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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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skty
post Jan 8 2021, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Jan 8 2021, 02:22 PM)
Inb4 u die die can't teach a crab walk straight whistling.gif
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rclxub.gif

ok. I shut up. laugh.gif
Rinth
post Jan 8 2021, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Jan 8 2021, 02:21 PM)
ya but how do you interpret the earning into value of the company?
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well thats when ppl use PE, NTA etc etc to value it....

What i cannot accept is that ppl are not using 2021 earning as basis, but using 2022 as basis....

Its like today i own a company sdn bhd that earn RM 10mil per year on 2021@ worth RM 10 per shares, but foresee the earning will become RM 2 mil in 2022, then ppl ask telling me that they'll buy my company today at 2022 price @ RM 2 per shares......wth? Then i might as well earn the RM 10 mil 1st untill year 2021 then next year only sell?

Of course stock market doesnt work that way. That why probably i cant be an wise investor in stock market after all bangwall.gif bangwall.gif
halotaikor.
post Jan 8 2021, 02:37 PM

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hi. why my CIMB CDS account unable to buy US stock ? no problem with other exchanges. but only for US exchanges the Order Pad is greyed out.
ChAOoz
post Jan 8 2021, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 8 2021, 01:18 PM)
We have CIMB and TA Securities already valuing based on FY22 numbers already, which isn't surprising considering the next quarter, TG is already reporting its Q2 FY 2021 numbers already.

Now the numbers used in the table are from TG's own table...

user posted image

Now using the fy 2022 estimates profits from TG table, we have the following table....

NOSH used here is 8.2 billion shares

user posted image

so for example... IF we think/assume the boys/gals from CLSA has always the most consistent/most fair estimates then using CSLA estimate profit of 4.135 billion will equate to an eps of 50.43 sen.
Now we can use the table ... maybe in the following way...

1. Now if we think TG should trade based on a 17x PE, then based on CLSA numbers, TG should be worth ..... 6.05  sweat.gif  sweat.gif

2. Or if we say... we wanna go fishing ... we think a 10x fy21 eps is a good fising price... then we should fish TG when it's around 5.00 as suggested by the table....

3. Or based on current price ... we want to know based on fy 22 eps, what's the current PE? well, the table suggests 11.9x ..

4. Fart this nonsense table.... now is 2021.... TG should be valued based on 2021 numbers.  laugh.gif

 
icon_rolleyes.gif
ChAOoz .... comments? smile.gif
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Expensive if you buy for fy22 and beyond based on the analyst eps fy22. Current single digit p/e might tempt a few to go in or those who think profit normalisation will not come so fast.

But ultimately future is expensive and kinda hard to resell it out when the time come when eps start going down. Someone will be catching tomorrow falling knife if unable to timed it well.

crystalclearlah
post Jan 8 2021, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(halotaikor. @ Jan 8 2021, 02:19 PM)
hello. what can i do if my remisier dont work anymore? how do i get a new remisier ?
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I have a good remisier.. do pm me for the contact if you're interested
prophetjul
post Jan 8 2021, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Jan 8 2021, 02:31 PM)
well thats when ppl use PE, NTA etc etc to value it....

What i cannot accept is that ppl are not using 2021 earning as basis, but using 2022 as basis....

Its like today i own a company sdn bhd that earn RM 10mil per year on 2021@ worth RM 10 per shares, but foresee the earning will become RM 2 mil in 2022, then ppl ask telling me that they'll buy my company today at 2022 price @ RM 2 per shares......wth? Then i might as well earn the RM 10 mil 1st untill year 2021 then next year only sell?

Of course stock market doesnt work that way. That why probably i cant be an wise investor in stock market after all  bangwall.gif  bangwall.gif
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i think the abnormal event of Covid fueling the glove frenzy is what is causing theese ppl tp be cautious about the sustainability of the earnings when a non covid year arrives and normality is observed.
Will such gargantuan numbers of gloves will still be required? Who knows?
a$hton_Li
post Jan 8 2021, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(brokenbomb @ Jan 8 2021, 02:24 PM)
Everyone enter their trade using TA

Then when the price drops

Everyone hold or didn’t cut loss because of FA
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Well, this is true one way or another..
To determine what Company to invest based on their fundamental
& entry with TA, and hold for a very very very long time
ChAOoz
post Jan 8 2021, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Jan 8 2021, 02:09 PM)
The company earning everyone know whats the level d......nothing to discuss edi....problem is ppl taking 2022 earning as current stock price......thats why need to see the price now and not worry much on the fundamental...
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Fundamentally the big4 is a 800m and below per annum PAT company. 800m also kinda high side already.

Compare this to similar 800m pat company and their market cap, you will roughly get your true value if no additional market participant like the glove craze involve.

Just have a look at similar earnings co like klk, scientex, simedarby and their market cap.
MedElite23
post Jan 8 2021, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Jan 8 2021, 02:21 PM)
ya but how do you interpret the earning into value of the company?
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This reply is actually for the silent readers who are interested in fundamental analysis, for I don’t doubt your ability in valuing a company bro tongue.gif

I think FA is an intricate process and requires meticulous calculation and thinking,definitely not as easy as the metrics of valuation (PE,PB,DE,ebita,NPM etc.) you commonly see online. Secondly you need to think independently and separate yourself from the crowd,yup, easy said than done, especially when emotions are in play.

There are many books written by fund managers/investors worth a read, you may find yourself benefit more from these people than the usual suspect of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet lol. In fact, I’d go so far to say Warren Buffett isn’t always transparent with his investment strategy, he commonly uses analogies that sound simple but offer no concrete benefit to investors who want to learn the technical part of investment.

Personally, my investment philosophy is inspired by Peter Lynch and Howard Marks. Anyone interested I FA can search up their books. Btw, Philip Fisher’s common stock uncommon profit is worth a read too. Here are 15 points you need to ask yourself when you value a company,according to Philip Fisher. Good luck! thumbsup.gif

user posted image
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2021, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Jan 8 2021, 02:31 PM)
well thats when ppl use PE, NTA etc etc to value it....

What i cannot accept is that ppl are not using 2021 earning as basis, but using 2022 as basis....

Its like today i own a company sdn bhd that earn RM 10mil per year on 2021@ worth RM 10 per shares, but foresee the earning will become RM 2 mil in 2022, then ppl ask telling me that they'll buy my company today at 2022 price @ RM 2 per shares......wth? Then i might as well earn the RM 10 mil 1st untill year 2021 then next year only sell?

Of course stock market doesnt work that way. That why probably i cant be an wise investor in stock market after all  bangwall.gif  bangwall.gif
*
all kinds la... some even use 2023 or 2024 - sure "normalize", ASP crash, too many players, over supply, no earnings, worthless la.

but for say, tesla... in 5 years time, got laser blasters, anti gravity cars, teleport machines... nothing is too high.

QUOTE(halotaikor. @ Jan 8 2021, 02:37 PM)
hi. why my CIMB CDS account unable to buy US stock ? no problem with other exchanges. but only for US exchanges the Order Pad is greyed out.
*
CDS is for bursa.

for US or any foreign bourse, u need to sign separate forms - talk to yr broker.
Jitty
post Jan 8 2021, 02:48 PM

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Wow, what happen to glove counter today?

Careplus 20%
Supetmsx 6%


AVFAN
post Jan 8 2021, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 8 2021, 02:39 PM)
i think the abnormal event of Covid fueling the glove frenzy is what is causing theese ppl tp be cautious about the sustainability of the earnings when a non covid year arrives and normality is observed.
Will such gargantuan numbers of gloves will still be required? Who knows?
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that has always been the big question.

becos it has so many uncertainties, it is very open, u get all kinds of views, estimates, earnings, PER, etc.

since nobody "really know", will u consider actual current data from QRs, info from the glove makers/sellers?

or the chartists, artists, analysts, IB's or "JPM 3.50"? laugh.gif

AVFAN
post Jan 8 2021, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(Jitty @ Jan 8 2021, 02:48 PM)
Wow, what happen to glove counter today?

Careplus 20%
Supetmsx 6%
*
must be shorties giving up, closing positions.
adam1190
post Jan 8 2021, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 8 2021, 02:51 PM)
must be shorties giving up, closing positions.
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rss volume has not been moving for few minutes to top glove..
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2021, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Jan 8 2021, 02:53 PM)
rss volume has not been moving for few minutes to top glove..
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that's good, will come soon then! biggrin.gif
squarepilot
post Jan 8 2021, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jan 8 2021, 01:46 PM)
that one was because of Aspion issue puke.gif
pinksapphire
post Jan 8 2021, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 8 2021, 02:51 PM)
must be shorties giving up, closing positions.
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How does this drive the stocks up? Sorry I can't understand sad.gif
HereToLearn
post Jan 8 2021, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Jan 8 2021, 02:59 PM)
that one was because of Aspion issue  puke.gif
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It fluctuated between 15-20 from 2013 to 2018 though
https://www.msn.com/en-my/money/stockdetail...pglov/fi-alav7w
annoymous1234
post Jan 8 2021, 03:05 PM

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Another big blow https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2021/...variants--study
MedElite23
post Jan 8 2021, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Jan 8 2021, 03:01 PM)
How does this drive the stocks up? Sorry I can't understand sad.gif
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Buying force (driving the price up) is so strong, that those who bet the stock price will plummet give up betting because if the buying force continues to be so strong, their loss will be uncapped. Sky is the limit lol. Now without the resistance from “shorting”, the price will go up without...resistance...lol tongue.gif rclxm9.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 8 2021, 03:08 PM

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