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 USD/MYR v4

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AVFAN
post Dec 6 2016, 11:49 PM

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All eyes are on the next international reserve data to be released by Bank Negara tomorrow to determine how much has been used to defend the ringgit against the US dollar since Nov 11.
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...egara-reserves/

FMC expands overseas ringgit forex market
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...nshore-fx-mart/
nexona88
post Dec 7 2016, 12:22 AM

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I got feeling that the international reserve will decrease blush.gif
How much is anyone guess to speculate..
spiderman17
post Dec 7 2016, 02:35 AM

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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 6 2016, 04:07 PM)
Why are you converting back?....you got good investment in myr?....
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too much USD holdings. felt not much further upside on USD-myr in short-medium term. no data to support, just gut feel.
Hansel
post Dec 7 2016, 05:54 AM

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Good morning all,...

MYR Strengthened as of now, before Asia goes full-swing :-

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MYR%3DX&t=1d

Interbank Rate !
prophetjul
post Dec 7 2016, 08:51 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 06:20 PM)
Yes, bro,... BUT,.. it also depends on the quality of the REIT. Err,.. I will look at the following metrics of the REIT. I am applying across the principles from the SGX,.. First, assuming the rate rise starts to take place from early next year, then,...

1) The Interest Coverage Ratio of the REIT, the higher the figure, the better, in terms of x times of the interest to be paid out.

2) The Weighted Average Debt Ratio (WADR) of the REIT.

3) The Weighted Average Debt-to-Expiry (WADE), the longer from now, the better it will be.

If the above three metrics are acceptable, then the REIT would be able to withstand an interest rate rise environment.

I saw many of the Aussie REITs and yield counters have at least two of the above metrics being acceptable. The ones who don't have been bought over by the ones that do.

What have you heard ?
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i have not waded in Aus REITS yet. A mile too far.

Howevre, i have started to look into mortgage REITs in US.
elea88
post Dec 7 2016, 09:00 AM

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[quote=prophetjul,Dec 7 2016, 08:51 AM]
i have not waded in Aus REITS yet. A mile too far.



http://www.fraserslogisticstrust.com/

Pure-Play Australian Logistics and Industrial REIT listed in Singapore.
prophetjul
post Dec 7 2016, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Dec 7 2016, 09:00 AM)
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 7 2016, 08:51 AM)

i have not waded in Aus REITS yet. A mile too far.
http://www.fraserslogisticstrust.com/

Pure-Play Australian Logistics and Industrial REIT listed in Singapore.
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Thanks
Would prefer to go into AUD based securities just to hedge a bit in the AUD since my children are over there. smile.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Dec 7 2016, 09:13 AM
Hansel
post Dec 7 2016, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 7 2016, 08:21 AM)
YES! rclxms.gif
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Yes, bro,.. but there is one more hurdle. Maybank in Msia may still choose to use back yesterday's exchange rate if we wish to TT out funds. Then money-changers will follow suit in their notes exchange for us,... Hence, we may not be able to enjoy better forex too, because we are at the mercy of our 'exchangers' onshore.
Hansel
post Dec 7 2016, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 7 2016, 08:51 AM)
i have not waded in Aus REITS yet. A mile too far.

Howevre, i have started to look into mortgage REITs in US.
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QUOTE(elea88 @ Dec 7 2016, 09:00 AM)
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 7 2016, 08:51 AM)

i have not waded in Aus REITS yet. A mile too far.
http://www.fraserslogisticstrust.com/

Pure-Play Australian Logistics and Industrial REIT listed in Singapore.
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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 7 2016, 09:11 AM)
Pure-Play Australian Logistics and Industrial REIT listed in Singapore.
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Thanks
Would prefer to go into AUD based securities just to hedge a bit in the AUD since my children are over there. smile.gif
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Yes, investing via the recently-listed Frasers L&I Trust is a proxy,... however, if we are into, say the dividends of the AUD, we will be subjected to the company's exchange rate demand, ie,... Frasers will 'makan' pips from us. Because the basic denomination of the underlying mechanism is in the AUD. Frasers will 'hammer' us when they convert back into the SGD for us to collect the divvy,...

Err,... can we avoid this pips loss ?

Added : Especially since the SGD is such a strong currency, IF the SGD should appreciate against the AUD, then we will 'lose more',... this is the PROBLEM of investing in SG REITs. The SGD is strong, reducing the amount collected from overseas assets.

We must do our best to mitigate this forex risk when investing into SG REITs and SG yield stocks,...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 7 2016, 09:26 AM
prophetjul
post Dec 7 2016, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 7 2016, 09:22 AM)


Yes, investing via the recently-listed Frasers L&I Trust is a proxy,... however, if we are into, say the dividends of the AUD, we will be subjected to the company's exchange rate demand, ie,... Frasers will 'makan' pips from us. Because the basic denomination of the underlying mechanism is in the AUD. Frasers will 'hammer' us when they convert back into the SGD for us to collect the divvy,...

Err,... can we avoid this pips loss ?

Added : Especially since the SGD is such a strong currency, IF the SGD should appreciate against the AUD, then we will 'lose more',... this is the PROBLEM of investing in SG REITs. The SGD is strong, reducing the amount collected from overseas assets.

We must do our best to mitigate this forex risk when investing into SG REITs and SG yield stocks,...
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Why not then invest directly into Aus REITS?

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Dec 7 2016, 09:31 AM
Hansel
post Dec 7 2016, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 7 2016, 09:30 AM)
Why not then invest directly into Aus REITS?
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YES, learn the procedures of the ATO and the ASIC and follow them carefully, open brokerage and savings accounts inside Aus, learn the the counters of the ASX, etc,...
prophetjul
post Dec 7 2016, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 7 2016, 09:48 AM)
YES, learn the procedures of the ATO and the ASIC and follow them carefully, open brokerage and savings accounts inside Aus, learn the the counters of the ASX, etc,...
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Unfortunately time does not allow me to venture into Aus securities yet.

Msia, Sg , U.S.....enough for now! smile.gif
Hansel
post Dec 7 2016, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 7 2016, 09:51 AM)
Unfortunately time does not allow me to venture into Aus securities yet.

Msia, Sg , U.S.....enough for now!  smile.gif
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If you have a residential address in any part of Aus, then you can start,.. the mkt is improving after years of being in the doldrums,... smile.gif AUD is getting stronger,...the world is changing after DT came onboard,...
prophetjul
post Dec 7 2016, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 7 2016, 10:02 AM)
If you have a residential address in any part of Aus, then you can start,.. the mkt is improving after years of being in the doldrums,...  smile.gif AUD is getting stronger,...the world is changing after DT came onboard,...
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Maybe Aus will become the next Tiger in the Asean region! smile.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 7 2016, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 03:53 PM)
Wahh, bro,... you teach in the university, is it ??  biggrin.gif  rclxms.gif

I have just two inputs :-

1) If we do your above computation before the elections on Nov 9th,.. is there a possibility that the STI would have beaten the DJIA in both of your above periods ?

2) The performance of the above indices do not take into account the dividend payouts, which are also returns. Add-in the dividend payouts and you get even bigger figures beyond the KLSE return percentages because the numbers would be compounded by the dividend earned in the foreign currencies.
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If we take 8 Nov, here are the numbers :

1 year :

KLCI 1672.00 / 1663.82 = -0.49%
STI 2876.03 / 2820.24 = -1.94%
DJI 17730.51 / 18332.74 = 3.40%

MYR/SGD 3.0031 / 3.0237
MYR/USD 4.215 / 4.2017

The returns in RM terms :

KLCI -0.49%
STI -1.27%
DJIA 3.07%



5 year :

KLCI 1460.13 / 1663.82 = 13.95%
STI 2694.60 / 2820.24 = 4.66%
DJIA 12184.26 / 18332.74 = 50.46%

MYR/SGD 2.4344 / 3.0237
MYR/USD 3.1475 / 4.2017

The returns in RM terms :

KLCI 13.95%
STI 30.00%
DJIA 100.86%


1. DJI climbed close to 1000 points since election. STI climbed close to 150 points. While KLCI dropped close to 20 poiints.

2. Agreed. The returns from dividend will be more in forex since RM lao sai in 2015


Conclusion : for the recent years, long term investment in STI and DJIA is better than KLCI mainly because of RM devaluation. Gains in KLCI is offset by the lost in RM value. KLCI is not a good hedge against inflation compare to investing overseas in forex dollars
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 7 2016, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ Dec 6 2016, 10:37 PM)
If you're willing to fund me then i wouldn't mind icon_rolleyes.gif  icon_rolleyes.gif
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U may contact Ah Long for assistance brows.gif
Hansel
post Dec 7 2016, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 7 2016, 10:04 AM)
Maybe Aus will become the next Tiger in the Asean region!    smile.gif
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This is what I think,...
AVFAN
post Dec 7 2016, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 7 2016, 10:10 AM)
Conclusion : for the recent years, long term investment in STI and DJIA is better than KLCI mainly because of RM devaluation. Gains in KLCI is offset by the lost in RM value. KLCI is not a good hedge against inflation compare to investing overseas in forex dollars
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numbers don't lie.

unless one starts to nitpick to compare only the best counters with the worst.

so, yes, agree with conclusion.

going forward, one has to keep in mind the macros which do not change overnight:

.. usa experiencing some boom now due to trump rallies and feel good employment figures.
.. sg may technically fall into recession by end of this quarter.
.. china remains vigilant to keep RMB "low" to maintain their exports.
.. msia... what else do we not know?
Hansel
post Dec 7 2016, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 7 2016, 10:10 AM)
If we take 8 Nov, here are the numbers :

1 year :

KLCI 1672.00 / 1663.82 = -0.49%
STI 2876.03 / 2820.24 = -1.94%
DJI 17730.51 / 18332.74 = 3.40%

MYR/SGD 3.0031 / 3.0237
MYR/USD 4.215 / 4.2017

The returns in RM terms :

KLCI -0.49%
STI -1.27%
DJIA 3.07%
5 year :

KLCI 1460.13 / 1663.82 = 13.95%
STI 2694.60 / 2820.24 = 4.66%
DJIA 12184.26 / 18332.74 = 50.46%

MYR/SGD 2.4344 / 3.0237
MYR/USD 3.1475 / 4.2017

The returns in RM terms :

KLCI 13.95%
STI 30.00%
DJIA 100.86%
1. DJI climbed close to 1000 points since election. STI climbed close to 150 points. While KLCI dropped close to 20 poiints.

2. Agreed. The returns from dividend will be more in forex since RM lao sai in 2015
Conclusion : for the recent years, long term investment in STI and DJIA is better than KLCI mainly because of RM devaluation. Gains in KLCI is offset by the lost in RM value. KLCI is not a good hedge against inflation compare to investing overseas in forex dollars
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Still,... if we remove the effect by DT, we're still ahead in the STI and in the DJIA compared to the KLCI,... And when the DT effect kicks-in, aka when the wind blows, the KLCI and the RM topples over,... first and the most compared to others,.... sad.gif

We really need a lot of patriotism to stay hard inside this Kerajaan place,...
AVFAN
post Dec 7 2016, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 05:43 PM)
Secondly, I suspect interest rates are going to rise soon,...
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aussie... may cut rates again!

QUOTE
Australia’s Economy Shrinks Most in Eight Years; Currency Slumps
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...currency-slumps
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