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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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SUSadvocado
post Apr 17 2017, 11:43 PM

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guys, stop dreaming about property bubble.

sure, middle income group will suffer, but u need to know who holds the majority of properties in Malaysia.

it's the businessman & tycoons, also kronnies & gomen servants.

before they go down, they would have sucked as much money as possible from society and you would go down before them, for example making the economy crash.

sure by that time comes, many people will be forced to dump their properties, but you will also be unable to purchase them because local economy has slumped too much to buy a house.

for those businessman & kronnies, the money they sucked in by sacrificing the country's economy will allow them to hold on to their properties, and as property price collapse, they have more funds to sapu these properties.

when economy recover, we will see even bigger disparity between super rich vs commoners.

just look at 1997. the rich became richer. those that suffer, are middle class people & small time businessman. those on top will not get affected because they will use the country as a shield.

unless u have a way to stash ur ringgit in foreign banks, maybe by the time ringgit collapse u have more money to make purchase. if ur money is in Malaysia, forget about it.
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post Apr 17 2017, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(ZenGTMM @ Apr 17 2017, 10:43 PM)
My self analysis will see a huge oversupply in the mid range market (450-800k) due to the current onslaught of properties launched since 2014 onwards.

1) House prices reduce by 5-8% average annually till 2022, since a lot of "investors" have overlooked the burden of forking out maintenance fee for their properties. With MF trending around 30-40sen/sqft currently, an increase to 40-50sen within the next 3-4 years (past trends of condo launched in 2011-2014 with mf fee of 22-28sen). a 1000sqft property will command 400-500 monthly in maintenance, eating out a sizable chunk of salary.

2) When management starts increasing mf due to poor collection from house owner, existing tenant can and will force management to initiate foreclosing against a property for outstanding mf as they would definitely not want to be burdened by unperforming flippers

3) Condos that are not family orientated, or for own stay purpose will attract subprime renters (maipren, habibis), reducing resale value of properties in prime locations. This is not to say that rental yield will be bad, its just tougher to off load the property to someone else who is looking for long term stay. Cost of repairing the house might go out due to irresponsible bad tenants.

4) Salary growth will be muted in the future as more jobs are being taken up by upcoming markets and also automation of most jobs that can be replaced by robots etc.

5) Low upside in O&G, Banking and other high income jobs will further put pressure on the high end market in the foreseeable future which will cascade down towards the mid range as existing condo-owners will not have much room for price appreciation as the high end markets are rather muted. with existing condos going for more than 450/sqft in the past 2-3 years, a 1000-1400sq ft house will cost 450k-630k before even calculating interest and maintenance cost that has been incurred for the next 5-10 years. Therefore even if the condo-owner is able to dispose it off at a 30-40% increase in property price, end of the day the discounted cash flow coming in 10 years later on will probably be even lower than just saving up the cash and investing in alternative investment such as REITs, mutual funds or businesses etc.

6) Just assuming every couple in Malaysia have a minimum combined income of 6k nett with no other commitments, they would still be hard pressed to afford any property above 600-700k.

Just my 5 cents on this. For property surplus to be fully consumed by 2020 is a rather optimistic presumption.  Especially for those UUU hardliners.
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house price will never reduce, for new houses, if house price drop, so does the size, so in the end price per sqft is still more expensive.

reason is simply because 1.inflation 2.subsidies removed 3.ringgit drop 4.increased material cost 5.GST 6.more undertable required to acquire land 7.increased minimum wage. and now we have Steel Tax on imported Steel forcing builders to either pay for the tax, or source steel locally at exorbitant price.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 12:10 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 17 2017, 11:58 PM)
House price did dropped in 1997. House price is normally drop from foreclosure.
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yes dropped, but most commoners have no money to buy even at low price, only the super rich & kronnies have sufficient wealth to sapu the properties, this is why you see, after 1997, house ownership for commoners has fallen even more while the rich continues to own more and more properties despite the "falling value" of properties throughout 2010's.

always remember property price drops when economy is not good, and when economy is not good, the value of ur money also drops.

if not, why people don't sapu all the landed properties sold at rm60k like 30 years back? it's cheap right? and with the salary vs house price, most people can actually afford 2-3 houses with a mean salary of rm3k. takes less than 5 years to finish the loan for 1 house. by the time u reach 40, you should be able to own at least 5 properties.

but why, people back then average own at most 1-2 houses? coz they cannot forsee properties skyrocketing?

why people don't buy classic sports car back when it was only rm100k? if they bought them back then, would have worth rm300k now.

simple. they can't afford it.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 13 2017, 12:23 AM)
Economic recession is not the end of the world, about 90% of people will still have jobs; these people could afford regular lifestyle. visiting shopping malls is a favourite and cheap pass time for many, selected shopping malls are packed during weekends and holidays regardless beside we are not yet in economic recession.

kv property bubble was fueled by cheap and easy credit, a fallout of us qe. as income didn't rise in line or faster, the inflated property is not sustainable. long term equilibrium always prevailed. so either property price will drop or stagnant to wait for inflation to catch up.

most of those ride the bullrun will end up worst off than the beginning. more money to be made during economic recession.

believe many income didn't rise as expected, with more property vp, those highly geared will be financially stressed. any increase bank interest rate will almost tip them over.

our gomen re-base the statistics every few years, it is possible to find gdp contraction or larger than reported contraction a few quarters after, so don't be so hopeful the gomen will declare economic recession unless our neighbours have declared first.
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90%?

dude, back in 1997, the country still have strong reserves.

now 2017, Malaysia is close to red. many business already moved out of the country, many are downsizing, retrenchment going on for few years and now affecting downstreams. many people are jobless. not because they cannot find job, but because business are closing down.

this time it's no play play, i doubt Malaysia economy can ever get back on it's feet.

the only way is to sell the country to the only buyer: China.

hopefully China should be able to revitalize local economy if it plans to use Malaysia as a strategic military outpost. like how USA is doing with Taiwan & South Korea.

in the mean time, i can't imagine how Malaysia can recover on it's own. we're on our last legs. with Crude oil supplies falling, we have little left with our blessed natural resources.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 12:16 AM

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QUOTE(ZenGTMM @ Apr 18 2017, 12:01 AM)
They are already sucking out the money, but not investing in local properties. Black money are all brought overseas and invested in safe haven places like US, UK, Australia, France etc.

Who ask you to get stucked in a rat race? When times are good now you should be hustling instead of slaving off working in a day job. There are many ways of alternative investment u can do now, Mutual funds, money games, quick hit investment, forex exchange (self-trade or master trader account tagging), uber/grab around etc. Ride the wave as you go, dont fight the wave. Ikan bilis like us will have to ride the wave first to gain more before we can be the wave maker.

Property bubble have been floating around since 2012/2013. Why?
Because at that time, people were used to market prices of 150-250/sqft house prices. And that is landed property.
When prices went out of their comfort range, many people thought that prices way beyond normal affordability, hence the hope it will crash.

We laugh at our neighbours (singapore) for their pigeon hole housing. Look at KV now, its a swift nest housing market now.
Now when prop prices are going at 450-600/sqft, and easily up to 700-900/sqft if its near a Mall or MRT station, when the market crashes, its not going to go back to 150-250/sqft. the new norm will be 300-350sqft and appreciate from there onwards. at 300-350/sqft price, people would rather buy then rent, hence reversing the bubble pop.

Easier way to put it is petrol prices. Ignore world market prices of oil. we were so used to RM1.30-1.60/L of petrol back then. Whenever there was a price hike above 1.60/L, example a 10sen hike, people would be bee lining at petrol stations to fill up their tank. After a market adjustment of prices beyond RM2 and above, now with a weekly price adjustment of 3-8sens, rarely u can see petrol station having such a huge line like before. Rm2 is the new norm for petrol price and people have adjusted to that. Now if it goes below RM2, people are going to say its cheap as compared to before.
Similar theory applies to property market.

After every bubble price will still trend at a higher high and higher lows.
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high risk high return, you invest in mutual funds or FD, you get low risk but low return that can't even cover inflation & ringgit drop.

u invest in quick hit investment? good luck.

Forex? wow. you actually believe in it. OK if i had the money back when ringgit was 2:1 sgd, i might have stashed my money in Singapore. but hey it's not too late, soon it'd be 1:4. depends if you have the heart to bear with the high exchange rate right now 1:3
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 12:19 AM

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QUOTE(ZenGTMM @ Apr 18 2017, 12:11 AM)
True with PR1MA and affordable projects coming up here and there, those current renters who couldnt afford to buy property at current prices will move on to the cheaper affordable property. More units are going to be vacant and putting more pressure on people who especially those leveraged on multiple property. Vacant unit surplus up, rent goes down. Rent goes down, cashflow will be squeezed. We dont need so many foreclosure. Just a 4-5% of existing units in the market will be enough to cause panic in the market. Just a 5-7% in unemployment rate among city dwellers will be enough to trigger panic in the market.
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those PR1MA & affordable projects are targetted to the poor income group, mainly Malays & Indians.

while those current on market are still targeted towards middle income group, and you can say Chinese.

those that invested in poor areas will suffer but they also bought their units not so expensive. their units will still be desirable for those that can afford because no way Prima will be better in terms of living condition.

these are targeted to the 10% hardcore poor. you still have the rest of the 90% population.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 12:24 AM

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QUOTE(ZenGTMM @ Apr 18 2017, 12:19 AM)
Valid question. Because everyone ignore the higher high and higher low theory.

Do u know before the year 2001,
1) the maximum loan tenure is only 20 years? 25 years for fresh grads.
2) Maximum loan installment amount is only 30% of your gross salary?
3) People are very geared towards a landed property instead of condo?

Fast forward to 2016
1) max loan tenure at 35 years.
2) max loan installment up to 80% DSR ratio. It went from 30% of gross salary to 50% of gross to 65% of gross and now 80% of DSR?
3) People now are adjusted to the mentality that landed in KV is too expensive and the new generation is too focused on lifestyle activities and are attracted by facilities offered by condos etc. Plus landed props are in such short supply, rich people see it as a statement of wealth to own a landed unit, hence the constant price increase for landed units.
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i'm sorry, supply vs demand, as population keeps increasing and with the influx of millions of foreigners, and people gathering more on big cities, i cannot see how properties price will collapse.

it may drop, but still to a level where it's still considered high. because the inflation in house price has went out of control for the past few years. and together with increased building cost & profit margin, no way developers will lower the price "significantly".

KL land is almost full, so the amount of houses/condos you can build is limited. which will act as the limit stopper.

and with more and more companies closing down on smaller states, you expect more people moving into bigger cities.

House price may drop, but it will never collapse, and will still remain as unfordable for most. only those hardcore poors would consider moving to Pr1ma.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 12:48 AM

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QUOTE(ZenGTMM @ Apr 18 2017, 12:36 AM)
Well u said it urself. There is no future for current workers to have upside in their salary. How will there be an upside in property prices?
I never said FD. FD is for stupid people to invest. U can keep a minimal amount in FD as rain cash. The rest should be in higher investment return.

Mutual funds suggestion:

http://www.chokleong.com/2015/05/28/what-i...-last-10-years/

http://screen.morningstar.com/fundsearch/fundrank.html

U can see from here, an annualised return of 12-15%, with lump sum deposit of 100k can give u 330k-444k in 10years.
This is just assuming u do a lump sum deposit, if u factor in monthly contribution to smoothen out the average price of ur units, u can gain even more.

Quick hit investment? Why not? As i said ride the wave. The everpopular money game from Penang is based off on a system advisor that Im using in my real forex account. 20% a month sounds absurd, but put it this way, u take 1k usd put in there, monthly get 20% u take and reinvest into ur unit trust. Nobody ask u to put ur whole life wealth in there.1k USD = RM4.7k. Sounds like big money, but its better off than buying a new car and suffering a depreciation of 15-20k a year. Diversify and ride the wave.

Real world forex trading? Why cant believe? Msians only pandai do MLM. Ask u go study and research urself and trade in real market urself.

babypips, forex.com, fxstreet all provide valuable information on how to trade the market. Learn the basics before jumping on the bandwagon. Learn to paper trade. Everyone wants quick money and when they get burned, they turn back and cry saying its a scam.

U said msia on its last leg and its almost beyond hope of returning. so why not change SGD now at 1:3 and wait for 1:5 later and profit?

U have to learn to look long term my friend.
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everyone needs a roof. they can't afford, they rent for life. value still there, just more for rental than sales. the demand will keep increasing, even if locals don't rent, foreigners will, as the country bring in more foreigners, they will replace the poor locals moving to Pr1ma and rent the units these folks left.

houses aren't being built as fast as people moving into the big cities. there will still be shortage of houses.

and what you are encouraging here is take bigger risk for better returns than working a full time job.

i mean if it does u well, good on you, i would not advise people with little knowledge on investment to participate. even mutual funds aren't guaranteed. but sure if it works for you good on you. i would put some disclaimer about the cons & risks too if i were a responsible poster.

unless ur an agent.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 01:07 AM

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QUOTE(Holyboy27 @ Apr 18 2017, 12:55 AM)
Would like some clarification on the bolded statements

1. Influx of foreigners
Blue or white collar?
Intake of blue collar workers is heavily controlled recently after the 6m Bangladheshi workers drama.
With the downward economic trend, are there as many white collar human resources being imported?

2. Are people gathering more in big cities as in moving to stay there on a permanent basis or just during working hours?
Perhaps there may be an increasing trend of people travelling to and fro the big cities from nearby towns, Seremban/Semenyih - KL.

3. What kinds of companies are closing down in smaller states? How many job opportunities did they provide?
I do think that for certain segments e.g manufacturing and plantation, smaller or underdeveloped states/outskirts may actually be more strategic since
- area/ha is relatively cheaper
- local blue collar workers are more easily sourced

4. I'm not sure the hardcore poor can afford Pr1ma.
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1.The slowdown of foreign workers just temporary, wait until the heat cool off. it's a minister's cash cow, no way they will let the milk stop flowing.
generally you see more blue collars, which will fill in the void for the low end properties as local hardcore poor move into Pr1ma and other cheaper housing. they won't buy, but they will rent, so the value will still be relevant, as for low end properties people aim for rental gains rather than sales.

locals that aren't bottom 10% will still look for decent properties, and since land is limited, so are their choices even if new properties are being built, still cannot cope with influx of folks moving from other states.

2.Most are, look at CNY & Hari Raya, many folks no longer balik kampung coz whole family including young & old already moved to KL. as small town jobs getting lesser, you expect more people moving into bigger cities. even Penang has lost lots of job opportunities and many are moving to KL. and don't forget, Sabah & Sarawak, many younger people are moving here too. just my place there's quite a few Q plated cars. don't think they plan to move back, due to the place being underdeveloped, and the recent political tension between Indonesia/Phillipines, and also China military vessels. if war were to break out, Sabah & Sarawak will be the main battlefield. so yes, more people will move to bigger cities, and i mean KL or JB.

older people with family may stay in Seremban work in KL, but younger ones won't.

3.Mostly tech companies in big cities are affected, this in turn snowball down to downstream, many operates in smaller town. with operation cost rise with inflation/removed subsidies/increased minimum wage/increased material cost, many business are facing hard times right now, and with smaller town companies, their market is smaller, as such they won't be able to hold too long. manufacturing requires close to port & to clients, if you are in rural place where transportation is a problem, even with cheap operation cost no one will move there, unless China builds a highspeed rail connecting these places. Plantation, maybe, who's willing to work there if not foreigners?

4.Hardcore poor can't afford anything. They #RentForLife.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(galkelly @ Apr 18 2017, 01:32 AM)
v20 and the price still havent drop...
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will not drop. price increment will slow down, but since when you actually see something in Malaysia drop price?

Petrol got drop?

Rice got drop?
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 11:45 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 18 2017, 11:39 AM)
In the long term, kv property price increase at about inflation rate. However, drastic property price from in 2011 to 2014 was largely speculative. As income didn't rise inline or faster than home price, it is unsustainable. Property price drop from foreclosure sale.
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i'm sorry, salary increment barely caught up with inflation, so in no way salary could catch up with property price increment even under non-speculative environment.

i already said many times, ask urself where ur annual increment come from? from the sky? No. from consumers a.k.a ur own pocket.

you get rm100 increment, but you never realize next year you have to spend rm150 more on your living cost because business will need to increase their price to cover your increased wage, and they will always put a margin to cushion their risk, so end up price increase more than ur salary.

this is how capitalize works. rich gets richer, poor gets poorer. sure there will be rare cases that people rose to success from nothing, but it's like Winning Toto. chances of hitting the jackpot are low.

Property price will never fall. Time to wake up.

The longer the wait the more u end up paying and less quality house you get. which means all these years of hard work meant nothing.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 18 2017, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(sheahann @ Apr 18 2017, 11:26 AM)
Now so many project from government 200-300k ..
even developer launch project alot below 500k already..
whoever bought prop to flip during property rush 2013-2017 need to keep their property for long time.. by the time wanna sell also OLD already as developer keep on building new condo ..

those bought before property rush already make money. those trapped good luck ..
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hows the quality of these "Low Cost" units? i'm sure to lower the profit margin they have to try really hard to cut cost.

there will be 1st batch of people not realizing this, it will take few years before major problems on these cheap units start to show, by that time, people would realize the mistake they made by choosing cheaper option.
SUSadvocado
post Jul 17 2017, 01:02 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 11 2017, 07:44 PM)
Unlikely currently, there wasn't over supply, subprime or people over stretched in residential in 2008.
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no oversupply? do you go out & see?

nowadays so many new launchings, KL got so many people?

if you say many renting looking for buying, for sure the rented properties will become empty.

and when you drive further out to Shah Alam, Klang, Kajang, & Sungei Buloh, really got so many people?

the only price that will drop is subsales, because new launching the cost of building is much higher as Ringgit drops, material/fuel price goes up, developers will not dip their pricing because they can hold, unless you buy from those small developers than maybe they go bust.

but one thing for sure, new properties will never become cheaper, NEVER!
SUSadvocado
post Jul 17 2017, 01:10 AM

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QUOTE(beetch @ Jul 17 2017, 12:55 AM)
Why u all so naive?

There is no property bubble.

Not gonna bust.

Ok?
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i've written alot i forgot in which thread about the bubble won't burst so soon, earliest burst would be around 2020 onwards, because that is when Malaysia economy will start to go bust, many local business will close down, which means many employees will lose their jobs, which means lost of income, which means difficulty repaying monthly loan installments, which means, many will be forced to sell off their properties, which means more supply, which means a drop in property price, and those that can't sell it off will have their property lelong.

now comes the problem, this is a nationwide problem, because this is not 2007 where economy bust was due to international market, this time Malaysia economy bust is due to Malaysia itself. so everyone will have their wallet tighten up, so even when 2nd hand properties drop in price, you, most likely won't have the money or guts to commit in such a big commitment in such a tough moment. so you will not benefit out from this economy catastrophe.

the only people that will benefit are those super riches that has tons of cash flow, and those politicians & kronnies, and very few lucky ones whom still manage to stay on a floating company, and of course, rich foreigners. they will start to buy up the properties, and when the economy ever recover, they will end up richer than they ever were.

ever notice, after every economy crisis, the rich just gets richer, and disparity between rich & poor becomes even bigger? and this happens almost once every 10 years, so in another 20-30 years, it will be like in the Hollywood Movies, where the riches totally dominate the poor. something like Phillipines where elites stay in nice city while the rest of the 95% population stays in slump, no fresh water & dirty air.
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post Jul 17 2017, 09:20 AM

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QUOTE(unixcorp @ Jul 17 2017, 02:13 AM)
IMHO, gonna burst soon..

Just look at many empty rental lots and houses ady..
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most are held by rich fellas that die die rather let it empty than rent below market. they have holding power, many are kronnies.

for example they do biz, they want 30% profit, if you offer them 20%, they won't even bat an eye, coz they have money, money come too easy, you understand how Malaysia biz works for kronnies?
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post Jul 17 2017, 09:24 AM

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QUOTE(beetch @ Jul 17 2017, 08:49 AM)
Keep dreaming la bro. I have been through 97 and 07 and i still see people buying in throves. The property in merehsia will never go down in masses. The trend is if you dont have money to buy some other people will always will. The developer builds a unit at 500k he'll never go 400k selling price. A bankrup with property being tarik balik will be auctioned AT MARKET VALUE. Middle class who has no more holding power will sell at market value and if desperate 5-10% below market but it is very very rare. You only see it 1 in every 200 ads or so.

U can keep on dreaming man. So many years and still dont want to wake up. Dunno wanna laugh or not.
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bro, did you even read properly?

i said the time Malaysia property crash would be economy dead.

do you want be to reiterate? 97 & 07 are mainly international market causing the crash, this time, it's Malaysia internal own problem, Malaysia going towards bankruptcy and with the opening of floodgates for China business to come in most local business are taking real heat, we have no way to compete due to the redtapes & high tax Malaysia government is implementing, by 2020, you will see at least 40% local business either shifted to other countries or close down, so you will see many working people losing their jobs, it'd be like US property crash except it's not due to irresponsible lending from banks or conjob by investment companies but Economic failure.

it's real, wake up before it's too late if you still think your industry is safe.

the next economy crash in Malaysia is different from previous decades.

thanks to you know who, which I will be voting next GE.
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post Jul 17 2017, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(beetch @ Jul 17 2017, 09:30 AM)
Like i said, it doesnt matter. You would be naive to think it does. Property is simple, you dont have money, someone else WILL have the money to buy the property. By then like u said, if China floodgate it will be the PRC buying it. It doesnt matter.
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yea someone else you, and like i said, doesn't matter, someone will have money, but definitely you won't. unless your income is sourced from outside Malaysia, you are affected if you rely on Malaysia market.

even if you have money, bad economy will make you reluctant to take a up big commitment.

sure, the kronnies and super rich will benefit by sweeping up these properties. WHICH I ALREADY WROTE DOWN?

and yes, property will drop, when majority can't afford to pay their loans, there will be a sudden surge in Supplies while Demands shrink. only when the super riches & foreigners start to buy up the properties may the price go back up.

but do you have so many super riches & foreigners. you know how many properties KL alone has? those that already nearly finish or completed their loans might be safe but i can assure you those that just purchased their homes within 20 years aren't.

you make it sound like Oh too many house default & lelong don't worry people with cash like those PRC already waiting in line to purchase.

so naive.
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post Jul 17 2017, 09:37 AM

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QUOTE(cocbum4 @ Jul 17 2017, 09:33 AM)
Dapig semo memang tara otak
Every time spread lies
So this time gonna bankrupt again for non sense reason than last time. Ok.Jpg
By the time dapig already mention bankrupt for no. 75357426 times
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hi, i don't really follow the news.

my finding just based on what i see in real life. not on internet nor newspaper. you might be the kind of people that only goes to Sunway Pyramid, 1U or Midvalley so you might not understand, go to other areas, see how cham biz is.

majority small local biz in Malaysia will die off by 2020. you may say new form of biz will come up, sure, but won't be owned by foreigners majority coz locals lack the tech.
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post Jul 17 2017, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(cocbum4 @ Jul 17 2017, 09:44 AM)
These are all the lies dapig love to recycle every year, it is getting very bored, and all these lies always effective against millennials, they are all so very naive kekekek
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ok bro, i'm not sure if you are being truthful or just sarcastic but i'll just leave it here.
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post Jul 17 2017, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(Monstar @ Jul 17 2017, 10:19 AM)
The bubble burst 2 years ago after the revised lending guidelines. Products not driven by market demand has seen a fall in prices. Smarter developers have pivoted to the affordable sector which is more inline with market demand.

It is going to stay soft for a year or two and then the market will pick up again in terms of volume for the affordable sector.
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problem is these affordable houses are so bad in design & cramp for high rise, built quality will be a big question, and let's not talk about resident density. you really need to see urself to believe.

for landed, it will be very far far away, sharing the whole taman with 2999 other houses.
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