Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed
16 Pages « < 5 6 7 8 9 > » Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 USD/MYR v4

views
     
AVFAN
post Oct 21 2016, 08:00 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
hope everyone read the budget, at least the summary.

a lot of SPENDING. biggrin.gif

revenues, income, investment... i didn't see much.


will be hard to achieve this:

• In addition, the government is expected to achieve a fiscal deficit target of 3 per cent of GDP in 2017 compared to 3.1 per cent this year.


RM is not going anywhere, imo.

AVFAN
post Oct 22 2016, 11:19 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(kit2 @ Oct 21 2016, 09:19 PM)
rm not going anywhere is better than rm going down.
a lot of spending but where does the money come from? smile.gif
*
with that kind of budget, it will only overspend and under invest next year.
i see rm creeping >4.25 by year end.

where will the money come from?
still plenty of ways - borrow more, deals with china, raise gst later.
can also improve cashflow - delay gst refund claims, employ more staff to chase corp/personal income tax payment, delay payment to suppliers, etc.

QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 21 2016, 09:51 PM)
remember jibby saying going to china soon devil.gif  rolleyes.gif  sweat.gif
*
never heard of "balik cina"? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 22 2016, 11:20 AM
AVFAN
post Oct 24 2016, 11:12 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
why does BNM report reserves in RM rather than USD?

QUOTE
Bank Negara’s international reserves stay above RM400b
FMT Reporters | October 24, 2016
Central bank reports increase in international reserves to RM405.6 billion, keeping up momentum and outperforming previous six months.
Bank negara malaysia, BNM

PETALING JAYA: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has continued to maintain its international reserves above the RM400 billion mark.
Last Friday, BNM reported its international reserves stood at RM405.6 billion as at Oct 14. This followed its previous report which showed the amount was RM405 billion as at Sept 30.
It was the first time in six months that BNM had breached the RM400 billion mark.
Over the previous six months – March 31 through Sept 15 – BNM had reported its international reserves being between RM380 billion and RM392 billion.
Last March 31, Bank Negara had reported that the international reserves took a massive drop to RM381.6 billion from the RM412.3 billion reported as at March 15.
In its latest report, BNM also said the RM405.6 billion in reserves would be sufficient to finance 8.5 months of retained imports and is 1.2 times the short-term external debt.
BNM’s international reserves comprises foreign currency reserves, International Monetary Fund reserves, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), gold, and other reserve assets.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...y-above-rm400b/


AVFAN
post Oct 25 2016, 11:21 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
all is quiet after budget 2017 news, analysis, comments.

same same... usd 4.17x, sgd, 3.0x, aud 3.1x, gbp 5.1x...

next few weeks, rate will be all about bnm meeting, oil price, potus elections, fed.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 25 2016, 11:24 AM
AVFAN
post Oct 27 2016, 05:56 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 27 2016, 02:12 PM)
MYR strengthened overnight BUT weakened when Msia started today,... must be somebody here commented on something again,...  sad.gif
*
4.17.... 4.15....4.19 now.

I think its just the usuals.... budget feel good then no good, oil price movement.

And maybe more now think the budget is overly optimistic on revenue and deficit.

Now that even cooking oil subsidy is largely removed, it says a lot... will likely need to issue new big sukuks.

Or raise gst.

No way out.
AVFAN
post Oct 27 2016, 07:50 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(aromachong @ Oct 27 2016, 07:17 PM)
i don't have any reason to giv myself why myr will head to north instead of south and slowly become 2nd Indonesia + with our current prime minister , money laundering, 1mdb , etc...

all those damage cannot be reversed hence u know the long time effect...

sad but truth.. dont hope myr will strengthen ever  bangwall.gif
*
that is the main course.

never mind the appetizer and dessert.

have to agree - how can any currency strengthen given all that shizzz... tongue.gif

if a nation's currency can rise in a regime with mega money disappearing, borrowing to the hilt, free money for voters and majority approving/not minding it, there can be no poor nation on the planet!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 27 2016, 07:52 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 27 2016, 10:53 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 27 2016, 10:39 PM)
MYR have make a U turn from 4.15 ytday to 4.20 now
*
reading a bit more, i think it's the latest slew of news about soros-bijan-china trip-1mdb-fitch.

google to find all the news...
AVFAN
post Nov 1 2016, 11:33 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
consider...

.. fed likely to hike in dec, not nov.
.. oil price still at 47-50, not lower; opec just approved "strategy".
.. bijan balik cina trip got many billions coming.
.. bnm may not cut rates until next year.

rm may stick around 4.1x for a while.
AVFAN
post Nov 2 2016, 11:00 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 1 2016, 11:58 AM)
Well,... the RM has not appreciated this morning after the news came out !!! Still waiting to change over,.....
*
ya, signing rm144bil loan and contract deals seem no help to the rm.

4.195.
AVFAN
post Nov 2 2016, 07:15 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(aromachong @ Nov 2 2016, 06:51 PM)
but long term for MYR .. u know .. i know.. everybody know..
*
how long is long? biggrin.gif

your 4.5 dec 2016... i still think too ambitious.
dec 2017, can. tongue.gif

QUOTE(Ramjade @ Nov 2 2016, 07:05 PM)
Cannot say like that one. If policy not good, then can cause US to fall into another recession which we can see USD/MYR at 3.3 again. devil.gif
*
if usa falls into recession, china and the global economy goes down with it.

5.0 it will be. laugh.gif

actually, i somehow think bijan/ameno/bn/bnm is aiming for that - nice round figure, "good for exports and tourism", right?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 2 2016, 07:16 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 3 2016, 08:30 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 3 2016, 04:24 PM)
Dollar Falls as Fed Needs More Evidence for December Rate Hike
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ember-rate-hike
*

QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 3 2016, 05:47 PM)
Back in 2007/8, the windows remained open for a very long time,... nd we had a lot of chance to think and think and evaluate again and again of a counter is good,... but in the last few years, not really anymore, if a bad news comes out,the mkt will drop, and the moment we start thinking, the prices have gone back up.
*
my read is this...

it's all a setup! laugh.gif

fed WILL hike on dec 14, usd keeps rising.

us markets will gyrate no more than a couple of hours, then move higher again.

becos of so much liquidity, so much cash now parked in bonds and cash waiting to pump up the equities.

they just need potus and fed issues out of the way, anyway.


but oil... what i read... opec talk-talk kings wont/can't do/agree anything, will just continue to try to talk it up, global surplus will swell... i will avoid this sector.

bottomline - no chance rm will strengthen from current position.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 3 2016, 08:40 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 4 2016, 01:06 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 3 2016, 11:35 PM)
If the world sees the current world news that Msia will cooperate with China on a lot of things, then the MYR may rise,...
*
those projects will take a long time to materialize; some don't even have feasibility studies yet.

and when they start... will china bring in the cash or do ipo's one by one at bursa to get epf and the rest to fund them?! tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 4 2016, 07:44 AM
AVFAN
post Nov 4 2016, 12:13 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 4 2016, 12:02 PM)
Talk is ez as jv/mou can b terminated later
In addition, execution risk still remains an issue
*
we all know that move was more of a political positioning.

the real cash... who knows?

but... talk-talk, dog & pony shows can make an temp impact like opec's been doing for 2 years now.

for the next yr or so... more than likely we see incr debt levels to fund all the committed budget expense.

so much to spend/throw/pocket but few sources of income.

maybe a currency devaluation by 10% or so?! tongue.gif

AVFAN
post Nov 4 2016, 12:28 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 4 2016, 12:19 PM)
Most likely they will recalibrate 2017 Budget
*
the thing is whatever they will recalibrate, certain huge and sacred expenses cannot be reduced, can only be increased.

ge14 in 2017 or 2018, remember?!
AVFAN
post Nov 4 2016, 08:33 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 4 2016, 02:15 PM)
Yeah,... the ridiculous RM weakened again today,....
*
not ridiculous at all.

bent on wasting/pocketing money; falling oil price; almost zero actual new investments, incr borrowings; gangsters running around the city...

if that can drive a currency up, pigs can fly.
AVFAN
post Nov 5 2016, 01:49 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 5 2016, 12:57 PM)
WTI Crude oil continued to drop as main OPEC members unable to reach an amicable understanding
Next week could c MYR test 4.15 mark from 4.21 level now
*
u mean 4.25.

after potus elections nov 8, usd likely to strengthen after retreating lately; fed rate hike imminent dec 14.

QUOTE


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 5 2016, 01:50 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 5 2016, 01:54 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Ramjade @ Nov 5 2016, 01:51 PM)
But if Donald Trump becomes the president, I think it will be postponed?
*
i think not.

potus does not decide on such policies.

my read: fed is ready and will hike, whoever wins.
AVFAN
post Nov 7 2016, 12:35 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 3 2016, 11:35 PM)
If the world sees the current world news that Msia will cooperate with China on a lot of things, then the MYR may rise,...
*
no surprise, the opposite happened.

foreign investors are not as gullible as some would hope.

QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR: Foreign investors turned more aggressive in their trading of Malaysian stocks in the week ended Nov 4 at RM948.1mil – the fifth highest weekly outflow this year – said MIDF Equities Research.

It said on Monday net foreign selling dominated the entire trading week. The attrition turned ugly in the last two days of the week as the amount offloaded exceeded RM250mil per day.

“On Friday, the liquidation hit -RM348.6mil, the third highest in a day this year,” it said.

MIDF Research said the cumulative year-to-date net foreign purchase of Malaysian-listed shares was now only +RM1.06bil, down from a peak of +RM6.47bil in April.

It pointed out foreign investors had redeemed -RM5.41bil since April compared with -RM19.5bil and -RM6.9bil net outflow in 2015 and 2014 respectively.
“The market was heavily supported by local institutions last week. Retail participation remained depressingly weak.

“Retail average daily trading volume remained below RM500mil five weeks in a row now. We reiterate that the market has not seen the extent of retail withdrawal since early 2013,” it said.
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/unimpres...llers-in-bursa/
AVFAN
post Nov 9 2016, 10:44 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
Trump about to win.

Market sees that as anti trade.

Reactions so far...

Usd, oil, stocks, fall.

Bonds, gold, rise.

Will be explosive later in the afternoon, tonight.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 9 2016, 10:53 AM
AVFAN
post Nov 9 2016, 04:24 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,453 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(bee993 @ Nov 9 2016, 03:44 PM)
I nt worry instead i goin to stock up more usd
*
Ya, buy more if u can.

This trump saga shook world markets today, now setlling down a bit.

Usd may have softened but against yen, euro only.

Most others incl rm, sgd, aud, nzd, krw, idr.... all lost.

Worst was mexico.

16 Pages « < 5 6 7 8 9 > » Top
Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0804sec    0.38    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 3rd December 2025 - 02:38 PM