QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 12:59 PM)
Good and bad, 2 sides of a coin. USD/MYR v4
USD/MYR v4
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Dec 6 2016, 01:39 PM
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6,614 posts Joined: Mar 2011 |
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Dec 6 2016, 01:48 PM
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 5 2016, 09:57 PM) I have more mixed result between the 2, with time frame of 7-10 years. Ok, since every individual has their own portfolio, why not we compare the Index so we get a general idea which is better RM stock vs Forex stock. Comparing the Index will take away the peaks and dips and show a typical portfolio.1. Some foreign denominated asset still making a loss or at par only. (even after converting to weak RM). While some indeed magnificent gain. 2. Definitely more than 6% pa within this time frame. Fundamentally, the most important is the underlying asset that able to protect the purchasing power. Bought wrong foreign shares in foreign currencies, result can be worst as well. eg. airline stocks, O&G stocks etc. There are plenty of avenue to hedge a weak RM, not necessary must through foreign share with foreign currencies. There are also local feeder funds that feed into overseas fund/asset, they also gain from weak RM similar to (1), just in a indirect way. We use KLCI, STI and DJIA to compare 1 year and 5 year return : 1 year high low : KLCI 1672.00 / 1624.97 = -2.81% STI 2876.03 / 2943.05 = 2.33% DJI 17730.51 / 19216.24 = 8.38% MYR/SGD 3.0031 / 3.1231 MYR/USD 4.215 / 4.4485 Based on the above historical numbers, if we invest RM100k in KLCI 1 year ago, 1 year later (yesterday), the market value is RM97,187.20. The return is a loss of -2.81% If we converted the RM100k 1 year ago into SGD, we will get S$33,298.92. We invest in STI and 1 year later yesterday, the market value is S$34,074.89. We convert back to RM at 3.1231, we will get RM106,419.28, or a return of 6.42% in RM term We do the same for USD and invest in DJIA. The return is 14.38% in RM term For 5 year high low : KLCI 1460.13 / 1624.97 = 11.29% STI 2694.60 / 2943.05 = 9.22% DJIA 12184.26 / 19216.24 = 57.71% MYR/SGD 2.4344 / 3.1231 MYR/USD 3.1475 / 4.4485 The returns are : KLCI 11.29% STI 40.12% in RM term DJIA 122.90% in RM term The numbers speak for themselves. |
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Dec 6 2016, 01:54 PM
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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 5 2016, 10:11 PM) Are u trying to say we need another 1997 econmic crisis? Well I dont think its going to happen. But it would be disastrous if it were to happen again for all. Question is how prepared we are in the event if it really do come? No 1997 is not enough to overcome the structural issue in our economic policy. We need a Greece crisis where unemployment goes up to 25%. Only then we can see changes |
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Dec 6 2016, 01:57 PM
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4,258 posts Joined: Nov 2012 |
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Dec 6 2016, 03:20 PM
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25,802 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Penang |
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 08:08 AM) Well, since you replied me and are willingly doing so,.. okay-lar,.. Diversification is long time championed by me. People who convert into the SGD should not be laying their funds in cash only, as you assumed earlier, come on, bro.... At least now we have a figure. With a figure of an exporter share rice rising over 30% in the last two or three years can easily be beaten with SG REITs and instruments,.... Of course, must convert,.. if don't convert, how to spend in Msia ?? Who asked yu to change at the money-changer ? 1) All the most effective mechanisms to convert your funds in and out. On top of taxation in the different countries, which I have talked about earlier,.... Tell me : why would you not want to diversify your currency holdings into other currencies if you are already earning the RM in this country ? Tell me without saying that we should, but the way I did it earlier was an allegation,... It is just I highlighted there are avenue locally, or RM denominated that one can hedge upon RM weakness as well, not necessary must convert Eg. Invest in Carlsberg Malaysia, one has exposure to SGD. Invest in Ytlreit, one has exposure to Aud. Invest in glove company, one has exposure to USD. Money put in local bank gold saving account in RM, one has exposure to USD (set aside the gold price fluctuation issue) I never say one shouldn't invest abroad nor I am championing RM. In fact I like SG reit and SG banking stock very much at current point. This is what I am highlighting about, not to say RM asset is better than others nor to say shouldn't convert. The fact is those stocks does hedge us against RM weakness and protecting our purchasing power in the process as well. |
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Dec 6 2016, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2016, 03:20 PM) Diversification is long time championed by me. I just read through and browsed across,... okay,... It is just I highlighted there are avenue locally, or RM denominated that one can hedge upon RM weakness as well, not necessary must convert Eg. Invest in Carlsberg Malaysia, one has exposure to SGD. Invest in Ytlreit, one has exposure to Aud. Invest in glove company, one has exposure to USD. Money put in local bank gold saving account in RM, one has exposure to USD (set aside the gold price fluctuation issue) I never say one shouldn't invest abroad nor I am championing RM. In fact I like SG reit and SG banking stock very much at current point. This is what I am highlighting about, not to say RM asset is better than others nor to say shouldn't convert. The fact is those stocks does hedge us against RM weakness and protecting our purchasing power in the process as well. Anybody wants to learn Aussie dividend shares ???? AUD is set to move soon,... |
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Dec 6 2016, 03:30 PM
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Dec 6 2016, 03:36 PM
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#3008
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10,001 posts Joined: May 2013 |
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Dec 6 2016, 03:41 PM
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Dec 6 2016, 03:44 PM
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9,353 posts Joined: Aug 2010 |
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Dec 6 2016, 03:53 PM
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9,353 posts Joined: Aug 2010 |
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 6 2016, 01:48 PM) Ok, since every individual has their own portfolio, why not we compare the Index so we get a general idea which is better RM stock vs Forex stock. Comparing the Index will take away the peaks and dips and show a typical portfolio. Wahh, bro,... you teach in the university, is it ?? We use KLCI, STI and DJIA to compare 1 year and 5 year return : 1 year high low : KLCI 1672.00 / 1624.97 = -2.81% STI 2876.03 / 2943.05 = 2.33% DJI 17730.51 / 19216.24 = 8.38% MYR/SGD 3.0031 / 3.1231 MYR/USD 4.215 / 4.4485 Based on the above historical numbers, if we invest RM100k in KLCI 1 year ago, 1 year later (yesterday), the market value is RM97,187.20. The return is a loss of -2.81% If we converted the RM100k 1 year ago into SGD, we will get S$33,298.92. We invest in STI and 1 year later yesterday, the market value is S$34,074.89. We convert back to RM at 3.1231, we will get RM106,419.28, or a return of 6.42% in RM term We do the same for USD and invest in DJIA. The return is 14.38% in RM term For 5 year high low : KLCI 1460.13 / 1624.97 = 11.29% STI 2694.60 / 2943.05 = 9.22% DJIA 12184.26 / 19216.24 = 57.71% MYR/SGD 2.4344 / 3.1231 MYR/USD 3.1475 / 4.4485 The returns are : KLCI 11.29% STI 40.12% in RM term DJIA 122.90% in RM term The numbers speak for themselves. I have just two inputs :- 1) If we do your above computation before the elections on Nov 9th,.. is there a possibility that the STI would have beaten the DJIA in both of your above periods ? 2) The performance of the above indices do not take into account the dividend payouts, which are also returns. Add-in the dividend payouts and you get even bigger figures beyond the KLSE return percentages because the numbers would be compounded by the dividend earned in the foreign currencies. |
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Dec 6 2016, 03:54 PM
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25,802 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Penang |
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 03:44 PM) This one I didn't study,... The nearest to this would be my exposure in high-yield bond funds denominated in the AUD,... invested in fund houses in Sgp.. I do directly into the country itself,.... If treasuries keep on rising, bond may be a place to avoid temporary.Aud interest rate is at historically low. |
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Dec 6 2016, 03:55 PM
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#3013
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 03:53 PM) Wahh, bro,... you teach in the university, is it ?? In addition to point #2 above, I presume yet to take into a/c bonus, rights n share split tooI have just two inputs :- 1) If we do your above computation before the elections on Nov 9th,.. is there a possibility that the STI would have beaten the DJIA in both of your above periods ? 2) The performance of the above indices do not take into account the dividend payouts, which are also returns. Add-in the dividend payouts and you get even bigger figures beyond the KLSE return percentages because the numbers would be compounded by the dividend earned in the foreign currencies. |
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Dec 6 2016, 03:56 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#3014
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10,001 posts Joined: May 2013 |
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Dec 6 2016, 04:05 PM
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9,353 posts Joined: Aug 2010 |
QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2016, 03:54 PM) If treasuries keep on rising, bond may be a place to avoid temporary. Aud interest rate is at historically low. QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 03:56 PM) Yeah,... I noticed something ;ike what Will said too,... though the RBA stays put, there are some banks inside Aus that up their interest rates. I believe these are early signs that the RBA may hike soon. The RBA stayed put this afternoon,...Yes,.. AUD FD rates are at historic low,... that's why investors inside Australia are now looking hard for yield instruments,........their SMSF funds are not helping much now,... |
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Dec 6 2016, 04:07 PM
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12,290 posts Joined: Aug 2006 |
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Dec 6 2016, 04:24 PM
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48,441 posts Joined: Sep 2014 From: REality |
MIER says ringgit fall temporary, fair value is 4.05 to 4.10 to the dollar
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2085922 really happy if can reach 4.10 level back |
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Dec 6 2016, 04:31 PM
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Staff
25,802 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Penang |
Since the BNM new measure, RM vs USD is moving in very tight range in the region of 4.44xx to 4.45xx
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Dec 6 2016, 04:33 PM
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24,454 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 6 2016, 04:24 PM) MIER says ringgit fall temporary, fair value is 4.05 to 4.10 to the dollar i like this comment:http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2085922 really happy if can reach 4.10 level back On the bid to become a high-income nation, Zakariah said Malaysia had to work 22% harder with the ringgit rate used in the earlier projection at 3.60 to the US dollar compared with the current rate of circa 4.40. we better work "22% harder" from now on. |
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Dec 6 2016, 04:35 PM
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#3020
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