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 USD/MYR v4

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AVFAN
post Sep 1 2016, 11:17 PM

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i just took a look at the 1 week charts.

one would think it's jus tusd strong making rm weak.

but no...

euro, pound, aud, veit dong, thai baht, korean won, rmb, turk lira, brazil real....

all same, rm lost to all.

no need to check the rest.





AVFAN
post Sep 1 2016, 11:21 PM

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QUOTE(aromachong @ Sep 1 2016, 11:18 PM)
with our weak fundamental and our leader's scandal its a BIG NO for RM to be strong and win  bye.gif
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that is a given.


i'm just wondering beside rate hike possibility and low oil prices, are there more reasons for this dive.

like foreign funds pulling out, local capital outflow, huge borrowings in the making... and if they know something we don't...??

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 1 2016, 11:26 PM
AVFAN
post Sep 1 2016, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(aromachong @ Sep 1 2016, 11:22 PM)
foreign funds mostly pulling out that is the main cause imo
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have u read any new report, data on this recently?
AVFAN
post Sep 1 2016, 11:28 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 1 2016, 11:25 PM)
because it's confirm MO1 is Jibby?  hmm.gif

so gonna be charge in international court  confused.gif
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i doubt it.

that dahlan stunt is actually an attempt to clear him - "if doj does not name him, he is not involved" = "usa says he is not guilty."
AVFAN
post Sep 1 2016, 11:29 PM

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QUOTE(aromachong @ Sep 1 2016, 11:27 PM)
post #896

that is my own opinion .. gov not stupid to publish all .. haha.. else they make shame of themselves
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no ler... such debt data, if it is int'l money, foreign agencies will know and publish.

may be coming out soon...?
AVFAN
post Sep 1 2016, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(aromachong @ Sep 1 2016, 11:31 PM)
in the meantime, it's real impossible for myr to gain any strength
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like i said, if a currency can strengthen like that, all currencies can do same by kleptocrats stealing, cutting interest rates and gdp decline.

strange world, it would be.
AVFAN
post Sep 2 2016, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Sep 2 2016, 08:19 AM)
Found RM still strong against the yen.
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r u sure?

yen rising against usd.

usd rising against rm.


AVFAN
post Sep 2 2016, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Sep 2 2016, 09:55 AM)
See for yourself.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=MYR&to=JPY&view=1M

Miss selling my yen at around 24.8, now 25.3 region.
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i see what u mean...

2% diff 1 month high and low.. ok.

very hard to pick such highs and lows in such a short time, need a lot of luck.

that is same for other currencies - usd 4.0/4.1, sgd 3.0/2.95...

3 months, 6 months, 1 year... rm is losing all the way, for all of them.
AVFAN
post Sep 2 2016, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Sep 2 2016, 10:43 AM)
I guess I was "lucky" to buy USD at 4.01 (TT 4.036) 2 weeks ago.
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this is the thing about hindsight.

4.01 = lucky.
3.98 = very lucky.
4.05 = not so lucky.

if usd had fallen and rm goes to 3.95, lucky becomes unlucky, not so lucky becomes ass luck! laugh.gif

short term... very hard.


AVFAN
post Sep 2 2016, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 2 2016, 10:58 AM)
If 3.88 = extremely lucky  tongue.gif
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in reality, if one has been in fx in whatever form, over the long term, one would have bought and sold at all kinds of rates.

it is the final realized figure that i meaningful.

i have bought usd at 3.1, 3.5, 3.9, 4.4. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 2 2016, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 2 2016, 11:29 AM)
Must b very painful for u to purchase @ 4.40
Having said tat, number still numbers as long as d intended purchase is meant for specific purpose
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4.4 is surely bad but it's the total that matters.

there is also a second part - what was done with the currency.

keeping cash in drawer, putting in stocks or fx trading... that actually has a bigger impact in the longer term.
AVFAN
post Sep 2 2016, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(aromachong @ Sep 2 2016, 04:53 PM)
my crystal balls tell me it will head to south lol... dont blame me if my crystal ball not working ok? i forgot to polish it
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chances r u will be right.

even if jobs report is not so good, market will still price in a rate hike for dec and rather than sep - rm can't gain big.

by dec, maybe bnm will cut rate again. tongue.gif

will just take time, can't rush it.

rm is not going anywhere.


AVFAN
post Sep 6 2016, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 6 2016, 08:36 AM)
HSBC expects another 25 bps cut in OPR
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...bps-cut-in-opr/

If cut materialize, MYR may say Hello to 4.10 again
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may get to 4.1 before that.

fed's hike in sep almost zero chance now, maybe in dec.

yet rm depr against all others.

usd 4.081
sgd 3.007
aud 3.11
uk pd 5.44

crude oil price gained last 2 days.

maybe something else happening...?

we know there is a lot of foreign/china money in mgs now - this one may determine rm in the coming weeks/months.

AVFAN
post Sep 9 2016, 08:44 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 9 2016, 10:00 AM)
Awaiting for MYR to touch 4.10 again
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almost there, next week maybe.

all it took for rm to go to 4.097 was a few words...

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in another speech low interest rates are increasing the chance of overheating the U.S. economy. Gradually tightening monetary policy is appropriate to maintaining full employment, he added.

AVFAN
post Sep 9 2016, 09:46 PM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Sep 9 2016, 09:40 PM)
If they don't raise either in Sept or December it will probably be back below 4.
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in my mind, they will raise, just once this year, like last year.


the interesting thing will be whether bnm will cut rate in nov.

and/or loosen credit, let people borrow more, let household debt go even higher.

everyday, there is news like... developers can't sell units despite lots of goodies, car dealers squatting flies, banks firing staff, etc.

the economy is not well.
AVFAN
post Sep 9 2016, 10:40 PM

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usd touched 4.105.

but not only usd...

euro, pound, sgd, yen, rmb, won, baht all gained over rm just the same.

ya, oil falls 2.5% but it gained 5% yesterday.


what's else is happening to the rm?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 9 2016, 10:43 PM
AVFAN
post Sep 11 2016, 10:37 AM

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some data here on foreign buying of mgs...

QUOTE
Then in April, it was reported that China’s government has started buying more Malaysian government securities (MGS) and this inflow of new money could possibly rise to 50 billion yuan (RM30bil) in total or 8.5% of Malaysia’s total outstanding MGS in early April.

On Nov 23, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced that China would buy more MGS, issue yuan bonds in Kuala Lumpur and grant local institutional funds a quota of 50 billion yuan under the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor programme to invest directly in Chinese equities in the mainland.

“This has led to Malaysia’s foreign bond holdings going back up to over 50% and also gave our ringgit some form of stability,” says Astramina Advisory Sdn Bhd managing director Wong Muh Rong.

Foreign ownership of Malaysian government and corporate bonds rose to a 22-month high of RM240.9bil in July from RM235.2bil in June.

In particular, foreign ownership of Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) increased RM5.8bil in July to RM209.7bil. Foreigners now own 51.9% of the total outstanding MGS.
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/china-th...tends-lifeline/

AVFAN
post Sep 12 2016, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(koonghx @ Sep 12 2016, 12:27 AM)
I have this to deal with..
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i feel you, does look bad.

won did not lose much to usd in the last month.

so rm lost a lot to won... 5%?

QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 12 2016, 03:32 PM)
MYR depreciated further to 4.122x now
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4.137.

4.20 now becomes a real possibility since these rate hike jitters will not stop until after fomc sep 20-21.



anyone planning to buy korean phone, japanese car, american tablet or aussie beef, better go buy and stock up now!

hell, with rmb also gaining 3% against rm, yr beijing cabbage and preserved veg prices will also get raised soon! tongue.gif




AVFAN
post Sep 12 2016, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(koonghx @ Sep 12 2016, 06:48 PM)
I kept a lot of MYR.......
Basically lost money..
Good thing I found a way now to buy Korean won below xe.com rate..

So, this downfall, made me now become Korean won seller  icon_idea.gif  brows.gif
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that's good! rclxms.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 13 2016, 06:56 PM

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fed sep rate hike fears killed with dovish fed speaker; maybe fears moved to dec.


now, there is this to contend with:

Oil Glut Will Last Longer Than Previously Thought, IEA Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...sisting-in-2017

keep yr usd. biggrin.gif

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