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 Fundsupermart.com v13, Merry X'mas and Happy 牛(bull!) Year

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xuzen
post Dec 17 2015, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(BestWorker8-5pm @ Dec 17 2015, 10:54 AM)
First time purchaser, inflation rate leading, FD rate cannot catch up..
Come to the point fund will be good buy, but target 1-3 years holding, maybe 4x of FD rate then sold..
But kaboom or financial storm could be happen, sound unsecured..  cry.gif
all fund buyers got any brilliant idea?
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First dating, cost of getting marry getting higher, my salary cannot catch up..
Come to a point wanna date a good girl, but target 1 - 3 years dating, maybe 4x of salary dowry then marry..
But kaboom or don't work out could happen, sound unsecured..: cry.gif
all daters got any brilliant idea?

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 17 2015, 02:21 PM
xuzen
post Dec 17 2015, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 17 2015, 11:31 AM)
lol not even worried about my unit trusts la. just weather the storm. I just need someone to help me understand how the increase in fed hike will affect us so i can prepare/invest/hold down wisely
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Fed rate up, US equity rally... Titan up, you win some

Fed rate not up, Emerging Mkt rally... Ponzi up, you win some.

Titan down, Ponzi down.... your CMF up.... you win also.

Diversity rulez!

Apa lagi lu mau?

Xuzen
xuzen
post Dec 19 2015, 08:50 PM

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I am reversing my earlier decision to take profit from Titan. Instead now I am topping up on Titan to ride on the upward momentum of the Fed rate hike and MYR/USD forex.

On the local front, I am under-weighting local big cap / blue chip / index linked fund; neutral / hold on small-cap and going towards over-weighting on local corporate bond.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 19 2015, 09:47 PM
xuzen
post Dec 21 2015, 11:35 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 19 2015, 09:56 PM)
dry.gif your balls lose credibility liao
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But but but my earlier decision was pronounced before the Fed rate hike mah.... New material info come out, adjust accordingly lor. I am not privy to insider info mah... Janet Yellen turned down my FB befriend request wor cry.gif cry.gif cry.gif

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 21 2015, 11:42 AM
xuzen
post Dec 21 2015, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(kimyee73 @ Dec 21 2015, 10:50 AM)
Top up Ponzi 1.0, 2.0, RHB small cap opportunity, RHB ATR & RHB EM Bond. Profit taking on KGF & KAF vision fund.
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KGF is not exactly large cap fund. Take a look at its stock holding and you will see what I mean.... In Lee Sook Yee wub.gif wub.gif wub.gif I trust.

Xuzen


xuzen
post Dec 21 2015, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 21 2015, 10:53 AM)
Wow, really listen to Crystal Balls™ and FSM, run from large Bolehcaps blink.gif
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Large Bolehcap™ no more Bolehness™ liao!

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 21 2015, 11:42 AM
xuzen
post Dec 23 2015, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Dec 23 2015, 02:07 PM)
Those Tits have been very Firm performers
but as the Fed has started to stimulate interest rates,
them Tits' performance may sag with heavier cost of interests brows.gif
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Oi old man... you nyanuk & confuse izzit?

Titties is a equity fund leh; not a bond fund. Equities usually "M0h-T1U" interest rate keh!

And even if it does, Fed only raise 0.25% nia!

Xuzen

p/s RM / MYR weakness..... I am gonna go short on RM / long USD. Hence will spend local; cuti-cuti local and watch Titties fund go up up up and away.... Infinity n beyond!

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 23 2015, 03:41 PM
xuzen
post Dec 23 2015, 03:40 PM

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QUOTE(Pewufod @ Dec 23 2015, 11:17 AM)
I just realised i have quite abit of funds from cimb
Titan.. Gg... Ponzi 2
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What is better than one awesome fund from CIMB?

How bout' two awesome funds? Titties + Ponzi 2.0 = awesomeness!

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 23 2015, 03:40 PM
xuzen
post Dec 23 2015, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 23 2015, 03:43 PM)
Beware overly inflated silicon titties laugh.gif
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This coming from someone who went long on Alladdin fund... wa ke ke thumbup.gif doh.gif
xuzen
post Dec 23 2015, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(lukenn @ Dec 22 2015, 11:00 PM)
Thanks. Just had a look at the pricing structure on FSM website.

So what you've described here, if I'm not mistaken

1. Buy equity funds => pay sales charge
2. Switch to fixed income => get  credit points
3. Sell fixed income funds

Assuming you've bought and sold at exactly the same price, you've technically converted sales charges to credit points. How much are the credit points worth that you would deem it as a profit?

Does making massive switches of entire positions out perform a stable portfolio, with only minimal switching to rebalance? It sounds like the switching cost would be a massive drag on performance.

My RM0.02  blink.gif
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Lai Lai kawan... let's go for some coffee and kuih-muih.

Use wrap account hor... no need to bother with all these credit point these and that wan... want to switch from KGF to Ponzi 1.0 then back to KGF, somemore go visit eastspring, then singah-singah kat RHB also no sales charge.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Dec 23 2015, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 23 2015, 03:49 PM)
dry.gif

The unbelievers shall be dikorbankan bruce.gif
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Merry X'mas, Seasons greetings and happy winter solstice to you too...

Old Unker WMK , Pengaja Van, j.pissing.by, and those FSM thread regulars (you know who you are) also too.

Xuzen

p/s Let's together-gether HU4T AR!

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 23 2015, 03:55 PM
xuzen
post Dec 23 2015, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Dec 23 2015, 03:56 PM)
Uncle - Tits / equities can be affected by higher interest rates leh
due to borrowings

and i did write Fed starting to raise rates ma - gawd knows how much / by when next few rounds
i no crystal balls like yours leh  laugh.gif
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Read today StarBiz...

Fed planned four raises in 2016, 25 basis pts each round to a ceiling of 1%.

There, that is certainty for you to calm your soul.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Dec 24 2015, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 24 2015, 09:54 AM)
US Market naik I'm happy tongue.gif & guys happy holiday. Merry Christmas too biggrin.gif
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Jingle bell; jingle bell; jingle all the way!

Xuzen
xuzen
post Dec 24 2015, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Dec 23 2015, 04:08 PM)
According to this articles, rate hike by Fed does have indirect effects on equities...
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/in...sp?header_alt=c
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/15/when-the-fe...at-happens.html

Since you love statistical analysis, you would be interested in this...
Rate hike definitely have effects on REITs, though I guess Tits are not heavy in this sector.

That said, strengthening USD may be able to offset the loss of momentum in US market.
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Excuse me while pasir sungai and I engage in some CFA-buddy tete-a-tete cool2.gif

All these are theories which you will learn in your CFA program. Good! However always take them with some perspective:

The expected return of say Titties fund is around 20%++. What is a little ant bite of 0.25% increase in risk free rate gonna do to it? Perhaps now its return becomes 19.75% ++? Will you be sad? Cannot eat; cannot sleep?

I reiterate: Equities fund are not bond funds... they are not so sensitive to interest rate change.

Xuzen

p/s My perspective: With interest rate increase, more cash will flow to the US and this makes USD more popular. In basic Economics 101 when supply increase, the supply gets more expensive. This means USD will become more expensive / go higher. The chances of USD gains against MYR is a bigger factor to consider than that 0.25% ant bite increase in risk free rate. And we all already know that historically Titties fund went up chiefly because of MYR weakness. This will continue with more future fed rate hike.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 24 2015, 10:40 AM
xuzen
post Dec 24 2015, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 24 2015, 10:32 AM)
Akauntan tanpa lesen disagrees...

Rate hike (and Fed already indicated that it is the beginning of a series of hikes) WILL:
- cause USD strengthening
- increase borrowing costs for corporations
- cap US consumers' appetite for spending
among others

And the implications?
- US-based corporations' exports will lose their pricing competitiveness vis-a-vis Europe
- when US-based corporations remit their earnings back, they will depreciate in value due to USD up, Europe and emerging currencies down
- savings rate up, Americans might be tempted to cash out from stocks and go back to savings

All these might harm earnings growth and/or rally in US stocks.
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What you say is probable and is something for an investor to consider if their local currency is not so volatile against USD. (SGD / BPS / Euro). Again you are stating theories without considering country specific circumstances.

But what I mention above is very localized and country specific to our Bolehland situation.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Dec 24 2015, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 24 2015, 10:40 AM)
Please read just-added last line of my previous post whistling.gif
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USD alone is just plain paper; it does not generate income.

Equities are real businesses and real human activities.

Xuzen



xuzen
post Dec 24 2015, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(lukenn @ Dec 24 2015, 10:46 AM)
CFA - CPA - CA -  CTA - CFP - CWA - CNN - LUCT - RMIT....

Isn't the idea behind UT is so that you don't have to worry about this ? You already pay 1.5%pa. management fees. Why second guess your managers choices?

eg : assuming fund X is a broad mandate fund which allows use of derivatives etc.

Seeing that high grade US fixed income securities will get crushed as interest rates rise, you your positions and move to money markets. The bond markets tank.

You saved yourself some massive pain. Brilliant.

You fund manager seeing the same situation, takes short positions instead, and makes a killing.

Just saying...
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Sorry ar kawan... boleh cakap dalam Bahasa Inggeris yang betul-betul (lay-man talk)? I no understand you what toking wor?

Xuzen
xuzen
post Dec 24 2015, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(lukenn @ Dec 24 2015, 11:00 AM)
lol sorry... I thought all the CFA here would understand. What I meant was...

we is oredi paying the fund manager many many money every year. Let the feller do his job lor. Nonit for we do the flers job for him/her mah, gaji already very tinggi.
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Friend, if like dis ar.... this FSM thread will never reach ver 12 lah!

Xuzen
xuzen
post Dec 24 2015, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(lukenn @ Dec 24 2015, 01:00 PM)
Slightly less effective, but still good.
High return, low vol.

[attachmentid=5609654]
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Mine consist of three equity fund (Titties + Ponzi 2.0 + Small-cap) + Money-Mkt
Mine is 12.5% rtn with vol of 4%. cool2.gif cool2.gif cool2.gif

Back testing: worse it ever went south was -3% (during the Q2-2015 China equity fiasco)

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 24 2015, 03:05 PM
xuzen
post Dec 24 2015, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(lukenn @ Dec 24 2015, 08:14 PM)
Sudah habis makan hari natal boleh berborak pelaburan lagi ...

Those are actually very good numbers. If you don't mind sharing, what is the underlying strategy?

P/s: in still waiting for you to belanja festive fruit cake.
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Underlying strategy = I have very good teachers / mentors.

They are Prof Eugene Fama, Prof Kenneth French and Prof Harry Markowitch. (Shameless names dropping)

By now you should be able to guess my underlying strategy liao....

Xuzen

Some key words: Efficient frontier & Minimal Variance Position

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 24 2015, 09:43 PM
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