if u have a lot, can sell 1/2 if profit good.

other 1/2, wait for outcome of coming major events:

.. fomc 21 sep
.. opec meet 28 sep

also, watch this:
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

mgs yields suggest foreigners are NOT dumping them yet, will provide some strength to the RM.

this probably the only major RM pillar as gdp, fdi, exports, oil price and others are not really favoring the RM at this time.

goldman says 25%.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-s...ents-2016-09-13

the way it is going, 4.3 by year end, 4.5 by 2017 end is very possible.

assuming:

.. fed hike rate by dec 2016.
.. crude price stays in 40-45 range.
.. continuous gomen overspending/wastage, larger and larger budget deficit and debts.
.. 1mdb saga continues, xmdb emerges
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...aga-hurt-demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...alters-with-oil


actually, we should start thinking and prepare for a worse scenario - global markets spiral down as $300 trillion in zero or negative rates finally break; excess crude oil being burned or dumped into the oceans to reduce excessive stocks;

good luck to all!.

trillions, worldwide, incl derivatives.

Fitch: Property Developer Lending Could Stoke Risks in Malaysia
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fitch-proper...-030550468.html


gomen-developers may be pushing the idea of more and easier loans to house buyers.

becos a lot of new builds unsold, developers crying.

if approved, more debt.

household debt/gdp will get closer to 100%.

will have an impact on rm.

what if cut int rate in nov?!

it will continue in the foreseeable future.

everyday, there is news or some smart plan that will push the rm down.

there is no news or plans in sight at all that will strengthen it.



it is very bad news for a lot of people, incl these students:



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 15 2016, 03:04 PM

the tabled one will probably attempt to do that by showing a smaller deficit than budget 2016, bn mp's will just ok even if it looks unreal.

then, budget 2016 actual will need a big amendment becos of overspend.

then, amend 2017 budget with big deficit.

we see that every year, more so this time.

local people may get fooled, but int'l banking and foreign funds community will see it right through, no use.

can expect attempts to keep gdp growth with more debt and weaker currency, higher inflation.




world bank, adb have been "warning" gomen since 2 years ago that there is little room for the economy in case of a downturn and global problems. becos of high debt, low productivity, low inv, big civil service, corruption.

and here we are - low oil prices, slowing global growth... and 1mdb, incr br1m cash, high household debt.

dare not imagine what will happen if a major global financial crisis comes now.

very good chance.

russia just cut int rate by 50bps, oil price falls accordingly.

russia is a major oil producer-exporter, that will pull oil price down as ruble weakens against usd.

that in turn will make usd gain over other currencies.

if fed raise rate next week, may even see 4.25.



but... who knows?

u mean put yr money using the head or the heart?

easier to use the heart, more difficult to use the head!




higher inflation is what the fed is looking for.

i will go with the market - no hike in sep but in dec.

so, >4.2 should come in dec.

to avoid that, putrajaya need to hike gst, raise int rates, produce a handsome budget and stop borrowing - almost impossible for all of that.

today, rm gained.

becos opec says maybe deal coming, so oil price up 2%.

whether action or just talk, wait sep 27-28.

fomc meeting sep 21-22, rate hike or not.

so, if no rate hike and opec deal, rm will likely get to 4.0x.

if rate hike and opec no action, likely 4.2x.

if one happen, the other nothing, stay 4.1x.

place yr bets!

i'll bet on that too, by dec.

low chance of fed hiking rate in sep but it will come in dec.

oil...

10% oversupply, stocks will continue to build into 2017.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/19/oil-prices-...ersupplied.html

and opec's cry wolf will not work anymore.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/19/cramer-ridi...ate-prices.html

probably.

there was one analyst who predicted opec will do nothing but talk price up and keep pumping more.

until they all find themselves in a bind, hopeless, forced to agree to cut production, not "freeze".

and that happens only when crude price goes to <30 again.

will he be right?

Bank of Japan to Expand Monetary Base, Keep Negative Rates at -0.1%


yen dropping, rm too.

next, 2am - fed decision.

no fed rate hike.

but this new thingy will help oil/rm. whether it will eventually amount to something, yet to know.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/23/saudis-offe...put-report.html


so, next...

1. opec meeting outcome - freeze or potong or free for all?

2. bnm rate cut or not in nov?

3. fed rate hike or not in dec?

the game continues...!

we won't be here if we know what and what will happen.

we will be sipping champagne on a yacht off the coast of morocco everyday then.


will be ok if we can just protect our hard earned rm and not let some scums rob and erode the value.

the more u trade, the happier the banks are.

seriously, i think the volatility will die off.

best not to trade too much but hold on to your calculated bets.

at least until year end.

that's what it has been in the past.

42-48, small movements only.

<40 or >50, huge movements.



our media tend to play down everything. not unexpected, but will this new development and related effects impact the rm in a major way?

do u mean someone or some group has been directly manipulating the rm and will stop manipulating soon?

can u share who u think these people are and how they do it?

so far, for 2016, RM hasn't done too badly against other currencies.

about same position as canadian, nzd, sgd.

rest of the year, we'll have to see oil price, budget, gdp, debt levels...

it is basically saying can't do much with monetary policy (can't cut opr much, low reserves) and can't do much with fiscal policy (high spending, low income, already deficits).

which means... u know what.



but tmrw, some local bank or menteli rubbish all that, say all is good.