QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 9 2016, 05:16 PM)
api said +4.4mil.if eia says same or higher, your 4.25 will be here.
and if fed hike rates (still >60% priced in after trump win), 4.30 will be on the cards by dec 31.
USD/MYR v4
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Nov 9 2016, 05:27 PM
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#141
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All Stars
24,454 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
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Nov 10 2016, 11:32 AM
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#142
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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 10 2016, 10:28 AM) many currencies got battered too since the oil slide.BUT... the RM is one continues to slide down when others recovered a good bit. e.g. brazilian peso, south african rand - they were among the worst but have recovered a lot in last year. the trouble with our situation here is not unlike everything else with some entrenched mentality over the decades: to improve, no need to do much; just wayang and wait for others to do worse, u come out better. education ranking - "we are still better than @#$". illicit money outflows - "we are only no. 5, not #1". xmbd theft - "others before us also did same, also stole". currency - wait for usa or uk to f up, their currencies fall, hooray, RM will strengthen. the stark facts laid bare: .. oil price down. .. unabated leakage and wastage in big civil service. .. massive losses in xmbd and the likes. .. little real productive investment made in last few years. (china new cash won't come so soon, so easy.) .. some lost hope, going away; others expect more free money; yet others continue to steal with approval. .. energy, resources and time spent in cabinet, parliament, poliz, courts on race-religion politicking, punishing those who don't kneel. so, who is left working to produce something of value to sell or export? a currency like that can strengthen?! 4.30 anytime now with fed hike looming. 2017 may see 4.50. come 2020, m may get to see 5.0 - n's gift to him. |
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Nov 10 2016, 02:27 PM
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#143
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24,454 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
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Nov 10 2016, 07:45 PM
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#144
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 10 2016, 06:46 PM) 4.295.the way it's going, tmrw it will be. we will read what bnm, bernama or ambank say tmrw. i think what we are seeing now is a mix of bursa selloff, mgs liquidation,forward hedging and capital flight. becos trump and congress will probably rip TPPA apart soon. while mo1&co. will have to wait for beijing cash that may never come. |
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Nov 10 2016, 08:40 PM
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#145
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 10 2016, 08:14 PM) too fast... something else is happening...?this was <6 months ago. gbp 4.0? >5.3! this much about local banks/economist's palantir. http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/06/154359/...-pound-sterling |
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Nov 11 2016, 12:22 AM
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#146
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 10 2016, 11:32 PM) pretty bad, still going down.4.362 just now. -4% in 2 days... err... think it is at or near all time low with aud, yen, sgd. there should be headlines tmrw... your christmas party next month will cost 5% more. |
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Nov 11 2016, 10:58 AM
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24,454 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(OPT @ Nov 11 2016, 10:29 AM) the first one from bernama reported this - in true bn style - for fools.they don't know or don't want anyone to know anything, do they? QUOTE Ringgit opens higher in early trade http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...-early-trade-2/ This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 11 2016, 10:59 AM |
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Nov 11 2016, 04:39 PM
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 11 2016, 04:28 PM) this big spread capital control is not going to end well.buy $, pay with a lot more RM. sell $, get much less RM. this kind of situation usually spark more fears, real or unreal. when control lifted, more capital will fly, might move to 5.0 for a while. QUOTE The shock move has left traders in a lurch, and sparked fears that the ringgit - already battered in the past two years - would face huge selldown when the controls are lifted. It is understood that no information was given as to whether the currency controls would be lifted ahead of the weekend. http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/m...overnight-rates |
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Nov 11 2016, 05:05 PM
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 11 2016, 04:52 PM) About RM11 bil Govt bonds will mature next week that, last night's offshore forward pricing and latest bnm statement... (plus all the billions disappeared, more to disappear)...Unless rollover, otherwise v may witness another round of volatility can't help recalling tom yum goong crisis 1997. 20 yrs later, nasi lemak crisis 2017 in the making? just joking... |
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Nov 11 2016, 06:54 PM
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 11 2016, 06:04 PM) BUt,... I'm sure no one would want to chg USD into us inside Msia now,... money-changers would close their doors already,.... QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 11 2016, 06:23 PM) There is NO ann't of capital controls, and certain financial instruments are still able to proceed, but this process is nonsensical, bonds are not redeeamable back to the original currency, and spot trades MUST follow our levels,...yeah, sure, can still go,.. but not following worldwide levels,... this is bs, man,.... this BNM bs is a stop-gap measure, a desperate attempt to calm fears. hopefully bring the RM to an "acceptable" rate. at the end of all this, we will have to accept what the world think the RM is worth - higher or lower - given our gdp growth, trade balance, debt levels, illicit funds outflow, corruption tolerance, etc... maybe someone will start a poll... 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, 4.5, 5.0...?? whatever, i think i will go grocery shopping big time tmrw... hope the stores have not raised prices already for my fav meats. |
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Nov 11 2016, 07:13 PM
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 11 2016, 07:05 PM) Yeah,.... i think there is no best time, shouldn't have done it at all.The questions now then :- 1) When will BNM lift this stop-gap measure and go back to normal business ? 2) What happens to the RM when the stop-gap measure is lifted ? Just occured to me,... probably BNM will lift this when he thinks the RM will strengthen,... right ? BUt when will this day come ?? becos the RM is not traded offshore. hence if things are really good and sound, the onshore rates will eventually prevail over the offshore rates - let market forces work it out themselves. by doing this, it sends a signal - something is actually sick. the longer they take, the worse it gets eventually, imo. |
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Nov 11 2016, 07:33 PM
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#152
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 11 2016, 05:54 PM) notice:.. mgs yield popped, 3 days: 3.67->3.78->3.94. .. xe.com - flatliner at 4.38885. i read that as the world is waiting for BNM to lift control. then, rate should go >4.4; borrowing cost to spike higher. if bnm does nothing and keep control... hmm... that's a new one, duuno! maybe like u said, nobody will buy mgs anymore. |
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Nov 11 2016, 09:40 PM
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#153
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this reuters write up explains a lot of things.
QUOTE BUSINESS NEWS | Fri Nov 11, 2016 | 4:18am EST Malaysia, Indonesia markets roiled as investors scramble for hedge on Trump Emerging markets in Southeast Asia were slammed on Friday as Donald Trump's shock victory in the U.S. presidential election reverberated around the world, with Malaysian and Indonesian central banks acting to try to defend their currencies as investors sold stocks and bonds. The latest selloff was triggered by investors revising their expectations, with a growing consensus that Trump's economic policies will be inflationary and push U.S. rates up faster than previously thought, driving funds out of emerging markets and into dollar-based assets. Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries have spiked 41 basis points in the past two days as investors scrambled to readjust positions. Emerging markets in Asia are particularly vulnerable to hot money outflows, and investors have been unsettled by the deep uncertainty over how broad U.S. and international policy will ultimately play out under Trump. During Asian trading, the Malaysian ringgit sank to more than 12-year lows in the offshore market. The ringgit's one-month non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) MYR1MNDFOR= lost as much as 3.7 percent in the offshore market from the previous close to 4.5395 per dollar, its weakest since at least September 2004, according to Thomson Reuters data. By contrast, the ringgit spot MYR=MY barely moved at 4.27 per dollar with liquidity extremely thin. As a result, the dollar/ringgit's NDFs premium over the dollar/ringgit spot increased to 0.2695, the widest since at least April 2008, according to Thomson Reuters data. Bank Negara Malaysia, however, made sure the spot rate remained relatively stable in the onshore market, traders said. Malaysia's central bank governor Muhammad Ibrahim told a news conference, called to release upbeat economic growth and current account data, that the ringgit should not be priced out of sync with fundamentals. And, he said, the central bank had a responsibility to tell banks to take temporary measures to calm the market. "We don't want to be dictated by factors that have nothing to do with the country's fundamentals," Ibrahim said. Later, the central bank issued a statement in which it added that it was providing necessary liquidity in the currency market. Traders in Kuala Lumpur said the central bank had told them not to quote offshore rates and was approving large ringgit sell orders on a case-by-case basis. The tactic seemed to work with onshore trade reportedly very thin. HOT MONEY HEADACHE However, rising yields on Malaysian government bonds showed how much pressure the ringgit has come under. Yields on 10-years have jumped 22 basis points since Wednesday, while those on 20-year and 30 year bonds have soared 21 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, over the same period. Almost 40 percent of Malaysian government bonds are in foreign hands. Malaysian stocks .KLSE were down almost one percent. Indonesian markets also dived in early trade. Indonesia has enjoyed relatively high inflows into stocks and bonds markets in the past few months, making it vulnerable to hot money outflows at times of uncertainty. The rupiah IDR=ID fell as much as 2.6 percent, while the Jakarta Composite Index .JKSE closed 4 percent lower, posting its biggest one-day drop since Aug 2013. Nanang Hendarsah, an official at BI, said the rupiah's sharp drop was caused by sudden hedging activity in the NDF market, but noted outflows from Indonesian markets were contained so far. Bank Indonesia intervened in both forex and bonds markets, deputy governor Mirza Adityaswara said. The central bank is ready to buy government bonds and will maintain the rupiah's value to reflect Indonesia's economic fundamentals, he said. By trading drew to a close in Jakarta (0900 GMT), the rupiah had recouped some of its losses to stand 1.1 percent weaker than the previous close against the dollar. The yield of Indonesia's 10-year government bonds jumped on Friday to 7.462 percent, its highest since July 1, from 7.417 percent. Foreigners own 38.4 percent of outstanding Indonesian government bonds. Philippine stocks were also caught in the selloff with the main index .PSI tumbling more than 2.5 percent. The Philippines peso PHP=PDSP fell to 48.955, its weakest since September 2009. For investors, particularly for those in emerging markets, the short term might prove a head-spinning affair. "Mr Trump's economic policies present an upside risk to rates," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ. "This, coupled with the depreciation pressure on Asian currencies, has put serious pressure on Asia's carry trades." (Reporting by Fransiska Nangoy and Jongwoo Cheon; Additional reporting Hidayat Setiaji; Writing by Nachum Kaplan; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore) http://www.reuters.com/article/us-emerging...SKBN1360AZ?il=0 |
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Nov 12 2016, 02:34 AM
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#154
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BNM new look website:
http://www.bnm.gov.my/ MGS Yields: http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=2014_govtsecuritiesyield |
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Nov 12 2016, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 12 2016, 10:23 AM) it is unclear what is going on now as BNM hasn't lifted the control or quasi FX shutdown.xe.com's offshore rate 4.285 may be just an implied one from BNM's onshore middle rate 4.285 5pm closing yesterday. we'll have to wait monday, see what happens - BNM action/inaction and bondholders' behavior. QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 12 2016, 10:30 AM) Not that I am always advocating for the Singapore Dollars, but certainty is very important for the majority of us,... not the punters and the speculators, of course,... agree.This article proves it. The incident yesterday stands for this thinking of mine, gentlemen,.. : http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016...over-positions/ the SGD is a more stable one for longer term hold since very simply, it is priced as a currency basket of SG's major trading partners incl - USA, China, Malaysia. while USD/SGD is now 1.41, it will probably stick around 1.40 in the mid term. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singap...ed/3280944.html |
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Nov 12 2016, 11:54 AM
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#156
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24,454 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(xpmm @ Nov 12 2016, 11:28 AM) yes as long as umno in power, myr is hopeless, but holding sgd or usd etc.. the money is not working for us, yes true we can preserve the value of the currency but interest rate is sooo low there, exchange and keep under the bed is even worst. This issue has been discussed and hammered a hundred times here. once i thought of converting all my saving into sgd in Singapore and invest in fsm singapore, but the ut there is not doing well too. at least keep in myr fd is 3% +, buy local unit trust like kenanga growth fund etc.. have the potential to get 10% +. thats the dilemma. Yes, keeping fx idle is a bad idea unless it is small amount and/short term. The 3-4% pa int is fine but when u get a 5% pa depr against another currency, it starts to look miserable. It also about when u do something and the duration; no instant magical cepat kaya.0 Consider SG reits which are fairly stable, cheaper now due to rising us bond yields. Many people here been doing for a long time, check the sgreits thread. Cap gain, dividends and fx gain grossed 12-15% pa in the last few years. Nobody knows the future, but i still see that as a great choice among all choices at this time. |
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Nov 12 2016, 01:43 PM
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#157
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everyone is upset RM is down and down.
but hey! some menteri will soon be saying "we are still better than "@#$%". guess which ones did worse than RM in the last 1 year? i tell u, it is hard to find more than 2! hint: uk pound, russian ruble, south african rand - about same, not worse or better. This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 12 2016, 01:52 PM |
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Nov 12 2016, 01:59 PM
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#158
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QUOTE(kit2 @ Nov 12 2016, 01:47 PM) that, for sure.medical insurance will face double whammy: .. hefty premium increase for same RM benefits. .. lower value benefits as hospitals raise prices + GST. as more people turn to gomen hospitals already faced with budget cuts and increasing foreign workers, it's going to get chaotic. |
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Nov 13 2016, 05:10 PM
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QUOTE(limeuu @ Nov 13 2016, 01:53 PM) Hot funds are moving back to the USA, so demand for usd will persist for some time....if bnm don't react, the myr will stay low, even lower than now....or bnm can respond by selling usd, but that will deplete reserves....or they could continue current directive to ignore nfc overseas and only quote local rates, effectively fixing exchange rate, but potential dire consequences the longer this control is in place.... Good analysis.If the Fed raise rates....the outflow will worsen....unless bnm raise rates as well....which will dangerously increase defaults of local debts... Caught between a rock n a hard place. High debt, 40% mgs held by foreigners. While boasting strong fx reserves, it is really not that much. Sluggish growth, want to cut rates but may now be forced to hold or raise. Not to forget msia, a small country, is world #5 in illicit funds outlflow... u wonder what bnm has been monitoring. Intervention, more controls, pegging will bring worse results. We will see tmrw. I expect it to get ugly. |
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Nov 14 2016, 12:14 AM
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 13 2016, 04:48 PM) local analysts...better read the latest int'l news on the subject! https://www.ft.com/content/d666ad68-c9a7-3e...3c-c4b0a52e9045 https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/zar/5728-...a-uk-trade-deal some foreign analysts think this may be just the beginning of an "EM currency crisis" given the flight of hot money from these countries. and if anyone is asking why we not peg the RM, think again. egypt just unpegged and its pound lost 50% of the value. plus IMF bailout. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...s-on-trump-risk given that, i would think some other EM pegs may fail soon. This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 14 2016, 12:26 AM |
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