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 Investors Club V9, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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river.sand
post Aug 18 2016, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 18 2016, 03:52 PM)
You do realize when it comes to numbers stuff, I don't simply say one.
Instead, of simply saying 'Don't think it is down to poor results', why didn't you take the effort to click around the internet and check if what I said was true?

I certainly don't want any innocent readers to take my words as gospel and trade on it but only to find out it's inaccurate !!!

user posted image

OR

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/5131141

earnings of 3.462 million vs 5.137 million.
That equals a DECLINE of how many percent?
*
Master boon, don't be so angry tongue.gif

I absolutely agree that the results were awful. The question is why there was no sell down a few months back? Why they wait until now?
The only reason I can think of is: the traders out there didn't see what your eyes of wisdom see biggrin.gif
Boon3
post Aug 18 2016, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Aug 18 2016, 04:17 PM)
Master boon, don't be so angry tongue.gif

I absolutely agree that the results were awful. The question is why there was no sell down a few months back? Why they wait until now?
The only reason I can think of is: the traders out there didn't see what your eyes of wisdom see biggrin.gif
*
I wrote...

QUOTE
SCGM was like SLP actually.

When SCGM reported its 4Q earnings on 23/6...
the Q earnings fell a drastic 33%...

the stock surprisingly did not crash.
perhaps the market was looking at the total dps of 12 sen for the calendar year.
the interesting issue yet again... eps vs dps.

you see, with the decline in the eps...
the stock was not a growth stock anymore (like SLP)...
and when you price in the FUTURE eps ...
this meant that one needs to factor in a NEW set of eps...
without growth... and perhaps with further decline in eps....

this made the stock suddenly extremely pricey.....


IMO (whatever I write is my opinion... you do not have to agree) ....

I suspected it was the issue of DPS vs EPS.

The EPS issue of course can be 'manipulated' to make it look nicely.
When SCGM reported its earnings, it was Q4.
and some quarters, decided to HIGHLIGHT that SCGM Q earnings for the year was UP some 30.65%.

But the actual fact Q4 earnings was down some 33%. (the industry practice is to compare current Q vs past year same Q - or 2014Q4 vs 2015Q4)

the industry prices the market based on future expected EPS.
that Q4 earnings dropped to just 2.62 sen.
the simplest way (not necessary correct) is to annualise it of 2.62 x 4 = 10.48

[/B]SCGM was trading at 3.60 before it fell.
With a projected/assumed eps of only 10.48 sen....

was SCGM extremely pricey then???

ok... that valuation method is subjected.

And remember I mentioned DPS.
the stock had a DPS of 12 sen for that fiscal year.
12 sen DPS.
at 3.60... the yield is how much?

isn't that why...
maybe...
the stock did not fall right away????





I could have mentioned the fact that one pension fund dumped a million shares 5 days after the Q report was announced. wink.gif

but shares fall for many reasons....

rights issue/placement issue ? err... sometimes yes.
I say sometimes cos in the financial market...
the bankers/backers of the share issue could be powderful at times.....
they can do magic....

but it's possible...
as you had mentioned it earlier...
perhaps the private placement could have been the trigger.....
cos when you consider the potential eps of only 10.48 sen, diluted by another 10%....
the shares would have been an extra 10% more pricey.....



Boon3
post Aug 18 2016, 04:53 PM

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ps

As I am a TRADER ...
my focus is mainly on why I should trade a stock.....

I try not to focus on why a stock should not fall the way it did....


Boon3
post Aug 18 2016, 05:05 PM

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cooldownguy86


QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 24 2016, 09:00 AM)
LOL!

I know your too many....

I remember.... tongue.gif (eh? cicak memory ke? )

you were watching...

user posted image

nicely consolidating....

user posted image

healthy pullback or game over? tongue.gif

and then.... and then...... and then...... got other stocks..... LOL
*
ahem....

in roughly about 2 months time.....

the healthy pullback DID not game over...
in fact....
has grown.....
grown very besar .... tongue.gif

user posted image

I definitely think lobster platter sudah ada few plates.... tongue.gif
cooldownguy86
post Aug 18 2016, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 18 2016, 05:05 PM)
cooldownguy86
ahem....

in roughly about 2 months time.....

the healthy pullback DID not game over...
in fact....
has grown.....
grown very besar .... tongue.gif

user posted image

I definitely think lobster platter sudah ada few plates.... tongue.gif
*
Haha prawn mee can lah. As usual I very gatal hehe tongue.gif I'm sure abg boon also huat smile.gif
Boon3
post Aug 18 2016, 08:18 PM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Aug 18 2016, 07:18 PM)
Haha prawn mee can lah.  As usual I very gatal hehe tongue.gif I'm sure abg boon also huat smile.gif
*
laugh.gif

You need to put on a poster.....
in your jamban....


I must not gatal....
I must not gatal....
I must not gatal....




tongue.gif


twhong_91
post Aug 18 2016, 11:05 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Aug 18 2016, 03:22 PM)
SCGM is having private placement, which would dilute the EPS by 10%. That could be the trigger.
Don't think it is down to poor results. Otherwise the sell down would have started immediately after the results were announced, or latest by the next trading day.

Not sure about ULICORP and SLP...
*
i see. thanks for the info cry.gif
zDarkForceSz
post Aug 19 2016, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Aug 18 2016, 02:30 PM)
So u prefer to be the crash boom bang rabbit not the steady turtle? tongue.gif
*
allianz brows.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Aug 19 2016, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(zDarkForceSz @ Aug 19 2016, 10:22 AM)
allianz  brows.gif
*
Itu saje? Look more closely... ph34r.gif
zDarkForceSz
post Aug 19 2016, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Aug 19 2016, 10:24 AM)
Itu saje? Look more closely... ph34r.gif
*
matrix lo~
SUSPink Spider
post Aug 19 2016, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(zDarkForceSz @ Aug 19 2016, 10:32 AM)
matrix lo~
*
MOAR~ devil.gif
zDarkForceSz
post Aug 19 2016, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Aug 19 2016, 10:33 AM)
MOAR~ devil.gif
*
no idea. haha long time no follow. bangwall.gif

HLIND today huat wor
SUSPink Spider
post Aug 19 2016, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(zDarkForceSz @ Aug 19 2016, 10:49 AM)
no idea. haha long time no follow.  bangwall.gif

HLIND today huat wor
*
It's associate company Yamaha Vietnam manyak kuat ma~

Even it's consumer products segment i.e. Guocera tiles division doing well thumbup.gif
Boon3
post Aug 19 2016, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ Aug 18 2016, 11:05 PM)
i see. thanks for the info  cry.gif
*
If you take the time, several high growth stocks have fallen a fair bit.
Stocks like Sam, PIE etc etc....
You would also note that they had a huge drop in quarterly earnings...


SUSlowya
post Aug 19 2016, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ Aug 18 2016, 01:07 PM)
Bursa issued UMA to Ulicorp
*
big hands are clearing 4.0, should be last batch already.

scare2 all the weak holders to clear all to them huh..

target >6
Boon3
post Aug 20 2016, 12:00 PM

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Poor Q results and stock movement....

PIE

27/5 PIE reported Q earnings down 79% when compared to previous year same quarter earnings.

Many do know that PIE is one of the stocks that iCapital is holding.
Making lots of money for iCapital.

So obviously ....
ahem ....
there are 'investors' who just love to play the follow their hero game.
their hero buy the stock... die die they must also buy.

and it pays good dividend too. (lazy to check the yield bo... )

so here lies the question...
stock pays good dividend wo...
hero hold the stock wo....
eps die one quarter only wo....
should be ok kua cos maybe next quarter earnings will rebound.....

right?
acceptable?

see what happen...
now we can curi and look back on hindsight...
sure I damn pandai.... tongue.gif

user posted image

27/5 PIE closed at 13.10 (or 2.55 adjusted to account for their share split exercise)
28/5 PIE closed down at 12.00 (or 2.33 adjusted to account for their share split exercise )

a few days later on 6/6 PIE closed at 13.4 or 2.68 adjusted.

huh.

Earnings fall 79%.
Stock also no fall what...

so are we saying poor earnings no impact on stock price?
(aha... a little same with SCGM ya?)

.... the stock PIE no listen to advice.... tongue.gif

on 8/8.... stock no scare die....
rolleyes.gif
it announced another set of shiitie results...

user posted image

how did the market take the results?

will it take the powderful hero Tan Teng Boo into considderation (give face yo!)

user posted image

PIE tutup kedai yesterday at 1.85

(do compare ya... 2.33 and 1.85)
(do do some forward PE estimates)
(and ya.... PIE was considered as a high growth stock)



Boon3
post Aug 20 2016, 12:00 PM

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some people buy stock cos they think the stock will earn more and more money.
good reason?

now if the stock is going to earn less and less money....
what will one do?


SAM (one of the many falling stocks )


user posted image

announced earnngs die on 17/8
next day...

stock straight die lembu.....

user posted image




This post has been edited by Boon3: Aug 20 2016, 12:11 PM
Boon3
post Aug 20 2016, 12:21 PM

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and then how about OFI...

user posted image

this one interesting .... tongue.gif

it reported bad earnings on Feb...
stock die...
it reported bad earnings on May...
no need say stock also die...
but... May price higher than Feb price... laugh.gif rolleyes.gif

better still ...
next earnings is due this month... tongue.gif
stock belum report earnings.....
stock ownself die lembu lembu first....

user posted image



see told you stock market is sibeh fun.



ps: run thru other big falling stocks...
and compare to these few....
you see what?


twhong_91
post Aug 20 2016, 10:09 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 19 2016, 01:56 PM)
If you take the time, several high growth stocks have fallen a fair bit.
Stocks like Sam, PIE etc etc....
You would also note that they had a huge drop in quarterly earnings...
*
Based on what you posted boon, am i expecting ulicorp to have a bad coming quarter this mont? sweat.gif
Boon3
post Aug 21 2016, 07:50 AM

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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ Aug 20 2016, 10:09 PM)
Based on what you posted boon, am i expecting ulicorp to have a bad coming quarter this mont?  sweat.gif
*
I wouldn't know for sure. wink.gif

All I know was that if It was me, I would never had gotten into the stock in the first place.
There was no justification to trade the stock.

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