My self analysis will see a huge oversupply in the mid range market (450-800k) due to the current onslaught of properties launched since 2014 onwards.

1) House prices reduce by 5-8% average annually till 2022, since a lot of "investors" have overlooked the burden of forking out maintenance fee for their properties. With MF trending around 30-40sen/sqft currently, an increase to 40-50sen within the next 3-4 years (past trends of condo launched in 2011-2014 with mf fee of 22-28sen). a 1000sqft property will command 400-500 monthly in maintenance, eating out a sizable chunk of salary.

2) When management starts increasing mf due to poor collection from house owner, existing tenant can and will force management to initiate foreclosing against a property for outstanding mf as they would definitely not want to be burdened by unperforming flippers

3) Condos that are not family orientated, or for own stay purpose will attract subprime renters (maipren, habibis), reducing resale value of properties in prime locations. This is not to say that rental yield will be bad, its just tougher to off load the property to someone else who is looking for long term stay. Cost of repairing the house might go out due to irresponsible bad tenants.

4) Salary growth will be muted in the future as more jobs are being taken up by upcoming markets and also automation of most jobs that can be replaced by robots etc.

5) Low upside in O&G, Banking and other high income jobs will further put pressure on the high end market in the foreseeable future which will cascade down towards the mid range as existing condo-owners will not have much room for price appreciation as the high end markets are rather muted. with existing condos going for more than 450/sqft in the past 2-3 years, a 1000-1400sq ft house will cost 450k-630k before even calculating interest and maintenance cost that has been incurred for the next 5-10 years. Therefore even if the condo-owner is able to dispose it off at a 30-40% increase in property price, end of the day the discounted cash flow coming in 10 years later on will probably be even lower than just saving up the cash and investing in alternative investment such as REITs, mutual funds or businesses etc.

6) Just assuming every couple in Malaysia have a minimum combined income of 6k nett with no other commitments, they would still be hard pressed to afford any property above 600-700k.

Just my 5 cents on this. For property surplus to be fully consumed by 2020 is a rather optimistic presumption.  Especially for those UUU hardliners.

guys, stop dreaming about property bubble.

sure, middle income group will suffer, but u need to know who holds the majority of properties in Malaysia.

it's the businessman & tycoons, also kronnies & gomen servants.

before they go down, they would have sucked as much money as possible from society and you would go down before them, for example making the economy crash.

sure by that time comes, many people will be forced to dump their properties, but you will also be unable to purchase them because local economy has slumped too much to buy a house.

for those businessman & kronnies, the money they sucked in by sacrificing the country's economy will allow them to hold on to their properties, and as property price collapse, they have more funds to sapu these properties.

when economy recover, we will see even bigger disparity between super rich vs commoners.

just look at 1997. the rich became richer. those that suffer, are middle class people & small time businessman. those on top will not get affected because they will use the country as a shield.

unless u have a way to stash ur ringgit in foreign banks, maybe by the time ringgit collapse u have more money to make purchase. if ur money is in Malaysia, forget about it.

house price will never reduce, for new houses, if house price drop, so does the size, so in the end price per sqft is still more expensive.

reason is simply because 1.inflation 2.subsidies removed 3.ringgit drop 4.increased material cost 5.GST 6.more undertable required to acquire land 7.increased minimum wage. and now we have Steel Tax on imported Steel forcing builders to either pay for the tax, or source steel locally at exorbitant price.

guys, stop dreaming about property bubble.

sure, middle income group will suffer, but u need to know who holds the majority of properties in Malaysia.

it's the businessman & tycoons, also kronnies & gomen servants.

before they go down, they would have sucked as much money as possible from society and you would go down before them, for example making the economy crash.

sure by that time comes, many people will be forced to dump their properties, but you will also be unable to purchase them because local economy has slumped too much to buy a house.

for those businessman & kronnies, the money they sucked in by sacrificing the country's economy will allow them to hold on to their properties, and as property price collapse, they have more funds to sapu these properties.

when economy recover, we will see even bigger disparity between super rich vs commoners.

just look at 1997. the rich became richer. those that suffer, are middle class people & small time businessman. those on top will not get affected because they will use the country as a shield.

unless u have a way to stash ur ringgit in foreign banks, maybe by the time ringgit collapse u have more money to make purchase. if ur money is in Malaysia, forget about it.

House price did dropped in 1997. House price is normally drop from foreclosure.

now only flippers realize they have taken significant losses. padan muka

now developers and government are focusing on affordable housing.

price will come down

Economic recession is not the end of the world, about 90% of people will still have jobs; these people could afford regular lifestyle. visiting shopping malls is a favourite and cheap pass time for many, selected shopping malls are packed during weekends and holidays regardless beside we are not yet in economic recession.

kv property bubble was fueled by cheap and easy credit, a fallout of us qe. as income didn't rise in line or faster, the inflated property is not sustainable. long term equilibrium always prevailed. so either property price will drop or stagnant to wait for inflation to catch up.

most of those ride the bullrun will end up worst off than the beginning. more money to be made during economic recession.

believe many income didn't rise as expected, with more property vp, those highly geared will be financially stressed. any increase bank interest rate will almost tip them over.

our gomen re-base the statistics every few years, it is possible to find gdp contraction or larger than reported contraction a few quarters after, so don't be so hopeful the gomen will declare economic recession unless our neighbours have declared first.

They are already sucking out the money, but not investing in local properties. Black money are all brought overseas and invested in safe haven places like US, UK, Australia, France etc.

Who ask you to get stucked in a rat race? When times are good now you should be hustling instead of slaving off working in a day job. There are many ways of alternative investment u can do now, Mutual funds, money games, quick hit investment, forex exchange (self-trade or master trader account tagging), uber/grab around etc. Ride the wave as you go, dont fight the wave. Ikan bilis like us will have to ride the wave first to gain more before we can be the wave maker.

Property bubble have been floating around since 2012/2013. Why?
Because at that time, people were used to market prices of 150-250/sqft house prices. And that is landed property.
When prices went out of their comfort range, many people thought that prices way beyond normal affordability, hence the hope it will crash.

We laugh at our neighbours (singapore) for their pigeon hole housing. Look at KV now, its a swift nest housing market now.
Now when prop prices are going at 450-600/sqft, and easily up to 700-900/sqft if its near a Mall or MRT station, when the market crashes, its not going to go back to 150-250/sqft. the new norm will be 300-350sqft and appreciate from there onwards. at 300-350/sqft price, people would rather buy then rent, hence reversing the bubble pop.

Easier way to put it is petrol prices. Ignore world market prices of oil. we were so used to RM1.30-1.60/L of petrol back then. Whenever there was a price hike above 1.60/L, example a 10sen hike, people would be bee lining at petrol stations to fill up their tank. After a market adjustment of prices beyond RM2 and above, now with a weekly price adjustment of 3-8sens, rarely u can see petrol station having such a huge line like before. Rm2 is the new norm for petrol price and people have adjusted to that. Now if it goes below RM2, people are going to say its cheap as compared to before.
Similar theory applies to property market.

After every bubble price will still trend at a higher high and higher lows.

yes dropped, but most commoners have no money to buy even at low price, only the super rich & kronnies have sufficient wealth to sapu the properties, this is why you see, after 1997, house ownership for commoners has fallen even more while the rich continues to own more and more properties despite the "falling value" of properties throughout 2010's.

always remember property price drops when economy is not good, and when economy is not good, the value of ur money also drops.

if not, why people don't sapu all the landed properties sold at rm60k like 30 years back? it's cheap right? and with the salary vs house price, most people can actually afford 2-3 houses with a mean salary of rm3k. takes less than 5 years to finish the loan for 1 house. by the time u reach 40, you should be able to own at least 5 properties.

but why, people back then average own at most 1-2 houses? coz they cannot forsee properties skyrocketing?

why people don't buy classic sports car back when it was only rm100k? if they bought them back then, would have worth rm300k now.

simple. they can't afford it.

True with PR1MA and affordable projects coming up here and there, those current renters who couldnt afford to buy property at current prices will move on to the cheaper affordable property. More units are going to be vacant and putting more pressure on people who especially those leveraged on multiple property. Vacant unit surplus up, rent goes down. Rent goes down, cashflow will be squeezed. We dont need so many foreclosure. Just a 4-5% of existing units in the market will be enough to cause panic in the market. Just a 5-7% in unemployment rate among city dwellers will be enough to trigger panic in the market.

Valid question. Because everyone ignore the higher high and higher low theory.

Do u know before the year 2001,
1) the maximum loan tenure is only 20 years? 25 years for fresh grads.
2) Maximum loan installment amount is only 30% of your gross salary?
3) People are very geared towards a landed property instead of condo?

Fast forward to 2016
1) max loan tenure at 35 years.
2) max loan installment up to 80% DSR ratio. It went from 30% of gross salary to 50% of gross to 65% of gross and now 80% of DSR?
3) People now are adjusted to the mentality that landed in KV is too expensive and the new generation is too focused on lifestyle activities and are attracted by facilities offered by condos etc. Plus landed props are in such short supply, rich people see it as a statement of wealth to own a landed unit, hence the constant price increase for landed units.

90%?

dude, back in 1997, the country still have strong reserves.

now 2017, Malaysia is close to red. many business already moved out of the country, many are downsizing, retrenchment going on for few years and now affecting downstreams. many people are jobless. not because they cannot find job, but because business are closing down.

this time it's no play play, i doubt Malaysia economy can ever get back on it's feet.

the only way is to sell the country to the only buyer: China.

hopefully China should be able to revitalize local economy if it plans to use Malaysia as a strategic military outpost. like how USA is doing with Taiwan & South Korea.

in the mean time, i can't imagine how Malaysia can recover on it's own. we're on our last legs. with Crude oil supplies falling, we have little left with our blessed natural resources.

high risk high return, you invest in mutual funds or FD, you get low risk but low return that can't even cover inflation & ringgit drop.

u invest in quick hit investment? good luck.

Forex? wow. you actually believe in it. OK if i had the money back when ringgit was 2:1 sgd, i might have stashed my money in Singapore. but hey it's not too late, soon it'd be 1:4. depends if you have the heart to bear with the high exchange rate right now 1:3

Well u said it urself. There is no future for current workers to have upside in their salary. How will there be an upside in property prices?
I never said FD. FD is for stupid people to invest. U can keep a minimal amount in FD as rain cash. The rest should be in higher investment return.

Mutual funds suggestion:

http://www.chokleong.com/2015/05/28/what-i...-last-10-years/

http://screen.morningstar.com/fundsearch/fundrank.html

U can see from here, an annualised return of 12-15%, with lump sum deposit of 100k can give u 330k-444k in 10years.
This is just assuming u do a lump sum deposit, if u factor in monthly contribution to smoothen out the average price of ur units, u can gain even more.

Quick hit investment? Why not? As i said ride the wave. The everpopular money game from Penang is based off on a system advisor that Im using in my real forex account. 20% a month sounds absurd, but put it this way, u take 1k usd put in there, monthly get 20% u take and reinvest into ur unit trust. Nobody ask u to put ur whole life wealth in there.1k USD = RM4.7k. Sounds like big money, but its better off than buying a new car and suffering a depreciation of 15-20k a year. Diversify and ride the wave.

Real world forex trading? Why cant believe? Msians only pandai do MLM. Ask u go study and research urself and trade in real market urself.

babypips, forex.com, fxstreet all provide valuable information on how to trade the market. Learn the basics before jumping on the bandwagon. Learn to paper trade. Everyone wants quick money and when they get burned, they turn back and cry saying its a scam.

U said msia on its last leg and its almost beyond hope of returning. so why not change SGD now at 1:3 and wait for 1:5 later and profit?

U have to learn to look long term my friend.

i'm sorry, supply vs demand, as population keeps increasing and with the influx of millions of foreigners, and people gathering more on big cities, i cannot see how properties price will collapse.

it may drop, but still to a level where it's still considered high. because the inflation in house price has went out of control for the past few years. and together with increased building cost & profit margin, no way developers will lower the price "significantly".

KL land is almost full, so the amount of houses/condos you can build is limited. which will act as the limit stopper.

and with more and more companies closing down on smaller states, you expect more people moving into bigger cities.

House price may drop, but it will never collapse, and will still remain as unfordable for most. only those hardcore poors would consider moving to Pr1ma.

Would like some clarification on the bolded statements

1. Influx of foreigners
Blue or white collar?
Intake of blue collar workers is heavily controlled recently after the 6m Bangladheshi workers drama.
With the downward economic trend, are there as many white collar human resources being imported?

2. Are people gathering more in big cities as in moving to stay there on a permanent basis or just during working hours?
Perhaps there may be an increasing trend of people travelling to and fro the big cities from nearby towns, Seremban/Semenyih - KL.

3. What kinds of companies are closing down in smaller states? How many job opportunities did they provide?
I do think that for certain segments e.g manufacturing and plantation, smaller or underdeveloped states/outskirts may actually be more strategic since
- area/ha is relatively cheaper
- local blue collar workers are more easily sourced

4. I'm not sure the hardcore poor can afford Pr1ma.

v20 and the price still havent drop...

those PR1MA & affordable projects are targetted to the poor income group, mainly Malays & Indians.

while those current on market are still targeted towards middle income group, and you can say Chinese.

those that invested in poor areas will suffer but they also bought their units not so expensive. their units will still be desirable for those that can afford because no way Prima will be better in terms of living condition.

these are targeted to the 10% hardcore poor. you still have the rest of the 90% population.

what is money games