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 USD/MYR v4

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bbgoat
post Dec 6 2016, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 12:59 PM)
Gud for FD lovers but bad for borrowers  cry.gif
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Good and bad, 2 sides of a coin. laugh.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 6 2016, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 5 2016, 09:57 PM)
I have more mixed result between the 2, with time frame of 7-10 years.

1. Some foreign denominated asset still making a loss or at par only. (even after converting to weak RM). While some indeed magnificent gain.
2. Definitely more than 6% pa within this time frame.

Fundamentally, the most important is the underlying asset that able to protect the purchasing power.
Bought wrong foreign shares in foreign currencies, result can be worst as well. eg. airline stocks, O&G stocks etc.

There are plenty of avenue to hedge a weak RM, not necessary must through foreign share with foreign currencies.
There are also local feeder funds that feed into overseas fund/asset, they also gain from weak RM similar to (1), just in a indirect way.
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Ok, since every individual has their own portfolio, why not we compare the Index so we get a general idea which is better RM stock vs Forex stock. Comparing the Index will take away the peaks and dips and show a typical portfolio.

We use KLCI, STI and DJIA to compare 1 year and 5 year return :

1 year high low :

KLCI 1672.00 / 1624.97 = -2.81%
STI 2876.03 / 2943.05 = 2.33%
DJI 17730.51 / 19216.24 = 8.38%

MYR/SGD 3.0031 / 3.1231
MYR/USD 4.215 / 4.4485

Based on the above historical numbers, if we invest RM100k in KLCI 1 year ago, 1 year later (yesterday), the market value is RM97,187.20. The return is a loss of -2.81%

If we converted the RM100k 1 year ago into SGD, we will get S$33,298.92. We invest in STI and 1 year later yesterday, the market value is S$34,074.89. We convert back to RM at 3.1231, we will get RM106,419.28, or a return of 6.42% in RM term

We do the same for USD and invest in DJIA. The return is 14.38% in RM term



For 5 year high low :

KLCI 1460.13 / 1624.97 = 11.29%
STI 2694.60 / 2943.05 = 9.22%
DJIA 12184.26 / 19216.24 = 57.71%

MYR/SGD 2.4344 / 3.1231
MYR/USD 3.1475 / 4.4485

The returns are :

KLCI 11.29%
STI 40.12% in RM term
DJIA 122.90% in RM term


The numbers speak for themselves.

Showtime747
post Dec 6 2016, 01:54 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 5 2016, 10:11 PM)
Are u trying to say we need another 1997 econmic crisis? Well I dont think its going to happen. But it would be disastrous if it were to happen again for all. Question is how prepared we are in the event if it really do come?
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No 1997 is not enough to overcome the structural issue in our economic policy. We need a Greece crisis where unemployment goes up to 25%. Only then we can see changes
Showtime747
post Dec 6 2016, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 08:49 PM)
i have a real example.

in jan 2015, i bought some SGD with RM.

rate at that time was, on my record, 2.6765.

if i want RM today, i will get, on my broker data today, rate of 3.0885.

no interest, but 15% net over 2 years in RM terms.

ok or not? biggrin.gif

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ok and approved biggrin.gif
cherroy
post Dec 6 2016, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 08:08 AM)
Well, since you replied me and are willingly doing so,.. okay-lar,..  biggrin.gif

People who convert into the SGD should not be laying their funds in cash only, as you assumed earlier, come on, bro....

At least now we have a figure. With a figure of an exporter share rice rising over 30% in the last two or three years can easily be beaten with SG REITs and instruments,.... biggrin.gif,.... but it's good if an Msian exporter share can oerform like that. If you wish to be helpful, please tell us the counter.

Of course, must convert,.. if don't convert, how to spend in Msia ??  biggrin.gif  Unless one intends to spend overseas, and perhaps intend to enjoy a life overseas in future, or for the children to study overseas, of course, must convert back to use in MY. That is the whole point of this discussion, right ?

Who asked yu to change at the money-changer ?  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif  One of the skills involved in investing overseas si also to know :-

1) All the most effective mechanisms to convert your funds in and out.

On top of taxation in the different countries, which I have talked about earlier,....

Tell me : why would you not want to diversify your currency holdings into other currencies if you are already earning the RM in this country ? Tell me without saying that we should, but the way I did it earlier was an allegation,...  smile.gif
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Diversification is long time championed by me.
It is just I highlighted there are avenue locally, or RM denominated that one can hedge upon RM weakness as well, not necessary must convert
Eg.
Invest in Carlsberg Malaysia, one has exposure to SGD.
Invest in Ytlreit, one has exposure to Aud.
Invest in glove company, one has exposure to USD.
Money put in local bank gold saving account in RM, one has exposure to USD (set aside the gold price fluctuation issue)

I never say one shouldn't invest abroad nor I am championing RM.

In fact I like SG reit and SG banking stock very much at current point.

This is what I am highlighting about, not to say RM asset is better than others nor to say shouldn't convert. smile.gif

The fact is those stocks does hedge us against RM weakness and protecting our purchasing power in the process as well.


Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2016, 03:20 PM)
Diversification is long time championed by me.
It is just I highlighted there are avenue locally, or RM denominated that one can hedge upon RM weakness as well, not necessary must convert
Eg.
Invest in Carlsberg Malaysia, one has exposure to SGD.
Invest in Ytlreit, one has exposure to Aud.
Invest in glove company, one has exposure to USD.
Money put in local bank gold saving account in RM, one has exposure to USD (set aside the gold price fluctuation issue)

I never say one shouldn't invest abroad nor I am championing RM.

In fact I like SG reit and SG banking stock very much at current point. 

This is what I am highlighting about, not to say RM asset is better than others nor to say shouldn't convert.  smile.gif

The fact is those stocks does hedge us against RM weakness and protecting our purchasing power in the process as well.
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I just read through and browsed across,... okay,...

Anybody wants to learn Aussie dividend shares ???? biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif

AUD is set to move soon,...
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 6 2016, 01:54 PM)
No 1997 is not enough to overcome the structural issue in our economic policy. We need a Greece crisis where unemployment goes up to 25%. Only then we can see changes
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Yeah,... maybe needed something as severe as that, man,.......... sad.gif sad.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 6 2016, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 03:29 PM)
I just read through and browsed across,... okay,...

Anybody wants to learn Aussie dividend shares ????  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif

AUD is set to move soon,...
*
How about invest in AUD via UT in M'sia hmm.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 03:36 PM)
How about invest in AUD via UT in M'sia  hmm.gif
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Bro,... you/re famous, I just saw over at the ASNB thread that our new forummer called you Mr William,... biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif rclxms.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 03:36 PM)
How about invest in AUD via UT in M'sia  hmm.gif
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This one I didn't study,... The nearest to this would be my exposure in high-yield bond funds denominated in the AUD,... invested in fund houses in Sgp.. I do directly into the country itself,....


Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 6 2016, 01:48 PM)
Ok, since every individual has their own portfolio, why not we compare the Index so we get a general idea which is better RM stock vs Forex stock. Comparing the Index will take away the peaks and dips and show a typical portfolio.

We use KLCI, STI and DJIA to compare 1 year and 5 year return :

1 year high low :

KLCI 1672.00 / 1624.97 = -2.81%
STI 2876.03 / 2943.05 = 2.33%
DJI 17730.51 / 19216.24 = 8.38%

MYR/SGD 3.0031 / 3.1231
MYR/USD 4.215 / 4.4485

Based on the above historical numbers, if we invest RM100k in KLCI 1 year ago, 1 year later (yesterday), the market value is RM97,187.20. The return is a loss of -2.81%

If we converted the RM100k 1 year ago into SGD, we will get S$33,298.92. We invest in STI and 1 year later yesterday, the market value is S$34,074.89. We convert back to RM at 3.1231, we will get RM106,419.28, or a return of 6.42% in RM term

We do the same for USD and invest in DJIA. The return is 14.38% in RM term
For 5 year high low :

KLCI 1460.13 / 1624.97 = 11.29%
STI 2694.60 / 2943.05 = 9.22%
DJIA 12184.26 / 19216.24 = 57.71%

MYR/SGD 2.4344 / 3.1231
MYR/USD 3.1475 / 4.4485

The returns are :

KLCI 11.29%
STI 40.12% in RM term
DJIA 122.90% in RM term
The numbers speak for themselves.
*
Wahh, bro,... you teach in the university, is it ?? biggrin.gif rclxms.gif

I have just two inputs :-

1) If we do your above computation before the elections on Nov 9th,.. is there a possibility that the STI would have beaten the DJIA in both of your above periods ?

2) The performance of the above indices do not take into account the dividend payouts, which are also returns. Add-in the dividend payouts and you get even bigger figures beyond the KLSE return percentages because the numbers would be compounded by the dividend earned in the foreign currencies.
cherroy
post Dec 6 2016, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 03:44 PM)
This one I didn't study,... The nearest to this would be my exposure in high-yield bond funds denominated in the AUD,... invested in fund houses in Sgp.. I do directly into the country itself,....
*
If treasuries keep on rising, bond may be a place to avoid temporary.

Aud interest rate is at historically low.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 6 2016, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 03:53 PM)
Wahh, bro,... you teach in the university, is it ??  biggrin.gif  rclxms.gif

I have just two inputs :-

1) If we do your above computation before the elections on Nov 9th,.. is there a possibility that the STI would have beaten the DJIA in both of your above periods ?

2) The performance of the above indices do not take into account the dividend payouts, which are also returns. Add-in the dividend payouts and you get even bigger figures beyond the KLSE return percentages because the numbers would be compounded by the dividend earned in the foreign currencies.
*
In addition to point #2 above, I presume yet to take into a/c bonus, rights n share split too
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 6 2016, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2016, 03:54 PM)
If treasuries keep on rising, bond may be a place to avoid temporary.

Aud interest rate is at historically low.
*
M surprise to c Oz banks up int rate but RBA maintain rates rclxub.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 04:05 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2016, 03:54 PM)
If treasuries keep on rising, bond may be a place to avoid temporary.

Aud interest rate is at historically low.
*
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 6 2016, 03:56 PM)
M surprise to c Oz banks up int rate but RBA maintain rates  rclxub.gif
*
Yeah,... I noticed something ;ike what Will said too,... though the RBA stays put, there are some banks inside Aus that up their interest rates. I believe these are early signs that the RBA may hike soon. The RBA stayed put this afternoon,...

Yes,.. AUD FD rates are at historic low,... that's why investors inside Australia are now looking hard for yield instruments,........their SMSF funds are not helping much now,...
limeuu
post Dec 6 2016, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 6 2016, 01:05 PM)
i have been selling usd buying myr since oct till now...guess i'm swimming solo here.
(my usd holding was from the 3.x period)
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Why are you converting back?....you got good investment in myr?....
nexona88
post Dec 6 2016, 04:24 PM

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MIER says ringgit fall temporary, fair value is 4.05 to 4.10 to the dollar
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2085922

really happy if can reach 4.10 level back blush.gif
cherroy
post Dec 6 2016, 04:31 PM

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Since the BNM new measure, RM vs USD is moving in very tight range in the region of 4.44xx to 4.45xx
AVFAN
post Dec 6 2016, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 6 2016, 04:24 PM)
MIER says ringgit fall temporary, fair value is 4.05 to 4.10 to the dollar
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2085922

really happy if can reach 4.10 level back blush.gif
*
i like this comment:

On the bid to become a high-income nation, Zakariah said Malaysia had to work 22% harder with the ringgit rate used in the earlier projection at 3.60 to the US dollar compared with the current rate of circa 4.40.

we better work "22% harder" from now on. biggrin.gif
SUSthe99percent1
post Dec 6 2016, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2016, 04:31 PM)
Since the BNM new measure, RM vs USD is moving in very tight range in the region of 4.44xx to 4.45xx
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Exporters arent pleased though.

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