how else to comment?

beat up a currency very easy - plenty of examples beside here - zimbabwe, argentina, turkey...

strengthen, very hard, try naming them.

try naming 3 mighty proud nations with weak currency; try naming 3 problem dogged countries with strong currencies!

famous quote: "too strong no good, too weak no good, need just right."

so, what is "just right" for RM?

3.5 previously was too strong?

now 4.5 is just right?

or 5.0 will be just right?

and... "just right" for WHO?!

u mean depr against $, which is correct since it is the #1 currency, many internationally traded items priced in $.

in the last 10 years, not many has stood strong against it - i can only think of Yen, SGD, swiss franc, AUD.

others lost incl RMB, Euro, GBP.

the worst losers, u already know.



the worst hit people are the pensioners/retirees.

next worse are low-mid salaried workers.

more so when most food and daily essentials are imported.

crime rate will rise for sure.

so, i don't buy this moronic statement "weak currency can be beneficial".

if u mean holding cash under the pillow, i agree.

but i would think those who do that do that with small amounts only.

the bigger amounts would have gone into foreign investment vehicles one way or another.

part 1... our power brains incl mo1 already answered u: "it's all external, beyond our control, not too bad".

part 2... i seriously think that is a real possibility given the way things are at this time.
watch dev in run up to GE14.
here, politics totally drive economics, like it or not, talk or not, deny or not.

u read wrong la!

i said holding cash under pillow is not good.

i have a real example.

in jan 2015, i bought some SGD with RM.

rate at that time was, on my record, 2.6765.

if i want RM today, i will get, on my broker data today, rate of 3.0885.

no interest, but 15% net over 2 years in RM terms.

ok or not?


i know for a fact some of them moved part of their production offshore since a decade ago.

they are smarter than most people here. i will not worry for them.

new relevant reads:

both excellent comments!

some think achieving 15% over 2 years or 7.5% pa is silly.

some think that is a winner.

due to very varied expectations, experience and risks taking.

the fact that the FD thread is now v14 and is one of the most popular threads in LYN say something, doesn't it?

and currently, 4% pa attracts a lot of people, incl me!


i oversimplified the real example case when i said "15% over 2 years".

the money wasn't kept under the pillow. i don't keep cash idle, nobody should.

it was put in sgreits, earned another 11% in dividends in 2 years, no cap gains.

so, total was 26% in 2 years or 13% pa.

now, that's certainly ok, no?!


essence of the story - those who took action to protect their life savings with major fx denominated but low-mid risks methods in the last few years achieved good results.

question is will it continue? that, with this 2 yr old thread into v4, u hv to make yr own mind or come back here only to read in a couple of years.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 6 2016, 09:49 AM

..

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 6 2016, 10:52 AM

aug 2015, we were discussing below.

very heated, plenty of skeptism, many hopefuls.

today, results overshot.

but ex rate is a dynamic thing, will keep finding the right spot with global financial gravity as the months and years go by.

and given actual ex rates now, my bet is on BNM to RAISE rates in the next few months.



do read up interest rate parity!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 6 2016, 03:59 PM

i like this comment:

On the bid to become a high-income nation, Zakariah said Malaysia had to work 22% harder with the ringgit rate used in the earlier projection at 3.60 to the US dollar compared with the current rate of circa 4.40.

we better work "22% harder" from now on.

can eat 22% less then.

That, i agree.

This bnm move is not surefire, maybe backfire.

Every interference will come with a price.

Yet to see...



“The central bank has a very fine line to walk, because on the one hand we need a strong global trade environment and obviously a devalued currency will help with that.

“At the same time we are facing a weak global economy, [and] we shouldn’t exaggerate the effects of a devalued currency on the export performance of the economy.

news...

numbers don't lie.

unless one starts to nitpick to compare only the best counters with the worst.

so, yes, agree with conclusion.

going forward, one has to keep in mind the macros which do not change overnight:

.. usa experiencing some boom now due to trump rallies and feel good employment figures.
.. sg may technically fall into recession by end of this quarter.
.. china remains vigilant to keep RMB "low" to maintain their exports.
.. msia... what else do we not know?

aussie... may cut rates again!

Well, we have been talking about this at least 2 years now, and the rm has basically been falling and falling.

Not much chance to buy fx at great rate.

It is like holding a losing stock.

When it recovers a bit, the instinct is watch, hope it can recover further.

But after a short reprieve, it falls again.

It takes a lot of nerve to cut losses and move on.

If u hv been converting bit by bit over time, thats quite ok, better than no action at all.



Lately, there is a lot of talk, many fingers pointing at "speculators" as the main culprit.

To me, that is an attempt to create a partially fictitious enemy, like the usual local politicking.

If the fundamental weaknesses are not addressed, more controls and propaganda cant do much, may make it worse eventually.

Major investors and biz people, foreign or domestic, are not as gullible as some powers like them to be.