cos MYR kaboom against USD?

PLUS....maybe some of these funds are inside the portfolio at high %?
i think kimyee has about 9% of AMPRECIOUS

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jan 11 2016, 10:20 AM


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Another round of red today.

For new young investors, good for you. You are investing at the right time. For older investors in the 40's onwards or those who are 100% invested in equity funds with not much bullets left, not so good.

DCA or VCA will only work if we can invest a reasonable amount every month or quarterly. For e.g. we have invested RM50K into Ponzi 2 and it will now sink like the Titanic for the next few years because of the China exposure before rebounding.

We say to ourselves, we will do the smart thing and practice DCA or VCA. We will put in RM100 every month into Ponzi 2. That is a bit like using a pail of water to douse the fire from a burning house.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jan 11 2016, 11:40 AM

My CIMB global titans losing4% and AmAsia Pac equity lost 5%.

I plan to top up the 2 above, any suggestion?

PS: Amcommodities worse, lost 13%
Am Precious metal lost 8%! any suggestion brother?

This post has been edited by guy3288: Jan 11 2016, 01:11 PM

Continue:

On China & Asia-Pac:

d) It cannot be denied that China is the major buyer of Asia-Pac goods. Aust, MY, SG, Vietnam all are very much dependant to Big Brother China for its export. Hence, when China slows down, all are expected to be affected.

e) China fundamental is strong, despite its slowdown. At its , planned slowdown to 6.5 - 7% p.a. growth, is still much higher than its regional countries. Take M'sia for example, our growth rate is only at 4.5%, and that is not a planned slowdown.

f) On RMB devaluation; China has such a huge forex reserves (USD 3,400 Billion) worth versus USD 115 Billion for USA. With such massive forex reserve, China can basically dictate how much they want the RMB to be wrt USD. If China wants to devalue RMB, they can. If they want to increase RMB value, they can. But China knows that they cannot devalue RMB too much, and if they do that, the rest of the region will suffer. It serves China no purpose to be surrounded by unhappy neighbours.

On a side note, as of Q4Y2015, M'sia forex reserves stands at USD 94Billion, which is not too bad for a country so small.

China stock market: what china stock market is experiencing now is what M'sia stock market is like in the mid 80's to early 90's. Full of punters and speculators. Hence, expect the market to be extremely volatile. It is a growing pain process. But, fundamentally, the numbers shown that China is very strong financially. The volatility is caused by speculators.

Xuzen

see red red just try luck top up.
got 0% fee purchase,
topped up 2k each CIMB titans, EI global emerging and AmAsia pac.
hopefully can sell by next month.if not keep.

On US & Europe

g) US is the largest market in the world and is a very matured market. Its stock exchange is so efficient, it is almost impossible for any mutual fund to beat the index. That is why to invest in US, it is best to go the ETFs or passively managed index fund.

h) When one is talking about US, one cannot stay away from the topic of Fed raising rate. Basically, the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rate. So far, inflation is manageable, unemployment numbers are within target. So, the Fed will raise interest rate in small baby steps.

I) For those studios type, CFA material, what happens to stock market when interest rate increase? The academics will say stock market will drop. Everything else being equal, when rate naik, risk free rate up, the stock market price to drop to compensate for the increase in risk free hike. But, remember this: this very low interest rate regime is not normal and when fed raise rate, they are actually "NORMALIZING". i.e., going back to what it is suppose to be. Hence the stock market already priced in. Also, take note that the hike is only 25bps and is easily absorbed by the market.

II) US equities are not at any more risk than usual. However, for bonds, the risk of interest rate hike will be greater. Avoid sovereign bonds if possible.

To put it in perspective:

I) Overweight US equities
II) Overweigth China and Japan (esp JP)
iii) Maintain M'sia neutral (home ground advantage)
iv) Maintain neutral on Europe
v) Underweigh govt bonds and ASEAN equities (Viet, INA & Thailand)
vi) Brazil and Russia avoid and all commodities exporting countries.

Disclaimer: The avoid are not my views but is sharing from what I heard from the speaker at my CPD event.

p/s For me, I will still maintain my current asset allocation:

Titan for its US, Eurozone & Japan exposure.

Ponzi 2.0 for its Asia-Pac ex Japan exposure. Ponzi 2.0 is a good proxy for China since a lot of its holding are in regional countries that serve Emperor China, but with less risk as it is not direct exposure to A-share. and the fund is spread around a few countries.

Eastspring Small-cap for Malaysia small to mid cap exposure.

M'sia Corporate Bonds (Libra-Asnita bond) and / or Money Mkt fund to create stability in your portfolio.

Xuzen

-----------------------End of commentary ------------------------------

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 11 2016, 02:58 PM

My suggestion is:
Go back to investment basic.

When you invest in an equity fund, like Global Titans, you should be ready to hold for 3 years or more.

When did you start investing in Global Titans? Did you do DCA/DVA?
I only started investing in this fund last year, and until today it still records 2+% profit.

Wanna follow last year (2015) performers?
will history repeat itself?
015 Top And Bottom Equity Funds: Top Funds Achieved Double Digit Returns In Volatile Year

http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...atile-Year-6687

personally,
this (well, when it gets worse - currently no big deal) is where my 1/3+/- of my asset allocation (AA) in dry powder / bullets (Fixed Income / Cash) comes in.

Note - my AA excludes emergency funds,
thus the 1/3+/- of AA in Fixed Income is in effect "blood on street / lelong" bullets.
The other 2/3 is ongoing VCA since.. fear / greed may affect when i start deploying the dry powder in 3 tranches.

that's just me. Yeah, i know - if kaka doesn't happen, my dry powder of 1/3+/- of AA sitting around zzz..

How do U manage Vanguard 2015?
constant asset allocation +/- XX% movements, then only trigger rebalancing?
OR the typical "once a year rebalance no matter what"?
OR something else?

Maybe I'm too heavy on fixed income at 61%. 9% in RHB Islamic bond, 8.5% in RHB EM bond, 8.5% in RHB ATR, 30% in CMF and the rest in various bond funds for switching purpose. Follow FSM advice, cut back on equity allocation.

For the 1st time FSM did not led us to Holland

you have 3 out of 5 funds at about 8.5% ea in the list as in post# 1183.
total about 25% of portfolio value in the list.....maybe that is one of the reason your IRR still up while others are down.


This post has been edited by T231H: Jan 11 2016, 05:02 PM

My topped up SHCOMP and HSI big jump. Good news for today.

Hope it stay up for the next few days.

It seems to be whoever top up later these days benefit Who can be patient reap the benefit.

I think Global Titans is a good fund and worth topping up.

I am not holding AmAsia Pac equity. But it's track record doesn't look so good. If you still have faith in the fund for the long run (another 2 years run?), then you should top up.

Finally AmCommodities and Am Precious Metals. As you know, these are extremely HIGH RISK portfolios. I won't even consider them as forming part of my long term portfolio. Their Sharpe ratio are -0.19 and -0.77 respectively. Am Precious Metals has never registered any profit for the past 5 years since it was formed. My humble view, it should only form, if at all, 5% of our total portfolio (both funds combined). So have you reached the 5% limit yet?

I suspect you fall under the high earner/income/investor category. Therefore you don't need to take so much risk to gain profit. For e.g., you invest RM300K and earn 7% return from unit trusts per year using a balanced portfolio. Your paper profit is RM21K.

Another investor invest RM100K and earned 15% return p.a. using an aggressive portfolio. His paper profit is RM15K.

You still beat him hands down and made an extra RM6K using a more conservative investing method.

At the end of the day, it is your hard earned money. You have the make the final decision about your investing style or whether you should cut loss on any of your unit trusts.

anyone here invest in ETF?

Currently, my method is as per my earlier posting on 7.1.2016.

I am running 4 separate FSM accounts.

(a) Primary Account - already topped up to the max $. No more fresh investment. Going to use VA every quarterly and reduce the equity exposure if necessary.

(b) Secondary Account No. 1 - Same as above.

© Secondary Account No. 2 - Using RSP.

(d) Secondary Account No. 3 - Using RSP.

Hopefully it will work out.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jan 11 2016, 06:21 PM

Malaysia or USA?

hi guys, any idea why is AmAsia Pacific Equity Income fund so volatile? Drop so much compared to other funds e.g. CIMB Asia Pacific Dynamic Income Fund, Kenanga Asia Pacific Total Return Fund.. regretted choosing this fund.