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 USD/MYR v4

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AVFAN
post Sep 28 2016, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 28 2016, 09:00 PM)
OPEC members gathering at wat time for discussion?
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10pm local.
AVFAN
post Sep 29 2016, 07:30 PM

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QUOTE(drake88 @ Sep 29 2016, 07:06 PM)
I would see it at this angle. Buy USD during election,

Election going to happen on Nov 2016
if Trump win ... USD will most likely weaken ...
If Hillary win ... USD will most likely stay at position...

Dec 2016
Most likely Fed rate hike. It will strengthen USD.

So both ways , buying USD is not too bad a investment.

If anyone have different opinion, please kindly share smile.gif
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do not count only on USA events.

looks closer to home as well - gdp growth, budget 2016 amendments, budget 2017, will bnm cut rates in nov, etc.

and watch oil price... given all the "opec talk and no action yet" fanfare.
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2016, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 30 2016, 11:38 AM)
still at 4.14305 MYR  despite OPEC agreement to cut production
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it's more like "we agree to an agreement to cut later"; the proposed cut is not big enough, say many.

and that is now overshadowed by the deutsche bank crisis; $ rising, oil falls, rm falls.

everyone is expecting the german gomen to bailout the bank; until then, all markets are dropping.
AVFAN
post Oct 5 2016, 07:16 PM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Oct 5 2016, 01:32 PM)
Malaysia GDP to slow to 4.2% this year, says World Bank

They said in Dec it will be 4.6%.
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not to worry, our gomen will fix, i.e. massage it somehow.
pm dept's slush fund can spend another 10 bil last minute, 4.5% achieved! tongue.gif


usa rate hike back in play... maybe even nov, not dec.
oil price rising due to opec's "nov potong".

yet rm is approaching 4.20.

will be interesting to see if bnm will cut rate in nov.
AVFAN
post Oct 10 2016, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 10 2016, 09:26 AM)
Ringgit decouples from price of crude oil
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...e-of-crude-oil/
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crude is past 50, will have much less impact on RM.

now, it's more about mgs, bnm rates, bijan budget and money disappearing from xmdb's.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 10 2016, 10:01 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 11 2016, 12:04 PM

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4.20 in sight.

oil goes higher, rm goes lower.

the only explanation: latest 1mdb fallout in sg, big corruption in sabah, no action locally.

investor confidence will erode further.
AVFAN
post Oct 11 2016, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 11 2016, 03:17 PM)
Trading @ 4.169x now
Btw, I have yet to smell the aroma 4.20  brows.gif
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something i juts noticed...

the RMB is sinking, RM with it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2...by-sinking-yuan
http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-fixes-yu...llar-1476065356
AVFAN
post Oct 11 2016, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 11 2016, 06:32 PM)
China is one of Malaysia trading partners & also major investors.. So RMB & RM do related each other..
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not only that.

there is a lot of china money in MGS.

if and when they pull out, will need big big arab donations.
AVFAN
post Oct 11 2016, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(KTCY @ Oct 11 2016, 07:20 PM)
what happen ? Why suddenly shoot to 4.19x ? unsure.gif
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tmrw, u will probably read something from bernema or armbank.

"RM expected to strengthen to 3.50 after budget 2017 day." tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Oct 12 2016, 01:31 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 11 2016, 03:17 PM)
Btw, I have yet to smell the aroma 4.20  brows.gif
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10 Oct 2016 17:15 UTC - 11 Oct 2016 17:28 UTC USD/MYR close:4.20290 low:4.12765 high:4.20290
AVFAN
post Oct 12 2016, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(KTCY @ Oct 12 2016, 12:43 PM)
Hold until dec?
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usd, sgd, aud... hold.

rm, rmb, gbp... don't hold.
AVFAN
post Oct 12 2016, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 12 2016, 04:27 PM)
I need to hold RM for daily consumption wo  tongue.gif
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 12 2016, 04:33 PM)
sure we needed to hold MYR..

because we staying in Malaysia  laugh.gif
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well, that proves you actually read! laugh.gif

i meant "hold" as in "have too much, dunno where to put". biggrin.gif



AVFAN
post Oct 12 2016, 10:29 PM

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for rm, impt dates coming up:


oct 21 - budget 2017 - bigger or smaller deficit?
nov 2 - fomc meeting - fed hike rate or in dec?
nov 23 - bnm meeting - will opr decr?
nov 30 - opec meet vienna - to potong or not to potong?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 12 2016, 10:33 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 13 2016, 12:17 PM

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QUOTE(aromachong @ Oct 13 2016, 09:09 AM)
4.5 incoming
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this is now looking very possible.

same management, same style.

bigger budget deficit and opr cut expected soon.

but will take time... maybe mid 2017.

last low was 4.458 in sep 2015.
AVFAN
post Oct 13 2016, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 13 2016, 09:27 AM)
Ringgit likely to trade in the RM4.15-RM4.30 range
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...415rm430-range/
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given today, more like 4.20-4.30.

4.40 will be quite hard to cross.

but, we'll see as bijan is still driving the bus.
AVFAN
post Oct 13 2016, 07:50 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 13 2016, 07:47 PM)
Any possibility for PBOC to adjust the reference rate of RMB lower?
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deutsche bank thinks so:

Deutsche Bank Sees Yuan Falling 17% as Outflows Accelerate
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...utflows-quicken
AVFAN
post Oct 16 2016, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 16 2016, 11:29 AM)
Next week will b interesting for MYR as PM will table 2017 Budget
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the main impact may not be the budget but if HUDUD will be tabled and passed.

come think of it, the extra RM weakness last week may be due to that.
AVFAN
post Oct 17 2016, 09:32 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 16 2016, 10:38 PM)
U mean they will present Hudud bill on 21/10 too?
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not fixed, may be tabled, may not be; if tabled, may be passed, may be rejected.

but it would be logical to think that investors do not like this kind of uncertainty.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 17 2016, 09:35 AM
AVFAN
post Oct 20 2016, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Oct 20 2016, 06:51 PM)
Malaysia's GDP growth for 2017 to rise to 5%, says Najib[/url]
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can't expect him to say 4%, a reduction, right?


official gdp growth projections, -1%.

official inflation rate +2%.

official rm/usd rate x1.1.

official debt/gdp +5%.


historically, that usually comes out to be about right. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Oct 20 2016, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Oct 20 2016, 08:42 PM)
Tomorrow's budget could also be key since if corp and personal tax are reduced that may or may not help consumption which is a key component of GDP.
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expectation is corp tax will be cut, but not personal (maybe a bit more relief):
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...as-2017-budget/

what i will be most interested in is the 2017 budget deficit since 2016 is unlikely to meet target 3.1%.
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/355682

that will dictate borrowings and hence rm strength.
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