr 18 2017, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Apr 18 2017, 12:48 AM)
everyone needs a roof. they can't afford, they rent for life. value still there, just more for rental than sales. the demand will keep increasing, even if locals don't rent, foreigners will, as the country bring in more foreigners, they will replace the poor locals moving to Pr1ma and rent the units these folks left.

houses aren't being built as fast as people moving into the big cities. there will still be shortage of houses.

and what you are encouraging here is take bigger risk for better returns than working a full time job.

i mean if it does u well, good on you, i would not advise people with little knowledge on investment to participate. even mutual funds aren't guaranteed. but sure if it works for you good on you. i would put some disclaimer about the cons & risks too if i were a responsible poster.

unless ur an agent.
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Nope. What I am saying is diversify your funds to grow faster than the inflation rate.
I have shown how to get consistent 15% return a year in mutual funds. U will need to target growth orientated funds compared to balanced or fixed income funds. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, so stick to reliable ones. Public Mutual, Kenanga are the 2 firms I invest in. Nothing is guaranteed in life, not even ur job, nor your life.

pros and cons, its up to individual investors to read and research up. A simple rule is the higher the return, the more riskier it is.

QUOTE(advocado @ Apr 18 2017, 01:07 AM)
1.The slowdown of foreign workers just temporary, wait until the heat cool off. it's a minister's cash cow, no way they will let the milk stop flowing.
generally you see more blue collars, which will fill in the void for the low end properties as local hardcore poor move into Pr1ma and other cheaper housing. they won't buy, but they will rent, so the value will still be relevant, as for low end properties people aim for rental gains rather than sales.

locals that aren't bottom 10% will still look for decent properties, and since land is limited, so are their choices even if new properties are being built, still cannot cope with influx of folks moving from other states.

2.Most are, look at CNY & Hari Raya, many folks no longer balik kampung coz whole family including young & old already moved to KL. as small town jobs getting lesser, you expect more people moving into bigger cities. even Penang has lost lots of job opportunities and many are moving to KL. and don't forget, Sabah & Sarawak, many younger people are moving here too. just my place there's quite a few Q plated cars. don't think they plan to move back, due to the place being underdeveloped, and the recent political tension between Indonesia/Phillipines, and also China military vessels. if war were to break out, Sabah & Sarawak will be the main battlefield. so yes, more people will move to bigger cities, and i mean KL or JB.

older people with family may stay in Seremban work in KL, but younger ones won't.

3.Mostly tech companies in big cities are affected, this in turn snowball down to downstream, many operates in smaller town. with operation cost rise with inflation/removed subsidies/increased minimum wage/increased material cost, many business are facing hard times right now, and with smaller town companies, their market is smaller, as such they won't be able to hold too long. manufacturing requires close to port & to clients, if you are in rural place where transportation is a problem, even with cheap operation cost no one will move there, unless China builds a highspeed rail connecting these places. Plantation, maybe, who's willing to work there if not foreigners?

4.Hardcore poor can't afford anything. They #RentForLife.
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We can forget about hardcore poor. They wont even be able to pay for their rent consistently, so they are out of our target market equation.
The one fuelling this property growth and rent yield is the fresh grad to below 30yo crowd. This is the crowd that wants to stay in the city, enjoy nightlife, after work activities. The urban crowd. They are willing to pay more for rental compared to a 30yo++ who is looking for a permanent property to settle down.
sheahann
post Apr 18 2017, 11:26 AM

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Now so many project from government 200-300k ..
even developer launch project alot below 500k already..
whoever bought prop to flip during property rush 2013-2017 need to keep their property for long time.. by the time wanna sell also OLD already as developer keep on building new condo ..

those bought before property rush already make money. those trapped good luck ..
TSicemanfx
post Apr 18 2017, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Apr 18 2017, 11:01 AM)
will not drop. price increment will slow down, but since when you actually see something in Malaysia drop price?

Petrol got drop?

Rice got drop?
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In the long term, kv property price increase at about inflation rate. However, drastic property price from in 2011 to 2014 was largely speculative. As income didn't rise inline or faster than home price, it is unsustainable. Property price drop from foreclosure sale.

SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 11:45 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 18 2017, 11:39 AM)
In the long term, kv property price increase at about inflation rate. However, drastic property price from in 2011 to 2014 was largely speculative. As income didn't rise inline or faster than home price, it is unsustainable. Property price drop from foreclosure sale.
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i'm sorry, salary increment barely caught up with inflation, so in no way salary could catch up with property price increment even under non-speculative environment.

i already said many times, ask urself where ur annual increment come from? from the sky? No. from consumers a.k.a ur own pocket.

you get rm100 increment, but you never realize next year you have to spend rm150 more on your living cost because business will need to increase their price to cover your increased wage, and they will always put a margin to cushion their risk, so end up price increase more than ur salary.

this is how capitalize works. rich gets richer, poor gets poorer. sure there will be rare cases that people rose to success from nothing, but it's like Winning Toto. chances of hitting the jackpot are low.

Property price will never fall. Time to wake up.

The longer the wait the more u end up paying and less quality house you get. which means all these years of hard work meant nothing.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(sheahann @ Apr 18 2017, 11:26 AM)
Now so many project from government 200-300k ..
even developer launch project alot below 500k already..
whoever bought prop to flip during property rush 2013-2017 need to keep their property for long time.. by the time wanna sell also OLD already as developer keep on building new condo ..

those bought before property rush already make money. those trapped good luck ..
*
hows the quality of these "Low Cost" units? i'm sure to lower the profit margin they have to try really hard to cut cost.

there will be 1st batch of people not realizing this, it will take few years before major problems on these cheap units start to show, by that time, people would realize the mistake they made by choosing cheaper option.
TSicemanfx
post Apr 18 2017, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Apr 18 2017, 11:45 AM)
i'm sorry, salary increment barely caught up with inflation, so in no way salary could catch up with property price increment even under non-speculative environment.

i already said many times, ask urself where ur annual increment come from? from the sky? No. from consumers a.k.a ur own pocket.

you get rm100 increment, but you never realize next year you have to spend rm150 more on your living cost because business will need to increase their price to cover your increased wage, and they will always put a margin to cushion their risk, so end up price increase more than ur salary.

this is how capitalize works. rich gets richer, poor gets poorer. sure there will be rare cases that people rose to success from nothing, but it's like Winning Toto. chances of hitting the jackpot are low.

Property price will never fall. Time to wake up.

The longer the wait the more u end up paying and less quality house you get. which means all these years of hard work meant nothing.
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Property price drop is not unprecedented e.g Singapore, Hong Kong, USA, Japan, etc.

Unlike consumer items, most bought property with borrowing. Those bought to flip need to service bank interest monthly. Hence, foreclosure and price drop is a possibility.
TSicemanfx
post Apr 19 2017, 02:53 PM

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http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...-remain-steady/

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...YgfEbO6VAkm3.99

Kv property is on downtrend for eight consecutive quarters. If current market sentiment persists, downtrend is to continue and likely to accelerate.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 19 2017, 02:55 PM
galkelly
post Apr 20 2017, 01:00 AM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Apr 18 2017, 11:46 AM)
hows the quality of these "Low Cost" units? i'm sure to lower the profit margin they have to try really hard to cut cost.

there will be 1st batch of people not realizing this, it will take few years before major problems on these cheap units start to show, by that time, people would realize the mistake they made by choosing cheaper option.
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beggar cant be choosy, whatever is cheap now will sapu...
AyamBannedTwice
post Apr 20 2017, 01:06 AM

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Last weekend i pay a visit to 2 well known project in Bangi and Kajang
Both already completed but the sales rate booommm!! Less than 50%
Even worse for the bangi project.. can see in the chart less than 10 unit got buyer
heavensea
post Apr 20 2017, 01:47 AM

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http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...volume-in-2016/

wait die only?
riezzien
post Apr 20 2017, 05:50 AM

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QUOTE(AyamBannedTwice @ Apr 20 2017, 01:06 AM)
Last weekend i pay a visit to 2 well known project in Bangi and Kajang
Both already completed but the sales rate booommm!! Less than 50%
Even worse for the bangi project.. can see in the chart less than 10 unit got buyer
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can share which bangi project?
AyamBannedTwice
post Apr 20 2017, 06:46 AM

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QUOTE(riezzien @ Apr 20 2017, 05:50 AM)
can share which bangi project?
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Near to ukm ktm
riezzien
post Apr 20 2017, 07:38 AM

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QUOTE(AyamBannedTwice @ Apr 20 2017, 06:46 AM)
Near to ukm ktm
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tiara imperio izzzit?
t3n
post Apr 20 2017, 07:54 AM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Apr 18 2017, 11:01 AM)
will not drop. price increment will slow down, but since when you actually see something in Malaysia drop price?

Petrol got drop?

Rice got drop?
*
kangkung got drop...
prody
post Apr 23 2017, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(podracerx1 @ Apr 22 2017, 01:03 PM)
According to Prestige Realty Sdn Bhd sales and leasing manager Chris Lee (who closed the deal) the seller who was moving to another area sold the semi-dee at RM2.4 million, lower than his initial asking price of RM2.8 million.

The previous owner had bought the semi-dee for about RM2.2 million seven years ago.

http://www.theedgeproperty.com.my/content/...ampang-selangor

The appreciation is less than 2% p.a compounded, less than bank fd rate. it seems landed property may not be a hedge to inflation.
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Yeah, property is not a hedge for inflation if you buy it at inflated prices.
kurtkob78
post Apr 23 2017, 11:20 AM

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high rise with price of more than 500k is overpriced property. sure loss
coolstore
post Apr 23 2017, 11:40 AM

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what bank lelong website(s) available?
zerorating
post Apr 23 2017, 11:47 AM

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QUOTE(coolstore @ Apr 23 2017, 11:40 AM)
what bank lelong website(s) available?
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https://www.ngchanmau.com/
TSicemanfx
post Apr 27 2017, 03:51 PM

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“As it stands, there are more of us from six million in 1957 to 30 million now and [it] is going to be 40 million [in 2050]. But we are going to be an old society. Old, poor, sick, have to work and [many] without children or grandchildren [by 2050],” said DM Analytics Malaysia chief economist Dr Muhammed Abdul Khalid, who spoke at the forum on “Malaysia’s Population in 2050: What Does This Mean Socio-Economically?” yesterday. The forum was organised by the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia.

Muhammed said Malaysia at present does not have a comprehensive policy to address the issue of an ageing population. He cited a presentation by Unicef Malaysia’s deputy representative and senior social policy specialist Dr Amjad Rabi, which showed Malaysia becoming an ageing nation by 2035, with more than 15% of the population aged 65 and above, compared with 8% now.

He noted that currently there are about 70% of Malaysians — who are about to withdraw their money from the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) — with less than RM50,000 in EPF savings and about 20% having less than RM7,000.

“Young people are also not doing well. Youth unemployment is going up. Even if you get a job, your salary is probably going to be stagnant. Between 2007 and 2015, the job wage growth for graduates was about 2%. Minus inflation, it (wage growth) was negative,” he said.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mala...hout-children-0

There are far fewer well off people than most expected.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 27 2017, 03:57 PM

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