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 SGX Counters, Discussion on Counters in the SGX

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TSHansel
post Sep 29 2015, 04:28 PM, updated 2w ago

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Let's talk about counters in the SGX - penny counters, big mkt-cap counters, counters that have vanished, etc,..

Looking at things in another way - yield-counters or not : penny-sized yield-counters, blue-chip yield counters, betting counters, etc,..

I'll start with Keppel Corporation. I love Keppel Corporation for its big market-capitalization, having been around for a long time, consistent and twice-a-year dividend payout and very recently, a yield of 7.23% as of today.

Any other SGX counters that specially appealed to the forummers here ?

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 29 2015, 04:29 PM
Bonescythe
post Sep 29 2015, 04:32 PM

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Olam ok ah?
TSHansel
post Sep 29 2015, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Sep 29 2015, 04:32 PM)
Olam ok ah?
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Hi Bone - FKLI King,... Olam,.. commodities counter. Commodities rout now,... not a good time to enter yet because still unsure how long will this rout run... Same with Noble, Noble is worse,... a body called Muddy Waters keeps poking at her accounting reports.
djhenry91
post Sep 29 2015, 04:45 PM

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lol...bone gor become FKLI king..
status sudah upgraded
nexona88
post Sep 29 2015, 04:53 PM

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I think Olam are on M&A spree. also read today newspaper they're expanding their coffee plantation in Africa.

also Mitsubishi Corporation Acquires some Stake in Olam International

don't forget Singapore Gomen got share in the company tongue.gif

This post has been edited by nexona88: Sep 29 2015, 04:54 PM
wjchay
post Sep 29 2015, 04:54 PM

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Hi guys, noob here.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HPHT:SP

Why is there no P/E ratio for this?

Thanks.
wjchay
post Sep 29 2015, 04:59 PM

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Is it due to EPS negative?
Bonescythe
post Sep 29 2015, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 29 2015, 04:44 PM)
Hi Bone - FKLI King,... Olam,.. commodities counter. Commodities rout now,... not a good time to enter yet because still unsure how long will this rout run... Same with Noble, Noble is worse,... a body called Muddy Waters keeps poking at her accounting reports.
*
i think Olam got some barang la..

looking at 2.20 to 2.40
Bonescythe
post Sep 29 2015, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Sep 29 2015, 04:45 PM)
lol...bone gor become FKLI holland king..
status sudah upgraded
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edited
djhenry91
post Sep 29 2015, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Sep 29 2015, 05:04 PM)
edited
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lol

too bad some client only trade HK share nia
TSHansel
post Sep 29 2015, 05:17 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 29 2015, 04:53 PM)
I think Olam are on M&A spree. also read today newspaper they're expanding their coffee plantation in Africa.

also Mitsubishi Corporation Acquires some Stake in Olam International

don't forget Singapore Gomen got share in the company  tongue.gif
*
Right,... I'll quote a personal experience here. I used to hold a business trust called Cityspring. It IPO'ed with a large percentage held by the investment arm of the Sgp Govern't called Temasek.

Bought a few assets, and the last one it bought was an undersea cable facility linking the south of Vicyoria with Tasmania. After that acquisition, everything went downhill.

They held seminars, saying repeatedly to publications that Temasek held substantial stakes in the trust, blah, bah, blah,.. but thing did not work out and the prices dipped all the way down (after I divested). I certainly did not buy the CFO's story (his name was Tong,... something) after I saw him talking to investors in one of the seminars.

People were still holding,... based on the fact that Temasek was the majority shareholder. But still : things did not work out.

Another eg I could quote is Global Investments. Temasek bought a stake in it after Babcock and Brown did not manage to make this work. But how is the counter today ?? Not that good too.
TSHansel
post Sep 29 2015, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(wjchay @ Sep 29 2015, 04:54 PM)
Hi guys, noob here.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HPHT:SP

Why is there no P/E ratio for this?

Thanks.
*
Price-to-Earnings(PER) currently is 3.11.

http://www.dividends.sg/dividend/summary?ticker=NS8U

The negative EPS is a bit of a discouragement to investors, myself included. OF course, for a REIT and a trust, the free cashflow is more important. But if a REIT/trust keeps losing money per unit on a net basis, then the only way it can continue to pay out dividends is through debt. We all know what this means.

When I was invested in Cityspring a few years ago, I remembered the CFO kept telling the world that it is okay to have low earnings, 'provided' the free cashflow is there to keep-up the dividend payout for the unitholders. It did not last, Cityspring was not able to stand as an entity on its own. The maths just don't work.
TSHansel
post Sep 29 2015, 05:55 PM

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Out of the three major banks incorporated in Singapore, of which al three of them are in the list of the safest banks in the world, the one which stands out to me is : OCBC.

Main reason is because of its dividend potential, and growth potential.

What do you guys think ?

It is never wrong to put some money into a Singapore bank, for diversification purpose and for security of our funds.
nexona88
post Sep 29 2015, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 29 2015, 05:17 PM)
Right,... I'll quote a personal experience here. I used to hold a business trust called Cityspring. It IPO'ed with a large percentage held by the investment arm of the Sgp Govern't called Temasek.

Bought a few assets, and the last one it bought was an undersea cable facility linking the south of Vicyoria with Tasmania. After that acquisition, everything went downhill.

They held seminars, saying repeatedly to publications that Temasek held substantial stakes in the trust, blah, bah, blah,.. but thing did not work out and the prices dipped all the way down (after I divested). I certainly did not buy the CFO's story (his name was Tong,... something) after I saw him talking to investors in one of the seminars.

People were still holding,... based on the fact that Temasek was the majority shareholder. But still : things did not work out.

Another eg I could quote is Global Investments. Temasek bought a stake in it after Babcock and Brown did not manage to make this work. But how is the counter today ?? Not that good too.
*
oh I didn't know blush.gif

well now I know there's no guarantee the company will success with Temasek or GIC as major shareholders / BOD sad.gif

that's biggest mistake nod.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 29 2015, 06:40 PM

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there is a predecessor thread, but not very active, i remember.

just for the record and reference:

Singapore Stocks
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1186899/+1700
TSHansel
post Sep 29 2015, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 29 2015, 06:00 PM)
oh I didn't know  blush.gif

well now I know there's no guarantee the company will success with Temasek or GIC as major shareholders / BOD sad.gif

that's biggest mistake  nod.gif
*
Hi,... I guessed I learnt the hard way, it's good to inform here. smile.gif

The SG gomen has two investment arms - Temasek and the GIC (Government Investment Co).
TSHansel
post Sep 29 2015, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 29 2015, 06:40 PM)
there is a predecessor thread, but not very active, i remember.

just for the record and reference:

Singapore Stocks
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1186899/+1700
*
I wouldn't be surprised. After all, SG stocks were not made known yesterday. I'll contribute whatever I can from personal knowledge and experience here. I'll put up thoughts and opinions from 'other than the general' sources here too.

Please give your inputs too, bro,... rclxms.gif
TSHansel
post Sep 29 2015, 07:15 PM

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To start off,... most beginners would like to know the following. Veterans would sharpen their knowledge too if they come across information related to the following.

How to open a brokerage a/c.
Which one should I use.
Which company has div.
How much do I need.
How much can I make.
Is it a good time to invest.
Is a Reit better than a stock ?
TSHansel
post Sep 30 2015, 01:35 PM

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A very useful extract from an interview with an analyst across the causeway on how to identify Durable Companies that can face economic down-cycles, and the tactic of buying funds made up of such companies.

The way to identify Durable Companies should be very useful in these economic times :-

What are durable companies and how does a strategy investing in these companies benefit investors?

The Durable Companies approach is bottom up and its positioning is a result of company-level opportunities. Durable Companies as businesses that are more stable than the market perceives. We have two definitions for stability. The first is if the profits or cash flows of a company do not decline by more than 15% in virtually any scenario. The second is that the primary driver of future value creation for these companies is the management team spending free cash flow wisely. By buying these stable businesses at attractive valuations, we believe the portfolio can generate attractive returns in both up and down markets.

How is the durable companies strategy positioned?

We believe that by looking for stable companies in unexpected market segments such as smaller companies or out-of-favour regions or sectors, we can find stability at more attractive valuations. One example is small and mid caps. There’s a company that runs ferries between England and Ireland. The CEO owns a large portion of the company and the business is competitively positioned. The profit stream is stable, but it’s a small cap company in Ireland. Similarly, the materials sector usually mean metals and mining, and highly cyclical. But there are companies with highly stable businesses that are independent of the economic cycle. They can generate attractive long-term returns if managed well but tend to be overlooked. We manage the portfolio with a total return mindset, and are not beholden to the structure of the index in any way. Thus, the portfolio looks very different from the index with a very high active share of 99%.

What are the main challenges in managing the durable companies strategy?

The only challenge is finding very stable businesses at attractive valuations. It’s why the portfolio is concentrated and unconstrained. The fund typically holds 25-50 securities, and at present we hold 39. This scarcity is why running this portfolio is such a great competitive advantage, because we have a very broad investment opportunity set to choose from, and many great investors to seek input from. This is a valuable resource in managing a portfolio whose success rests on the quality of our company research.

AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 29 2015, 06:58 PM)
Please give your inputs too, bro,...  rclxms.gif
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i am more into sg reits.

i have only singtel as a regular/div stock.

have not done much work on regular equities, so i stay away mostly...
TSHansel
post Sep 30 2015, 02:12 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 01:52 PM)
i am more into sg reits.

i have only singtel as a regular/div stock.

have not done much work on regular equities, so i stay away mostly...
*
Wouldn't you want to diversify into some SG dividend stocks too ? There is a small risk, though not a big issue with SG REITs = the gearing. When interest rate rises, there will be some impacts, no matter how low the gearing of the REIT is.

The SG SOR (Swap Offer Rate) has been rising,... the rate of rise will pick up when the Feds increases interest rate. The mortgage-holders in Sg are now slowly feeling the pinch. Many loan packages in SG are tied to the SOR, and to the SIBOR too. Just like our BLR.
AVFAN
post Sep 30 2015, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 30 2015, 02:12 PM)
Wouldn't you want to diversify into some SG dividend stocks too ?
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no.

i have too much to read and monitor just for sgreits, us equities and crude.

can't deal with more, not even bursa stuff! laugh.gif
TSHansel
post Sep 30 2015, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 30 2015, 02:17 PM)
no.

i have too much to read and monitor just for sgreits, us equities and crude.

can't deal with more, not even bursa stuff! laugh.gif
*
Yeah,... I can see that you are quite successful in the UWTI and DWTI games. rclxms.gif I too follow the US Equities, as for Crude, I just read the everyday news that I come across. As you bump into news about SG REITs, you will come across the SG dividend stocks too. Same principles in analysing with one major difference - SG dividend stocks do not have to give out a minimum of 90% of their net profit in the form of net property income in order to have maximum tax advantage.

For the SG dividend stocks, we look into their Dividend Policy and their record of dividend payout over the years.
Ramjade
post Sep 30 2015, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 29 2015, 07:15 PM)
To start off,... most beginners would like to know the following. Veterans would sharpen their knowledge too if they come across information related to the following.

How to open a brokerage a/c.
Which one should I use.
Which company has div.
How much do I need.
How much can I make.
Is it a good time to invest.
Is a Reit better than a stock ?
*
Hi,

Sorry for disturbing. You told me to check this thread. However, I have read finish. Nothing on which broker are you using and which bank you are using. Whether can do online or one need to manullay call SG. Please share.
TSHansel
post Oct 1 2015, 10:55 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 30 2015, 07:29 PM)
Hi,

Sorry for disturbing. You told me to check this thread. However, I have read finish. Nothing on which broker are you using and which bank you are using. Whether can do online or one need to manullay call SG. Please share.
*
Hi Bro,... I use DBS Bank, and I use DBS-Vickers as my Singapore brokerage. ALL transactions in DBS Bank and in DBS-Vickers (DBSV) can be performed online, UNLESS if you are attending to a Rights Issue exercise, then you may need to go down to Sgp to do some small activities.

But, let's leave out this thing called a Rights Issue at the moment.

The first time when you need to set-up the account, you need to go down to Singapore and meet-up with the DBS branch from where you would like your account to be set-up. After your account is setup, you will be given an id, a password and a security token, with which you can use to log-on to your account from Malaysia, and from anywhere in the world.

When you open your DBS Account, open a normal Savings Account and a Multi-Currency Account (MCA) at the same time. With the MCA, you can deposit funds of different currencies into that account into different pockets inside that account.

I'll stop here, bro,... think about this, and ask me any questions you would like to.
Ramjade
post Oct 1 2015, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 1 2015, 10:55 PM)
Hi Bro,... I use DBS Bank, and I use DBS-Vickers as my Singapore brokerage. ALL transactions in DBS Bank and in DBS-Vickers (DBSV) can be performed online, UNLESS if you are attending to a Rights Issue exercise, then you may need to go down to Sgp to do some small activities.

But, let's leave out this thing called a Rights Issue at the moment.

The first time when you need to set-up the account, you need to go down to Singapore and meet-up with the DBS branch from where you would like your account to be set-up. After your account is setup, you will be given an id, a password and a security token, with which you can use to log-on to your account from Malaysia, and from anywhere in the world.

When you open your DBS Account, open a normal Savings Account and a Multi-Currency Account (MCA) at the same time. With the MCA, you can deposit funds of different currencies into that account into different pockets inside that account.

I'll stop here, bro,... think about this, and ask me any questions you would like to.
*
Ok. Thanks. I will save it up and update you in December. Hopefully I can go to Singapore in December. notworthy.gif

From what I have been reading, SG bank charges if you fall below certain limit. What's the minimum limit for DBS to prevent it from being charged? What's the minimum to open the above account for normal savings and MCA?
TSHansel
post Oct 2 2015, 12:14 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 1 2015, 11:07 PM)
Ok. Thanks. I will save it up and update you in December. Hopefully I can go to Singapore in December.  notworthy.gif

From what I have been reading, SG bank charges if you fall below certain limit. What's the minimum limit for DBS to prevent it from being charged? What's the minimum to open the above account for normal savings and MCA?
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For the DBS Savings Acct, prepare SGD1000 to open the account. If the daily amount falls below SGD1000, there will be a service fee of SGD2.00 charged at the end of the month.

As for the MCA, it's a bit dear,... SGD3000 to open and a minimum amount of SGD 3000 must be maintained. Otherwise, a service fee of SGD7.50 will be charged at the end of the month.

Perhaps don't need to open the MCA first. Just open the DBS Savings Account.
Ramjade
post Oct 2 2015, 12:26 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 2 2015, 12:14 AM)
For the DBS Savings Acct, prepare SGD1000 to open the account. If the daily amount falls below SGD1000, there will be a service fee of SGD2.00 charged at the end of the month.

As for the MCA, it's a bit dear,... SGD3000 to open and a minimum amount of SGD 3000 must be maintained. Otherwise, a service fee of SGD7.50 will be charged at the end of the month.

Perhaps don't need to open the MCA first. Just open the DBS Savings Account.
*
What is the duration for an inactive account? In Malaysia if there are no transaction in 7 years, the account is close and money will be moved to unclaim monies.

Also, how can you carry SGD4000 cash pass Malaysian & SG customs? As far as I know Malaysian law state that one cannot carry >RM10k cash out of the country.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 2 2015, 12:28 AM
elea88
post Oct 2 2015, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 2 2015, 12:26 AM)
What is the duration for an inactive account? In Malaysia if there are no transaction in 7 years, the account is close and money will be moved to unclaim monies.

Also, how can you carry SGD4000 cash pass Malaysian & SG customs? As far as I know Malaysian law state that one cannot carry >RM10k cash out of the country.
*
its USD 10K not RM10K.....

Opening Ac in Sg is easy.. the difficult part is transfering or putting money into SG if u are from Msia..
TSHansel
post Oct 2 2015, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 2 2015, 12:26 AM)
What is the duration for an inactive account? In Malaysia if there are no transaction in 7 years, the account is close and money will be moved to unclaim monies.

Also, how can you carry SGD4000 cash pass Malaysian & SG customs? As far as I know Malaysian law state that one cannot carry >RM10k cash out of the country.
*
There is no duration for inactivity. The account will remain as it is.

For Internet Banking, if you do not log-in after 1 year, the id and password need to be reset again.

For more information, you can call DBS directly at this number : 65 6327 2265
pundekman
post Oct 2 2015, 04:16 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 29 2015, 05:17 PM)
Right,... I'll quote a personal experience here. I used to hold a business trust called Cityspring. It IPO'ed with a large percentage held by the investment arm of the Sgp Govern't called Temasek.

Bought a few assets, and the last one it bought was an undersea cable facility linking the south of Vicyoria with Tasmania. After that acquisition, everything went downhill.

They held seminars, saying repeatedly to publications that Temasek held substantial stakes in the trust, blah, bah, blah,.. but thing did not work out and the prices dipped all the way down (after I divested). I certainly did not buy the CFO's story (his name was Tong,... something) after I saw him talking to investors in one of the seminars.

People were still holding,... based on the fact that Temasek was the majority shareholder. But still : things did not work out.

Another eg I could quote is Global Investments. Temasek bought a stake in it after Babcock and Brown did not manage to make this work. But how is the counter today ?? Not that good too.
*
i got hup soon global. also whell connected with govt. Temasek has shares. dunno what happened to company now...
pundekman
post Oct 2 2015, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 2 2015, 12:26 AM)
What is the duration for an inactive account? In Malaysia if there are no transaction in 7 years, the account is close and money will be moved to unclaim monies.

Also, how can you carry SGD4000 cash pass Malaysian & SG customs? As far as I know Malaysian law state that one cannot carry >RM10k cash out of the country.
*
not more that equivalent USD10k. for RM denomination is 1k
TSHansel
post Oct 2 2015, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(pundekman @ Oct 2 2015, 04:16 PM)
i got hup soon global. also whell connected with govt. Temasek has shares. dunno what happened to company now...
*
Company was delisted.

Accordingly, the Shares will be delisted from the Catalist of the SGX-ST with effect from 9.00 a.m. on 8 April 2013.

By Order of the Board
Sophia Lim
Company Secretary
4 April 2013

Ann't as in attachment below :-

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Annt_Date_...nt&FileID=12014

Sorry ! sad.gif
TSHansel
post Oct 14 2015, 10:39 AM

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I was waiting to go into more SGX dividend counters and selected REITs today, thinking that the mkt will fall after the ann't of a technical recession by the Monetary Authority of Sgp (MAS).

The STI performed the contrary by rising instead of falling just like the other bourses around region.

Let's see what happens later on,.... Market is unpredictable.
AVFAN
post Oct 14 2015, 10:55 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 14 2015, 10:39 AM)
I was waiting to go into more SGX dividend counters and selected REITs today, thinking that the mkt will fall after the ann't of a technical recession by the Monetary Authority of Sgp (MAS).

The STI performed the contrary by rising instead of falling just like the other bourses around region.

Let's see what happens later on,.... Market is unpredictable.
*
i remember a few months ago, the expectation was weakness and looming recession with several reports were pointing to mas targeting usd/sgd 1.40.

it went to 1.43 at one stage where i last bought some sgreits.

now, avoiding a technical recession, chances are 1.40 will be about right.

sgd/rm now 3.025.



what dividend stocks are u looking at now?
TSHansel
post Oct 14 2015, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 14 2015, 10:55 AM)
i remember a few months ago, the expectation was weakness and looming recession with several reports were pointing to mas targeting usd/sgd 1.40.

it went to 1.43 at one stage where i last bought some sgreits.

now, avoiding a technical recession, chances are 1.40 will be about right.

sgd/rm now 3.025.
what dividend stocks are u looking at now?
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Tq for your reply, bro,...

A bit of wrong timing at my side - I really needed USDSGD to touch 1.44. So,... I'm a loser, at least in the short term. My USD just sitting there waiting to be converted into the SGD, not earning interest or coupons or dividend. sad.gif

Happy for you that you bought some SGREITs earlier, and to remember that you hold First REIT too. I have some good news for you about First REIT,... just released :-

SINGAPORE – 13 October 2015 – Bowsprit Capital Corporation Limited (“Bowsprit”), the Manager of First Real Estate Investment Trust (“First REIT” or the “Trust”), Singapore’s first healthcare real estate investment trust with properties in Indonesia, Singapore and South Korea, today announced a 3.0% year-on-year (“y-o-y”) rise in distribution per unit (“DPU”) to 2.08 Singapore cents for the third quarter ended 30 September 2015 (“3Q 2015”), compared to 2.02 Singapore cents of the preceding year (“3Q 2014”).

...so,.. prepare for money dropping in soon.

Dividend stocks,.. still observing,... and some selected REITs too.
elea88
post Oct 14 2015, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 14 2015, 10:39 AM)
I was waiting to go into more SGX dividend counters and selected REITs today, thinking that the mkt will fall after the ann't of a technical recession by the Monetary Authority of Sgp (MAS).

The STI performed the contrary by rising instead of falling just like the other bourses around region.

Let's see what happens later on,.... Market is unpredictable.
*
what SGX div counters u shortlisted? dun mind sharing?
I hv some not utilized SGD sitting in DBS. dunno what to buy.....

Since today free.. looking around....




TSHansel
post Oct 14 2015, 12:26 PM

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Okay,......

I have been watching KEPPEL CORP closely for the following reasons :-

1) big cap stock.
2) good time to enter now because of oil price weakness.
3) quite sustainable and consistent dividend payout.
4) yield is around 6.55% at current price today.
5) company is heavily diversified in terms of business lines and in terms of geography.

Negative qualities for me :-

1) giving-out dividend only twice per year, not the usual 4 times per year that we are used to enjoying.
2) must watch closely in order to buy because it 'jumps back up' very fast.
3) institutions are always watching this counter.
4) though the DPU is QUITE consistent, but still it is not as consistent as the REITs in my portfolio.

can't think of any other reasons,.... Good luck, Elea,...

The price yesterday dipped to 7.19, but I was hesitant to enter,....thinking that the whole SGX will dip today and drop all boats,... but, well, I was wrong.

Wait a little bit more,.. since oil price is still dropping. When the euphoria of the MAS announcement has died down, then oil price will again re-couple itself to the price of Keppel REIT.

Really frustrating, this SGD and Sgp,... MAS says easing, the immediate reaction is the SGD rises,... the STI rises and everything abt Sgp rises,...
elea88
post Oct 14 2015, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 14 2015, 12:26 PM)
Okay,......

I have been watching KEPPEL CORP closely for the following reasons :-

1) big cap stock.
2) good time to enter now because of oil price weakness.
3) quite sustainable and consistent dividend payout.
4) yield is around 6.55% at current price today.
5) company is heavily diversified in terms of business lines and in terms of geography.

Negative qualities for me :-

1) giving-out dividend only twice per year, not the usual 4 times per year that we are used to enjoying.
2) must watch closely in order to buy because it 'jumps back up' very fast.
3) institutions are always watching this counter.
4) though the DPU is QUITE consistent, but still it is not as consistent as the REITs in my portfolio.

can't think of any other reasons,.... Good luck, Elea,...

The price yesterday dipped to 7.19, but I was hesitant to enter,....thinking that the whole SGX will dip today and drop all boats,... but, well, I was wrong.

Wait a little bit more,.. since oil price is still dropping. When the euphoria of the MAS announcement has died down, then oil price will again re-couple itself to the price of Keppel REIT.

Really frustrating, this SGD and Sgp,... MAS says easing, the immediate reaction is the SGD rises,... the STI rises and everything abt Sgp rises,...
*
thank you.



Non reits that I hv collected so far is
telco co , UMS, Lee metal, Sheng Siong, Neraltel, silverlake.
Now thinking of disposing Silverlake since got CAP appreciation as the price also YOYO very fast.




TSHansel
post Oct 14 2015, 10:05 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Oct 14 2015, 01:59 PM)
thank you.
Non reits that I hv collected so far is
telco co , UMS, Lee metal, Sheng Siong, Neraltel, silverlake.
Now thinking of disposing Silverlake since got CAP appreciation  as the price also YOYO very fast.
*
You are welcome.

Silverlake - how long have you held on to this counter ? What are your opinions of this counter ?
elea88
post Oct 15 2015, 08:03 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 14 2015, 10:05 PM)
You are welcome.

Silverlake - how long have you held on to this counter ? What are your opinions of this counter ?
*
I wanted to invest much earlier however price did not match.
just as well, coz the price came tumbling down.
then i just bought some at .52 on 16 sept . So now thinking dispose.
As there is cap appreciation and they they not settled the accounting issues yet.


TSHansel
post Oct 16 2015, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Oct 15 2015, 08:03 AM)
I wanted to invest much earlier however price did not match.
just as well, coz the price came tumbling down.
then i just bought some at .52 on 16 sept . So now thinking dispose.
As there is cap appreciation and they they not settled the accounting issues yet.
*
Hi,...if Silverlake has not settled the accounting issues yet, then it is a good time to do some trading now and take some profits while awaiting further. However, if the acct'g issues are settled via a report from the independent auditors appointed by Silverlake, then I believed the price of this counter would go up nearer to 90 cents. I have not followed this counter very much,... when is the independent auditor due to release the report of its findings ?

The thing that caught my eye about Silverlake was its recurring income stream after a software package has been sold, or an upgrade has been completed for a banking customer. Many large financial organizations in South East Asia use their software solutions.

I have started to buy-in into Keppel Corp today. Gotten-in at 7.28.... Couldn't resist it anymore.... At 7.28, the dividend yield is at 6.60% annually, paid twice a year. I will be receiving the first dividend payment round about the first week of May next year.

I am estimating even if the orders and the rig production processes run into problems, the dividend yield will drop to 6.00% at my Buy price. If Keppel should go down further, I will be able to average down.
elea88
post Oct 19 2015, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 16 2015, 04:52 PM)
Hi,...if Silverlake has not settled the accounting issues yet, then it is a good time to do some trading now and take some profits while awaiting further. However, if the acct'g issues are settled via a report from the independent auditors appointed by Silverlake, then I believed the price of this counter would go up nearer to 90 cents. I have not followed this counter very much,... when is the independent auditor due to release the report of its findings ?

The thing that caught my eye about Silverlake was its recurring income stream after a software package has been sold, or an upgrade has been completed for a banking customer. Many large financial organizations in South East Asia use their software solutions.

I have started to buy-in into Keppel Corp today. Gotten-in at 7.28.... Couldn't resist it anymore.... At 7.28, the dividend yield is at 6.60% annually, paid twice a year. I will be receiving the first dividend payment round about the first week of May next year.

I am estimating even if the orders and the rig production processes run into problems, the dividend yield will drop to 6.00% at my Buy price. If Keppel should go down further, I will be able to average down.
*
Hansel, take a look at : Keppel Infrastructure Trust (A7RU)

100% owned by KEPPEL CORP.

What u think?
TSHansel
post Oct 19 2015, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Oct 19 2015, 02:06 PM)
Hansel, take a look at : Keppel Infrastructure Trust (A7RU)

100% owned by KEPPEL CORP.

What u think?
*
Keppel Infra Trust was formerly known as CitySpring Infrastructure Trust. This was the first trust that I invested in when I first started in the Singapore REITs sector many years ago. I invested into KIT (or CIT) when CIT first IPO'ed.

There were many problems. The unit price dropped, when I attended the AGM and asked questions, the CFO acted more like a lawyer than the board of directors explaining thing to the shareholders, etc,...

The unit price dropped badly, and the DPU was also reduced. I thought the trust was delisted till I heard recently that the Keppel Group bought it over.

Out of personal experience, I think I'll stay away from KIT (or CIT) for the time being, until I see clearer pictures ahead.

Lol,... I still remembered,... back then, we were always debating whether a REIT having zero or negative earnings per unit was able to give out dividends in a safe and consistent manner. CIT management was ALWAYS ADVOCATING that for a trust, the most important thing was cashflow, AND NOT earnings. Hence, having zero earnings was FINE for a REIT,.... biggrin.gif The management was always saying it's all in the accounting treatment.

The unit price never appreciated and dropped all the way. I'm surprised that the Keppel group finally absorbed this trust into its family.

Managed to secure quite some lots of Keppel Corp today. Caught the lots at 7.24, the lowest price for today.

Edited by adding : I wouldn't be surprised if the earnings per unit today is near to zero or in the negative region. The rentals they collected could never yield net property income, I really haven't really studied why,.. but I think it's because of the characteristics of the assets that they hold.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 19 2015, 07:17 PM
TSHansel
post Oct 23 2015, 07:37 PM

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Frasers Centrepoint Trust :-

Quarterly report was released yesterday morning. In short, all metric were up, the DPU was higher compared to the same period last year and the suburban malls are looking good. Yield at current price = 7.18%.

Keppel Corp :-

Quarterly report was also released yesterday. All metrics were down, collection problem from a client in Brazil but still highly motivated. The price opened at 7.40 today, surprisingly, then dropped back to the lowest of 7.19. Couldn't catch any at 7.19 though, so bought at 7.25. Yield at current price = 6.62%. Still believed Keppel will come back.
Vector88
post Oct 24 2015, 03:35 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 23 2015, 07:37 PM)
Frasers Centrepoint Trust :-

Quarterly report was released yesterday morning. In short, all metric were up, the DPU was higher compared to the same period last year and the suburban malls are looking good. Yield at current price = 7.18%.

Keppel Corp :-

Quarterly report was also released yesterday. All metrics were down, collection problem from a client in Brazil but still highly motivated. The price opened at 7.40 today, surprisingly, then dropped back to the lowest of 7.19. Couldn't catch any at 7.19 though, so bought at 7.25. Yield at current price = 6.62%. Still believed Keppel will come back.
*
I like Frasers Centrepoint Trust, own mostly suburban malls, should be more resilient in challenging times ...

TSHansel
post Oct 25 2015, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Oct 24 2015, 03:35 PM)
I like Frasers Centrepoint Trust, own mostly suburban malls, should be more resilient in challenging times ...
*
Same here,...however drilling deeper down into the data, the only slight worrying matter pertaining to this trust is that Bedok Point may not perform, as seen from the data tables. The Occupancy Rate seems to be trending down in the three previous quarters, and rental revesion percentage is negative, which means the average rental collected has dropped compared to the figure from the leases signed three years ago. All the other five malls have postiverental reversions. Bedok Point seems to be dragging down the average figure...

Edited by adding : yeah,... forgot to add, Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) also owns Hektar REIT of Msia. majority shareholder position, I think,... saw the holding position at Hektar REIT of 44%, opened to correction,... smile.gif

If anything happens to Hektar REIT, it may drag FCT down with it,...

Are you keen on a good big-cap counter which has a good yiled at present ?

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 25 2015, 03:39 PM
Vector88
post Oct 25 2015, 05:52 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 25 2015, 03:29 PM)

Are you keen on a good big-cap counter which has a good yiled at present ?
*
Ya, any recommendations?
TSHansel
post Oct 25 2015, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Oct 25 2015, 05:52 PM)
Ya, any recommendations?
*
At this point in time, I spotted Keppel Corporation, BN4. Share price has been depressed because of oil price problems affecting their Offshore & Marine business segment. The management has taken this opportunity to right-size, and to streamline their operations.

What I like about their web presentation is when they said this : Throughout history, Keppel Corp has always survived through all economic cycles, and have always come out to be in better shape after the cycle has ended.

I love the way they do their reporting, via webcasts. What are your opinions ?
Vector88
post Oct 25 2015, 08:10 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 25 2015, 06:49 PM)
At this point in time, I spotted Keppel Corporation, BN4. Share price has been depressed because of oil price problems affecting their Offshore & Marine business segment. The management has taken this opportunity to right-size, and to streamline their operations.

What I like about their web presentation is when they said this : Throughout history, Keppel Corp has always survived through all economic cycles, and have always come out to be in better shape after the cycle has ended.

I love the way they do their reporting, via webcasts. What are your opinions ?
*
Thanks for the heads up... Will research more on this stock.

TSHansel
post Oct 25 2015, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Oct 25 2015, 08:10 PM)
Thanks for the heads up... Will research more on this stock.
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You are welcome,... awaiting your opinions,....

TSHansel
post Oct 27 2015, 11:50 AM

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After almost one week since Keppel Corp reported her earnings, the mkt lost some faith on the words by the BOD. This is reflected by the drop in the share price to a low of $7.17 this morning.

In the meantime, crude price has dropped to USD43.30/bbl.

On my side. I wouldn't mind if Keppel's price drops till below $7.00.
TSHansel
post Oct 27 2015, 11:53 AM

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Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) stays at $2.00 and above for yesterday and today,... what that is worth noting is that FCT will begin its Asset Enhance Initiative on one of its malls, namely NOrthpoint Mall from March 2016.

The ROI record for FCT's AEI activities has been acceptable. I will be watching closely for the announced ROI target from the management for this AEI.
TSHansel
post Oct 28 2015, 11:37 AM

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' QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 28 2015, 08:35 AM)

I don't think oil price will stay low forever.

The further sliding down of oil price from current level, will "destruct" a lot of capital investment which could mean supply destruction for longer term future.

1-2 years staying low, highly possible, but don't think so for more than 5-7 years time frame.

It could be the repeating history of oil price during end of 1990's era, whereby oil price went nearly USD10/barrel, which if looked back, was the reason why there was super bull run of oil price 5-7 years later on.

*
it has been a year now.

not forever, not even 5 yrs - too far to see anything.

but <usd50 for another 2 yrs is likely.

world economic growth forecast slashed, slow china, slow europe.

drought, elnino, smog affecting se asia productivity, australian growth.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ity-says-report
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-up-heat-on-rba

oil storage very full, tankers idling at sea, q'in at ports, china big stockpiles.

no big "oil consumption engine".

the damage done is severe - loss of jobs, little capex now spent, oil/oil service cos. consolidating...

effect will be serious and long lasting.


i will not put my money on oil/energy at this time, local or foreign. more pain to come, imo.'

Based on the above comments by Cherroy and AVFAN from the other thread, we can see the sentiment is really causing Keppel Corp to drop further yeaterday (though holding at a low of 7.13 till now this morning).

I will remain steady,.... and stalking patiently to go in. This is the time to see how will Keppel's other businesses will do their part to offset the decline in their Offshore and Marine Business Segment.
elea88
post Oct 28 2015, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 27 2015, 11:50 AM)
After almost one week since Keppel Corp reported her earnings, the mkt lost some faith on the words by the BOD. This is reflected by the drop in the share price to a low of $7.17 this morning.

In the meantime, crude price has dropped to USD43.30/bbl.

On my side. I wouldn't mind if Keppel's price drops till below $7.00.
*
PRICE STILL stablize at 7 plus.... u collecting?
nexona88
post Oct 28 2015, 06:46 PM

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Indonesia's Lippo to shift REITs from Singapore to Indonesia
QUOTE
Lippo Group plans to shift two real estate investment trusts (REITs) with 35 trillion rupiah ($2.6 billion) in assets from Singapore to Indonesia next year in order to benefit from new tax breaks offered by Jakarta.

Lippo's move could be followed by at least two other property companies in Indonesia that say they are exploring spinning off assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars into REITs, potentially creating a REIT market that could rival Singapore's if Jakarta executes its policy pledges.

Its two Singapore-listed REITs are Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust and First Real Estate Investment Trust.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...esia/?style=biz
TSHansel
post Oct 28 2015, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Oct 28 2015, 01:24 PM)
PRICE STILL stablize at 7 plus.... u collecting?
*
Hi,... it looks like Keppel Corp has more to drop. I'll hold my bullets for now. In the meantime, Keppel has announced this evening that it has completed delivery for one unit of FELS rig for an entity in Saudi Arabia. This is one good piece of news.
TSHansel
post Oct 28 2015, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 28 2015, 06:46 PM)
Indonesia's Lippo to shift REITs from Singapore to Indonesia

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...esia/?style=biz
*
Tq nexona,... this is news indeed. I wonder what the mechanism for the 'shift' would be. Is it to delist from the SGX followed by an IPO in the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSE) ? Then the currency of holding will shift from the SGD to the Indonesian Rupiah...
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post Oct 28 2015, 11:10 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 28 2015, 11:07 PM)
Tq nexona,... this is news indeed. I wonder what the mechanism for the 'shift' would be. Is it to delist from the SGX followed by an IPO in the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSE) ? Then the currency of holding will shift from the SGD to the Indonesian Rupiah...
*
Report didn't say anything in detail, but I guess like what u said or dual listing hmm.gif icon_question.gif
TSHansel
post Oct 28 2015, 11:19 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 28 2015, 11:10 PM)
Report didn't say anything in detail, but I guess like what u said or dual listing  hmm.gif  icon_question.gif
*
If dual listing, then the hospital properties will be divided among the two REITs. DPU will be divided out... Either way, it 's not very good news for unitholders.
nexona88
post Oct 28 2015, 11:21 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 28 2015, 11:19 PM)
If dual listing, then the hospital properties will be divided among the two REITs. DPU will be divided out... Either way, it 's not very good news for unitholders.
*
better to wait for more details from them.
now too much speculation blush.gif
elea88
post Oct 29 2015, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 28 2015, 11:21 PM)
better to wait for more details from them.
now too much speculation  blush.gif
*
in response to news.. First reit stats to dipped.
TSHansel
post Oct 30 2015, 12:43 PM

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First REIT, SGX - AW9U :-

1) On Wednesday, October 28th., 2015, the following news came out from Reuters:-

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/28/...N11900V20151028

AW9U closed at $1.32 on the same day.

2) On Thursday, October 29th., 2015, AW9U opened at 1.32, dropped all the way to 1.20, then recovered to 1.24, and closed at 1.24. On the same day, the following news were disclosed to the SGX :-

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/First%20RE...t&FileID=375486

In short : the Manager of First REIT said : As at the date of this announcement, the Manager is not aware and has not been informed by First REIT's sponsor, PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (the “Sponsor”) of the Sponsor’s plans as set out in the Article.

http://lmir.listedcompany.com/newsroom/201...WE3MLHCE8.1.pdf

In short : the Manager of Lippo Malls Indonesia Trust said : the Manager is not aware and has not been informed by the sponsor on their plans to shift.

3) Today, October 30th., 2015, AW9U opened at 1.205, dropped till 1.15, recovered to 1.18 as of NOW.

No official disclosures to the regulators yet by Fisr REIT nor by LMIRT till now. Questions posed to the IR have not been replied to yet till now.

Comments :-

1) What is the REIT regulations available in the JSE that may cater for these two REITs if they should decide to shift over ?

2) The Reuters report said : Indonesia's government last week announced incentives aimed at getting companies to create REITs by removing double taxation that may apply to such businesses.

The incentives were announced last week. Does this mean the implementation of the incentives would materialise ?

3) In a related report by the Edge :-

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...esia/?style=biz

Mr James Riady said : "Because of the government policy, we think Indonesia has very good potential for REITs,".

He did not mention that he will shift the two currently existing REITs to the JSE. He may be thinking about setting-up new REITs for his other properties in Indonesia.

4) Will any CEO intentionally kill a productive golden goose and then try to raise another one at another place ?

5) The SGX is experienced in the running of REITs with an established REIT market, has great incentives, has the largest REIT market in Asia ex-Japan, has international investors coming to invest in her REITs, and has great currency..

The JSE promises to give to give better tax incentives in order to spur up their REIT market.

Perhaps Indonesian property developers who have no external REIT presence may want to capitalise on this new incentive scheme in the JSE, to try it out and to hope that everything turns out well. But again, to kill a golden goose from another place and try out in a less-developed environment ?

Edited to correct grammar errors...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 30 2015, 12:45 PM
TSHansel
post Oct 30 2015, 05:43 PM

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Recovered today from noon to ard $1.25, then closed at $1.24. Let's see what ann'ts appear from AW9U and LMIRT on Monday, November 02, if any.

Steady.
AVFAN
post Oct 30 2015, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 30 2015, 05:43 PM)
Recovered today from noon to ard $1.25, then closed at $1.24. Let's see what ann'ts appear from AW9U and LMIRT on Monday, November 02, if any.

Steady.
*
QUOTE
Mr James Riady said : "Because of the government policy, we think Indonesia has very good potential for REITs,".

He did not mention that he will shift the two currently existing REITs to the JSE. He may be thinking about setting-up new REITs for his other properties in Indonesia.


http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/f...-reuters-report

this riady guy is either testing for reaction for hidden agenda or an idiot, should know how to communicate better and more responsibly.

i have lost faith in INDON equities.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 30 2015, 07:00 PM
TSHansel
post Oct 30 2015, 07:58 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 30 2015, 06:39 PM)
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/f...-reuters-report

this riady guy is either testing for reaction for hidden agenda or an idiot, should know how to communicate better and more responsibly.

i have lost faith in INDON equities.
*
Hi AV,... agreed. With my analyses in-place, let's see what happens. Reactions in the coming days and weeks from the SG market as a whole and the worldwide investors of First REIT will give a clearer picture of what's coming.

Steady,...
AVFAN
post Oct 30 2015, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 30 2015, 07:58 PM)
Hi AV,... agreed. With my analyses in-place, let's see what happens. Reactions in the coming days and weeks from the SG market as a whole and the worldwide investors of First REIT will give a clearer picture of what's coming.

Steady,...
*
the thing is it's been more than than 2 days since he made that statement.

it cannot be without reason that he and his office chose not to correct what he said.

speaks volume of the man.
Showtime747
post Oct 30 2015, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 30 2015, 09:04 PM)
the thing is it's been more than than 2 days since he made that statement.

it cannot be without reason that he and his office chose not to correct what he said.

speaks volume of the man.
*
And SGX never question the managers of both Reits too. There should be a filing with SGX (or clarification) with such material announcement by the group CEO


edit : actually the manager did http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/First%20RE...t&FileID=375486

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Oct 30 2015, 09:24 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 30 2015, 09:24 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 30 2015, 09:18 PM)
And SGX never question the managers of both Reits too. There should be a filing with SGX (or clarification) with such material announcement by the group CEO
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that too.

somebody need to be sacked!
Showtime747
post Oct 30 2015, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 30 2015, 09:24 PM)
that too.

somebody need to be sacked!
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Sorry they did. They say they are not aware of the plan
TSHansel
post Oct 30 2015, 11:37 PM

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Gents,... somebody has already asked the IR on both managers what material find did they discover upon checking with the sponsor, pursuant to the statements quoted by Reuters against the sponsor's CEO.

Sure, the managers said they are not aware, but pursuant to one of the Listing Regulations, something of this nature, which highly affects the trading of units in the exchange requires a response from the issuer. THIS IS SINGAPORE, we can do our part here, transparency is the utmost quality.

We are now awaiting replies from IR on how their sponsor is replying to them.

Edited by adding the second para above.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Oct 30 2015, 11:42 PM
elea88
post Oct 31 2015, 06:59 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 30 2015, 06:39 PM)
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/f...-reuters-report

this riady guy is either testing for reaction for hidden agenda or an idiot, should know how to communicate better and more responsibly.

i have lost faith in INDON equities.
*
yes,.. just stick to those Prop inSingapore....!!!!! Less forex headache.
elea88
post Nov 2 2015, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 28 2015, 11:00 PM)
Hi,... it looks like Keppel Corp has more to drop. I'll hold my bullets for now. In the meantime, Keppel has announced this evening that it has completed delivery for one unit of FELS rig for an entity in Saudi Arabia. This is one good piece of news.
*
Keppel Corp. Below 7 . Any idea if still consistent div?
TSHansel
post Nov 2 2015, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 2 2015, 10:51 AM)
Keppel Corp. Below 7 . Any idea if still consistent div?
*
I'm sorry,... I have not counted yet,... I have got my hands full with Saizen REIT and First REIT. smile.gif

On a very broad-based strategy, I would say the move now should be to hold back our purchases. The Feds are hinting again of a rate hike in mid-December - the mkt will look at this and chances are it will drop further. At this time, for whatever funds we have available, out it into Sgp FD first.

Accumulate bullets, 'when the prices have dropped sufficiently', then buy-up the targetted counters.

If we can enter at a good price, even if the dividend drops, the yield will still be acceptable.
elea88
post Nov 2 2015, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 2 2015, 11:52 AM)
I'm sorry,... I have not counted yet,... I have got my hands full with Saizen REIT and First REIT.  smile.gif

On a very broad-based strategy, I would say the move now should be to hold back our purchases. The Feds are hinting again of a rate hike in mid-December - the mkt will look at this and chances are it will drop further. At this time, for whatever funds we have available, out it into Sgp FD first.

Accumulate bullets, 'when the prices have dropped sufficiently', then buy-up the targetted counters.

If we can enter at a good price, even if the dividend drops, the yield will still be acceptable.
*
SAIZEN.. u make money

FIRST REIT.. that one is pening..
as current price above NAV.
AVFAN
post Nov 2 2015, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 2 2015, 11:52 AM)
I'm sorry,... I have not counted yet,... I have got my hands full with Saizen REIT and First REIT.  smile.gif

On a very broad-based strategy, I would say the move now should be to hold back our purchases. The Feds are hinting again of a rate hike in mid-December - the mkt will look at this and chances are it will drop further. At this time, for whatever funds we have available, out it into Sgp FD first.

Accumulate bullets, 'when the prices have dropped sufficiently', then buy-up the targetted counters.

If we can enter at a good price, even if the dividend drops, the yield will still be acceptable.
*
this round, i am with you.

i am not buying anything new after selling some in sgx and nyse.

will keep my head down and see what happens by Xmas.

let's shout if we think it is time to buy! laugh.gif


TSHansel
post Nov 2 2015, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 2 2015, 01:13 PM)
SAIZEN.. u make money

FIRST REIT.. that one is pening..
as current price above NAV.
*
For Saizen,.. rclxms.gif , however, I am not really happy to make this type of money. For after making this money, I have to start all over again to look for another instrument to maintain my passive income. I have to do my studying again.

First REIT - don't move too fast,... watch first. One mkt observer this morning said that it is not easy for First REIT to simply just delist from the SG mkt and run away. He is not talking about the mechanics of delisting, but more towards the commitments that FR has put in-place, eg the SGD-denom rental payments from the Indonesian hospitals to the managers in Sgp.
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post Nov 2 2015, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 2 2015, 02:01 PM)
this round, i am with you.

i am not buying anything new after selling some in sgx and nyse.

will keep my head down and see what happens by Xmas.

let's shout if we think it is time to buy! laugh.gif
*
rclxms.gif

I heard Ms Yellen is giving a presentation to a US Govern't economic committee on Wednesday, US Time. More hints to come from there.
TSHansel
post Nov 2 2015, 02:28 PM

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As we speak, the following SGX counters have dipped further :-

1) OCBC Bank
2) Keppel Corp
3) Frasers Centrepoint Trust
4) Keppel DC REIT

The following SGX counters have stayed their course :-

1)AimsAmp Capital REIT
2)IREIT Global

Down they go,...hopefully,... rclxms.gif

Edited to correct information...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Nov 2 2015, 02:30 PM
Showtime747
post Nov 2 2015, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 2 2015, 02:01 PM)
this round, i am with you.

i am not buying anything new after selling some in sgx and nyse.

will keep my head down and see what happens by Xmas.

let's shout if we think it is time to buy! laugh.gif
*
Singtel < 4.00
OCBC < 9.00
DBS near < 17
UOB near <20
Soilbuild very near <0.80
Cache < 1.00
Suntec near <1.60
Mapletree near <1.50

Go go go, back to 27xx like in late September tongue.gif

TSHansel
post Nov 2 2015, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 2 2015, 04:19 PM)
Singtel < 4.00
OCBC < 9.00
DBS near < 17
UOB near <20
Soilbuild very near <0.80
Cache < 1.00
Suntec near <1.60
Mapletree near <1.50

Go go go, back to 27xx like in late September  tongue.gif
*
thumbup.gif We are not shorting the mkt, but we are encouraging the shorting of the mkt.

TSHansel
post Nov 3 2015, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 16 2015, 04:52 PM)
Hi,...if Silverlake has not settled the accounting issues yet, then it is a good time to do some trading now and take some profits while awaiting further. However, if the acct'g issues are settled via a report from the independent auditors appointed by Silverlake, then I believed the price of this counter would go up nearer to 90 cents. I have not followed this counter very much,... when is the independent auditor due to release the report of its findings ?

The thing that caught my eye about Silverlake was its recurring income stream after a software package has been sold, or an upgrade has been completed for a banking customer. Many large financial organizations in South East Asia use their software solutions.
Since I am looking closely at Silverlake Axis too,I would like to reflect on the above posting that I made back in October 16, 2016. SAL held its AGM on October 26th., and one of the attendees provided the feedback as below on his observation at the AGM :-

I had to leave after 2 hrs of shareholders questioning the board on various resolutions. Generally, the points summarized as follow:

1. Shareholder question about razor99 short sell report.
2. Board appointed Deloitte to investigate report and the results were not out before AGM.
3. Understandably some shareholders did not find it fit that queries were not being addressed which forms the basis of the financial report. (technicality: I believe the resolution is to accept the accuracy financial report numbers rather than the integrity of the company and its financials. YMMV)
4. Many going back and forth. Chairman kept highlighting that he need to spend lots of time to explain details and that there is a system/professionals that should be respected.
5. Imo my feel is that the board should have prepared shareholders with very clear disclaimers beforehand and handled situation better. Noted that newly appointed director munir did eventually say that in his own capacity, he is not aware of any corruption by silverlake during his previous tenure in related banking.
6. Also felt that there were some queries that the board could not keep addressing without getting into trouble.. Unfortunately for the board, their words hold more liability in public space than the shareholders.

-------------------------------------------------

Above highlighted sentence puts a lot of doubts in investors' mind.




TSHansel
post Nov 4 2015, 11:39 AM

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How credible is the following study conducted by The Legatum Institute ? If it is credible enough, and Sgp can sustain this performance, then we should consider ourselves fortunate to be situated so close to this great island-state.

Invest all the way into Sgp, if we are of the view that this is true. Our retirement funds investment haven....

The 2015 Legatum Prosperity Index, a project by the Legatum Institute that annually ranks countries’ prosperity based on income and wellbeing, has placed Singapore at the top of its Economy sub-index. The country has climbed one place higher each year in the Economy sub-index since it ranked third in 2013. Singapore beat 142 other countries such as Switzerland, which held the spot last year and is now 2nd, and China, which is 3rd.

Link : http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/singapore-b...conomy-in-world

Edited by adding : Of course, when something is good, there will be contenders and people fighting for that thing. A very good case here is : First REIT. The Indonesian Gov't sees that first REIT can do well in Sgp, hence they are trying to replicate this in their slowing economy.

Investors in Sgp will hold the price up,... if First REIT wishes to delist and shift, then they should compensate investors well enough for this good counter. Not just give us back 15% above nav,.....

What is fair ?????????? smile.gif

This post has been edited by Hansel: Nov 4 2015, 11:44 AM
TSHansel
post Nov 4 2015, 06:24 PM

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Just came across the fact that another favourite counter of mine, namely Singpost, has announced results om Nov 2nd, ie two days ago. Missed the result ann't...

Dividend for the second quarter of FY2015 has increased from 1.25 cts per share to 1.50 cts per share. Being an Sgp-based entity, headquartered in Sgp with assets in many parts of Asia Pacific, there is a very slim chance that the management will 'shift' the listing to another bourse besides the SGX.
AVFAN
post Nov 9 2015, 05:10 PM

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i like this JUMBO story!

sgd40 mil cap of chili crabs, bakuteh and ramen. thumbup.gif

QUOTE
Jumbo Group Ltd., a Singapore-based operator of chili-crab restaurants, surged in its trading debut after selling shares in the city’s biggest initial public offering this year to investors including a Temasek Holdings Pte unit and Osim International Ltd. Chairman Ron Sim.
The shares rose as much as 58 percent to an intraday high of 39.5 Singapore cents before trading at 36.5 Singapore cents as of 11:26 a.m. in the city-state. Jumbo sold shares at 25 Singapore cents each in its IPO, which raised S$40 million ($28 million) from investors including Heliconia Capital Management Pte, a unit of the Singapore state investment firm.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...n-trading-debut

user posted image


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 9 2015, 05:10 PM
elea88
post Nov 9 2015, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 9 2015, 05:10 PM)
i like this JUMBO story!

sgd40 mil cap of chili crabs, bakuteh and ramen. thumbup.gif
*
after sale of FIRST REIT, what u getting?

JUMBO?.... Food items recession proof.. haha
AVFAN
post Nov 9 2015, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 9 2015, 07:47 PM)
after sale of FIRST REIT, what u getting?

JUMBO?.... Food items recession proof.. haha
*
no jumbo, that was for fun. biggrin.gif
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 07:36 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 9 2015, 07:47 PM)
after sale of FIRST REIT, what u getting?

JUMBO?.... Food items recession proof.. haha
*
I'm still watching Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Keppel Corp. Keppel DC REIT is a 'boutique' REIT that I'm looking at too. It came out in the Business Times last week that the non-traditional REITs are slowly finding their ways into the SGX.

Perhaps investors should have a look at non-traditional, boutique REITs too.
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 07:37 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 9 2015, 10:46 PM)
no jumbo, that was for fun. biggrin.gif
*
If you like Food Junction, you can use the same methodology to analyse Jumbo.
AVFAN
post Nov 11 2015, 08:03 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 11 2015, 07:36 PM)
I'm still watching Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Keppel Corp. Keppel DC REIT is a 'boutique' REIT that I'm looking at too. It came out in the Business Times last week that the non-traditional REITs are slowly finding their ways into the SGX.

Perhaps investors should have a look at non-traditional, boutique REITs too.
*
i reserved my last bullets for Keppel DC.

will see if i get the chance...
Vector88
post Nov 11 2015, 08:28 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 11 2015, 07:36 PM)
I'm still watching Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Keppel Corp. Keppel DC REIT is a 'boutique' REIT that I'm looking at too. It came out in the Business Times last week that the non-traditional REITs are slowly finding their ways into the SGX.

Perhaps investors should have a look at non-traditional, boutique REITs too.
*
I like keppel DC too and hence vested. Data center demand will have healthy growth thanks to exponential growth in internet and cloud computing...

Keppel DC price didn't move much in recent market rout...

TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 08:28 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 11 2015, 08:03 PM)
i reserved my last bullets for Keppel DC.

will see if i get the chance...
*
What are your opinions of KDC ? smile.gif
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 08:34 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Nov 11 2015, 08:28 PM)
I like keppel DC too and hence vested. Data center demand will have healthy growth thanks to exponential growth in internet and cloud computing...

Keppel DC price didn't move much in recent market rout...
*
The biggest challenge for KDC REIT is forex risks. Many of the assets are overseas, except for the USA. The SGD, being such a strong currency is now seen to be disadvantageous to REIT investors when it comes to rental collection, unless the rental is TO BE COLLECTED in the SGD, or even partially denoted in the SGD, like First REIT.

Unfortunately, since the days of First REIT's IPO, investors have NOT MANAGED to influence for rentals to be collected in the SGD anymore. The magic could only work once, and that was with First REIT.
Vector88
post Nov 11 2015, 08:41 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 11 2015, 08:34 PM)
The biggest challenge for KDC REIT is forex risks. Many of the assets are overseas, except for the USA. The SGD, being such a strong currency is now seen to be disadvantageous to REIT investors when it comes to rental collection, unless the rental is TO BE COLLECTED in the SGD, or even partially denoted in the SGD, like First REIT.

Unfortunately, since the days of First REIT's IPO, investors have NOT MANAGED to influence for rentals to be collected in the SGD anymore. The magic could only work once, and that was with First REIT.
*
Another cons is it is trading well above its NAV, about 20% premium i think.
Good thing is it is quite a young reit, and with its healthy gearing of 30%, it should growing inorganicly via acquisition, translating into higher DPU. This should be able to offset any drop in DPU due to forex risk
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post Nov 11 2015, 08:44 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 11 2015, 08:28 PM)
What are your opinions of KDC ?  smile.gif
*
u and vector already said, no need my comments. laugh.gif
TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 08:53 PM

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Thanks gents,.. okay, I have this to say about the price being below the nav.

Sometimes, it does not really mean that a REIT or a stock is worthy to buy if the price is below its nav. Experience tells me that if a REIT or a stock cannot get its price above nav, there are reasons for this. One possibility is because the REIT or stock is not good enough, that's why the mkt does not accord the proper price to the counter.

On the other hand, if a ctr has its price being above its nav, the reason could be because it is good enough to be there, and the mkt is willing to buy it at the higher price. But of course, certainly 20% is a bit too high-lar,...

The concept of : good things not cheap and cheap things not good is applicable to REIT units and stocks too.
Vector88
post Nov 11 2015, 09:02 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 11 2015, 08:53 PM)
Thanks gents,.. okay, I have this to say about the price being below the nav.

Sometimes, it does not really mean that a REIT or a stock is worthy to buy if the price is below its nav. Experience tells me that if a REIT or a stock cannot get its price above nav, there are reasons for this. One possibility is because the REIT or stock is not good enough, that's why the mkt does not accord the proper price to the counter.

On the other hand, if a ctr has its price being above its nav, the reason could be because it is good enough to be there, and the mkt is willing to buy it at the higher price. But of course, certainly 20% is a bit too high-lar,...

The concept of : good things not cheap and cheap things not good is applicable to REIT units and stocks too.
*
On this NAV thing, Keppel Dc reit is still in growing phase, meaning it will grow its asset via acquisitions. So NAV will go up sooner or later right? So probably market is anticipating this and hence willing to pay premium above its CURRENT NAV ?

TSHansel
post Nov 11 2015, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Nov 11 2015, 09:02 PM)
On this NAV thing, Keppel Dc reit is still in growing phase, meaning it will grow its asset via acquisitions. So NAV will go up sooner or later right? So probably market is anticipating this and hence willing to pay premium above its CURRENT NAV ?
*
Right,... the mkt could be pricing in the fact that this REIT is worth 20% more than its current nav, because of this positive fact that its nav will go up after more asset purchases. This is a very big positive sign.

On the dpu and the forex risk, I guessed the most impt thing is the yield. After factoring-in an increase in the dpu and a 'damaging' effect from the powerful Sing Dollar, let's see what yield will it arrive at.

Some news about SREITs in general... for your reading pleasure :-

REITs roll out desperate tactics to drive growth in tough times Check out these interesting trends seen in Q3.

REITs are struggling to keep investors happy as growth slows. A report by Barclays highlighted some tactics that REIT managers have used to keep their results solid in Q3. Barclays noted that more REITs are embarking on acquisitions to diversify their portfolios, particularly in light of the cooling domestic property market. For instance, AREIT embarked on an acquisition spree in Australia, while MLT has also snapped up properties in Australia and Vietnam.

More REITs are also propping up their falling dividends with divestment gains, such as KREIT and Suntec.

Lastly, REITs are turning to issuing perpetual securities to reduce their gearing after the MAS imposed a single-tier leverage limit of 45% in July, such as KREIT and AREIT.

“Our quarterly scorecard shows industrial REITs in general performing better than expected with average DPU rising 5% y/y and 1% q/q, helped by a positive policy change. Office REITs continued to show signs of cracks. While Fed rate hikes remain an overhang for SREITs, valuations don’t look expensive,” said Barclays.
TSHansel
post Nov 13 2015, 10:17 AM

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This morning,...

1) FCT has dipped further to 1.890.

2) Keppel Corp has dipped further to 6.810.

3) OCBC dipped to 8.920.

4) Keppel DC REIT stayed at 1.040.

Steady,...hold your fire....
yck1987
post Nov 13 2015, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 13 2015, 10:17 AM)
This morning,...

1) FCT has dipped further to 1.890.

2) Keppel Corp has dipped further to 6.810.

3) OCBC dipped to 8.920.

4) Keppel DC REIT stayed at 1.040.

Steady,...hold your fire....
*
I'm holding my reserve bullet too. Please give a shout when the right timing approaching. unsure.gif
TSHansel
post Nov 13 2015, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Nov 13 2015, 10:29 AM)
I'm holding my reserve bullet too. Please give a shout when the right timing approaching.  unsure.gif
*
biggrin.gif Will try my best TO TIME,...but don't blame me if I got it a bit wrong,.. smile.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 16 2015, 02:18 PM

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What's you guys waiting for ? tongue.gif
yck1987
post Nov 16 2015, 02:36 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 16 2015, 02:18 PM)
What's you guys waiting for ?  tongue.gif
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Mai tu liao.. Just buy in Keppel Corp @ 6.76. nod.gif
how about you? brows.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 16 2015, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Nov 16 2015, 02:36 PM)
Mai tu liao.. Just buy in Keppel Corp @ 6.76.    nod.gif
how about you?  brows.gif
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Very happy today thumbup.gif
elea88
post Nov 16 2015, 06:05 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 16 2015, 02:18 PM)
What's you guys waiting for ?  tongue.gif
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Waiting for Hansel to advise.. haha
Showtime747
post Nov 16 2015, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 16 2015, 06:05 PM)
Waiting for Hansel to advise.. haha
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He is online now. Probably typing his 500 words advice to us tongue.gif
yck1987
post Nov 16 2015, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 16 2015, 07:24 PM)
He is online now. Probably typing his 500 words advice to us  tongue.gif
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He ask to hold our warchest !
TSHansel
post Nov 17 2015, 09:24 AM

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Good morning, apologies for the silence. The SG mkt has more to drop,... if wishes to nibble, I think should start around December.

Well,... I know that it's not possible to time the mkt, but I'm kinda like applying my experience from the 2007/8 plunge. I bought-in a bit early too back in 2008.


TSHansel
post Nov 17 2015, 09:33 AM

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Back in 2009/9, looking at hindsight, I bought in too early,... immediately when everything started going down, I bought-in. Then Enron collapsed, followed by Lehman, and I kept buying-in at each point as the mkt dropped.

So,... this time, I'll just be patient first.

Edited by adding : I'm not waiting for a collapse like Lehman to take place,... this is too far-fetched to predict, but at least I will look at the metrics which govern the SGX and the weightage of each metrics as they weaken everyday. The higher the weightage of a metric that dropped, the closer it is to the bottom.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Nov 17 2015, 09:36 AM
TSHansel
post Nov 18 2015, 05:07 PM

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Dropped again today - Keppel Corp at 6.69 low....Steady...
AVFAN
post Nov 18 2015, 05:21 PM

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i've been waiting for singtel to go to 3.60.

no chance, so far...

TSHansel
post Nov 18 2015, 06:25 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 18 2015, 05:21 PM)
i've been waiting for singtel to go to 3.60.

no chance, so far...
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hmm.gif Singtel is a Utility Counter,...hard to say,...
yck1987
post Nov 18 2015, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 18 2015, 05:07 PM)
Dropped again today - Keppel Corp at 6.69 low....Steady...
*
doh.gif shall wait for more drop.
TSHansel
post Nov 19 2015, 08:51 PM

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First REIT rose to 1.19 today after it announced an acquisition. However,........the acquisition comprises one hospital and one plaza. The question becomes why is the plaza lumped into First REIT too...

The plaza should have been sold to Lippo Maple Indo Retail Trust. Is everything being lumped into First REIT in preparation for delisting...
TSHansel
post Nov 23 2015, 08:53 PM

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A good read to guard against a Fed rate hike - https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/artic...--11050?lang=en


yck1987
post Nov 23 2015, 09:04 PM

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Pls enlighten Banking stocks are value buy now ? tempted to get one or two of them ..
TSHansel
post Nov 23 2015, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Nov 23 2015, 09:04 PM)
Pls enlighten Banking stocks are value buy now ?  tempted to get one or two of them ..
*
I think the three Sgp banks will be affected by a heavy knee-jerk reaction when the Feds starts the hike. It is a natural reaction from big institutions, and Sgp banks are certainly big institutions.

The inst investors must selloff, and misprice the mkt. That's the time to go in.
yck1987
post Nov 23 2015, 11:14 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 23 2015, 09:18 PM)
I think the three Sgp banks will be affected by a heavy knee-jerk reaction when the Feds starts the hike. It is a natural reaction from big institutions, and Sgp banks are certainly big institutions. 

The inst investors must selloff, and misprice the mkt. That's the time to go in.
*
When the time FED raise interest rates, I immediately think of benefit sector would be the bank as bank can make more profit on charging higher interest from borrower and directly increase the yield on cash. My thought was isn't it bank like higher interest? hmm.gif

Or in fact, rising rates may hurt bank interest margins/profits. One reason is that, as the “cost” of money goes up, a fixed-rate, long-term loan locked in when rates were lower is now less profitable. So if Fed-mandated short rates move up faster than market-driven long rates, interest margins get squeezed.

Which one is correct?
TSHansel
post Nov 24 2015, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Nov 23 2015, 11:14 PM)
When the time FED raise interest rates, I immediately think of benefit sector would be the bank as bank can make more profit on charging higher interest from borrower and directly increase the yield on cash. My thought was isn't it bank like higher interest?  hmm.gif

Or in fact, rising rates may hurt bank interest margins/profits. One reason is that, as the “cost” of money goes up, a fixed-rate, long-term loan locked in when rates were lower is now less profitable. So if Fed-mandated short rates move up faster than market-driven long rates, interest margins get squeezed.

Which one is correct?
*
Both of your first two paras above will contribute to the list of possible benefits and threats to the Sgp banks when the Feds raise interest rates. The net effects will be felt down the road. At the point when the Feds confirm raising, the Sgp banks will trend down and provide us a window of opportunity to buy.

The prb is how long the window is, before it closes. Then the price will trend upwards.

TSHansel
post Nov 24 2015, 09:20 AM

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For those aiming for Keppel Corp, folloiwng is a news worth reading :-

image: http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/...ogoNewEmail.gif

Baker Hughes Incorporated has posted Weekly Rig Count reports to its Investor Relations website.

BHI Rig Count: U.S. -10 to 757 rigs

U.S. Rig Count is down 10 rigs from last week to 757, with oil rigs down 10 to 564, and gas rigs unchanged at 193.

U.S. Rig Count is down 1,172 rigs from last year at 1,929, with oil rigs down 1,010, and gas rigs down 162.


The U.S. Offshore rig count is 30, down 3 rigs from last week, and down 23 rigs year over year.


BHI Rig Count: Canada -10 at 166 rigs

Canadian Rig Count is down 10 rigs from last week to 166, with oil rigs down 1 to 67, and gas rigs down 9 to 99.

Canadian Rig Count is down 268 rigs from last year at 434, with oil rigs down 176, and gas rigs down 92.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday schedule, the next North American rig count will be published on November 25, 2015 at 1 p.m. ET.
AVFAN
post Nov 27 2015, 11:13 PM

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QUOTE
Singapore Banks Face Risk From Weaker Credit, FX Moves: MAS
Chanyaporn Chanjaroen  Christopher Langner
@Asia_G3
November 27, 2015 — 12:00 PM MYT Updated on November 27, 2015 — 1:33 PM MYT

Weaker corporate balance sheets and currency market volatility pose risks to Singapore lenders, though the local banking system remains resilient, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said Friday.
Non-performing loans have increased, and moves in emerging Asian currencies "could exacerbate foreign currency mismatch risks for banks in Singapore," the Singapore central bank said in its annual financial stability report.
"The turning credit cycle poses risks to Singapore’s banking system. Asset quality remains healthy, but there are signs of increased credit risks alongside weaknesses in corporate balance sheets," the MAS said.
The non-performing loan ratio among Singapore banks rose to 1.5 percent in the third quarter of 2015, from 1.1 percent a year earlier, the central bank said. Bad loans have risen in the manufacturing sector, and banks with exposure to trade may see higher credit risks, the monetary authority said.
“It is important for our financial sector to continue to be vigilant to new or growing risks as highlighted in the report as external headwinds and contagion risks have intensified,” MAS deputy managing director Ong Chong Tee said. However, the report also demonstrates that Singapore’s banks, companies and households are “resilient to potential vulnerabilities and shocks,” he added.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-moves-mas-says
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 27 2015, 11:14 PM
TSHansel
post Nov 29 2015, 12:19 PM

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As the STI dives further,........... I tell my heart,... patience, patience,...steady, steady,...
yck1987
post Nov 29 2015, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 29 2015, 12:19 PM)
As the STI dives further,........... I tell my heart,... patience, patience,...steady, steady,...
*
opportunities month is coming .......
Q-C
post Nov 30 2015, 09:57 AM

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guys i am confused now
lets say i have 20 lots of 0.21 SGD share.

If i sell how much would i get back?

TSHansel
post Nov 30 2015, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Nov 29 2015, 05:13 PM)
opportunities month is coming .......
*
Yeah,...still watching, watching,...
TSHansel
post Nov 30 2015, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(Q-C @ Nov 30 2015, 09:57 AM)
guys i am confused now
lets say i have 20 lots of 0.21 SGD share.

If i sell how much would i get back?
*
Your transaction would return you a gross take-back of 0.21 SGD x 20 x 100 = 420 SGD.

Starting from 2015 : 1 lot = 100 shares only.

If you are still referring to 1 lot as carrying 1000 shares, then your gross take-back would be 4200 SGD.

Subsequently, you would need to minus out the following charges from your transaction :-

1) Brokerage Charge. Since your transaction amt is not big, the minimum brokerage would be imposed, generally = 25 SGD.

2) Clearing and Misc Fees (can't remember the name of the third one), in your case, would not be more than, say about 3 SGD.

Hence, your net take-back would be 420 SGD - (25 SGD + 3 SGD) = 392 SGD.

If your 1 lot = 1000 shares, then your net take-back would be 4200 SGD - (25 SGD + 3 SGD) = 4172 SGD.

Hope the above helps,....

Q-C
post Nov 30 2015, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 30 2015, 11:48 AM)
Your transaction would return you a gross take-back of 0.21 SGD x 20 x 100 = 420 SGD.

Starting from 2015 : 1 lot = 100 shares only.

If you are still referring to 1 lot as carrying 1000 shares, then your gross take-back would be 4200 SGD.

Subsequently, you would need to minus out the following charges from your transaction :-

1) Brokerage Charge. Since your transaction amt is not big, the minimum brokerage would be imposed, generally = 25 SGD.

2) Clearing and Misc Fees (can't remember the name of the third one), in your case, would not be more than, say about 3 SGD.

Hence, your net take-back would be 420 SGD - (25 SGD + 3 SGD) = 392 SGD.

If your 1 lot = 1000 shares, then your net take-back would be 4200 SGD - (25 SGD + 3 SGD) = 4172 SGD.

Hope the above helps,....
*
Ok. i am going to sell it cause not making money. bought wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy back at 0.5 SGD.
TSHansel
post Nov 30 2015, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(Q-C @ Nov 30 2015, 11:55 AM)
Ok. i am going to sell it cause not making money. bought wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy back at 0.5 SGD.
*
If you don't mind,...what is the name of the counter ?
yck1987
post Nov 30 2015, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 30 2015, 11:48 AM)
Your transaction would return you a gross take-back of 0.21 SGD x 20 x 100 = 420 SGD.

Starting from 2015 : 1 lot = 100 shares only.

If you are still referring to 1 lot as carrying 1000 shares, then your gross take-back would be 4200 SGD.

Subsequently, you would need to minus out the following charges from your transaction :-

1) Brokerage Charge. Since your transaction amt is not big, the minimum brokerage would be imposed, generally = 25 SGD.

2) Clearing and Misc Fees (can't remember the name of the third one), in your case, would not be more than, say about 3 SGD.

Hence, your net take-back would be 420 SGD - (25 SGD + 3 SGD) = 392 SGD.

If your 1 lot = 1000 shares, then your net take-back would be 4200 SGD - (25 SGD + 3 SGD) = 4172 SGD.

Hope the above helps,....
*
1) To be exact, most of the brokerage company charges minimum commision for $18-$25. For me, I'm using StandChart just 0.2% for commision 0.21SGD x 20 x 100 = $420 * 0.2% = $0.84 (see the huge different with $25 and $0.84 where your profit will contribute to the broker commision if your investment amount is rather small.

2) Clearing fees and GST charges. Clearing fees is charges about 0.0325% ($420 * 0.0325% = $0.136)
and GST 7% of total comm + clearing fees, (($0.84+0.136)*7%)= $0.068

wink.gif
Attached Image



TSHansel
post Nov 30 2015, 02:42 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Nov 30 2015, 01:31 PM)
1) To be exact, most of the brokerage company charges minimum commision for $18-$25. For me, I'm using StandChart just 0.2% for commision 0.21SGD x 20 x 100 = $420 * 0.2% = $0.84 (see the huge different with $25 and $0.84 where your profit will contribute to the broker commision if your investment amount is rather small.

2) Clearing fees and GST charges. Clearing fees is charges about 0.0325% ($420 * 0.0325% = $0.136)
and GST 7% of total comm + clearing fees, (($0.84+0.136)*7%)= $0.068

wink.gif
Attached Image
*
Thank you, yck,.. yes, you are right in our posting !

I've been using DBSV, the minimum brokerage charge is now at SGD12 till year-end. If I transact in values of SGD 6K and above, using Stanchart (at 0.2% brokerage fee) or not does not matter to me anymore. My transactions are normally above 6K.

Yes - GST Charges. Forgot abt all this...
TSHansel
post Dec 2 2015, 05:55 PM

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As we approach the day-of-reckoning for the US Feds rate hike, watch the counters' movements closely. First salvo of shells should be fired soon....
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2015, 02:24 PM

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been waiting to buy a bit more singtel.

looks stable now at 3.80-3.82, no chance to get cheaper for weeks now.

dividend ex-date is 21 dec, fed meeting outcome dec 17 early morning.

if wait for fed, must buy on dec 17-18 to get the dividends.

buy now or wait after fed meeting? hmm.gif




TSHansel
post Dec 8 2015, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2015, 02:24 PM)
been waiting to buy a bit more singtel.

looks stable now at 3.80-3.82, no chance to get cheaper for weeks now.

dividend ex-date is 21 dec, fed meeting outcome dec 17 early morning.

if wait for fed, must buy on dec 17-18 to get the dividends.

buy now or wait after fed meeting? hmm.gif
*
Hi Av,... not that keen for Singtel, sorry.

Fired my first salvo today for Frasers Centrepoint Trust at $1.870 per share.Decided not to waut till next week for the theory of all events have been priced in may hold true this time. If it is, then if Ms Yellen does increase rate next Wed morning, then FCT may not drop further. BUt if Ms Yellen does NOT increase rate next week, then FCT may rise, for which I may miss the chance to buy.

At any rate, at the current yield of 7.70%, if the DPU is reduced due to any reason and the yield drops, even if it drops by 1.00%, I can still live with 6.70%.

Subsequently, if the price drops to compensate for the yield drop, I will continue to hold this counter for I believe in its fundamentals. I will average down if this counter continues to fulfill my investment strategies.

Watching the other counters in my radar now.
Vector88
post Dec 8 2015, 08:31 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 8 2015, 08:07 PM)
Hi Av,... not that keen for Singtel, sorry.

Fired my first salvo today for Frasers Centrepoint Trust at $1.870 per share.Decided not to waut till next week for the theory of all events have been priced in may hold true this time. If it is, then if Ms Yellen does increase rate next Wed morning, then FCT may not drop further. BUt if Ms Yellen does NOT increase rate next week, then FCT may rise, for which I may miss the chance to buy.

At any rate, at the current yield of 7.70%, if the DPU is reduced due to any reason and the yield drops, even if it drops by 1.00%, I can still live with 6.70%.

Subsequently, if the price drops to compensate for the yield drop, I will continue to hold this counter for I believe in its fundamentals. I will average down if this counter continues to fulfill my investment strategies.

Watching the other counters in my radar now.
*
Bro, FCT current yield got so high ar? My calculation shows ard 6.x% with current price...2.9cents per quarter against 1.87 price..

Btw, i am vested too at 1.9, bought few weeks ago...
Increased my cash holding to 30% and wait for the show... smile.gif


TSHansel
post Dec 8 2015, 10:30 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Dec 8 2015, 08:31 PM)
Bro, FCT current yield got so high ar? My calculation shows ard 6.x% with current price...2.9cents per quarter against 1.87 price..

Btw, i am vested too at 1.9, bought few weeks ago...
Increased my cash holding to 30% and wait for the show... smile.gif
*
Hi Vector,.. thank you for pointing this out. Yes, you are right,... some errors with my calc's earlier. But it's still okay if the yield is at 6.2%. If you look at the DPU since 2006 till 2014, it has grown with a CAGR of 8%.

Edited to change the above definition.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 8 2015, 10:44 PM
yck1987
post Dec 9 2015, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 8 2015, 10:30 PM)
Hi Vector,.. thank you for pointing this out. Yes, you are right,... some errors with my calc's earlier. But it's still okay if the yield is at 6.2%. If you look at the DPU since 2006 till 2014, it has grown with a CAGR of 8%.

Edited to change the above definition.
*
My calculation show yield at 7.82% wo, (0.14497/1.855*100=7.82%) For easy DY reference , u can always refers to http://www.dividends.sg/ .
Btw, I vested in Frasers too icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by yck1987: Dec 9 2015, 05:11 PM
Vector88
post Dec 9 2015, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Dec 9 2015, 05:09 PM)
My calculation show yield at 7.82% wo, (0.14497/1.855*100=7.82%)                                                                              For easy DY reference , u can always refers to http://www.dividends.sg/ .
Btw, I vested in Frasers too  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Where got 14cents dividen per annum? Last fiscal yr only 11.8cents dividen per annum.

TSHansel
post Dec 10 2015, 01:42 PM

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yck and Vector,... the dividends.sg website is ridiculous........I got caught too, we need to refer to the actual corporate actions report and total up each dividend payout for the year to get the actual total.

THAT WEBSITE IS REALLY 'SHITTY', pardon the expression,...
yck1987
post Dec 11 2015, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 10 2015, 01:42 PM)
yck and Vector,... the dividends.sg website is ridiculous........I got caught too, we need to refer to the actual corporate actions report and total up each dividend payout for the year to get the actual total.

THAT WEBSITE IS REALLY 'SHITTY', pardon the expression,...
*
Ya, my bad. Shall directly look at the FCT website itself.
http://www.fraserscentrepointtrust.com/Inv...px#.VmouYNJ96M8

Based on current price (1.81) , divident yield is stand at 6.41%.
Hansel, did you add on units since it drop to 52 weeks lowest now? blush.gif


elea88
post Dec 11 2015, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Dec 11 2015, 10:13 AM)
Ya, my bad. Shall directly look at the FCT website itself.
http://www.fraserscentrepointtrust.com/Inv...px#.VmouYNJ96M8

Based on current price (1.81) , divident yield is stand at 6.41%.
Hansel, did you add on units since it drop to 52 weeks lowest now?  blush.gif
*
6.41% is good. Price today is 1.82.

Anyone else considring FCT?
yck1987
post Dec 11 2015, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Dec 11 2015, 11:36 AM)
6.41% is good. Price today is 1.82.

Anyone else considring FCT?
*
What stocks or Reits worth to take a look now? I drooling on banking stocks DBS & OCBC wub.gif but prices seems have not support yet.
Vector88
post Dec 11 2015, 08:51 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Dec 11 2015, 11:36 AM)
6.41% is good. Price today is 1.82.

Anyone else considring FCT?
*
Me...smile.gif
Thinking to top up after 16Dec...
TSHansel
post Dec 13 2015, 10:05 PM

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Hi,...yeah, am watching FCT closely,... coming week is finally the week for the US rate hike,... the time has finally come. Buy if there is any knee-jerk reactions from the rate hike on the coming Thursday morning.

For me,...I am also watching closely Keppel Corp, OCBC Bank and the Mandarin Oriental Hotel (price quoted in the USD, dividend given out in the USD).
AVFAN
post Dec 13 2015, 11:41 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 13 2015, 10:05 PM)
Hi,...yeah, am watching FCT closely,... coming week is finally the week for the US rate hike,... the time has finally come. Buy if there is any knee-jerk reactions from the rate hike on the coming Thursday morning.
*
i am expecting increased volatility mon-fri.

every small bit of news will send jitters everywhere.

continuous falling crude prices is driving us stocks last few days which in turn will drive other bourses.

fed news on thu morning will add fuel to the crude saga, ring loud until fri closing.

not sure if it is a good time to buy or sell anything but will be something colorful to witness, i think. biggrin.gif
djhenry91
post Dec 14 2015, 08:28 AM

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Monday booring again...
Selangor suddenly declare holiday pulak
TSHansel
post Dec 14 2015, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Dec 14 2015, 08:28 AM)
Monday booring again...
Selangor suddenly declare holiday pulak
*
Well,...Sgp is a work-day today. So, it should be normal for us, whether we are in Penang or in Selangor.

First REIT called for an EGM to talk about the 'SHS hospital and plot exchange' arrangement ! This will be a good time for unitholders to query about the 'shifting' of First REIT to Jakarta.... for unitholders who are still holding,...
Vector88
post Dec 14 2015, 04:50 PM

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First day of the week, blood everywhere... FCT closer to 1.80 now
TSHansel
post Dec 14 2015, 05:54 PM

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Yes, steady, steady,... hold your fire,....
Vector88
post Dec 14 2015, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 14 2015, 05:54 PM)
Yes, steady, steady,... hold your fire,....
*
Positive thing is SGD is at 3.07 against MYR today smile.gif
yck1987
post Dec 14 2015, 07:23 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 14 2015, 05:54 PM)
Yes, steady, steady,... hold your fire,....
*
I sked miss the boat , so I fired slowly.
elea88
post Dec 15 2015, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Dec 14 2015, 04:50 PM)
First day of the week, blood everywhere... FCT closer to 1.80 now
*
all waiting 16.. means will not be super RED... already absorbed in
AVFAN
post Dec 15 2015, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Dec 14 2015, 07:23 PM)
I sked miss the boat , so I fired slowly.
*
this thinking has some merit.

i actually want to buy now but what i want is NOT getting cheaper!! laugh.gif

even at 10% chance, fed may NOT raise rates after all or raise by smallest amount with very dovish comments. that will send equity and commodity prices higher.
TSHansel
post Dec 15 2015, 07:31 PM

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First Day of Fed Mtg starting tonight,.... watch the news closely,.....
elea88
post Dec 16 2015, 09:06 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 15 2015, 07:31 PM)
First Day of Fed Mtg starting tonight,.... watch the news closely,.....
*
so, when can start shopping? Today seems green..
TSHansel
post Dec 16 2015, 01:22 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Dec 16 2015, 09:06 AM)
so, when can start shopping? Today seems green..
*
Today is not a good day. If a knee-kerk reaction happens tomorrow, then that would be time to enter partially. Otherwise, we will wait for a bad news to come on any day immediately after the rate hike, which is sure to come, then we enter further.
TSHansel
post Dec 17 2015, 03:25 AM

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The Fed increased interest rate by 0.25 basis points. BUT,........the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq don't seem to be heading for the red ??????? vmad.gif
TSHansel
post Dec 17 2015, 03:29 AM

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Ms Yellen's press statement starts in 1 minute ! Let's see how fast she 'intends' to raise the interest rate !
TSHansel
post Dec 17 2015, 04:03 AM

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Ms Yellen said that although the inflation rate has not reached 2% yet, but she and her committee has confidence that the US economy will achieve that in the short term. Nevertheless, further rate rises will still be data-dependant.
TSHansel
post Dec 17 2015, 04:07 AM

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In short, the committee agrees and sees that the US economy WILL IMPROVE. With this, the 3 main indices are rising as we speak.
TSHansel
post Dec 17 2015, 04:09 AM

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The USD keeps weakening against the SGD and the MYR.

The MYR has somewhat strengthened against the SGD.
yck1987
post Dec 17 2015, 07:41 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 17 2015, 03:25 AM)
The Fed increased interest rate by 0.25 basis points. BUT,........the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq don't seem to be heading for the red ???????  vmad.gif
*
Good morning hansel, what's your take now? It's time to buy or hold our warchest and wait again? I already hoot banking stocks earlier on leh DBS & ocbc. rclxm9.gif let's see open market reaction.
TSHansel
post Dec 17 2015, 07:52 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Dec 17 2015, 07:41 AM)
Good morning hansel, what's your take now? It's time to buy or hold our warchest and wait again? I already hoot banking stocks earlier on leh DBS & ocbc.  rclxm9.gif  let's see open market reaction.
*
That's right - let's see how the mkt opens. The three main indices closed strongly, up,... early this morning. But I saw too that the futures are red now,...
TSHansel
post Dec 17 2015, 09:10 AM

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The STI opens green with +0.15%,.... The Nikkei has been green for the last hour, though hovering near neutral,...

MYR strengthened vs the SGD and the USD. The USD weakened vs the SGD,....

....
TSHansel
post Dec 17 2015, 11:42 AM

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ALL GREEN after all Asian markets opened for trading. The only reds I can see for now are the three main index futures. If the three main index futures stay red for the rest of the day till tonight when US markets start, then perhaps US mkts will plunge tonight, and infect Asian mkts into plunging tmrw.

Nothing much cab be done for the rest of the day today.

Steady,......
prophetjul
post Dec 19 2015, 10:11 AM

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DJ down more than 360 pts.....put on yer seat belts! laugh.gif
TSHansel
post Dec 21 2015, 10:01 AM

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All red on my panel today for the counters that I am monitoring. Steady,....
TSHansel
post Dec 21 2015, 10:58 AM

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As two high-yield bond funds run into problems, other high-yild funds will also be affected... hopefully. smile.gif smile.gif

Investors and the mkt will have a very high chance of mis-pricing these instruments. Watch for the bottom of the near-bottom,....this is the time to buy,....
AVFAN
post Dec 22 2015, 10:49 AM

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bad news for sgx...

QUOTE
Singapore Stock Losses Set to Rival Greece in 2015

December 22, 2015 — 7:57 AM MYT

Banks, commodity companies at risk from slowing China growth
Straits Times Index's drop is almost triple the rest of Asia

Singapore’s stocks are set for a 15 percent tumble this year, putting them in the same league as Greece. Baring Asset Management Ltd. and UBS Group AG say shares need to get even cheaper before they’re prepared to buy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...es-little-value

prophetjul
post Dec 22 2015, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 10:49 AM)
bad news for sgx...
*
Good news for cash rich pipu! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 22 2015, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 11:07 AM)
Good news for cash rich pipu!  biggrin.gif
*
problem is like oil, no idea when it will bottom.

with commodities and china expected to be slow and low for some time, it gets jittery.

profits falling, rates rising, bad debts rising... and we haven't seen any major collapse anywhere yet.

best to stick to low risk ventures at this time. biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 22 2015, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 11:21 AM)
problem is like oil, no idea when it will bottom.

with commodities and china expected to be slow and low for some time, it gets jittery.

profits falling, rates rising, bad debts rising... and we haven't seen any major collapse anywhere yet.

best to stick to low risk ventures at this time. biggrin.gif
*
Yeah...i rather the V shape type of deceleration and recovery than the long winded ones! biggrin.gif
The long winded ones last for years on end for recovery especially if it hits the Deflationary mode which it seems we are in now.........in contrast to the 2008/09 recession.

What low risk ventures? drool.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 22 2015, 11:43 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 11:30 AM)
What low risk ventures?  drool.gif
*
good issue to discuss at this time!

instinctively, i think of avoiding, anywhere:

1. oil & gas equities
2. high yield dividend stocks
3. anything commodity based

that leaves me with a balanced act of fixed income and reits. laugh.gif

i looked at the past year how my ventures in local, sg and us markets went.

it is clear regular stocks and etf's anywhere lost capital. only reits, fd and fx gains provided cushion.

that was 2015. i see no difference for 2016.
prophetjul
post Dec 22 2015, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 11:43 AM)
good issue to discuss at this time!

instinctively, i think of avoiding, anywhere:

1. oil & gas equities
2. high yield dividend stocks
3. anything commodity based

that leaves me with a balanced act of fixed income and reits. laugh.gif

i looked at the past year how my ventures in local, sg and us markets went.

it is clear regular stocks and etf's anywhere lost capital. only reits, fd and fx gains provided cushion.

that was 2015. i see no difference for 2016.
*
Why No. 2?

i have some stocks which are cash rich and churning cash to sustain high dividends. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 22 2015, 12:59 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 11:53 AM)
Why No. 2?

i have some stocks which are cash rich and churning cash to sustain high dividends.  biggrin.gif
*
ok if they can manage debt levels yet keep profits high to maintain high yields.

i just don't think they can for long in current and coming conditions.

just my general thoughts, not referring to anything particular. biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 22 2015, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 12:59 PM)
ok if they can manage debt levels yet keep profits high to maintain high yields.

i just don't think they can for long in current and coming conditions.

just my general thoughts, not referring to anything particular. biggrin.gif
*
There are some gems out there with a hoard of cash and free cashflow and with great dividends policy!
TSHansel
post Dec 22 2015, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 11:43 AM)
good issue to discuss at this time!

instinctively, i think of avoiding, anywhere:

1. oil & gas equities
2. high yield dividend stocks
3. anything commodity based

that leaves me with a balanced act of fixed income and reits. laugh.gif

i looked at the past year how my ventures in local, sg and us markets went.

it is clear regular stocks and etf's anywhere lost capital. only reits, fd and fx gains provided cushion.

that was 2015. i see no difference for 2016.
*
For myself, 2015 has seen continued returns in REITs, high-yield stocks, and high-yield bond funds. Forex too.

Based on the earlier report that you showed, somehow, I am just not confident that the SGX will really plunge as much as what happened to the Athens exchange. There are reports now going around now that the SGD will weaken till about 1.4416 against the USD (Channel News Asia today),... I have been waiting for such events - they NEVER come.

I observed that Keppel Corp has not dropped in tandem with the drop in oil price the last week or so. IN fact, BN4 has appreciated in price from a two-year low of 6.22 to 6.40 now,....
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post Dec 22 2015, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 01:45 PM)
There are some gems out there with a hoard of cash and free cashflow and with great dividends policy!
*
Yeah,... a repeat of 2008/9,... when I bought my current holdings, which, till today's crisis, has remained in the green resiliently,...
prophetjul
post Dec 22 2015, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2015, 02:47 PM)
Yeah,... a repeat of 2008/9,... when I bought my current holdings, which, till today's crisis, has remained in the green resiliently,...
*
Yeah........that was the time to pick high yield stocks. 12% and above yields! Incredible!
Will we see those days again? biggrin.gif

i still have this one which has cash hoard of MYR8 per share. Enough for 10 years of dividends just from this hoard and cashflow positive every year!

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Dec 22 2015, 02:50 PM
TSHansel
post Dec 22 2015, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 02:48 PM)
Yeah........that was the time to pick high yield stocks. 12% and above yields!  Incredible!
Will we see those days again?  biggrin.gif

i still have this one which has cash hoard of MYR8 per share. Enough for 10 years of dividends just from this hoard and cashflow positive every year!
*
hmm.gif somehow, I carry the feeling that the market has learnt not to mis-price itself too much. Long-term investors will hold the investments tightly to their chest, and many will average down too if the price falls (if they have bullets-lar,...), hence, supporting the price.

TRue long term investors have learnt from the 2008/9 experience.
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post Dec 22 2015, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 01:45 PM)
There are some gems out there with a hoard of cash and free cashflow and with great dividends policy!
*
hey, share their names here la...!

no point discussing and share nothing. tongue.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 22 2015, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2015, 02:56 PM)
hmm.gif somehow, I carry the feeling that the market has learnt not to mis-price itself too much. Long-term investors will hold the investments tightly to their chest, and many will average down too if the price falls (if they have bullets-lar,...), hence, supporting the price.

TRue long term investors have learnt from the 2008/9 experience.
*
The market never learns. This is what i learn from investing over the last 30 years.

Fear most invariably takes over even the most seasoned investors unless you are WB. There are many traders in the market whose philosophy is probably conservation of principal. On op of that the margin calls kicks in at the worst times
Bear in mind, investors can demand withdrawals from funds which may trigger the avalanche.
And at the tops of markets, you can be certain that funds are more than likely to be over invested with low cash positions.

i happen to be lucky that i was out of the market in 1998 since 1990. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Dec 22 2015, 03:06 PM
Vector88
post Dec 22 2015, 03:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 03:04 PM)
hey, share their names here la...!

no point discussing and share nothing. tongue.gif
*
Ya, pls share the rock solid dividen stocks name here... Thinking to add more in 2016...

prophetjul
post Dec 22 2015, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 03:04 PM)
hey, share their names here la...!

no point discussing and share nothing. tongue.gif
*
Ohh...i missed this post. laugh.gif

The stock i alluded to was Panamy. It seems the market has always overlooked it.
Cash per share last i looked was approx Rm9.
i have been receiving dividends since i bought in 2009 at MYR9.70. Dividends have paid for my purchase. biggrin.gif
Of course the yield is lower now. But 6% is not too shabby seeing that it's sustainable.

yck1987
post Dec 22 2015, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2015, 02:46 PM)
For myself, 2015 has seen continued returns in REITs, high-yield stocks, and high-yield bond funds. Forex too.

Based on the earlier report that you showed, somehow, I am just not confident that the SGX will really plunge as much as what happened to the Athens exchange. There are reports now going around now that the SGD will weaken till about 1.4416 against the USD (Channel News Asia today),... I have been waiting for such events - they NEVER come.

I observed that Keppel Corp has not dropped in tandem with the drop in oil price the last week or so. IN fact, BN4 has appreciated in price from a two-year low of 6.22 to 6.40 now,....
*
What's your average price of Kep Corp? Mine was at 6.68, still in red now. nod.gif I will keep buying at this blue chips counter if prices continue to fall and collect dividend looking at the current yield at 7% abv. biggrin.gif
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post Dec 22 2015, 05:52 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 03:44 PM)
Ohh...i missed this post.    laugh.gif

The stock i alluded to was Panamy. It seems the market has always overlooked it.
Cash per share last i looked was approx Rm9.
i have been receiving dividends since i bought in 2009 at MYR9.70. Dividends have paid for my purchase.  biggrin.gif
Of course the yield is lower now. But 6% is not too shabby seeing that it's sustainable.
*
panamy as in panasonic msia?

if bought long time ago with >10% dividend then, that's good.

but if bought 2 yrs ago, rm lost 25%...?

6% yield now... what if rm declines further...?

QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2015, 02:46 PM)
There are reports now going around now that the SGD will weaken till about 1.4416 against the USD (Channel News Asia today),... I have been waiting for such events - they NEVER come.
*
i had always thought it will be 1.40-1.45, so that's ok. tongue.gif

all the latest news i get point to 2016 as much the same like 2015 but more of the same - commodities will either stay low or sink further. equities will be muted, volatile, bankruptcies to increase. won't be pretty.

not a time to be bullish, a time to conserve and preserve. and hold yr usd close to yr chest. laugh.gif
TSHansel
post Dec 22 2015, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 22 2015, 03:05 PM)
The market never learns. This is what i learn from investing over the last 30 years.

Fear most invariably takes over even the most seasoned investors unless you are WB. There are many traders in the market whose philosophy is probably conservation of principal. On op of that the margin calls kicks in at the worst times
Bear in mind, investors can demand withdrawals from funds which may trigger the avalanche.
And at the tops of markets, you can be certain that funds are more than likely to be over invested with low cash positions.

i happen to be lucky  that i was out of the market in 1998 since 1990.  biggrin.gif
*
Well, if it is, as you said, the mkt never learns, I can see one effect here right n front of my eyes that deviates from what you said, my friend,.. Oil price has dropped so much since the beginnning of the year, commodity prices have dropped so much, Feds has begun to hike,.... but, hey,... the mkt hasn't dropped back to what I saw back in 2008/9,... why is that ?

I just find it very, very hard to catch the right price this time round,... unlike back in 2008/9,... why is that ?
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post Dec 22 2015, 06:21 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Dec 22 2015, 04:24 PM)
What's your average price of Kep Corp? Mine was at 6.68, still in red now. nod.gif I will keep buying at this blue chips counter if prices continue to fall and collect dividend looking at the current yield at 7% abv.  biggrin.gif
*
Not good, I'm afraid, I bought Kep Corp when oil price was around USD40/bbl,... my average price is at a hight pf $7.28. But fortunately, I did not pour everything into it,... so, I'm just waiting to average down now.

I wondered if Kep Corp hs bottomed out for an oil price floor of USD30/bbl. Why do I say this,.. ? ...becos these few days, when the price of oil dipped further to USD34/bbl, Kep Corp stayed its position, and then slowly appreciated,...
TSHansel
post Dec 22 2015, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 05:52 PM)
panamy as in panasonic msia?

if bought long time ago with >10% dividend then, that's good.

but if bought 2 yrs ago, rm lost 25%...?

6% yield now... what if rm declines further...?
i had always thought it will be 1.40-1.45, so that's ok. tongue.gif

all the latest news i get point to 2016 as much the same like 2015 but more of the same - commodities will either stay low or sink further. equities will be muted, volatile, bankruptcies to increase. won't be pretty.

not a time to be bullish, a time to conserve and preserve. and hold yr usd close to yr chest. laugh.gif
*
Well,...AV,..I think it would be general knowledge that anybody who holds Msian assets in the MYR would suffer in terms of purchasing power, unless the investor made a very big margin from that instrument.

Let's take USD40K :-

a) if the exchange rate is at 1.40, USD40K will bring you SGD56000.

b) if the exchange rate is at 1.44, USD40K will bring you SGD57600.

That's a difference of SGD1600, or MYR4800,...why do you say that you can accept that range without problems ? I would tend to start noticing the difference when the exchange rate starts moving between 1.40 and 1.42...

Hmm,...holding the USD close to my chest, that's what I've been doing,...sadly sad.gif , have not found any worthy instruments to buy till now. And holding USD cash is NOT really productive.

Edited by adding : have been watching the Mandarin Oriental Hotel closely, becos this counter is denominated in the USD, and it has a very, very consistent dividend payout. Anybody knows about this counter ?

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 22 2015, 06:39 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 22 2015, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2015, 06:34 PM)
That's a difference of SGD1600, or MYR4800,...why do you say that you can accept that range without problems ? I would tend to start noticing the difference when the exchange rate starts moving between 1.40 and 1.42...

Hmm,...holding the USD close to my chest, that's what I've been doing,...sadly sad.gif , have not found any worthy instruments to buy till now. And holding USD cash is NOT really productive.
*
sg needs to balance rm and rmb (msia, china largest trading partners) against the usd.

in 1 yr, rmb went 6.2->6.5, rm 3.5->4.3, sg cannot afford not to keep the sgd in check.

sgd/usd movement within 2-3% range is reasonable, can't expect it to be tighter.

the commodities rout is not over, so rm and rmb may move south again. if china growth goes further down, devalues rmb again, sgd will follow suit.
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post Dec 23 2015, 07:03 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 11:01 PM)
sg needs to balance rm and rmb (msia, china largest trading partners) against the usd.

in 1 yr, rmb went 6.2->6.5, rm 3.5->4.3, sg cannot afford not to keep the sgd in check.

sgd/usd movement within 2-3% range is reasonable, can't expect it to be tighter.

the commodities rout is not over, so rm and rmb may move south again. if china growth goes further down, devalues rmb again, sgd will follow suit.
*
Good morning, AV,..I opine that the SGD has a silent peg to the USD. It wouldnot want to follow the USD too hard with the rate hikes on the cards, but I think if the RMB should fall too low, the SGD certainly wouldn't want to cap itself too much, just to 'please' the RMB. After all, Simgapore does not really depend too much on exports anymore,hence wouldn't need to get into a price war with China.

Against the RM,.. I think the Sgp Gov't has an even lower wish to affiliate itself with. Look at the way the SGD appreciated against the RM this year when the USD hammered the RM,..

Judging from the news these few days and after the US has put in the certainty of a rate hike, I really don't know if the RMB and the RM will drop to previous lows in the near to medium term. Commodity rout/oversupply is still there, but the commodity currencies may have 'decoupled' from the prices of commodities.

Some O&G-focussed counters have started to decouple too.

A good eg to look at is the behaviour of Keppel Corp in the last few days. Oip price dropped the last few days but Kep Corp's price stayed.
prophetjul
post Dec 23 2015, 08:44 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 05:52 PM)
panamy as in panasonic msia?

if bought long time ago with >10% dividend then, that's good.

but if bought 2 yrs ago, rm lost 25%...?

6% yield now... what if rm declines further...?
Yes.
If Rm goes down, i would think it's exports would perform better?
Fact, i bought into export companies last 6 months and they have been outperforming like crazy, eg the elctronics, furniture sectors

Well, 6% is still better than FD rates.
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post Dec 23 2015, 08:49 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 22 2015, 06:16 PM)
Well, if it is, as you said, the mkt never learns, I can see one effect here right n front of my eyes that deviates from what you said, my friend,.. Oil price has dropped so much since the beginnning of the year, commodity prices have dropped so much, Feds has begun to hike,.... but, hey,... the mkt hasn't dropped back to what I saw back in 2008/9,... why is that ?

I just find it very, very hard to catch the right price this time round,... unlike back in 2008/9,... why is that ?
*
The reason being in 08/09, there was a sudden crisis in Lehman.
As i wrote here?, that this time they are controlling the market by the QEs, where they are pumping it directly into the markets. Therefore we may see at worse, a deflation of all things. That's what the Feds are scared of. They can get their inflation up and companies are not showing good numbers. A tell tale sign.

If ISIS blows up the white house, my scenario will happen. A sell will be on. Right now, it's a slow grind. Of course, now you have the China factor as well, which was absent in 09.
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post Dec 23 2015, 09:24 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 23 2015, 07:03 AM)
Good morning, AV,..I opine that the SGD has a silent peg to the USD. It wouldnot want to follow the USD too hard with the rate hikes on the cards, but I think if the RMB should fall too low, the SGD certainly wouldn't want to cap itself too much, just to 'please' the RMB. After all, Simgapore does not really depend too much on exports anymore,hence wouldn't need to get into a price war with China.

Against the RM,.. I think the Sgp Gov't has an even lower wish to affiliate itself with. Look at the way the SGD appreciated against the RM this year when the USD hammered the RM,..

Judging from the news these few days and after the US has put in the certainty of a rate hike, I really don't know if the RMB and the RM will drop to previous lows in the near to medium term. Commodity rout/oversupply is still there, but the commodity currencies may have 'decoupled' from the prices of commodities.

Some O&G-focussed counters have started to decouple too.

A good eg to look at is the behaviour of Keppel Corp in the last few days. Oip price dropped the last few days but Kep Corp's price stayed.
*
i think Keppel is not wholely O n G dependant. Their shipyards service many other vessels as well.
They still have a big section of property, investments in communications, etc

Maybe that's why the effects of O n G are almost fully reflected in their price by now.
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post Dec 23 2015, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE
HSBC has projected the yuan to be devalued further to around 6.7 to the US dollar by the end of 2016.
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...sure/?style=biz


against usd... if rmb goes to 6.7, sgd will likely go to >1.45.

prophetjul
post Dec 23 2015, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 23 2015, 10:22 AM)
against usd... if rmb goes to 6.7, sgd will likely go to >1.45.
*
Question for us is : Where will MYR go in tandem to China's deceleration and oil fall?
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post Dec 23 2015, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 23 2015, 09:24 AM)
i think Keppel is not wholely O n G dependant. Their shipyards service many other vessels as well.
They still have a big section of property, investments in communications, etc

Maybe that's why the effects of O n G are almost fully reflected in their price by now.
*
Yeah,...what you said could be possible,...the market is now beginning to view Kep Corp's other business sectors now. When oil price started to fall, Kep Corp's price moved in tandem with oil price.
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post Dec 23 2015, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 23 2015, 10:22 AM)
against usd... if rmb goes to 6.7, sgd will likely go to >1.45.
*
Haa,..if 1USD can buy >1.45SGD, I'll be the first to rejoice. My bond coupons will be worth more in the SGD, and subsequently, if I should exchange any of the SGD coupons back into the MYR, it will be worth even more.
TSHansel
post Jan 5 2016, 12:13 PM

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There was a gap down yesterday in the SGX, round about in the afternoon when China activated the circuit breaker after the stocks fell by 7%. Almost all REITs and stocks dropped by around 2%.

As of this morning, everything went back up again,.... is the mkt starting to look resilient ? Decoupling from China too ?
Vector88
post Jan 5 2016, 01:18 PM

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Has anyone look into Sembcorp? Yielding ard 5% and its price is almost @ 5year low...
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post Jan 5 2016, 02:14 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Jan 5 2016, 01:18 PM)
Has anyone look into Sembcorp? Yielding ard 5% and its price is almost @ 5year low...
*
nod.gif

I'm starting to study Sembcorp MARINE, at current very low price, the yield is around 7%....It's a multi-year low price. But I'm still not able to tell if this counter is still coupled to oil price.

Sembcorp Industrials is not in my radar yet.
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post Jan 5 2016, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 5 2016, 02:14 PM)
nod.gif

I'm starting to study Sembcorp MARINE, at current very low price, the yield is around 7%....It's a multi-year low price. But I'm still not able to tell if this counter is still coupled to oil price.

Sembcorp Industrials is not in my radar yet.
*
It's got a drill rig order terminated by Marco Polo marine for failing to meet contract obligations.
Legal suits probably will follow.
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post Jan 5 2016, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 5 2016, 02:41 PM)
It's got a drill rig order terminated by Marco Polo marine for failing to meet contract obligations.
Legal suits probably will follow.
*
Thanks for the heads-up, prophetjul,... I'll look this up.
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post Jan 6 2016, 02:04 PM

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I think I could have found out the cause for the plunge of Keppel Cop today. Do you guys believe the following write-up ?

Macquarie Research issued a short report on KC, SCI and SMM today, leading all 3 to sell down.............

Since the Keppel Land privatization last year, KEP is being perceived as a conglomerate, in our view, hence trading at premium to pure O&M play SMM. However, O&M is still KEP’s principal driver, accounting for ~50% of its profits from 2015-17E. On the other hand, the property business, which will make up ~40% of KEP’s profits and ~70% of its BV (2015-17E), is a low-ROE business, in our view. Given declining returns in O&M and shift in revenue mix towards the low-ROE property business, we think KEP’s group ROEs and ROICs are in a structural decline. Even if we assume no cancellations / delays in its O&M order book, we estimate group ROE will fall to 7% by 2019E (from 21% in 2012) and group to ~4% by 2019E (from 12% in 2012). In this scenario, we find it difficult to justify valuing KEP at no discount to BV. After valuing each of KEP’s businesses separately, we derive a valuation of 10% discount to BV, which gives us a TP of S$5.30. We thus downgrade KEP from Outperform to Underperform with 17% stock price downside. While our profit estimates are now ~20% below street for 2016-17E, we see further downside risk if KEP’s O&M orders start getting cancelled. In that scenario, the discount to BV could widen to Korean yard levels (0.3-0.6x). Impact Key risks to the ‘defensive’ perception: Key risk #1: Even if rig orders come back in 2018, KEP will not be at the front of the row: We believe global rig orders will dry up to zero from 2015-17E, and especially jack-ups—a segment that KEP dominates—may have entered a prolonged down cycle due to heavy oversupply. Key risk #2: Current order book is not insulated from cancellations: KEP’s ~S$9bn order book at the end of 2015E has ~70% cancellation / delay risk, in our view (please see detailed analysis on pages 9-11). Key risk #3: High expectations from the property business: Given lumpiness of the business, we are building a long-term model by which we are incorporating robust property profits going to S$552m in 2017E from S$382m in 2014, which could have downside risk. Key risk #4: Dividends fall as balance-sheet pressure builds up: Net debt / equity has increased from 11.2% as at end- 2014 to 59% in 2015E and could get worse if O&M orders get cancelled, hence posing risk to dividend payouts. Earnings and target price revision We reduce our profit estimates for 2016 by 35% and for 2017 by 30%. We are reducing our TP to S$5.30 from S$10.85 earlier. Price catalyst 12-month price target: S$5.30 based on a Price to Book methodology. Catalyst: Order cancellations / delays Action and recommendation 0.9x P/B fair in current circumstances; could move to 0.3-0.6x P/B if orders get cancelled: With a structural decline in returns and more downside risk, the way we value KEP as a conglomerate has to change, in our view.

TP = $5.30 ?????????


AVFAN
post Jan 6 2016, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 23 2015, 07:03 AM)
Good morning, AV,..I opine that the SGD has a silent peg to the USD. It wouldnot want to follow the USD too hard with the rate hikes on the cards, but I think if the RMB should fall too low, the SGD certainly wouldn't want to cap itself too much, just to 'please' the RMB. After all, Simgapore does not really depend too much on exports anymore,hence wouldn't need to get into a price war with China.

Against the RM,.. I think the Sgp Gov't has an even lower wish to affiliate itself with. Look at the way the SGD appreciated against the RM this year when the USD hammered the RM,..

Judging from the news these few days and after the US has put in the certainty of a rate hike, I really don't know if the RMB and the RM will drop to previous lows in the near to medium term. Commodity rout/oversupply is still there, but the commodity currencies may have 'decoupled' from the prices of commodities.

Some O&G-focussed counters have started to decouple too.

A good eg to look at is the behaviour of Keppel Corp in the last few days. Oip price dropped the last few days but Kep Corp's price stayed.
*
hansel, if u missed any of these...

crude <36.
china continued poor data reports.
north korea hydrogen bomb test.

result:

usd/rmb 6.555
usd/sgd 1.434
usd/rm 4.391

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 6 2016, 03:01 PM
prophetjul
post Jan 6 2016, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 6 2016, 03:01 PM)
hansel, if u missed any of these...

crude <36.
china continued poor data reports.
north korea hydrogen bomb test.

result:

usd/rmb 6.555
usd/sgd 1.434
usd/rm 4.391
*
i think we will see global recession kicking in around 3rd qtr.
TSHansel
post Jan 6 2016, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 6 2016, 03:01 PM)
hansel, if u missed any of these...

crude <36.
china continued poor data reports.
north korea hydrogen bomb test.

result:

usd/rmb 6.555
usd/sgd 1.434
usd/rm 4.391
*
Thank you, AV,...

I have been watching the USD/SGD, and yes, it is quite an depreciation of the SGD vs the USD compared to one month earlier. As for the USD vs the RM, I think it is still 'ard that level'...

I think the USD managed to clawed its way up a bit today because of the so-called earthquake detected by the USGS near the N.Korea nuclear facility. Ignorance towards China's poor data reports is building,... I think,....
TSHansel
post Jan 6 2016, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 6 2016, 03:26 PM)
i think we will see global recession kicking in around 3rd qtr.
*
Prophet,...things are so hard to tell now,...today's drop could be a knee-jerk reaction from that suspected nuclear test in NK.

I am so tempted to load-up more of Keppel Corp, but still carrying much hesitation.

There is a new point being put out by net residents. Is oil and commodities getting phased out by the world ? Will green energy replace fossil fuel ? If it is going to be so,... there will really be a big shakeup. Oil price will never recover to their glory days again, and oil-related counters will follow suit.

I recalled one experience that I had back in 2008/9. I bought many of my counters back then, and had huge capital gains, and kept them throughout the years till today. Have reaped lots of dividends too. But I made a wrong call on one counter that never got back to its heydays, namely Singapore Airlines.

After the global financial crisis, everybody started taking AirAsia, and SIA could not reach the glory that it used to command before the GFC.

I wonder if the same thing is going to happen to oil price, hence, causing Keppel Corp not to return to its glorydays anymore ?
Vector88
post Jan 6 2016, 08:43 PM

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Not a good day for Keppel, downgrade with TP: 5.80 by Barclays

SINGAPORE (Jan 6): Barclays has lowered its recommendation as well as target price for rig builders SembCorp Marine and Keppel Corp as it forecast new rig orders drying up in 2016 to 2017 and risks to existing orders.

In a research report, Barclays gave SembCorp Marine an "Underweight" rating and slashed its target price by 52% to $1.10. It downgraded Keppel Corp to "Equal Weight" and dropped its target price by 33% to $5.80.

This post has been edited by Vector88: Jan 6 2016, 08:44 PM
elea88
post Jan 6 2016, 09:30 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Jan 6 2016, 08:43 PM)
Not a good day for Keppel, downgrade with TP: 5.80 by Barclays

SINGAPORE (Jan 6): Barclays has lowered its recommendation as well as target price for rig builders SembCorp Marine and Keppel Corp as it forecast new rig orders drying up in 2016 to 2017 and risks to existing orders.

In a research report, Barclays gave SembCorp Marine an "Underweight" rating and slashed its target price by 52% to $1.10. It downgraded Keppel Corp to "Equal Weight" and dropped its target price by 33% to $5.80.
*
aiyoyo...
elea88
post Jan 6 2016, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 6 2016, 04:17 PM)
Prophet,...things are so hard to tell now,...today's drop could be a knee-jerk reaction from that suspected nuclear test in NK.

I am so tempted to load-up more of Keppel Corp, but still carrying much hesitation.

There is a new point being put out by net residents. Is oil and commodities getting phased out by the world ? Will green energy replace fossil fuel ? If it is going to be so,... there will really be a big shakeup. Oil price will never recover to their glory days again, and oil-related counters will follow suit.

I recalled one experience that I had back in 2008/9. I bought many of my counters back then, and had huge capital gains, and kept them throughout the years till today. Have reaped lots of dividends too. But I made a wrong call on one counter that never got back to its heydays, namely Singapore Airlines.

After the global financial crisis, everybody started taking AirAsia, and SIA could not reach the glory that it used to command before the GFC.

I wonder if the same thing is going to happen to oil price, hence, causing Keppel Corp not to return to its glorydays anymore ?
*
Hansel, i dun think KEPPEL CORP can return to its glory days unless we see a sharp rebound in oil price...
and future, we are seing ELECTRONIC & SOLAR energy powered vehicles.. hence a slow down in being reliant on O&G.
Even simple task like using OIL FOR FRYING (palm oil not crude oil).. IS BEING replaced by AIR FRYERS..
AVFAN
post Jan 6 2016, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 6 2016, 09:37 PM)
i dun think KEPPEL CORP can return to its glory days unless we see a sharp rebound in oil price...
and future, we are seing ELECTRONIC & SOLAR energy powered vehicles.. hence a slow down in being reliant on O&G.
Even simple task like using OIL FOR FRYING (palm oil not crude oil).. IS BEING replaced by AIR FRYERS..
*
i don't mean to be cruel...

but i don't see crude price going above usd40 for next 2 (TWO) years. tongue.gif
Vector88
post Jan 7 2016, 10:15 AM

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Blood all over today.

Stocks in my radar:
Keppel almost 6, singtel 3.5, sembcorp 2.8 , singpost 1.5, st eng 2.8x

This post has been edited by Vector88: Jan 7 2016, 10:17 AM
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Jan 7 2016, 10:15 AM)
Blood all over today.

Stocks in my radar:
Keppel almost 6, singtel 3.5, sembcorp 2.8 , singpost 1.5, st eng 2.8x
*
ya, nothing is spared...

only consolation is sgd/rm = 3.08.
elea88
post Jan 7 2016, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 10:24 AM)
ya, nothing is spared...

only consolation is sgd/rm = 3.08.
*
what u shopping today?
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 7 2016, 10:36 AM)
what u shopping today?
*
no... i will wait...

will consider adding to keppel dc and capitamall if price goes below my last acquisition prices.
TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 11:10 AM

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Hi Elea, AV, Vector and friends,...

Market is crashing,...sentiments are low,... sequence of events :-

1) yesterday morning : Chine pulled the plug on the circuit-breaker, devalued the RMB.
2) last night : All 4 indices in the US closed in the red.
3) this morning: China pulled the plug again on their bourse.

BUT : Tomorrow night : if my memory serves me correctly, it's Friday again, and another Jobs Report again. Will this Jobs Report recover the mkts ?

Almost all counters are falling,........but, for now......I noticed one counter seems to be gaining,...Keppel DC REIT.

Steady,...I'm not loading-up yet,...
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 11:42 AM

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year of the fire monkey!

user posted image
TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 01:53 PM

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To further diversify your holdings, you can consider holding an SG Bank counter. SG banks are world-class in terms of reserve ratios, hence, very stable and safe.

The SG bank that I am looking at currently is OCBC Bank. It is the cheapest in terms of valuation, and has the highest yield at current pricing. Its DPU grows year-by-year for most of the years.

Take a look,....
yck1987
post Jan 7 2016, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 7 2016, 01:53 PM)
To further diversify your holdings, you can consider holding an SG Bank counter. SG banks are world-class in terms of reserve ratios, hence, very stable and safe.

The SG bank that I am looking at currently is OCBC Bank. It is the cheapest in terms of valuation, and has the highest yield at current pricing. Its DPU grows year-by-year for most of the years.

Take a look,....
*
I'm vested and still confident with OCBC, current avg price at 8.74 yield around 4.1x%. smile.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 22 2015, 11:01 PM)
sg needs to balance rm and rmb (msia, china largest trading partners) against the usd.

in 1 yr, rmb went 6.2->6.5, rm 3.5->4.3, sg cannot afford not to keep the sgd in check.

sgd/usd movement within 2-3% range is reasonable, can't expect it to be tighter.

the commodities rout is not over, so rm and rmb may move south again. if china growth goes further down, devalues rmb again, sgd will follow suit.
*
here we go:

QUOTE
Singapore Dollar's Slide Approaching Band Limit, Barclays Says

January 7, 2016 — 12:18 PM MYT

Currency fell to six-year low as China cut yuan reference rate

Singapore’s dollar slid to a six-year low after China’s central bank reduced its reference rate for the yuan by the most since August. Barclays Plc said further declines are set to slow as the island-state’s currency is probably close to the bottom of the central bank’s policy band.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...t-barclays-says

TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 03:04 PM)
here we go:

Singapore Dollar's Slide Approaching Band Limit, Barclays Says

January 7, 2016 — 12:18 PM MYT

Currency fell to six-year low as China cut yuan reference rate

Singapore’s dollar slid to a six-year low after China’s central bank reduced its reference rate for the yuan by the most since August. Barclays Plc said further declines are set to slow as the island-state’s currency is probably close to the bottom of the central bank’s policy band.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...t-barclays-says

*
Yes, AV,.. we are consistent in our opinion here. I recalled that I mentioned yesterday in one of the other threads that the SGD will soon weaken further with China devaluing the RMB. So, it has happened. The effect is seen immediately.

Commenting on the above para, I don't think Barclays knows what the policy band looks like. So, they can't really comment for sure that the SGD has reached the bottom. But the last sentence did use the word : probably. smile.gif


TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 03:40 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 7 2016, 02:18 PM)
I'm vested and still confident with OCBC, current avg price at 8.74 yield around 4.1x%.  smile.gif
*
thumbup.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 03:44 PM

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Market is still continuing to plunge. Keppel Corp stands as one of the 15 stocks that has plunged the most for today. Lowest today till now : $5.90.

Steady,...hold your horses, this plunge is no more a knee-jerk reaction, since it has broken the psychological $6.00 support level. Do not buy yet...
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 7 2016, 03:44 PM)
Do not buy yet...
*
crude 32.20

dow futures -300





who still wanna buy/keep oil/energy stocks? sweat.gif

many M&A deals coming in 2016, i think.
TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 03:48 PM

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If anybody is holding the USD in a USD bankaccount in SG, please be aware that you are not earning any returns at all with this amount. There is a zero or almost zero fixed deposit rate on this USD holding.

Do purchase some instruments that sllow you to earn a good return from your USD holdings, unless you are thinking of only waiting for the capital gain from appreciation of the USD as the Feds increased interest rates.
TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 03:48 PM)
crude 32.20

dow futures -300
who still wanna buy/keep oil/energy stocks?  sweat.gif

many M&A deals coming in 2016, i think.
*
True,..but,..waiting for the signal,...
TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 03:52 PM

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2008 / 2009 has come again,.......I can officially declare,.... similar sequence of events, conceptually, compared to back then,......... thumbup.gif thumbup.gif thumbup.gif thumbup.gif

No more dillying-dallying the drop anymore....
TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 03:54 PM

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Prepare your bullets,..... get ready to back-up the truck, and enjoy the dividends again for the next 8 to 10 years of your lives....
AVFAN
post Jan 7 2016, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 7 2016, 03:52 PM)
2008 / 2009 has come again,.......I can officially declare,.... similar sequence of events, conceptually, compared to back then,.........  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif

No more dillying-dallying the drop anymore....
*
that will be scary, not many will have the guts to see it thru. biggrin.gif

dow shed 45% over that period. sweat.gif


LY115
post Jan 7 2016, 04:07 PM

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Sembcorp Industries dropped below 2.8

Keppel Corp below 5.9


LY115
post Jan 7 2016, 04:10 PM

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mind to share your opinion on Telco counters (Singtel, M1, Starhub) ???

they used to be good shelter for investor due to their stability and dividend yield... but it doesn't seem so during this crisis...
TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 03:57 PM)
that will be scary, not many will have the guts to see it thru. biggrin.gif

dow shed 45% over that period. sweat.gif
*
True also,... but on the other hand, if a crisis like this did not come, investors will not have a chance to go in at good prices. Yes, there will be sweat, especially for those who bought using margin, and for those who could not bear to see their investments going into the red,...but one must be confident enough to know what he wants, and be decisive that what he has decided to do is right.
TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 04:23 PM

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QUOTE(LY115 @ Jan 7 2016, 04:10 PM)
mind to share your opinion on Telco counters (Singtel, M1, Starhub) ???

they used to be good shelter for investor due to their stability and dividend yield... but it doesn't seem so during this crisis...
*
None of the three telco shares have dropped sufficiently yet. Starhub's DPU stands consistent;y at SGD0.20 per year. This will be a good benchmark to gauge when is the drop sufficient for one to buy-up.

elea88
post Jan 7 2016, 05:00 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 7 2016, 03:54 PM)
Prepare your bullets,..... get ready to back-up the truck, and enjoy the dividends again for the next 8 to 10 years of your lives....
*
buy what? buy what?


TSHansel
post Jan 7 2016, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 7 2016, 05:00 PM)
buy what? buy what?
*
For myself, for Income and Diversification, buy :-

1) Keppel Corp
2) Keppel DC REIT
3) OCBC
4) Frasers Centrepoint Trust
5) For USD holdings : Mandarin Oriental

Second grouping :-

1) SilverlakeAxis
2) ....

So, far, my research has targetted the above.


prophetjul
post Jan 7 2016, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 7 2016, 03:52 PM)
2008 / 2009 has come again,.......I can officially declare,.... similar sequence of events, conceptually, compared to back then,.........  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif

No more dillying-dallying the drop anymore....
*
Yeah. My 6,7,13 baggers came during those years of buying!
Showtime747
post Jan 8 2016, 09:30 AM

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Walan, price really falling down like London bridge tongue.gif

Opportunity ? Threat ? You buy or sell now ? Can share your strategy ? thumbup.gif

For me, I have started buying slowly starting today (10% of my bullet every 1 time). Dividend seasons is here. And also when some good news reappear from China, then it will make a turn back up. I think is good opportunity for trading now thumbup.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 8 2016, 09:33 AM

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Circuit-breakers have been lifted. Let's see how China shares will fare this morning without 'protection'. China regulators promised not to stop sellers from selling even if the mkt drops badly today.

Trading starts NOW !
Showtime747
post Jan 8 2016, 09:37 AM

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Bugger.....open down 30+ points and broke 2700 barrier, then shot back up 30 points ! Miss the boat for posting in LYN tongue.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 8 2016, 09:38 AM

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Asian mkts reversed losses, for now !!!!!!! News of China stopping CBs seems to be received well by investors.

KepCorp jumped from opening at 5.68 to 5.83 now, as I write !
TSHansel
post Jan 8 2016, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 8 2016, 09:37 AM)
Bugger.....open down 30+ points and broke 2700 barrier, then shot back up 30 points ! Miss the boat for posting in LYN  tongue.gif
*
Beat you to it, my friend,... biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif hoped you huat,...
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2016, 09:59 AM

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china is really giving worldwide investors and punters a wild ride. biggrin.gif

the cb u-turn appears to have provided some calm at open.

crude, dow futures also trended up at china open.

gotta watch a bit closer as it is capable of 3-5% swings on any day.



and this, if it kicks in, will give it another wild ride:

QUOTE
Sources: China wants quick, sharp currency decline

China's central bank is under increasing pressure from policy advisers to let the yuan currency fall quickly and sharply, by as much as 10-15 percent, as its recent gradual softening is thought to be doing more harm than good.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/sources-chi...cy-decline.html

TSHansel
post Jan 8 2016, 10:08 AM

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The SGX TRACKS the CSI300 closely ! Close observation this morning,....
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post Jan 8 2016, 10:15 AM

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Nymex and Brent Crude Oil seems to track the China CSI300 too ! But how strong is the coupling ? Can't tell from my program,....
TSHansel
post Jan 8 2016, 02:44 PM

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Caught quite a number of lots of KepCorp today at $5.80.
yck1987
post Jan 10 2016, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 8 2016, 02:44 PM)
Caught quite a number of lots of KepCorp today at $5.80.
*
so confident ? Ur part of averaging down Or u predict it will rebound so soon ?
TSHansel
post Jan 10 2016, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 10 2016, 02:18 PM)
so confident ? Ur part of averaging down Or u predict it will rebound so soon ?
*
YCK,...I appreciated your question, and you are very right in asking such a question.

I'll try to explain my rationale in the best way that I think I can : What I buy today may not reflect accurately, the justification for this decision down the road, if KepCorp plunges further. And, if KepCorp goes up (for which I think it wouldn't last), I still would not sell, for I am a longterm investor, for the income and the cap gain.

In the short term, I would need to buy strong and stable companies, because having my SGD sitting there in the bank account does not make sense.

I would rather earn the dividend from KepCorp, no matter how little, and continue to accumulate KepCorp as time goes by. The earlier I buy from KepCorp, the earlier that I would start to earn its dividend. This decision would be sound, IF KEPCORP DOES NOT DIE.

I really don't know if KepCorp may plunge all the way down to $3.50 in 12 months' time,... be if it does, so be it then,... I will continue to hold. I will continue to earn its divdiend as the years go by. I would carry the conviction that KepCorp will not go into liquidation, for KepCorp has many sectors of businesses that will hold it in times of trouble.

And no, I will NOT regret if KepCorp plunges further and I did not wait longer to try to get into a better price,...it's okay, I'll start to earn my dividends earlier.

And I will start to reap other advantages of owning KepCorp earlier, rather than waiting and waiting and trying to buy KepCorp at the bottom. I have come to the realization that I cannot predict the bottom,...so I must buy the CORRECT type of counters in times like these, rather than waiting and waiting for the bottom and letting my SGD sit in the bank idling.

I would appreciate your debate and disagreement if you have any,...or anybody's, for that matter. Perhaps I am wrong in thinking like this ??????????
TSHansel
post Jan 10 2016, 03:34 PM

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As we ponder the above posting of mine, I append below another writeup on the SGX' governance to protect investors, and more importantly, to protect the public in four Asean nations from possible haze problems in future :-

January 7, 2016:

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) is moving forward in requiring Singapore-listed firms to report their economic, environmental and social impact. As part of this exercise, the bourse is seeking public commentary on the proposed rules and guidelines that publicly-listed firms will have to follow in publishing these reports.

The exchange’s announcement marks a shift from the regime of voluntary sustainability reporting, which has been in place since 2011. According to the bourse, it intends to implement these rules on a “comply or explain” basis from December 31, 2017, onwards. In these reports, the firms explain and account for how they manage material risks and business opportunities associated with economic, environmental and social factors.

In a statement, the SGX explained: “Sustainability reporting complements financial reporting with the environmental, social and governance (ESG) aspects of business and strategy, to give investors better insight into the companies they invest in. This enables investors to more comprehensively assess a company’s prospects and quality of management. The increased disclosure enhances transparency and builds investor understanding and trust over time.”

A survey by the bourse in June 2015 indicated that 90 per cent of institutional investors considered ESG factors in their investment decision, with the “comply or explain” approach to sustainability reporting granting firms a “latitude of reporting in the way which best suits their industry and circumstances”. With the public consultation open until 5 February 2015, the Singapore bourse is proposing to grant each corporation five months after the end of each financial year to publish their sustainability reports.

Firms not reporting the required components must explain the rationale behind non-compliance for reporting and why certain factors are considered by the firm as irrelevant. “Sustainability reporting builds on transparency and governance for which Singapore is internationally recognised. It addressed investor demand for quality returns and gives companies the opportunity to differentiate themselves,”stated SGX chief executive Loh Boon Chye.

This new move is expected to impact close to 800 primary-listed corporates across the Mainboard and Catalist secondary boards, with these additional compliance increasing reporting costs for companies. However, according to the SGX, this may allow firms that engage in sustainability reporting to connect with new investor groups who include sustainability practices as part of their investment thesis.

Coming in the wake of the Paris climate deal that saw China taking an international leadership role and committing to several initiatives, its direct relevance lies in the fact that many corporations involved in the palm oil value chain are listed on the bourse of the city-state. The razing of the rainforest and resulting haze impacted the region, with countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines suffering from the impact of the haze.

The move to make sustainability reporting compulsory is part of a move to constrain and hopefully restrict palm oil firms, increasing the stringency of current due diligence and discourage such destructive behaviour by these firms.

SGX Special Adviser Yeo Lian Sim, said: “What sustainability reporting does is to have more information about the environmental, social and governance aspects of the company, its opportunities and its risks that have effect on the company business performance. So to the investor with this information, it enables a more in-depth analysis of what is coming in terms of the company’s performance and you’ll also be able to assess how good the quality of the management is.”

LY115
post Jan 11 2016, 10:03 AM

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STI dive another 2% in the morning...

All the gurus... what view on that???

Kepcorp drop to 5.55...
Sembcorp Industries drop to 2.67
Capituland drop to 3.07
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2016, 11:06 AM

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all sgx is deep red today...

reading these, it looks like more to come.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/10/goldman-sac...to-persist.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/10/asian-stock...orries-oil.html

worldwide stocks down, oil down, commodities down, all but 2 currencies down.

i see only 2 things that stay high or going higher - USD and YEN.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 11 2016, 11:07 AM
elea88
post Jan 11 2016, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 11 2016, 11:06 AM)
all sgx is deep red today...

reading these, it looks like more to come.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/10/goldman-sac...to-persist.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/10/asian-stock...orries-oil.html

worldwide stocks down, oil down, commodities down, all but 2 currencies down.

i see only 2 things that stay high or going higher - USD and YEN.
*
so buy JAPANESE REIT?
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2016, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 11 2016, 01:35 PM)
so buy JAPANESE REIT?
*
that, i can't say. biggrin.gif
elea88
post Jan 11 2016, 02:50 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 11 2016, 02:01 PM)
that, i can't say. biggrin.gif
*
very temtpted.. coz really red.

even if share price down.. dividends payout remain the same plus minus right? unless there is a shift in tenancy or disposal of property.
TSHansel
post Jan 11 2016, 05:37 PM

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QUOTE(LY115 @ Jan 11 2016, 10:03 AM)
STI dive another 2% in the morning...

All the gurus... what view on that???

Kepcorp drop to 5.55...
Sembcorp Industries drop to 2.67
Capituland drop to 3.07
*
Good evening all...

KepCorp has plunged again to 5.55. Bought at 5.80 last Friday,... smile.gif

It's okay, I'm hoping to start buying-in slowly asap. My charts tell me that the next main support level is around 4.85 to 4.90, since 5.80 has been breached,...ignoring the removal of circuit-breakers in the CSI300 market.


TSHansel
post Jan 11 2016, 05:46 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 11 2016, 02:50 PM)
very temtpted.. coz really red.

even if share price down.. dividends payout remain the same plus minus right? unless there is a shift in tenancy or disposal of property.
*
This was how I did it back in 2008.... smile.gif The time has come again, it's a repeat of 2008 again,....but buy-in slowly. NOT all REITs will maintain the DPU even after the price has dropped.

Hence,... select only the REITs which have been mispriced by the market after their prices dropped. Study the fundamentals closely....

After selecting carefully, buy when a strong support level has been reached. Start earning the dividends earlier,...
TSHansel
post Jan 12 2016, 11:57 AM

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There are talks that the MAS may need to lower the NEER Band of the SGD soon, if the price of oil continues to drop and China continues to give problems. If the NEER Band is lowered again (the last time was in Oct 2015), the SGD may correct downwards in the near term.

But how long will it stay low against our MYR ?
elea88
post Jan 13 2016, 08:12 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 11 2016, 05:37 PM)
Good evening all...

KepCorp has plunged again to 5.55. Bought at 5.80 last Friday,... smile.gif

It's okay, I'm hoping to start buying-in slowly asap. My charts tell me that the next main support level is around 4.85 to 4.90, since 5.80 has been breached,...ignoring the removal of circuit-breakers in the CSI300 market.
*
Bought 100unit KEP CORP 5.31... test test... Suppose to wait till 4.80. but hand itchy.
prophetjul
post Jan 13 2016, 08:52 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 13 2016, 08:12 AM)
Bought 100unit KEP CORP 5.31... test test... Suppose to wait till 4.80. but hand itchy.
*
Closed at 5.16?

Looking like 485 could be quite soon
elea88
post Jan 13 2016, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 13 2016, 08:52 AM)
Closed at 5.16?

Looking like 485 could be quite soon
*
haiz.. ya lor.. 1st time i try buy 100 units. This knife very sharp!!!
AVFAN
post Jan 13 2016, 10:33 AM

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i'm selling my singtel.

net of 2 rounds of dividends, small loss.

sgx looks weak, worldwide also weak.

better hide under reits or keep usd. tongue.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 13 2016, 01:41 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 13 2016, 08:12 AM)
Bought 100unit KEP CORP 5.31... test test... Suppose to wait till 4.80. but hand itchy.
*
It's okay,... buy in small batches, as in your minimum quantity now. Can average down later. With minimum holdings, it will entitle you to go for AGMs and EGMs. You will also be entitled to participate in Rights Issues, etc,... Go for whatever functions available,... it will give you a 'feel' of the company.
TSHansel
post Jan 13 2016, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 13 2016, 10:33 AM)
i'm selling my singtel.

net of 2 rounds of dividends, small loss.

sgx looks weak, worldwide also weak.

better hide under reits or keep usd. tongue.gif
*
Yes,... it's better to wait now,... 2008 coming,....

Steady, steady,....

prophetjul
post Jan 13 2016, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 13 2016, 01:41 PM)
It's okay,... buy in small batches, as in your minimum quantity now. Can average down later. With minimum holdings, it will entitle you to go for AGMs and EGMs. You will also be entitled to participate in Rights Issues, etc,... Go for whatever functions available,... it will give you a 'feel' of the company.
*
i visit their shipyards and meet their directors. biggrin.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 13 2016, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 13 2016, 02:25 PM)
i visit their shipyards and meet their directors.  biggrin.gif
*
Yes, of course,... but shipyards are not their only business sectors,... biggrin.gif Loh Chin Hua could be misleading you. biggrin.gif

prophetjul
post Jan 13 2016, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 13 2016, 03:47 PM)
Yes, of course,... but shipyards are not their only business sectors,... biggrin.gif Loh Chin Hua could be misleading you.  biggrin.gif
*
Yeah. But thats a big part of their biz. Last year has been bad for their shipyards
TSHansel
post Jan 13 2016, 08:08 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 13 2016, 03:57 PM)
Yeah. But thats a big part of their biz. Last year has been bad for their shipyards
*
KepCorp has time and again emphasized that their business activities are diversified enough to withstand the oil downturn. They have even said that their shipyards would still have a lot of work in 2016 and 2017,... they called it 'the next two years' in the last two quarterly reports.

I can't remember how bad their shipyards have done, I only remembered that their rig-business have brought in bad results. Shipyard business and rig-business are two different lines of business.
Vector88
post Jan 13 2016, 11:09 PM

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https://www.fool.sg/2016/01/12/a-tsunami-ma...orp-marine-ltd/

Hansel, elea88 and whoever interested in sembcorp and keppel, have a look at the article above and do furher due diligence...
prophetjul
post Jan 14 2016, 08:51 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 13 2016, 08:08 PM)
KepCorp has time and again emphasized that their business activities are diversified enough to withstand the oil downturn. They have even said that their shipyards would still have a lot of work in 2016 and 2017,... they called it 'the next two years' in the last two quarterly reports.

I can't remember how bad their shipyards have done, I only remembered that their rig-business have brought in bad results. Shipyard business and rig-business are two different lines of business.
*
Their shipyard at least in SG are very low in work volume, especially on conversions. 2017 has 2 probables.......compared with 4/5years ago where they had in excess of 10/12 work orders at a time!

i happen to have a report. biggrin.gif

They probably have some maintenance works which are low budget work items. These are not affected by O n G

They have some 6 yards around the world! Some are pretty new. So you can imagine the impact on these yards. They are the biggest converter of FPSOs in the world. With O n G down, the FPSO mkt is almost at a standstill.
Vector88
post Jan 14 2016, 09:09 AM

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Sibeh red today, esp keppel.. Broke 5 bucks within 10mins of trading...
AVFAN
post Jan 14 2016, 09:11 AM

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i failed to sell my Singtel yesterday at 3.59.

today will try 3.55. sad.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 14 2016, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Jan 14 2016, 09:09 AM)
Sibeh red today, esp keppel.. Broke 5 bucks within 10mins of trading...
*
Hi Vector,... tq for the report in your previous post.

The momentum by which the price dived from 5.20 yesterday to today's 4.90 is scary,... why, because it defies the graphical prediction that I have. I was thinking that 4.85 should be a very,very strong support. But,...judging by the way the fall took place between yesterday and today, the slope of the fall, I do not think that 4.85 is a strong support anymore.

Must look for the next one now, go thorugh the observations again. FA does not work all the time,...
elea88
post Jan 14 2016, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Jan 14 2016, 09:09 AM)
Sibeh red today, esp keppel.. Broke 5 bucks within 10mins of trading...
*
yeah.. this KNIFE too too sharp.

will break support today. Anything related to OIL will dipped very fast.
TSHansel
post Jan 14 2016, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 14 2016, 08:51 AM)
Their shipyard at least in SG are very low in work volume, especially on conversions. 2017 has 2 probables.......compared with 4/5years ago where they had in excess of 10/12 work orders at a time! 

i happen to have a report.    biggrin.gif

They probably have some maintenance works which are low budget work items. These are not affected by O n G

They have some 6 yards around the world! Some are pretty new. So you can imagine the impact on these yards. They are the biggest converter of FPSOs in the world. With O n G down, the FPSO mkt is almost at a standstill.
*
Tq, prophet,...appreciated your infos. On the FPSO, the news that caught my eyes were the fact that their client, Petrobras is caught in some corruption scandal, and had to re-negotiate some payment terms. This, of course, hit KepCorp's books. Brazil is in a lot of problems, in-country as well as with her currency, the Real.

KepCorp will be having a webcast on Jan 21, Thursday next week, probably after office hours. Do watch for it for the latest news and updates.

Keppel DC REIT is announcing their results this evening, after trading hours.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust's AGM will also be held on the same day as KepCorp's webcast results ann't..


yck1987
post Jan 14 2016, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 14 2016, 11:23 AM)
yeah.. this KNIFE too too sharp.

will break support today. Anything related to OIL will dipped very fast.
*
dont dare to look at my kep corp now. -20% liao but I will still keeping smile.gif

look like boat arriving at port for many counters now drool.gif

or ready for more drop to come? shakehead.gif
yck1987
post Jan 14 2016, 12:14 PM

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My portfolio is lacking of healthcare & utlities sector.

Target to add in : RMG , PLife reits, Sheng Shiong

Any thought of this?
TSHansel
post Jan 14 2016, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Jan 13 2016, 11:09 PM)
https://www.fool.sg/2016/01/12/a-tsunami-ma...orp-marine-ltd/

Hansel, elea88 and whoever interested in sembcorp and keppel, have a look at the article above and do furher due diligence...
*
Just finished reading your article here,... some lines reinforced what I replied to Prophet this morning,....

'But more importantly the resulting reduction in cashflows could raise SMM’s net gearing from 0.6x in 3Q15 to 0.9x in FY16 but Keppel’s could still stay at the 0.5x level given lesser exposure and diversified income stream.'

And then,... the possible bad news that could take place:-

'Dividends will be cut'.

The date to watch for will be Jan 28th., Thursday, where the meeting will decude if Sete needs to declare bankruptcy. Well,... I guessed the time has finally come,...if the worst will happen for KepCorp in heir O&M business.

Edited : So sorry, the above are from another ariticle that I read,.... : http://sbr.com.sg/energy-offshore/exclusiv...rasil-goes-bust. Not from The Motley Fool.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 14 2016, 12:57 PM
TSHansel
post Jan 14 2016, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 14 2016, 12:09 PM)
dont dare to look at my kep corp now. -20% liao but I will still keeping  smile.gif

look like boat arriving at port for many counters now  drool.gif

or ready for more drop to come?  shakehead.gif
*
20% above $4.90 now = $5.85, as your current Buy Price. I would hold,... no need to sell. Depending on news from Jan 29th onwards, be prepared for divvy cut, though,....

Steady, steady,... KepCorp will not die,....
yck1987
post Jan 14 2016, 01:16 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 14 2016, 01:00 PM)
20% above $4.90 now = $5.85, as your current Buy Price. I would hold,... no need to sell. Depending on news from Jan 29th onwards, be prepared for divvy cut, though,....

Steady, steady,... KepCorp will not die,....
*
I believe Termasek as back up KepCorp would not die wan, dunno have to wait how long to recoup the losses. If update till today price is -25%.
From a super power house Blue chip now look like mid-cap stock already. Jialat, cry.gif

Ii will train my heart to be steady, steady.

This post has been edited by yck1987: Jan 14 2016, 01:18 PM
TSHansel
post Jan 14 2016, 02:20 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 14 2016, 01:16 PM)
I believe Termasek as back up KepCorp would not die wan, dunno have to wait how long to recoup the losses. If update till today price is -25%.
From a super power house Blue chip now look like mid-cap stock already. Jialat,  cry.gif

Ii will train my heart to be steady, steady.
*
YCK,... steady,... look at this chart : https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BN4....BN4.SI;range=2y

In October 2008, it dropped to $3.30... should make you feel better.... the furthest this Yahoo Finance chart could show was back till May 2nd, 2007. Like I said earlier, there are many other business segments for KepCorp. I wouldn't be too worried. I'd be more worried of when to buy more, than worrying about the drop in price, since I am already in....
TSHansel
post Jan 14 2016, 02:21 PM

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For SGX enthusiasts, the word to keep in mind now is : steady, steady....

Between SG and MY, I would prefer to put my chips on the SG Gov't....
prophetjul
post Jan 14 2016, 03:20 PM

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Keppel will NOT die. But maybe hibernate for a while.
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post Jan 14 2016, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 14 2016, 03:20 PM)
Keppel will NOT die. But maybe hibernate for a while.
*
if it is about o&g sector, the question is for how long...

we have yet to see mega M&A's for this sector - oil cos, oilfield services, rig builders, support services incl logistics...

i will not put any money in this sector for some time.

not until it has come full circle.


elea88
post Jan 14 2016, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 14 2016, 12:14 PM)
My portfolio is lacking of healthcare & utlities sector.

Target to add in : RMG , PLife reits, Sheng Shiong

Any thought of this?
*
I only hv SHENG SHIONG.. till today its still in green.
Family run SUNDRY BUSINESS...

prophetjul
post Jan 14 2016, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 14 2016, 03:30 PM)
if it is about o&g sector, the question is for how long...

we have yet to see mega M&A's for this sector - oil cos, oilfield services, rig builders, support services incl logistics...

i will not put any money in this sector for some time.

not until it has come full circle.
*
Yeah

There are lots of excesses built up over the last 8,9 years. They are beginning to unwind. many companies will go under and be eaten up.
Had lunch with my friend just now. Told me Premier oil of UK went from 4 to 0.28 !

Many will have liquidity problems. Shell is trying to rid of its smaller operations in Malaysia presently.
Many mergers will happen. Halliburton wants to merge with Baker Hughes.

Understand Keppel invested heavily in their shipyards the last 5 years. It may weigh on them.

Have some popcorn. Show is just beginning!
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post Jan 14 2016, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 14 2016, 03:44 PM)
Yeah

There are lots of excesses built up over the last 8,9 years. They are beginning to unwind. many companies will go under and be eaten up.
Had lunch with my friend just now. Told me Premier oil of UK went from 4 to 0.28 !

Many will have liquidity problems. Shell is trying to rid of its smaller operations in Malaysia presently.
Many mergers will happen. Halliburton wants to merge with Baker Hughes.

Understand Keppel invested heavily in their shipyards the last 5 years. It may weigh on them.

Have some popcorn. Show is just beginning!
*
this industry is heavily capitalized, more so with the days of $100 oil.

big entry/exit barriers.

it will take years for it to consolidate completely.

we ain't see nothing yet!

stay far far away.

just enjoy cheaper petrol! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 14 2016, 03:52 PM
elea88
post Jan 14 2016, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 14 2016, 03:47 PM)
this industry is heavily capitalized, more so with the days of $100 oil.

it will take years for it to consolidate completely.

we ain't see nothing yet!

stay far far away.

just enjoy cheaper petrol! laugh.gif
*
i only 100 units 5.31... even that is 100 plus SGD losses if cut!
AVFAN
post Jan 14 2016, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 14 2016, 03:51 PM)
i only 100 units 5.31... even that is 100 plus SGD losses if cut!
*
but why hold when u more or less know u will lose more? tongue.gif

hehe... my trader mentality emerging...! laugh.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 14 2016, 05:40 PM

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The Mandarin Oriental is now at USD1.335, if the DPU stands at USD0.07, the yield comes to about 5.2%,...... you are earning the USD.........
TSHansel
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If one is holding SembCorp Marine instead of KepCorp, then, well,... I would agree that he cuts. But if he is holding KepCorp with a diversified business, then it's worth holding, and wait to average down.

Another news about KepCorp emerged this evening. In short :-

Environmental engineering unit commences operations and maintenance contract for Doha North project in Qatar for 10 years

Keppel Seghers Engineering Singapore Pte Ltd (Keppel Seghers), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Infrastructure Holdings Pte Ltd (Keppel Infrastructure), has achieved a substantial handover of the Doha North Sewage Treatment Works (DNSTW) to the client on 10 December 2015.

Multiple business segments for KepCorp.

TSHansel
post Jan 14 2016, 06:56 PM

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Just out,...report (unaudited) for Keppel DC REIT. Looks good to me,...

The Directors of Keppel DC REIT Management Pte. Ltd., as Manager of Keppel DC REIT, are pleased to announce the unaudited results of Keppel DC REIT for the financial period from the listing date of 12 December 2014 to 31 December 2015.

Keppel DC REIT's YTD 2015 Distribution Per Unit Exceeds Forecast By 1.9%.

Results Highlights :-

•YTD 2015 :-

◦Distribution per Unit of 3.28 cents declared for 2H 2015
◦Net property income outperformed IPO forecast by 1.7%
◦Distributable income was 1.9% higher than IPO forecast
◦Annualised distribution yield was 13bps above IPO forecast

•4Q 2015 :-

◦Net property income was 1.9% higher than IPO forecast, due to contribution from Intellicentre 2 and lower property expenses. These were partially offset by lower variable rental from Singapore Properties as well as lower rental income arising from depreciation of certain foreign currencies
◦Distributable income was 2.2% above IPO forecast

•Portfolio occupancy remains healthy at 94.8%, up from 93.5% at IPO
•Portfolio weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 8.7 years by leased lettable area
•Aggregate leverage of 29.2%
•Interest coverage ratio of 9.4 times

Comments :-
1) Looks to me like almost every parameter exceeded IPO forecast.
2) Their SG properties yielded a lower rental income,... hmm, why and which prop ?
3) The strength of the SGD is sometimes detrimental to unitholders. Because of the SGD strengthening against many currencies worldwide, rentals collected from some regions would produce lower SGDs after converting over, resulting in lower rental income from those regions. Hence, having rental props all over the world is not always good,.... unless you live in Penang. biggrin.gif
4) DPU calculations :-

The DPU for the period Dec 12, 2014 (listing date) till June 30, 2015 was 3.56 SG Cents.

The DPU for the 3Q was calculated to be 1.64 CG Cents.

It is mentioned that the DPU for 2H 2015 was 3.28 SG Cents, hence, the DPU for 4Q must be 1.64 SG Cents.

In general, the DPU for each quarter seems to be at 1.64 SG Cents, with positive events offsetting negative events, here and there. If I have an average price of, say,... SGD 1.015 per unit, this DPU would yield me 6.46%, earning the Singapore Dollar.

I can live with 6.46%................. rclxms.gif

Rate : BUY ! Especially if the market misprices this counter further due to current events.

TSHansel
post Jan 14 2016, 07:13 PM

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For investors who are enthusiastic about SG Banks, do look closely at, not only OCBC for now, but also UOB. The prices have come down a very fair bit, and the yields are getting good.

Furthermore, of the three SG Banks, DBS is most exposed to possible defaults from O&G companies, followed by OCBC, and lastly UOB. Hence, include UOB into your radar.

But,... do not buy yet,... steady,......
elea88
post Jan 15 2016, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 14 2016, 07:13 PM)
For investors who are enthusiastic about SG Banks, do look closely at, not only OCBC for now, but also UOB. The prices have come down a very fair bit, and the yields are getting good.

Furthermore, of the three SG Banks, DBS is most exposed to possible defaults from O&G companies, followed by OCBC, and lastly UOB. Hence, include UOB into your radar.

But,... do not buy yet,... steady,......
*
in my radar UOB.... But dunno when is the lowest?
prophetjul
post Jan 15 2016, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 15 2016, 10:50 AM)
in my radar UOB.... But dunno when is the lowest?
*
If we knew, we will all be RICH! biggrin.gif
Showtime747
post Jan 15 2016, 04:07 PM

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Good week for fishing ! Fish took my bait, line and sinker !

Hope the fish is as hungry next week tongue.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 15 2016, 06:55 PM

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I reviewed my list of targetted REITs and Dividend Companies this evening and I saw all have gone down. YES - truly,...the days of 2008/9 have come again.

Let us prepare our bullets, pick our targets, and prepare ourselves for the big battle ahead. If we are successful in this battle, we will enjoy real passive income in the next few years, perhaps for another 8 years or so, before the next cycle comes again for the next battle.

BATTLE 2016 !!!!!...FOR PASSIVE INCOME, AND FOR TRADERS, TO HUAT AHEAD !!!
prophetjul
post Jan 15 2016, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 15 2016, 06:55 PM)
I reviewed my list of targetted REITs and Dividend Companies this evening and I saw all have gone down. YES - truly,...the days of 2008/9 have come again.

Let us prepare our bullets, pick our targets, and prepare ourselves for the big battle ahead. If we are successful in this battle, we will enjoy real passive income in the next few years, perhaps for another 8 years or so, before the next cycle comes again for the next battle.

BATTLE 2016 !!!!!...FOR PASSIVE INCOME, AND FOR TRADERS, TO HUAT AHEAD !!!
*
Looks like more pain and blood to come.

DJ futures down almost 400 pts now
elea88
post Jan 16 2016, 09:24 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 15 2016, 10:17 PM)
Looks like more pain and blood to come.

DJ futures down almost 400 pts now
*
time to collect...
Now the game is to research which of the reits having tenancy due... and low tenancy. which will affect the yield.
AVFAN
post Jan 16 2016, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 16 2016, 09:24 AM)
time to collect...
Now the game is to research which of the reits having tenancy due... and low tenancy. which will affect the yield.
*
try not to do too much, too fast... tongue.gif
QUOTE
Is It Over Yet? Two Weeks In, 2016 Feels Like Year of the Bear

January 16, 2016 — 7:39 AM MYT

Not even the pessimists on Wall Street thought things would go so wrong so fast in 2016.
For the first time in 12 years, oil is below $30 a barrel. China is struggling to prop up its slowing economy and calm its volatile stock market. For the moment, the bears have the upper hand -- and January is only half over. As the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 391 points on Friday, investors the world over seemed to be groping for any good news. While most money managers kept their cool, few offered assurances the U.S. market would bounce back soon, as it did after a similar bout of turmoil last August.
The selling has been intense, and European stocks officially entered bear market territory on Friday when the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed down 20 percent from its record high in April. Now global equities have lost more than $14 trillion, or 20 percent, since June. The pace of the drop has been so fast it’s unraveled about half of the rally since a low in 2011. Investors have fled into the U.S. Treasury market, and pushed the yield on the 10-year note below 2 percent for the first time in months.
The triggers for the upheaval are familiar -- China and oil -- and the anxiety is the usual one.
“It comes down to one basic fear, which is the global economy,” said Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist for BlackRock Inc., which manages $4.5 trillion. “What people are afraid of is this isn’t investors overreacting, but reflects a fundamental deterioration in growth.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ear-of-the-bear

TSHansel
post Jan 16 2016, 01:39 PM

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That's right,...now's the time to research HARD,... which of the counters are worth to go into. For investors, look at the strengths of each counter, be it in terms of tenancy rate dropping, or reducing dividend. Research hard,... and deep,....

In 2008/9, the drop and recovery was a 'V', I wondered if this time will be the same. If it's a 'V' again, then it will not be easy to catch the shares or units at the best price possible,... it's never possible to buy at the bottom, but we must try to buy at points which are not too far from the bottom point of the 'V'.

I look at it this way,... if this selldown never came, then people like us will never have a chance to buy-in cheap. Only in a market selldown like this will institutional investors have to sell due to their internal policies. The selling then snowballs, and the market plunges further and further, giving chances for retail investors like us to go in.

For those who have funds in-hand,...it's heaven on earth now,.... rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif

Research hard, load-up when the 'V' starts to turn up....
AVFAN
post Jan 17 2016, 12:10 PM

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not suggesting anything, but... before buying or selling, check these:

QUOTE
Bear market is here—expect another 15% plunge: Technician
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/16/bear-market...technician.html

Why the heck are the markets tanking?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-heck...-165146322.html


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 17 2016, 12:11 PM
TSHansel
post Jan 17 2016, 06:35 PM

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Well.... US markets fell badly last Friday,... chances are it will likely to be another sea of red again in the SGX tomorrow,....let it fall, let it fall,....
TSHansel
post Jan 17 2016, 06:52 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 14 2016, 06:31 PM)
If one is holding SembCorp Marine instead of KepCorp, then, well,... I would agree that he cuts. But if he is holding KepCorp with a diversified business, then it's worth holding, and wait to average down.

Another news about KepCorp emerged this evening. In short :-

Environmental engineering unit commences operations and maintenance contract for Doha North project in Qatar for 10 years

Keppel Seghers Engineering Singapore Pte Ltd (Keppel Seghers), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Infrastructure Holdings Pte Ltd (Keppel Infrastructure), has achieved a substantial handover of the Doha North Sewage Treatment Works (DNSTW) to the client on 10 December 2015.

Multiple business segments for KepCorp.
*
Another news from Keppel REIT, a segment of KepCorp :-

Keppel REIT divests its interest in 77 King Street for A$160 million

The sale of the property in Sydney is approximately 40% above its original purchase price and an approximate 27% premium over its latest valuation, and will yield a divestment gain of approximately A$28 million

Keppel REIT Management Limited, as manager of Keppel REIT (the "Manager"), wishes to announce the divestment of its 100% interest in 77 King Street (the "Property") in Sydney, Australia, to ARE Noble Pty Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Invesco Asia Core Fund for A$160 million or approximately S$160 million, resulting in a divestment gain of approximately A$28 million or S$28 million.

And a news by Keppel Land :-

Keppel Land acquires 22.4% stake in retail mall 112 Katong

Keppel Land Limited (Keppel Land), through a wholly-owned subsidiary, has acquired in aggregate, a 22.4% stake in 112 Katong lifestyle mall from BHG Holdings Pte. Ltd., Imagine Properties Pte. Ltd. and Perennial Singapore Investment Holdings Pte. Ltd. for an aggregate cash consideration of approximately $51.4 million.





AVFAN
post Jan 18 2016, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE
Singapore Dec exports slide as downturn in sales to China deepens
1 Hour Ago

Singapore exports fell more than expected in December as a slump in sales to China deepened, adding to worries that global headwinds will keep the trade-dependent economy on a wobbly footing this year.

The data could revive expectations that the central bank will ease its monetary policy again in April or in an off-cycle move before that, especially as oil prices continue to tumble.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) slid 7.2 percent in December from a year earlier, trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said in a statement on Monday, missing the median forecast of a 5.1 percent contraction in a Reuters poll.

That compared with a 3.4 percent contraction in November.

On a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis, non-oil domestic exports fell 3.1 percent in December, worse than the forecast for steady shipments.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/17/singapores-...mber-slump.html

prophetjul
post Jan 18 2016, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 18 2016, 11:37 AM)
QUOTE
Singapore Dec exports slide as downturn in sales to China deepens
1 Hour Ago

Singapore exports fell more than expected in December as a slump in sales to China deepened, adding to worries that global headwinds will keep the trade-dependent economy on a wobbly footing this year.

The data could revive expectations that the central bank will ease its monetary policy again in April or in an off-cycle move before that, especially as oil prices continue to tumble.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) slid 7.2 percent in December from a year earlier, trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said in a statement on Monday, missing the median forecast of a 5.1 percent contraction in a Reuters poll.

That compared with a 3.4 percent contraction in November.

On a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis, non-oil domestic exports fell 3.1 percent in December, worse than the forecast for steady shipments.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/17/singapores-...mber-slump.html

*
Looking like global economy screeching to a halt.
AVFAN
post Jan 18 2016, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 18 2016, 11:39 AM)
Looking like global economy screeching to a halt.
*
this seems to be the message from most analysts/technicians.

all kinds of reports now pointing to weak oil will get weaker, china weakness will get weaker, credit markets getting squeezed...

still, a minority is bullish, all will rebound soon.




i dumped all my us and sg stocks since a couple of months ago, so glad. tongue.gif

kept only sg reits... hope they can ride it out.

now, just wait and look for signs of reversal.

and trade a bit here and there.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 18 2016, 11:44 AM
prophetjul
post Jan 18 2016, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 18 2016, 11:44 AM)
this seems to be the message from most analysts/technicians.

all kinds of reports now pointing to weak oil will get weaker, china weakness will get weaker, credit markets getting squeezed...

still, a minority is bullish, all will rebound soon.
i dumped all my us and sg stocks since a couple of months ago, so glad. tongue.gif

kept only sg reits... hope they can ride it out.

now, just wait and look for signs of reversal.

and trade a bit here and there.
*
China is the elephant in the room. Has been for many years. We just don't know the data from China. Authentic or not?
But it seems to be worse than all them reports.

I am holding SG Reits still.

I am trading Msian stocks......not doing too badly here.
TSHansel
post Jan 18 2016, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 18 2016, 11:44 AM)
this seems to be the message from most analysts/technicians.

all kinds of reports now pointing to weak oil will get weaker, china weakness will get weaker, credit markets getting squeezed...

still, a minority is bullish, all will rebound soon.
i dumped all my us and sg stocks since a couple of months ago, so glad. tongue.gif

kept only sg reits... hope they can ride it out.

now, just wait and look for signs of reversal.

and trade a bit here and there.
*
I have not dumped any REITs and dividend stocks that I bought, many of which were added in the last GFC in 2008/9. Interestingly.. all, except for Cache Logistics Trust, are still green and have substantial margin-of-safety. I take it that now is a good time to test if my investing theories have been right, and if the counters that I have bought-in and added into all this while have been right for investors.

If these counters can withstand the shock this time round, then my confidence level will soar,... smile.gif

However, Cache LOgistics TRust (CLT) have dipped by 15%,... hmm.gif I am toying now with the idea if I should add more to CLT, and is it time yet ?

And,... for the counters which I have started to load-up on since October last year,... ALL are in the red, biggrin.gif ... though I have not heard of any dividend cuts yet. I am not really worried at all,... in fact I am ecstatic to know that these counters are dipping,... Keppel Corp has PLUNGED biggrin.gif .

But, having said the above,.. I am not too happy with the dips of two counters that I have bought since 4Q last year, namely - Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Keppel DC REIT. The dips are not sufficient for me to buy-in. But holding the counters allow me to go for their AGM, for which I will be able to get a better feel of the counters when I am in the same room with the board.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust AGM on coming Thursday - time to observe the BOD. thumbup.gif thumbup.gif thumbup.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 18 2016, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 18 2016, 11:59 AM)
China is the elephant in the room. Has been for many years. We just don't know the data from China. Authentic or not?
But it seems to be worse than all them reports.

I am holding SG Reits still.

I am trading Msian stocks......not doing too badly here.
*
China was never the elephant in the room in the 2008/9 GFC. I agree about the data from China,...reliable or not ??

I am not spending my time trading, instead I am spending it collecting bullets, and studying-up all my instruments, getting ready to go in as soon as the signal is there. I really hoped the recovery this time round is NOT another V-slope rising sharply, as in 2009.

I wonder if any investors are practising this same strategy now,....
AVFAN
post Jan 18 2016, 01:54 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 18 2016, 11:59 AM)
We just don't know the data from China. Authentic or not?
*
i will not give them benefit of doubt.

better knock off 1-2% from every growth figure. laugh.gif
prophetjul
post Jan 18 2016, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 18 2016, 12:29 PM)
China was never the elephant in the room in the 2008/9 GFC. I agree about the data from China,...reliable or not ??

I am not spending my time trading, instead I am spending it collecting bullets, and studying-up all my instruments, getting ready to go in as soon as the signal is there. I really hoped the recovery this time round is NOT another V-slope rising sharply, as in 2009.

I wonder if any investors are practising this same strategy now,....
*
What signal would that be? biggrin.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 18 2016, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 18 2016, 02:21 PM)
What signal would that be?  biggrin.gif
*
Hi Prophet,... My personally-devised signal,.... smile.gif I need to test it first,... if it has a >75% accuracy, then I'll share it with everybody here. If it doesn't, better keep quiet and swallow the failure myself,.... biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Jan 18 2016, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 18 2016, 02:44 PM)
Hi Prophet,... My personally-devised signal,.... smile.gif I need to test it first,... if it has a >75% accuracy, then I'll share it with everybody here. If it doesn't, better keep quiet and swallow the failure myself,.... biggrin.gif
*
Looking forward to that! thumbup.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 18 2016, 05:55 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 18 2016, 03:57 PM)
Looking forward to that!    thumbup.gif
*
biggrin.gif
Showtime747
post Jan 18 2016, 06:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 18 2016, 02:44 PM)
Hi Prophet,... My personally-devised signal,.... smile.gif I need to test it first,... if it has a >75% accuracy, then I'll share it with everybody here. If it doesn't, better keep quiet and swallow the failure myself,.... biggrin.gif
*
Bro, why afraid of failure. Everybody fails more than wins in their life. Even Tiger Woods, Michael Schumacher, roger federer lose more often than win. Just that we learn from the failure and improve the winning chances in the future

If you can share your signal here, maybe we can all perfect it into a sure win signal thumbup.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 18 2016, 06:17 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 18 2016, 02:44 PM)
Hi Prophet,... My personally-devised signal,.... smile.gif I need to test it first,... if it has a >75% accuracy, then I'll share it with everybody here. If it doesn't, better keep quiet and swallow the failure myself,.... biggrin.gif
*
hey, u gotta find a way to test it against computerized trading one day. biggrin.gif



no kidding, this kind of development is both interesting and terrifying:

"rise of the machines":
QUOTE
Why the correction? Machines have taken over
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/why-the-cor...taken-over.html

TSHansel
post Jan 18 2016, 06:41 PM

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Unaudited results from Keppel REIT. Looks good to me,....

The Directors of Keppel REIT Management Limited, as Manager of Keppel REIT, are pleased to announce the unaudited results of Keppel REIT for the fourth quarter and full year ended 31 December 2015.

Keppel REIT's 4Q 2015 distributable income grew 17.8% y-o-y

Gearing reduced significantly to 39.3% and High portfolio occupancy of 99.3% as at end-2015

Key Financial Highlights
• Income distributed to Unitholders for the fourth quarter of 2015 ("4Q 2015") and full year 2015 (FY 2015) rose 17.8% and 5.4% year-on-year ("y-o-y"), and remained constant on a quarter-on-quarter ("q-o-q") basis
• Higher distributable income was achieved despite the lack of income from Prudential Tower, as well as the absence of rental support from Ocean Financial Centre and Marina Bay Financial Centre ("MBFC") Phase One
• Improvement in distributable income was due mainly to higher property income from all assets in Singapore and Australia, as well as higher contributions from share of results of associates and share of results of joint ventures
• Distribution per unit ("DPU") of 1.68 cents for 4Q 2015, amounting to a total of 6.80 cents for FY 2015

Key Capital Management Highlights
• Gearing level reduced significantly by approximately 8% to 39.3%, considerably lower than the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) revised gearing limit of 45%
• Maintained fixed-rate loans at 70% which safeguards against interest rate volatility and provides certainty of interest expenses as well as financial and operational flexibility
• Average cost of debt remained stable at 2.5% and interest coverage ratio at a healthy 4.4 times
• Completed almost 100% of refinancing requirements in 2016, and maintained well-staggered debt maturity profile with weighted average term to expiry at a healthy 3.7 years
• Almost 100% of income from Australia hedged up till the third quarter of 2016 ("3Q 2016")

Key Portfolio Highlights
• Concluded a total of 114 leases, equivalent to approximately 1.6 million sf (attributable space of approximately 800,000 sf) of prime office space in 2015, bringing overall portfolio occupancy to a high of 99.3%
• Of the total new leases signed during the year, half were from tenants who were new to Keppel REIT's portfolio, one quarter from tenants new to Singapore and the remaining one quarter were expansions by existing tenants
• Approximately 30% (32 leases) or 480,000 sf (attributable space of approximately 222,000 sf) of space was committed in 4Q 2015
• Tenants from the telecommunications, media and technology ("TMT") sector accounted for half of the new leases signed during the quarter
• Achieved high tenant retention rate of 90% as at end-2015, and positive rent reversion averaging 13% for all new and renewed office leases in Singapore
• For leases expiring in 2016, the Manager is already in advanced negotiations with these tenants and is likely to achieve high retention
• For leases expiring in 2017, the Manager is also proactively engaging these tenants and is likely to renew most of these leases as the majority of these tenants are in their first renewal cycle
• Approximately 75% of total leases not due for renewal till 2018 and beyond, when limited new office supply is expected
• The Government of Western Australia (WA) commenced its 25-year lease at the office tower on the Old Treasury Building site in Perth in November 2015
• Announced divestment of interest in 77 King Street in Sydney for A$160 million or S$160 million, which is approximately 40% and 27% above the original purchase price and latest valuation respectively

Comments :-

1) Distributable Income grew, Gearing reduced, and high portfolio occupancy - all seemed good.
2) Since it's Keppel REIT, I would have some confidence on what they said about the Manager being likely to achieve high retention. If Bijan's gang says this, I'd think that they will have a revision later on,.... biggrin.gif
3) 75% or more leases will be up for renewal from 2018 when supply for office space lowers down,... good timing...huh ?? biggrin.gif So, not much lease renewal risks for Keppel REIT.

Looks like everything is GOOD ! Really ah ?????

Anybody holding Keppel REIT here ?
TSHansel
post Jan 18 2016, 07:06 PM

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Thanks, Showtime and AV,... I'll bear that in mind. Good comments....
elea88
post Jan 18 2016, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 18 2016, 06:41 PM)
Unaudited results from Keppel REIT. Looks good to me,....

The Directors of Keppel REIT Management Limited, as Manager of Keppel REIT, are pleased to announce the unaudited results of Keppel REIT for the fourth quarter and full year ended 31 December 2015.

Keppel REIT's 4Q 2015 distributable income grew 17.8% y-o-y

Gearing reduced significantly to 39.3% and High portfolio occupancy of 99.3% as at end-2015

Key Financial Highlights
• Income distributed to Unitholders for the fourth quarter of 2015 ("4Q 2015") and full year 2015 (FY 2015) rose 17.8% and 5.4% year-on-year ("y-o-y"), and remained constant on a quarter-on-quarter ("q-o-q") basis
• Higher distributable income was achieved despite the lack of income from Prudential Tower, as well as the absence of rental support from Ocean Financial Centre and Marina Bay Financial Centre ("MBFC") Phase One
• Improvement in distributable income was due mainly to higher property income from all assets in Singapore and Australia, as well as higher contributions from share of results of associates and share of results of joint ventures
• Distribution per unit ("DPU") of 1.68 cents for 4Q 2015, amounting to a total of 6.80 cents for FY 2015

Key Capital Management Highlights
• Gearing level reduced significantly by approximately 8% to 39.3%, considerably lower than the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) revised gearing limit of 45%
• Maintained fixed-rate loans at 70% which safeguards against interest rate volatility and provides certainty of interest expenses as well as financial and operational flexibility
• Average cost of debt remained stable at 2.5% and interest coverage ratio at a healthy 4.4 times
• Completed almost 100% of refinancing requirements in 2016, and maintained well-staggered debt maturity profile with weighted average term to expiry at a healthy 3.7 years
• Almost 100% of income from Australia hedged up till the third quarter of 2016 ("3Q 2016")

Key Portfolio Highlights
• Concluded a total of 114 leases, equivalent to approximately 1.6 million sf (attributable space of approximately 800,000 sf) of prime office space in 2015, bringing overall portfolio occupancy to a high of 99.3%
• Of the total new leases signed during the year, half were from tenants who were new to Keppel REIT's portfolio, one quarter from tenants new to Singapore and the remaining one quarter were expansions by existing tenants
• Approximately 30% (32 leases) or 480,000 sf (attributable space of approximately 222,000 sf) of space was committed in 4Q 2015
• Tenants from the telecommunications, media and technology ("TMT") sector accounted for half of the new leases signed during the quarter
• Achieved high tenant retention rate of 90% as at end-2015, and positive rent reversion averaging 13% for all new and renewed office leases in Singapore
• For leases expiring in 2016, the Manager is already in advanced negotiations with these tenants and is likely to achieve high retention
• For leases expiring in 2017, the Manager is also proactively engaging these tenants and is likely to renew most of these leases as the majority of these tenants are in their first renewal cycle
• Approximately 75% of total leases not due for renewal till 2018 and beyond, when limited new office supply is expected
• The Government of Western Australia (WA) commenced its 25-year lease at the office tower on the Old Treasury Building site in Perth in November 2015
• Announced divestment of interest in 77 King Street in Sydney for A$160 million or S$160 million, which is approximately 40% and 27% above the original purchase price and latest valuation respectively

Comments :-

1) Distributable Income grew, Gearing reduced, and high portfolio occupancy - all seemed good.
2) Since it's Keppel REIT, I would have some confidence on what they said about the Manager being likely to achieve high retention. If Bijan's gang says this, I'd think that they will have a revision later on,.... biggrin.gif
3) 75% or more leases will be up for renewal from 2018 when supply for office space lowers down,... good timing...huh ??  biggrin.gif So, not much lease renewal risks for Keppel REIT.

Looks like everything is GOOD ! Really ah ?????

Anybody holding Keppel REIT here ?
*
i have Keppel Reit ... at very high price....


TSHansel
post Jan 19 2016, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 18 2016, 08:07 PM)
i have Keppel Reit ... at very high price....
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Based on yesterday's results, it looks okay. Just wait for the signal to average down. If you do TA, form your opinions and get ready. Otherwise, wait for others to signal out.
elea88
post Jan 19 2016, 12:34 PM

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Singtel continues decline... now 3.45

m1 even CD continues to dipped.
prophetjul
post Jan 19 2016, 12:45 PM

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Fished some Viva at 0.67......
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post Jan 19 2016, 01:14 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 19 2016, 12:34 PM)
Singtel continues decline... now 3.45

m1 even CD continues to dipped.
*
Singtel :-

Assuming the January payout stands at SGD0.068 per share (as it has been since 2010), and;
Assuming the August payout goes to SGD0.100 per share,

the yield will stand at 4.86%, for a price of SGD3.45. Singtel has payouts in January,... not easy to find a dividend counter which has payouts in January,...payouts of twice a year.

M1 Ltd :-

Assuming the August payout = SGD0.07 per share and the April payout goes to SGD0.071 per share, the yield will stand at 5.64% for a price of SGD2.50. Payouts are of twice a year.

M1 has a higher chance of pushing the yield up above 6.00% as the price dips further.

TSHansel
post Jan 19 2016, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 19 2016, 12:45 PM)
Fished some Viva at 0.67......
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Aren't you concerned about the increasing warehouse space this year and the next, which may cause a glut, leading to further rental compression ?
TSHansel
post Jan 19 2016, 01:27 PM

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My signal gravitates towards catching the ride up a little later rather than trying to fish the bottom which may result in going in a little too early.

Edited grammar errors.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 19 2016, 01:28 PM
TSHansel
post Jan 19 2016, 03:14 PM

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A breather today, rebounds seen in KepCorp, the three SG Banks and other counters. So,...no game today !

Thanks to the 4Q and full year 2015 GDP numbers and other related numbers released by China at 10am this morning.

Hoping SG equities will resume selloff tomorrow.
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post Jan 19 2016, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 19 2016, 12:34 PM)
Singtel continues decline... now 3.45

m1 even CD continues to dipped.
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fortunate i dumped last week. sweat.gif
yck1987
post Jan 19 2016, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 19 2016, 03:14 PM)
A breather today, rebounds seen in KepCorp, the three SG Banks and other counters. So,...no game today !

Thanks to the 4Q and full year 2015 GDP numbers and other related numbers released by China at 10am this morning.

Hoping SG equities will resume selloff tomorrow.
*
oil counters all up so much! noble,sci, kep corp
TSHansel
post Jan 19 2016, 04:27 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 19 2016, 04:12 PM)
oil counters all up so much! noble,sci, kep corp
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Yeah,.. but I see that all are up, with the biggest percentages enjoyed by O&G counters. But I think KepCorp will drop backby tomorrow,... Sete Brazil has an important mtg on Thursday....
yck1987
post Jan 19 2016, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 19 2016, 04:27 PM)
Yeah,.. but I see that all are up, with the biggest percentages enjoyed by O&G counters. But I think KepCorp will drop backby tomorrow,... Sete Brazil has an important mtg on Thursday....
*
I will wait for oil price factor to be clear out first before my next enter. icon_idea.gif

P/S I have two telco counters drop today, M1 and Singtel ohmy.gif

This post has been edited by yck1987: Jan 19 2016, 05:16 PM
prophetjul
post Jan 19 2016, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 19 2016, 01:15 PM)
Aren't you concerned about the increasing warehouse space this year and the next, which may cause a glut, leading to further rental compression ?
*
Short term yes. Think all S reits will face rental compression.
But longer term at 67 cents should be good.
TSHansel
post Jan 19 2016, 06:18 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 19 2016, 05:14 PM)
I will wait for oil price factor to be clear out first before my next enter.  icon_idea.gif

P/S I have two telco counters drop today, M1 and Singtel  ohmy.gif
*
Hi yck,.. it's okay for the drops in the two telcos. The DPUs should be quite reliable for telcos, at least historically,... look at my conservative analysis a few posts back,...
TSHansel
post Jan 19 2016, 06:25 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 19 2016, 05:29 PM)
Short term yes.  Think all S reits will face rental compression.
But longer term at 67 cents should be good.
*
Not all,... from my current holdings, I can see that my healthcare REITs and the sole data centre REIT are still holding-up well in terms of rentals, and still have their rental terms steady and not having any re-negotiation. The occupancy rate has not dropped too.

It would be pointless for a REIT to stand hard on imposing its rental rate, and in the end brings about a decrease in occupancy rate, or, for Industrial REITs, causing the Master Tenant to move out, having to convert to being multi-tenanted ! Multi-tenancy increases property expenses, causing a severe drop in net property income.
TSHansel
post Jan 19 2016, 06:27 PM

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Keppel Corp and its multiple business segments, contributing to the communities where they do business in. Keppel Corp should survive in times of low oil price.... :-

Keppel Land China conferred Top 10 ASEAN Companies in China Award by China-ASEAN Business Council

It is the only company that has been awarded the accolade for four consecutive years.

Keppel Land China Limited (Keppel Land China) has been conferred the Top 10 ASEAN Companies in China award by the China-ASEAN Business Council (CABC) today. The Award honours model ASEAN companies which have achieved business success and contributed positively to the local Chinese communities they operate in.
TSHansel
post Jan 19 2016, 07:27 PM

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Reporting for the Financial Year ended 2015 for Keppel Telecommunications and Transportation :-

Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation Ltd Unaudited Results For The Financial Year Ended 31 December 2015

The Directors of Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation Ltd advise the following results of the Company and of the Group for the fourth quarter and financial year ended 31 December 2015.

These figures have not been audited.


FY2015 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS

1. Revenue was lower by 11% to $200.6 million.

2. The divestment of assets in 2014 comprising mainly sale of data centre assets to Keppel DC REIT contributed $186.4 million to the Group's 2014 net profit attributable to shareholders. Excluding the divestment gains in 2014, net profit attributable to shareholders was higher by $31.3 million at $91.5 million.

3. Earnings per share was 16.5 cents.

4. Net asset value per ordinary share increased by 2% from $1.27 per share to $1.30 per share.

Comments :-

1) The sale of the Data Centre assets to Keppel DC REIT (KDC) is actually a gain for KDC in the long run, and a loss for Keppel T&T.
2) For the Financial Year ending 2014, Keppel T&T gave out a Final Dividend of 3.5 Cts per share and A SPECIAL DIVIDEND OF 11.50 CTS PER SHARE, probably due to the divestment gain realized at a value of $186.4 Mil.
3) For the Financial Year ending 2015, Keppel T&T gave out ONLY the Final Dividend of 3.5 Cts per share. The DPS is maintained.

Edited by adding further comments :-

Taking into account the once-a-year dividend payout of 3.5 Cts of Keppel T&T, the divvy yield of this counter is only at 2.48%, at today's price of $1.41. With the current depressed ricesof many dividend-paying counters, Keppel T&T does not stand out as an attractive counter to me. FUrthermore, Keppel T&T has lost a very important assets base, namelt their data entre assets.

Keppel T&T's loss is KDC's gain. biggrin.gif - Revenue was lower at 11% in 2015.

Unitholders of KDC are actually capitalising from the loss of Keppel T&T,....

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 19 2016, 07:44 PM
prophetjul
post Jan 20 2016, 08:45 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 19 2016, 06:25 PM)
Not all,... from my current holdings, I can see that my healthcare REITs and the sole data centre REIT are still holding-up well in terms of rentals, and still have their rental terms steady and not having any re-negotiation. The occupancy rate has not dropped too.

It would be pointless for a REIT to stand hard on imposing its rental rate, and in the end brings about a decrease in occupancy rate, or, for Industrial REITs, causing the Master Tenant to move out, having to convert to being multi-tenanted ! Multi-tenancy increases property expenses, causing a severe drop in net property income.
*
Healthcare tends to do better as far as tenancy is concerned.
However their yields tend to be already compressed.
So its a matter of higher yields facing potential compression or lower yields being bit more stable. A choice.
So i am thinking at present 9.5%, maybe i may end up with 7.5 to 8%....compared with say First presently approx 7%.
There is guarantee that this will not compress. So a matter of choice
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post Jan 20 2016, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 19 2016, 06:25 PM)
Not all,... from my current holdings, I can see that my healthcare REITs and the sole data centre REIT are still holding-up well in terms of rentals, and still have their rental terms steady and not having any re-negotiation. The occupancy rate has not dropped too.

It would be pointless for a REIT to stand hard on imposing its rental rate, and in the end brings about a decrease in occupancy rate, or, for Industrial REITs, causing the Master Tenant to move out, having to convert to being multi-tenanted ! Multi-tenancy increases property expenses, causing a severe drop in net property income.
*
what healthcare reit u having?
TSHansel
post Jan 20 2016, 12:04 PM

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Good morning forummers,...

OUr Monetary Authority of Sgp (MAS) is responding to threats by other South East Asia Gov'ts to rollout better taxation incentives ! This is more applicable to First REIT which is now toying with the idea of delisting from our SGX and relisting in the Jakarta Stock Exchange.

http://sbr.com.sg/financial-services/news/...ng-tax-incentiv

Take a bet on First REIT,.... it's time to capitalise on the strength of investing in an economy that cares about her investors.

Thank you, MAS, for responding to our needs.....
TSHansel
post Jan 20 2016, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 20 2016, 08:45 AM)
Healthcare tends to do better as far as tenancy is concerned.
However their yields tend to be already compressed.
So its a matter of higher yields facing potential compression or lower yields being bit more stable. A choice.
So i am thinking at present 9.5%, maybe i may end up with 7.5 to 8%....compared with say First presently approx 7%.
There is guarantee that this will not compress. So a matter of choice
*
Thank you, prophet for your quality reply,... nod.gif

For me, I look at DPU for now, and DPU is affected by external economic factors, among which are rental compression and occupancy rates. I mentioned in an earlier post that for the healthcare sector in general, the DPU is quite resilient, AND I did not talk about the yield. Why ?

Because to me, yield is based on a formula that takes into account the price of the REIT. If the DPU is resilient, then I start to hope for two things in my investment journey :-

1) the economy goes down and the institutions are forced to sell due to their internal policies, after which, the price will be pressed down.

2) the DPU continues to remain resilient even under bad economic conditions, for whch I have to observe very closely, and to attend AGMs, and to attend talks, and to debate in this forum,... biggrin.gif

If I get positive responses to the above two things, then I know that my yield will TAKE CARE OF ITSELF, if I buy-in to those healthcare counters. Talking about guarantee or not, it is not possible to offer such commitments due to the ever-changing environment. We use other tactics to forward an effect of 'guarantee' to the success of our, in this case, REIT investments.
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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 20 2016, 11:55 AM)
what healthcare reit u having?
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First REIT and Parkway Life REIT in the SGX.
TSHansel
post Jan 20 2016, 12:26 PM

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A bit of tips for this afternoon,... prices should be quite acceptable for loading-up partially when the SG Banks have reached the following levels :-

1) OCBC -7.50

2) DBS - 14.00

3) UOB - 16.50
prophetjul
post Jan 20 2016, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 20 2016, 12:16 PM)
Thank you, prophet for your quality reply,... nod.gif

For me, I look at DPU for now, and DPU is affected by external economic factors, among which are rental compression and occupancy rates. I mentioned in an earlier post that for the healthcare sector in general, the DPU is quite resilient, AND I did not talk about the yield. Why ?

Because to me, yield is based on a formula that takes into account the price of the REIT. If the DPU is resilient, then I start to hope for two things in my investment journey :-

1) the economy goes down and the institutions are forced to sell due to their internal policies, after which, the price will be pressed down.

2) the DPU continues to remain resilient even under bad economic conditions, for whch I have to observe very closely, and to attend AGMs, and to attend talks, and to debate in this forum,... biggrin.gif

If I get positive responses to the above two things, then I know that my yield will TAKE CARE OF ITSELF, if I buy-in to those healthcare counters. Talking about guarantee or not, it is not possible to offer such commitments due to the ever-changing environment. We use other tactics to forward an effect of 'guarantee' to the success of our, in this case, REIT investments.
*
Good points. However, yield is important. Otherwise we would be looking at growth stocks instead or just leave in the money in FDs.
So in essence Reits is a compromise between growth and yield. Yield reflects the price you are paying for such DPU that you expect.

On point 1. Therefore it's important to look at the quality of the properties as well.

On point 2. Even health care may be affected in bad times. No guarantees.
TSHansel
post Jan 20 2016, 01:42 PM

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All I have said are repeated by RHB Analysts in article below, published yesterday, but reached me this afternoon. Earlier, I did not know the Book Value of the O&M segment though,... now I do :-

The price rout has gone too far, analysts say.

Investors have shunned Keppel Corp’s shares ever since the oil price crash began. As though adding insult to injury, the stock took a fresh beating last week on news of Sete Brasil’s looming bankruptcy. However, analysts from RHB Research noted that the steep decline may have finally gone too far.

RHB argued that at current valuations, it appears that Keppel’s offshore and marine (O&M) division is now valued below zero. RHB says that despite its current troubles, Keppel’s O&M segment still has a value of $5.56 per share.

Apart from that, RHB said that the absence of rig orders does not mean the absence of work for Keppel. The group can still snatch contracts for LNG vessels, floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) conversions, fixed platforms, other specialised vessels, and vessel repairs.

“We expect the O&M division to continue generating cash and delivering ROEs well above the cost of equity. Even if O&M earnings halve this year, a 20% ROE still deserves a healthy premium to book value,” said RHB.

“The market is treating Keppel like a pure play on oil & gas, ignoring all the other divisions in this diversified conglomerate. Key short-term risk is a potential Sete Brasil bankruptcy, with a 40% impact on the orderbook, but this looks largely priced in,” the report added.

Further comments : At a Book vAlue of $5.56 per share, KepCorp is now trading at a heavy discount to this Book Value. Bear in mind that $5.56 is the Book Value for ONLY the O&M segment, and is not inclusive of the other,... three or four business segments of KepCorp.

BUY when the your targetted price hits.


TSHansel
post Jan 20 2016, 02:08 PM

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I looked at my Stocks Radar today, and noticed that all, practically all counters are in the red, with 2 or 3 being unchanged or not traded,... AND ONE counter that has appreciated by 3.4%, and is the sole green counter today on my radar screen.

The counter is Sembcorp Marine. The reason fro this is as here :-

January 19, 2016:

Singapore’s Sembcorp Industries Ltd may inject funds into Sembcorp Marine Ltd or buy full control of the drilling rig builder to replenish finances strained by a collapse in oil prices, people familiar with the matter said.

Sembcorp Industries – almost half-owned by state investor Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd – is the parent of Sembcorp Marine which analysts said is at risk of writing off assets and cutting its full-year dividend.

“It’s quite clear that financial support has to come in and a take-private is one of the easier options, but ultimately there needs to be a long-term solution,” said one of the people, who were not authorised to speak publicly on the matter and so declined to be identified.

Sembcorp Industries owns 61 per cent of Sembcorp Marine which services an oil industry plagued by oversupply. The plunge in oil prices to multi-year lows has led to a drop in orders for rigs and cancelled contracts.

Sembcorp Industries could therefore benefit from selling the rig builder and focusing on its profitable utilities business, analysts said.

One buyer could be larger rig-building rival Keppel Corp Ltd, 21 per cent owned by Temasek.

“The natural buyer and a merger candidate clearly is the offshore marine business of Keppel,” said one banker, who declined to be identified.

“But the issue with any combination necessarily is that the upside there is cost-cutting.”

Bankers involved in the sector said a single domestic champion could make sense to counter competition from China and South Korea. However, the likely option is for Sembcorp Industries to take full control of its subsidiary.

Sembcorp Industries, Sembcorp Marine and Temasek declined to comment. Keppel, which is due to report earnings on Thursday, also declined to comment.

Order Cancellations

Since the beginning of the millennium, Singapore’s two rig builders have risen to dominate the global market for jackup rigs, which drill in depths of as much as 122 metres (400 feet). Sembcorp Industries and Keppel discussed a merger in 2001.

But with the drop in oil prices, Singapore’s US$10 billion rig building industry faces a dearth of new orders, while some orders are at risk of cancellation.

For instance, the bulk of orders at both Sembcorp Marine and Keppel are from Sete Brasil, an indebted affiliate of state-run Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras. Sete Brasil has paid neither since late 2014.

Both Sembcorp Marine and Keppel are trading at their lowest valuations in at least 13 years, Thomson Reuters data showed.
yck1987
post Jan 20 2016, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 20 2016, 12:16 PM)
First REIT and Parkway Life REIT in the SGX.
*
I have Plife reits too, the only green counter in my portfolio today shakehead.gif


prophetjul
post Jan 20 2016, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 20 2016, 01:42 PM)
All I have said are repeated by RHB Analysts in article below, published yesterday, but reached me this afternoon. Earlier, I did not know the Book Value of the O&M segment though,... now I do :-

The price rout has gone too far, analysts say.

Investors have shunned Keppel Corp’s shares ever since the oil price crash began. As though adding insult to injury, the stock took a fresh beating last week on news of Sete Brasil’s looming bankruptcy. However, analysts from RHB Research noted that the steep decline may have finally gone too far.

RHB argued that at current valuations, it appears that Keppel’s offshore and marine (O&M) division is now valued below zero. RHB says that despite its current troubles, Keppel’s O&M segment still has a value of $5.56 per share.

Apart from that, RHB said that the absence of rig orders does not mean the absence of work for Keppel. The group can still snatch contracts for LNG vessels, floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) conversions, fixed platforms, other specialised vessels, and vessel repairs.

“We expect the O&M division to continue generating cash and delivering ROEs well above the cost of equity. Even if O&M earnings halve this year, a 20% ROE still deserves a healthy premium to book value,” said RHB.

“The market is treating Keppel like a pure play on oil & gas, ignoring all the other divisions in this diversified conglomerate. Key short-term risk is a potential Sete Brasil bankruptcy, with a 40% impact on the orderbook, but this looks largely priced in,” the report added.

Further comments : At a Book vAlue of $5.56 per share, KepCorp is now trading at a heavy discount to this Book Value. Bear in mind that $5.56 is the Book Value for ONLY the O&M segment, and is not inclusive of the other,... three or four business segments of KepCorp.

BUY when the your targetted price hits.
*
See those in bold? tells you this ANALyst know squat.
These are the vessels most hurt by low crude prices. No one is going to invest in these vessels when oil price is low and you have Onshore facilities churning out 1.5mil barrels in excess of demand daily.


TSHansel
post Jan 20 2016, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 20 2016, 02:40 PM)
I have Plife reits too, the only green counter in my portfolio today  shakehead.gif
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PLife seems to be holding-up well,... FY2015 reporting on Jan 26th., 2016,... we can get a better idea of its resilience from there....
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post Jan 20 2016, 03:08 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 20 2016, 12:38 PM)
Good points. However, yield is important. Otherwise we would be looking at growth stocks instead or just leave in the money in FDs.
So in essence Reits is a compromise between growth and yield. Yield reflects the price you are paying for such DPU that you expect.

On point 1. Therefore it's important to look at the quality of the properties as well.

On point 2. Even health care may be affected in bad times. No guarantees.
*
I agree with both of your points 1. and 2., hence, the close observation that I need to put in in times like this,... the quality of properties will decide if the REIT has pricing power and is able to hold its rent or increase rent in times of economic slowdown. Being in the healthcare industry is certainly advantageous in times like this, but again other factors may hamper the performance too, even if the entity happens to be in a defensive sector.

As for yield,... I do agree that it is important. However, the way that I look at things is : I don't focus on the yield of a counter in a direct sense, meaning, I don't hope for the yield to be high. What I hoped for is for the DPU to be resilient and for the market-value to be mis-priced. If these two attributes can be achieved in a positive sense, then, like I said earlier,... the yield will take care of itself, ie it will be high enough for me to buy-in.

It does not mean that if someone does not follow the yield path, then he should look at growth stocks and not value stocks anymore. An investor can look at an instrument in many ways.

Perhaps we are looking at things from different angles here, meaning you will start with the yield, then work your way downwards to the DPU, because like you said, your yield reflects the price you pay for a particular DPU.

For myself,... I focus hard on the DPU and the market environment which hits. The yield will take care of itself.

TSHansel
post Jan 20 2016, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 20 2016, 02:48 PM)
See those in bold?  tells you this ANALyst know squat.
These are the vessels most hurt by low crude prices. No one is going to invest in these vessels when oil price is low and you have Onshore facilities churning out 1.5mil barrels in excess of demand daily.
*
Well, the analyst did mention too that even if O&M earnings halve this year, a 20% ROE still deserves a healthy premium to book value. I suspect they still have remaining activities on other rigs besides the ones contracted with Sete Brazil, since they always mentioned that they will still be busy for the next two years.

KepCorp's reporting is on coming Thursday at 5.30 pm. Let's see what outlook that they have for this year, and if they will support the analyst's theory that there are still FPSO contracts out there, and if these contracts can be 'snatched' from competitors. Yes, I would agree that these high-value contracts should be almost none in the world by now. Maybe the ones that are available are more towards repair and refurbishment projects for these rigs, in preparation for the upswing in oil price.

Does your 1.5Mil barrels of excess oil daily include the contribution from Iran soon ?


prophetjul
post Jan 20 2016, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 20 2016, 03:18 PM)
Well, the analyst did mention too that even if O&M earnings halve this year, a 20% ROE still deserves a healthy premium to book value. I suspect they still have remaining activities on other rigs besides the ones contracted with Sete Brazil, since they always mentioned that they will still be busy for the next two years.

KepCorp's reporting is on coming Thursday at 5.30 pm. Let's see what outlook that they have for this year, and if they will support the analyst's theory that there are still FPSO contracts out there, and if these contracts can be 'snatched' from competitors. Yes, I would agree that these high-value contracts should be almost none in the world by now. Maybe the ones that are available are more towards repair and refurbishment projects for these rigs, in preparation for the upswing in oil price.

Does your 1.5Mil barrels of excess oil daily include the contribution from Iran soon ?
*
First of all, the first thing to get hit in a low oil price reversal is the exploration sector. This means drilling rigs in general. If you happen to go to Labuan there must be more than 30 drilling rigs laid up there.

Busy for next 2 years? Sure thats what they said (to the media)? biggrin.gif
Being busy in other things maybe like maintenance works. But these are low margin activities.
Certainly not offshore facilities like FPSOs, jackets, topsides,etc.
The projection for FPSOs is only like 2 in this region! In 2014, Keppel was like having 10 to 12 conversions in SG alone at a time!

Yes 1.5mil includes the 0.5mil from Iran. Saudi is doing 1mil excess daily now. All these are ONshore cheap production cost oil.

So in essence, the analysts have got the O n G fundamentally wrong.

AVFAN
post Jan 21 2016, 02:41 AM

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whoever made money with stocks in the last year or so can pat themselves on the back.

QUOTE
MSCI global stock market index hits bear market
The MSCI All-Country World Index, which measures major developed and emerging markets, fell into a bear market Wednesday, with its decline from early last year now totaling more than 20 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/20/msci-global...ear-market.html

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 21 2016, 02:41 AM)
whoever made money with stocks in the last year or so can pat themselves on the back.
*
Pat yourself on the back and say " Good job, all the money you've earned is now contributing back to the market." flex.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 21 2016, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(MoneyMaker prince @ Jan 21 2016, 08:19 AM)
Pat yourself on the back and say " Good job, all the money you've earned is now contributing back to the market."  flex.gif
*
Not really, overall, myportfolio is very much still in the green. What about all the dividends that I have collected last year ?
TSHansel
post Jan 21 2016, 12:20 PM

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Just returned from the FY2015 AGM for Frasers Centrepoint Trust - overall,... very positive, and very confident. Worst performance last year was Bedok Point, and the mgr has plans to turn this around.

No mention at all of the current economic situation possibly pulling-down her performance for FY2016.

BUY !
yck1987
post Jan 21 2016, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 21 2016, 12:20 PM)
Just returned from the FY2015 AGM for Frasers Centrepoint Trust - overall,... very positive, and very confident. Worst performance last year was Bedok Point, and the mgr has plans to turn this around.

No mention at all of the current economic situation possibly pulling-down her performance for FY2016.

BUY !
*
My last purchase price was 1.815, still waiting the price to go down further a bit to add more.

I believe FCT is still a solid choice. wink.gif
yck1987
post Jan 21 2016, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 21 2016, 12:15 PM)
Not really, overall, myportfolio is very much still in the green. What about all the dividends that I have collected last year ?
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wow, good for you. How long was your portfolio? more than 5 years or 10 years already?
Vector88
post Jan 21 2016, 06:32 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 21 2016, 02:41 AM)
whoever made money with stocks in the last year or so can pat themselves on the back.
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I think if one started in SGX 3 yrs ago, overall should be still positive
AVFAN
post Jan 21 2016, 06:52 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Jan 21 2016, 06:32 PM)
I think if one started in SGX 3 yrs ago, overall should be still positive
*
that, should be.

i entered sgx 2 yrs ago but only reits, still positive.

definitely very positive in rm terms. tongue.gif

the issue was 2015-now.

whether regular stocks or reits, i doubt anything bought in that period is positive at this time.

same with usa, hk, china, bursa stocks.

esp bad with oil/energy/commodities stocks.




the question is will 2016 be just as bad?
TSHansel
post Jan 21 2016, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 21 2016, 06:02 PM)
wow, good for you. How long was your portfolio? more than 5 years or 10 years already?
*
YCK,...yes, i.815 is a very good price. You should be in the green very much now for FCT. Congrats,... thumbup.gif

Unfortunately, for me, I entered last year, and am currently in the red for FCT. But I'm not that worried though, I'll just wait for the price to dip, and to target properly before averaging down.

Yes, as to what AV said, chances are those counters bought last year would be in the red now,... spot-on,... I'm a very good example of this 'red',... blush.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 21 2016, 07:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 21 2016, 06:52 PM)
that, should be.

i entered sgx 2 yrs ago but only reits, still positive.

definitely very positive in rm terms. tongue.gif

the issue was 2015-now.

whether regular stocks or reits, i doubt anything bought in that period is positive at this time.

same with usa, hk, china, bursa stocks.

esp bad with oil/energy/commodities stocks.
the question is will 2016 be just as bad?
*
AV,.. errm,.. not all are in the red,... YCK, for one, bought at very good prices for FCT,... he is in the green now for FCT. I observed that FCT's price is very resilient, it does not drop much. Really... no chance for me to average down these few months.

Well,...I hoped 2016 will be bad too,... so that I have a chance to average down. smile.gif Otherwise, I'd have unrealised capital losses in my books,...
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post Jan 21 2016, 07:55 PM

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Based on my tracking since I first researched on and studied this counter, the divvy payout for the previous corresponding quarter in 2014 was 2.75 Cts per unit. For the same quarter in 2015, the divvy has been announced on this evening to be 2.87 Cts per unit, hence, the DPU growth is 4.4%, y-o-y.

......even during the tumultuous times of 2015, so,...what the board claimed this morning, that the economic conditions in 2015 has not affected FCT is proven to be true. The DPU has even grown for the same corresponding period compared to 2014.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 21 2016, 07:58 PM
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post Jan 21 2016, 08:20 PM

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KepCorp's report for FY2015 this evening, in summary :-

1. 4Q 2015 Net Profit down 44% to S$405 million, compared to 4Q 2014's S$726 million.

2. FY 2015 Net Profit down 19% to S$1,525 million, compared to FY 2014's S$1,885 million.

3. Earnings per Share was 84.0 cents, down 19% from FY 2014's 103.8 cents.

4. Annualised Return on Equity of 14.2%.

5. FY 2015 Economic Value Added decreased to S$648 million from S$1,778 million YoY.

6. Cash outflow of S$694 million.

7. Net gearing was 0.53x.

8. Total cash dividends of 34.0 cents per share for FY 2015.

Okay ----- the dividend for the full year 2015 has been slashed by 10 Cts from the one for the full year 2014. The full year divvy payout for KepCorp is only 34 Cts for FY2015.

Against the last traded price of $4.91 this evening, the yield against a full year DPU of 34 Cts gives a yield of 6.925. If the rice drops further, this yield will increase further. But the lingering worry in the back of the head remains as : is the DPU of KepCorp sustainable moving forward ? Is the DPU resilient ? The price of KepCorp may retreat further later on, BUT, if the DPU follows suit, then the yield will be hit if one buys too early.

On the metrics front, ALL measurements are DOWN compared to 2014. However, for myself personally,... I will remain confident of KepCorp. I will not sell,....
TSHansel
post Jan 22 2016, 10:27 AM

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Breather today,... STI up by 1.69% when I last saw on the running screen at DBS HQ...
Vector88
post Jan 22 2016, 06:01 PM

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RM macam makan steroid today, 1SGD now 2.999MYR..what happened?
AVFAN
post Jan 22 2016, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Jan 22 2016, 06:01 PM)
RM macam makan steroid today, 1SGD now 2.999MYR..what happened?
*
SRR cut.
Vector88
post Jan 22 2016, 10:24 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 22 2016, 07:00 PM)
SRR cut.
*
Can enligthen what is that going to do with MYR?
AVFAN
post Jan 22 2016, 10:33 PM

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QUOTE(Vector88 @ Jan 22 2016, 10:24 PM)
Can enligthen what is that going to do with MYR?
*
i saw on bloomberg... srr improves liquidity, confidence, fx inflow, buy mgs, rm appr.

may be temp or limited effect.

well, some disagree, so... u can check... biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 22 2016, 10:36 PM
yck1987
post Jan 25 2016, 11:34 AM

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my banking stocks rally flex.gif
TSHansel
post Jan 25 2016, 01:54 PM

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After that dismal results for 2015 last Thursday,... Keppel Corp is now taking steps to lower headcount expenses by consolidating all its recurring income businesses, incl that of our favourite Keppel REIT and our Keppel DC REIT, into one entity called Keppel Capital,... slated to be up and running by the second half of this year. Keppel DC REIT has been running down just befre this new was released :-

Keppel plans to consolidate its interests in business trust, REIT and fund management under Keppel Capital and grow its asset management business.

In a major restructuring exercise to grow the contribution from its Investment Division, Keppel Corporation Limited (Keppel Corporation) plans to consolidate its interests in business trust management, real estate investment trust (REIT) management and fund management businesses (collectively, "Asset Management") under Keppel Capital Holdings Pte. Ltd. (Keppel Capital), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Corporation.

Asset Management is an important part of Keppel Corporation's strategy and business. Keppel Corporation currently has four subsidiaries ("Subsidiaries") in Asset Management, namely Keppel Infrastructure Fund Management Pte. Ltd. (the Trustee-Manager of Keppel Infrastructure Trust), Keppel DC REIT Management Pte. Ltd. (the Manager of Keppel DC REIT), Keppel REIT Management Limited (the Manager of Keppel REIT), and Alpha Investment Partners Limited (a fund manager) (Alpha).

Mr Loh Chin Hua, Chief Executive Officer of Keppel Corporation, said, "Creating and developing high quality real estate and infrastructure assets as well as stabilizing and monetizing them to generate strong cash flow and recurring income are integral parts of Keppel's business model. Keppel's asset management businesses currently manage S$26 billion of quality assets and contributed S$60 million of profits in 2015. The consolidation under Keppel Capital is part of our continuing plan to grow our assets under management and expand our capital platform for co-investing."

The proposed consolidation will benefit the Keppel Group by strengthening the Group's capital recycling platform and ability to make prudent and timely investments with an expanded capital base and without relying solely on its balance sheet. It will also improve the performance of the Subsidiaries and the funds, REITs and business trusts that they manage through centralising certain non-regulated support functions and creating a larger platform which will enhance recruitment and retention of talent, and sharing of best practices. This will improve the returns to the Keppel Group, and to other investors and unitholders, from their investments in the funds and unitholdings in the REITs and business trust. The proposed consolidation will also improve the Group's stable, recurring income from management fees. Keppel Corporation intends to consolidate its interests in these Subsidiaries and report them under a new consolidated reporting segment as part of its investments arm.

The proposed consolidation is only in relation to the change in shareholding of Alpha, the Trustee-Manager of Keppel Infrastructure Trust, the Manager of Keppel DC REIT and the Manager of Keppel REIT. It does not change the unitholdings in the REITs and business trust or investments in the funds.

Ms Christina Tan will be appointed the CEO-designate of Keppel Capital. Ms Tan is presently the Managing Director of Alpha. Ms Tan possesses over 20 years of experience in investing and fund management spanning the US, Europe and Asia, and has been with Alpha since its inception in 2003. Under her leadership, Alpha has grown its assets under management to over S$12 billion today.

The proposed consolidation is subject to board approval and (if required) shareholder and/or unitholder approval of the relevant Keppel Group entities, as well as the approval of the Monetary Authority of Singapore and other relevant regulatory approvals. Subject to obtaining the relevant approvals, Keppel Corporation aims to complete the proposed consolidation by the second half of 2016.

After the completion of the proposed consolidation, Keppel Corporation may consider increasing its scope to include regulated activities relating to investments and asset management. This increase in scope would be undertaken after obtaining the necessary licences and approvals from the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

TSHansel
post Jan 25 2016, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 22 2016, 10:33 PM)
i saw on bloomberg... srr improves liquidity, confidence, fx inflow, buy mgs, rm appr.

may be temp or limited effect.

well, some disagree, so... u can check... biggrin.gif
*
So I see that the lowering of the SRR and the improving oil price seems to have strengthened our MYR. But has it occurred to any forummer here that if our Gov't lowers the SRR, our banks' positions will be weaker, and if there is any bank run, nobody will be able to save our banks ?

All over the world, there are schemes to strengthen bank positions, called RRRs, Basel-III, etc,... but now our Govt has lust lowered the deposit ratios of our banks,... just to inject more money supply into our mkt ??????? blink.gif blink.gif

Will our FDs be under jeopardy, moving forward, if the economy weakens further and oil price drops further ???
AVFAN
post Jan 25 2016, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 25 2016, 02:00 PM)
So I see that the lowering of the SRR and the improving oil price seems to have strengthened our MYR. But has it occurred to any forummer here that if our Gov't lowers the SRR, our banks' positions will be weaker, and if there is any bank run, nobody will be able to save our banks ?

All over the world, there are schemes to strengthen bank positions, called RRRs, Basel-III, etc,... but now our Govt has lust lowered the deposit ratios of our banks,... just to inject more money supply into our mkt ???????  blink.gif  blink.gif

Will our FDs be under jeopardy, moving forward, if the economy weakens further and oil price drops further ???
*
The net effect is a combination of factors.

I think the srr cut helps liquidity, boost credit markets, spending, confidence, foreigners bought mgs. All that when oil price rebounded.

Do that when oil is dropping, u know what will happen.

If the ruble can gain >3% in the same period, the rm can gain too.


FDs... No change as of now, I believe.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 25 2016, 02:19 PM
TSHansel
post Jan 25 2016, 03:08 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 25 2016, 02:19 PM)
The net effect is a combination of factors.

I think the srr cut helps liquidity, boost credit markets, spending, confidence, foreigners bought mgs. All that when oil price rebounded.

Do that when oil is dropping, u know what will happen.

If the ruble can gain >3% in the same period, the rm can gain too.
FDs... No change as of now, I believe.
*
Hi AV,... I agree with all that you have commented.

But you have not commented on the safety of our funds in our local banks. Don't you think that would be a bigger exposure to bank depositors in this country, with the banks' deposit requirements having been reduced ? Or are we saying that there is always PIDM there to save us if our banks start to get into trouble, and we having no need to worry about the capital requirements of our local banks ?
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post Jan 25 2016, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 25 2016, 03:08 PM)
Hi AV,... I agree with all that you have commented.

But you have not commented on the safety of our funds in our local banks. Don't you think that would be a bigger exposure to bank depositors in this country, with the banks' deposit requirements having been reduced ? Or are we saying that there is always PIDM there to save us if our banks start to get into trouble, and we having no need to worry about the capital requirements of our local banks ?
*
The major local banks are safe... They are well capitalize. Just don't keep all in one! biggrin.gif



I am waiting for Jan 28, see what comes out of budget revision.

Plus next GDP, inflation data.

Not expecting much good news, really.
TSHansel
post Jan 25 2016, 06:32 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 20 2016, 03:18 PM)
Well, the analyst did mention too that even if O&M earnings halve this year, a 20% ROE still deserves a healthy premium to book value. I suspect they still have remaining activities on other rigs besides the ones contracted with Sete Brazil, since they always mentioned that they will still be busy for the next two years.

KepCorp's reporting is on coming Thursday at 5.30 pm. Let's see what outlook that they have for this year, and if they will support the analyst's theory that there are still FPSO contracts out there, and if these contracts can be 'snatched' from competitors. Yes, I would agree that these high-value contracts should be almost none in the world by now. Maybe the ones that are available are more towards repair and refurbishment projects for these rigs, in preparation for the upswing in oil price.

Does your 1.5Mil barrels of excess oil daily include the contribution from Iran soon ?

QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 20 2016, 03:55 PM)
First of all, the first thing to get hit in a low oil price reversal is the exploration sector. This means drilling rigs in general. If you happen to go to Labuan there must be more than 30 drilling rigs laid up there.

Busy for next 2 years? Sure thats what they said (to the media)?   biggrin.gif
Being busy in other things maybe like maintenance works. But these are low margin activities.
Certainly not offshore facilities like FPSOs, jackets, topsides,etc.
The projection for FPSOs is only like 2 in this region!  In 2014, Keppel was like having 10 to 12 conversions in SG alone at a time!

Yes 1.5mil includes the 0.5mil from Iran. Saudi is doing 1mil excess daily now. All these are ONshore cheap production cost oil.

So in essence, the analysts have got the O n G fundamentally wrong.
*
Well,... referring to our comments last week,... looks like there is still work for Keppel O&M !


Keppel FELS delivers first rig of the year safely and on time !

It will be the fifth KFELS B Class jackup rig to work for Gulf Drilling International.

Keppel FELS, a wholly owned subsidiary of Keppel Offshore & Marine (Keppel O&M) has delivered Halul, a KFELS B Class jackup rig, to Gulf Drilling International Ltd. (q.s.c) (GDI) of Qatar. It was completed on 21 January 2016, ten days ahead of schedule, on budget and with a perfect safety record. It is the first rig that Keppel FELS has delivered this year.

Halul is also the fifth KFELS B Class jackup rig delivered to GDI. With its continued successful partnership with Keppel FELS, GDI has renewed options for two more repeat KFELS B Class rigs for deliveries in 2018 and 2019.

Mr Wong Kok Seng, Managing Director of Keppel O&M (Offshore) and Keppel FELS, said, "We are proud to deliver another rig to GDI early and safely. This is our first delivery of the year and we are proud that even in a low oil price environment, the KFELS B Class continues to be the preferred rig in the market for its high quality, efficiency and safety.

"While there is widespread industry cautiousness, the strong relationships we have built with our long-standing customers, such as GDI, enables us to work together to deliver projects in a win-win fashion."

The KFELS B Class rigs have a strong track record for GDI. Sister rigs Dukhan and Al Zubarah are operating successfully for Qatar Petroleum while Al Khor is performing well for Shell.

Mr. Mubarak A. Al-Hajri, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of GDI, said, "We are pleased to receive the Halul ahead of schedule, enabling us to start work earlier for Qatar Petroleum. Reliability, safety, efficiency and quality are our top priorities in choosing a rig and a shipyard. Keppel FELS and the KFELS B Class design have demonstrated their strengths in these areas repeatedly. That is why we have chosen to renew our options for two more rigs with them. We are confident in the long term fundamentals of the industry and when the market recovers, we will be well-equipped to meet the demand."

Built to GDI's requirements, the jackup rig has been designed to operate in the higher ambient temperature of the Middle East. The KFELS B Class is equipped with larger spud cans for reduced bearing pressure and expands its operational coverage in more places, especially in sea beds where soft soil is predominant. The rig can drill wells through 30,000 feet with a cantilever that can skid out 70 feet from the edge of the hull to drill wells. It features offline stand building capabilities and 7,500 PSI mud pumps, with accommodation for 150 persons.

Besides newbuild rigs, Nakilat-Keppel O&M, Keppel's joint venture shipyard in Qatar, recently completed a self-propelled and self-elevating liftboat for GDI.

Edited by putting in bold my earlier points and the points in the latest update by Keppel Corp..

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 25 2016, 06:34 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 25 2016, 11:49 PM

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SG disinflation/deflation...?
QUOTE
Will be hard for equity prices to rise...

Singapore's Consumer Prices Extend Slump on Housing, Transport

Singapore’s consumer prices fell for a 14th straight month, extending the longest streak of declines in almost three decades.
Consumer prices fell 0.6 percent from a year earlier in December, data released in Singapore Monday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.7 percent decline. Core inflation, which excludes private transport and accommodation costs, accelerated to 0.3 percent last month.

“External sources of inflation are likely to remain muted, given ample supply buffers in the major commodity markets and weak global demand conditions,” the central bank and Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement. “On the domestic front, some wage cost pressures remain, but their pass-through to consumer prices will be constrained by the subdued economic growth environment.”
The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s core inflation gauge is expected to pick up gradually over 2016 as the disinflationary effects of budgetary and other one-off measures ease, according to the statement. Still, lower car prices and an expected increase in the newly-completed housing units will help cap overall prices, the authorities said.

Singapore is keeping its 2016 inflation forecast at -0.5 percent to 0.5 percent, the MAS and trade ministry said. “However, there is significant uncertainty over the outlook for average global oil prices for the year as a whole. MTI and MAS will continue to closely monitor the developments in global oil prices and assess their impact on domestic inflation.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...using-transport

prophetjul
post Jan 26 2016, 08:44 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 25 2016, 06:32 PM)
QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 20 2016, 03:18 PM)
Well, the analyst did mention too that even if O&M earnings halve this year, a 20% ROE still deserves a healthy premium to book value. I suspect they still have remaining activities on other rigs besides the ones contracted with Sete Brazil, since they always mentioned that they will still be busy for the next two years.

KepCorp's reporting is on coming Thursday at 5.30 pm. Let's see what outlook that they have for this year, and if they will support the analyst's theory that there are still FPSO contracts out there, and if these contracts can be 'snatched' from competitors. Yes, I would agree that these high-value contracts should be almost none in the world by now. Maybe the ones that are available are more towards repair and refurbishment projects for these rigs, in preparation for the upswing in oil price.

Does your 1.5Mil barrels of excess oil daily include the contribution from Iran soon ?
Well,... referring to our comments last week,... looks like there is still work for Keppel O&M !
Keppel FELS delivers first rig of the year safely and on time !

It will be the fifth KFELS B Class jackup rig to work for Gulf Drilling International.

Keppel FELS, a wholly owned subsidiary of Keppel Offshore & Marine (Keppel O&M) has delivered Halul, a KFELS B Class jackup rig, to Gulf Drilling International Ltd. (q.s.c) (GDI) of Qatar. It was completed on 21 January 2016, ten days ahead of schedule, on budget and with a perfect safety record. It is the first rig that Keppel FELS has delivered this year.

Halul is also the fifth KFELS B Class jackup rig delivered to GDI. With its continued successful partnership with Keppel FELS, GDI has renewed options for two more repeat KFELS B Class rigs for deliveries in 2018 and 2019.

Mr Wong Kok Seng, Managing Director of Keppel O&M (Offshore) and Keppel FELS, said, "We are proud to deliver another rig to GDI early and safely. This is our first delivery of the year and we are proud that even in a low oil price environment, the KFELS B Class continues to be the preferred rig in the market for its high quality, efficiency and safety.

"While there is widespread industry cautiousness, the strong relationships we have built with our long-standing customers, such as GDI, enables us to work together to deliver projects in a win-win fashion."

The KFELS B Class rigs have a strong track record for GDI. Sister rigs Dukhan and Al Zubarah are operating successfully for Qatar Petroleum while Al Khor is performing well for Shell.

Mr. Mubarak A. Al-Hajri, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of GDI, said, "We are pleased to receive the Halul ahead of schedule, enabling us to start work earlier for Qatar Petroleum. Reliability, safety, efficiency and quality are our top priorities in choosing a rig and a shipyard. Keppel FELS and the KFELS B Class design have demonstrated their strengths in these areas repeatedly. That is why we have chosen to renew our options for two more rigs with them. We are confident in the long term fundamentals of the industry and when the market recovers, we will be well-equipped to meet the demand."

Built to GDI's requirements, the jackup rig has been designed to operate in the higher ambient temperature of the Middle East. The KFELS B Class is equipped with larger spud cans for reduced bearing pressure and expands its operational coverage in more places, especially in sea beds where soft soil is predominant. The rig can drill wells through 30,000 feet with a cantilever that can skid out 70 feet from the edge of the hull to drill wells. It features offline stand building capabilities and 7,500 PSI mud pumps, with accommodation for 150 persons.

Besides newbuild rigs, Nakilat-Keppel O&M, Keppel's joint venture shipyard in Qatar, recently completed a self-propelled and self-elevating liftboat for GDI.

Edited by putting in bold my earlier points and the points in the latest update by Keppel Corp..
*
You may want to note that this is a finished work. Most of their ongoing works are likely to have been captured and accounted for in the financials.
Thats the reason i am looking at the future work projections.
TSHansel
post Jan 26 2016, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 26 2016, 08:44 AM)
You may want to note that this is a finished work. Most of their ongoing works are likely to have been captured and accounted for in the financials.
Thats the reason i am looking at the future work projections.
*
Tq prophet,... good discussion with you. The following rigs should not have been taken into account in the Earnings Statement yet. These are new orders : 'That is why we have chosen to renew our options for two more rigs with them.'
prophetjul
post Jan 26 2016, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 26 2016, 09:30 AM)
Tq prophet,... good discussion with you. The following rigs should not have been taken into account in the Earnings Statement yet. These are new orders :  'That is why we have chosen to renew our options for two more rigs with them.'
*
ok

but the contract with Sete has been accounted for. So this may cancel each other out
TSHansel
post Jan 26 2016, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 26 2016, 09:59 AM)
ok

but the contract with Sete has been accounted for. So this may cancel each other out
*
When you said the contract with Sete has been accounted for, do you mean the provision (bad debt) amounting to that $250M ? That $250M has already been taken into account in the previous Q earnings, and all-in, the total profit for FY2015 is $1.525B. So, if those two rig orders should come in from Global Drilling Investments (GDI) this year, these orders should add to the orderbook for FY2016. Hopefully, it happens.
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post Jan 26 2016, 10:49 AM

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Sometimes, it takes some effort to remember the numbers,...and if can't remember, need to search back into the reports or records,...hence, need to know where to search. One must either remember where to search, or remembers what the numbers are.

Sometimes, I just don't understand how some people are able to own 20 to 30 counters,... Strong memory power ?? Strong diligence to read reports every quarter ?
prophetjul
post Jan 26 2016, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 26 2016, 10:46 AM)
When you said the contract with Sete has been accounted for, do you mean the provision (bad debt) amounting to that $250M ? That $250M has already been taken into account in the previous Q earnings, and all-in, the total profit for FY2015 is $1.525B. So, if those two rig orders should come in from Global Drilling Investments (GDI) this year, these orders should add to the orderbook for FY2016. Hopefully, it happens.
*
Yeah. They have made some provision for the contract

QUOTE
“We had taken steps to mitigate our exposure by slowing the construction of Sete’s rigs after payments from our customer ceased over a year ago,”  Loh Chin Hua, Keppel Chief Executive Officer said.

The CEO said that of six Sete rigs, only the first two semis, which are also in the most advanced stages, have been sent to the Keppel yard in Brazil. Meanwhile, minimal work had been done on the last two semis.

Singapore’s Keppel, which had already received about US$1.3 billion from Sete, prior to Sete putting a halt to payments, is now awaiting further clarity on the situation.

In the meantime, Keppel made a provision of about S$230 million for Sete projects in 4Q 2015, “after assessing our construction progress, payment status and amounts due to our vendors amongst other areas.”


QUOTE
“We had kick started 2015 with expected deliveries of 15 drilling jack-ups; eight of these have since been pushed into 2016….The delays are not extensive, the contracts are still valid, and we are working towards delivering several of them in the early half of this year,” CEO said.

Also, the company’s CEO has cited industry reports that suggest that global exploration and production (E&P) spending could decline by 15% or more in 2016 should oil prices remain at current levels.


http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/keppels...e-rig-division/

i See that the rig owners will either postpone, delay or totally suspend their projects at this low oil price environment. So as they do this, the contracts will be minimal for this year. i see declines of more than 15% spending in the E & P sector. You should see how many rigs are laid up. When i was in Labuan in July last year, i could count at least 30 rigs laid up there.
That was July 2015. It's gotten worse
TSHansel
post Jan 26 2016, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 26 2016, 11:09 AM)
Yeah. They have made some provision for the contract
http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/keppels...e-rig-division/

i See that the rig owners will either postpone, delay or totally suspend their projects at this low oil price environment. So as they do this, the contracts will be minimal for this year. i see declines of more than 15% spending in the E & P sector. You should see how many rigs are laid up. When i was in Labuan in July last year, i could count at least 30 rigs laid up there.
That was July 2015. It's gotten worse
*
Prophet,.. tq for your good insights,... rclxms.gif And you have great observation skills,.. I'll start observing rigs too from now,... biggrin.gif
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post Jan 26 2016, 11:55 AM

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In another thread, I mentioned that the time is right to convert half of the targetted holdings into the SGD yesterday, and to convert another half today.

I converted half yesterday,.. but has decided not ot convert the other half today. Think I'll wait for the next few days to see if the Budget Revision will 'steroid' the MYR again. Furthermore, I have yet to use up all my funds in the SG mkt. Still waiting for more values.
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post Jan 26 2016, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 26 2016, 11:52 AM)
Prophet,.. tq for your good insights,... rclxms.gif And you have great observation skills,.. I'll start observing rigs too from now,... biggrin.gif
*
In a low oil environment, the 1st sector to get their Capex and Opex haircut is the E & P. Thats upstream O n G activities. No one will invest in such low oil price environment if they can. Who would want to invest in exploration which is a high risk activity? Who would want to invest in production facilities when there is over supply of 1.5mil barrels per day???????

Whereas low oil prices are good for downstream activities because that means their raw material is cheap, therefore profitability will increase if all things remain equal like our pump prices.

i saw the price of drilling coming down from $135k p day to 85k p day for drill rigs! icon_question.gif
those new rigs like what UMW O n G has is gonna suffer big time!

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Jan 26 2016, 12:14 PM
prophetjul
post Jan 26 2016, 02:32 PM

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Further to the Sete saga

Maybank Kim Eng says" If we removed the revenue from Sete Brasil, earnings per share for 2016-17 will be reduced by 17%"

There is good writeup here

Pg 16

http://tefd.theedgemarkets.com/2016/TEP/20160126g1k7a0.pdf

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Jan 26 2016, 02:39 PM
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post Jan 26 2016, 02:38 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 26 2016, 02:32 PM)
Further to the Sete saga

Maybank Kim Eng says" If we removed the revenue from Sete Brasil, earnings per share for 2016-17 will be reduced by 17%" 

There is good writeup here

http://tefd.theedgemarkets.com/2016/TEP/20160126g1k7a0.pdf
*
Then we will be hoping that the other two business segments will be able to fill the voids left by O&M.

The CEO has also committed that they will always pay 40%-50% of their net earnings out as dividends.

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Okay,... for unitholders of Parkway Life REIT, reporting this evening,... Parkway Life REIT is one of two healthcare REITs in Sgp.

Edited by updating : Till now,.. the reports are not uploaded to SGXNET,...they said after trading hours,... shakehead.gif

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 26 2016, 07:05 PM
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post Jan 27 2016, 09:13 AM

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Temasek mulling sale of stakes in Keppel, Keppel Reit and M1

http://sdb.theedgemarkets.com/2016/SMR/SMR...60127x4b3ug.pdf
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post Jan 27 2016, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 27 2016, 09:13 AM)
Temasek mulling sale of stakes in Keppel, Keppel Reit and M1

http://sdb.theedgemarkets.com/2016/SMR/SMR...60127x4b3ug.pdf
*
Tq prophet.... similar article as below :-

January 26, 2016:

Temasek Holdings Pte is discussing options for portfolio companies Keppel Corp. and Sembcorp Industries Ltd., ranging from divesting their non-core assets to selling shares, as the two Singaporean rig builders grapple with the oil-price slump, people with knowledge of the matter said.

Temasek is weighing the possibility of Keppel selling its 19.1 percent stake in wireless operator M1 Ltd. and paring its 44.6 percent interest in office landlord Keppel REIT, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. Keppel’s holdings in the two firms are worth a combined S$1.6 billion ($1.1 billion) at current market prices, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Temasek executives also discussed the possibility of Keppel and Sembcorp Industries selling stock through rights offerings, the people said. The options, presented Monday during a regular Temasek meeting to review its portfolio companies, focused on how Temasek can preserve the value of its investments amid a downturn in the oil-rig sector and will be shared with the two companies’ boards, the people said.

Orders at Keppel and Sembcorp Marine Ltd., the world’s No. 1 and No. 2 maker of oil rigs, dropped in 2015 to their weakest level in six years as falling crude prices crimped demand for drilling equipment. The two companies also face cancellation risks from a major client in Brazil, which is embroiled in a corruption probe and hasn’t been able to pay the two Singapore companies since November 2014.

Any action would need to be decided and approved by the companies’ boards, according to the people. Temasek is the largest shareholder in the two conglomerates, with a 21 percent stake in Keppel and a 49.5 percent holding in Sembcorp Industries, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The Temasek team told executives at the state investment company that the rig-building industry outlook is likely to remain weak for the next three years, and Temasek may be called on to support any moves taken by Keppel or Sembcorp Industries, the people said. Brent crude, the benchmark for most of the world’s oil, has fallen 39 percent in the past year and last week hit the lowest level since 2003.

Temasek declined to comment in an e-mailed statement. Representatives for Keppel and Keppel REIT didn’t comment. A spokeswoman for Sembcorp Industries didn’t immediately respond to an e-mail and phone call seeking comment, while a representative for M1 declined to comment.

Comments :-

1) Keppel Capital is being mulled to incorporate the asset management divisions of Keppel DC REIT, Keppel Infra Trust and Alpha Investment Partners. Hence, chances are high that these 3 divisions will continue to stay under the umbrella of Keppel Corp.

2) Keppel REIT may be spun off,... and appears as a standalone REIT. No more clout under Keppel Corp and Temasek Holdings.

3) M1 may lose its clout under Temasek Holdings too.

4) I would prefer that Starhub is not included in this divestment exercise by Temasek Holdings.
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post Jan 27 2016, 11:44 AM

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If,..let's say,..someone in OPEC or in a strong non-OPEC oil-producing country says : supply cut,....... will this really :-

1) turn around China's economy ?

2) improve stock indices around the world, including the STI-ST ?

3) and locally in Kangkong Land : re-strengthen our MYR back to 4.00, or slightly below 4.00 vs the USD ?

Do all the above really hinge on the price of oil, and oil price only and no other factors ???????????
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post Jan 27 2016, 12:34 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 26 2016, 07:02 PM)
Okay,... for unitholders of Parkway Life REIT, reporting this evening,... Parkway Life REIT is one of two healthcare REITs in Sgp.

Edited by updating : Till now,.. the reports are not uploaded to SGXNET,...they said after trading hours,... shakehead.gif
*
Parkway Life REIT uploaded their reports yesterday at 8.15pm.

1) DPU increased from 2.90 Cts per unit (Q4 2014) to 3.37 Cts per unit (Q4 2015). Minussing out a one-off gain in the DPU of 0.38 Cts per unit, the DPU for Q4 2015 = 2.99 Cts per unit, still an increase compared to 2.90 Cts per unit for Q4 2014.

2) DPU for Q4 2015 was 3.37 Cts per unit, but can't recall if there was any one-off gain for that quarter. Perhaps there is,... because of the reason for the one-off gain is from a divestment of some Japanese properties.

3) The CEO said : This marks the ninth consecutive year of growth since 2007, and once again demonstrates the success of the REIT’s resilient model.

4) Interest rate has been hedged for 93% of the loans,...this is good. If interest rates increases in the immediate future, this REIT will not be shaken suddenly,.. and will have time to adjust slowly to such increases.

5) The CEO is of the view, moving forward : The healthcare sector will remain resilient due to the strong demand for high quality healthcare driven by growing affluence and ageing population in the region.

6) Provided that this REIT is not 'shifted' to another country, say,... Msia, then there is a lot of future to stay with this REIT.

I will continue to hold this REIT !
prophetjul
post Jan 27 2016, 02:23 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 27 2016, 11:44 AM)
If,..let's say,..someone in OPEC or in a strong non-OPEC oil-producing country says : supply cut,....... will this really :-

1) turn around China's economy ?

2) improve stock indices around the world, including the STI-ST ?

3) and locally in Kangkong Land : re-strengthen our MYR back to 4.00, or slightly below 4.00 vs the USD ?

Do all the above really hinge on the price of oil, and oil price only and no other factors ???????????
*
Mostly NO is the answer.

The low oil price environment is a consequence of lower demand and higher supply.
Lower demand is a consequence of contracting economic activities, therefore China's slow down contributes to the lower oil demand.
Stock indices will only improve when economic activity starts to improve. While this activity is anemic and slow, we won't see stock markets improving that soon.
that's the reason why economy is a cyclic activity.

user posted image
yck1987
post Jan 27 2016, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 27 2016, 12:34 PM)
Parkway Life REIT uploaded their reports yesterday at 8.15pm.

1) DPU increased from 2.90 Cts per unit (Q4 2014) to 3.37 Cts per unit (Q4 2015). Minussing out a one-off gain in the DPU of 0.38 Cts per unit, the DPU for Q4 2015 = 2.99 Cts per unit, still an increase compared to 2.90 Cts per unit for Q4 2014.

2) DPU for Q4 2015 was 3.37 Cts per unit, but can't recall if there was any one-off gain for that quarter. Perhaps there is,... because of the reason for the one-off gain is from a divestment of some Japanese properties.

3) The CEO said : This marks the ninth consecutive year of growth since 2007, and once again demonstrates the success of the REIT’s resilient model.

4) Interest rate has been hedged for 93% of the loans,...this is good. If interest rates increases in the immediate future, this REIT will not be shaken suddenly,.. and will have time to adjust slowly to such increases.

5) The CEO is of the view, moving forward : The healthcare sector will remain resilient due to the strong demand for high quality healthcare driven by growing affluence and ageing population in the region.

6) Provided that this REIT is not 'shifted' to another country, say,... Msia, then there is a lot of future to stay with this REIT.

I will continue to hold this REIT !
*
wow, I have quite a few counters same as you including this Plife. thumbup.gif
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post Jan 27 2016, 10:10 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 27 2016, 02:23 PM)
Mostly NO is the answer.

The low oil price environment is a consequence of lower demand and higher supply.
Lower demand is a consequence of contracting economic activities, therefore China's slow down contributes to the lower oil demand.
Stock indices will only improve when economic activity starts to improve. While this activity is anemic and slow, we won't see stock markets improving that soon.
that's the reason why economy is a cyclic activity.

user posted image
*
Thank you, prophet,...great diagram you have there,... rclxms.gif
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post Jan 27 2016, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 27 2016, 04:33 PM)
wow, I have quite a few counters same as you including this Plife.  thumbup.gif
*
rclxms.gif Hopefully we are right !

I have started to look at Ascott Residence Trust. Trigger-point, this REIT has started giving out DPU based on her US properties. The Element, at Times Square West was acquired in August 2015.
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post Jan 28 2016, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 27 2016, 10:13 PM)
rclxms.gif Hopefully we are right !

I have started to look at Ascott Residence Trust. Trigger-point, this REIT has started giving out DPU based on her US properties. The Element, at Times Square West was acquired in August 2015.
*
Hansel, what u think of Accordia Golf Trust.
Price drop severely and the yield seem good.


http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/...facts?code=ADQU
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post Jan 28 2016, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 28 2016, 10:39 AM)
Hansel, what u think of Accordia Golf Trust.
Price drop severely and the yield seem good.
http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/...facts?code=ADQU
*
Good morning, Elea,... will look at it...


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post Jan 28 2016, 11:22 AM

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As we speak, the Interbank Rate now for the SGDMYR= 2.9583. Another 10 mins to the Budget Revision. The MYR continues to strengthen,...


TSHansel
post Jan 28 2016, 11:26 AM

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We called Mid-Valley in KL - SGDMYR offered is 2.98, BUT NO STOCK. biggrin.gif

Another place in KL offered at 2.99,.. even for mediocre of $20K only,... so should be able to get further discounts,...

Ready ammo,... ready contacts,... fill-up warchest today,....
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post Jan 28 2016, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 28 2016, 10:39 AM)
Hansel, what u think of Accordia Golf Trust.
Price drop severely and the yield seem good.
http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/...facts?code=ADQU
*
A few quick glances at key metrics and opinion threads :-

1) Something new, something like Keppel DC REIT, targetted at the luxury market. Golf activities in Japan are expensive, many Jap executives would rather go overseas, and even after factoring-in the flight-ticket, hotel expenses, etc, they still find playing gold outside of Japan cheaper. Hence, green fees are not the only considerations here.

Furthermore, sometimes, the weather in Japan really does not permit tee-off activities,... but that's just what I heard from my Jap friends.

2) There is something like a lock-up period reported throughout the filings with SGX since July 2014. Could be lockup from selling. Didn't read further.

3) Lots of transactional reports about shareholders selling and buying throughout the two years since listing in July 2014.

4) The unit price has been on a downtrend since listing : https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ADQU...DQU.SI;range=1d

5) Dividend looks very good, at 16.6% at last count, but there is no dividend history to evaluate on,... hence we do not know how stable the dividend can be. There is no nearest peer in Singapore that I can reference on. Have not checked overseas.

Low level dividend policy research : http://www.dividends.sg/view/ADQU

6) Not much opinions from my contacts and analysts,...

Perhaps the trust needs to do more advertising and promotional activities to advertise this trust out there. Can't comment with a BUY,..yet,...


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post Jan 28 2016, 12:05 PM

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SGDMYR is ready around 2.9590. Heard many positions are ready to load-up on the SGD. Soon,... no more stocks again ?? More work to follow-up on,....

Edited : *steady

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 28 2016, 12:06 PM
elea88
post Jan 28 2016, 12:41 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 28 2016, 12:05 PM)
SGDMYR is ready around 2.9590. Heard many positions are ready to load-up on the SGD. Soon,... no more stocks again ?? More work to follow-up on,....

Edited : *steady
*
Where got 2.959?
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post Jan 28 2016, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 28 2016, 12:41 PM)
Where got 2.959?
*
Interbank rate,...

Strengthened further to 2.9496 now,... ie dipped below the emo support of 2.9500 on the SGDMYR chart now. Lower highs and lower lows phenomenon. rclxms.gif

Steady, steady,...
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post Jan 28 2016, 12:53 PM

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Forummers,... hstory is repeatig itself all over again. Same occurence observed in the BUdget Ann't in October last year.

Budget Revision this afternoon,... look at the dive straight down : http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SGDMYR%...ing":true}

We can predict currency movements,.... rclxm9.gif
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post Jan 28 2016, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 28 2016, 12:46 PM)
Interbank rate,...

Strengthened further to 2.9496 now,... ie dipped below the emo support of 2.9500 on the SGDMYR chart now. Lower highs and lower lows phenomenon.  rclxms.gif

Steady, steady,...
*
budget revision effect... by on the rumor, sell on the news? tongue.gif

stronger rm also good... maybe traders will decrease imported item prices...? biggrin.gif
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post Jan 28 2016, 12:55 PM

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Straight-down dive,...reaching 2.9512 now. Can break below 2.9500 ???????
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post Jan 28 2016, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 28 2016, 12:53 PM)
budget revision effect... by on the rumor, sell on the news? tongue.gif

stronger rm also good... maybe traders will decrease imported item prices...? biggrin.gif
*
Yessir,......

The window of opportunity is small,... AND : I continue to stand firm on the position that there is really nothing much out there, fundamental-wise,.. that will strengthen the RM.

sad.gif rclxms.gif rclxm9.gif
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post Jan 28 2016, 01:00 PM

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As a side note,... look at the following chart : http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDMYR%...ing":true}

The USDMYR is also diving,.... for those who are keen to buy the USD, can start to take positions. Do start calling your favourite money-changers to book your amount.

But, I think for the USD, a lot of stocks out there,... can still wait,...
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post Jan 28 2016, 01:08 PM

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Lower lows (2.9435) 10 mins ago, and lower highs (2.9501) now,....wait for the signal,...
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post Jan 28 2016, 01:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 28 2016, 01:08 PM)
Lower lows (2.9435) 10 mins ago, and lower highs (2.9501) now,....wait for the signal,...
*
where u get this from?
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post Jan 28 2016, 01:10 PM

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A tip for this afternoon,... if no stock in KL,...check rates in JB,.. or in Sgp,...
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post Jan 28 2016, 01:12 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 28 2016, 01:09 PM)
where u get this from?
*
Interbank Rates in Malaysia as interpreted by Yahoo Finance : http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SGDMYR%...ing":true}

May be different for Singapore,... can be better if stocks are limited in KL,....
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 28 2016, 01:10 PM)
A tip for this afternoon,... if no stock in KL,...check rates in JB,.. or in Sgp,...
*
I in KL.. so far no such rate from money changer... U from where Hansel?
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post Jan 28 2016, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 28 2016, 01:12 PM)
I in KL.. so far no such rate from money changer... U from where Hansel?
*
No, Elea,... you can't get those interbank rates from the money-changer, those rates are for transactions between banks. What we do is to try and get rates as close to those rates as possible, for KL.

The closer you wish to buy from a money-changer, the more you have to offer him. But thhis too,... depends on whether the money cjanger has stocks or not, and whether he is willing to let go of his Sing Dollars or not,... it's a money game,...
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post Jan 28 2016, 01:19 PM

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In another SG thread at this very moment,... the interbank rates dictated by MAS is even better for conversion, than the interbank rates for Msia.

Reference point : Mustafa.
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post Jan 28 2016, 01:26 PM

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TT Rate offered by Maybank at this moment to mass mkt is still above 3.0009,... bad rate,..

Maybank Treasury can perhaps offer at,... 2.9900 for conversion of RM50K and above. Bad rate,...
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post Jan 28 2016, 02:10 PM

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MYR on Tongkat ALee

1.00 SGD = 2.94857 MYR
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post Jan 28 2016, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 28 2016, 02:18 PM)
No, Elea,... you can't get those interbank rates from the money-changer, those rates are for transactions between banks. What we do is to try and get rates as close to those rates as possible, for KL.

The closer you wish to buy from a money-changer, the more you have to offer him. But thhis too,... depends on whether the money cjanger has stocks or not, and whether he is willing to let go of his Sing Dollars or not,... it's a money game,...
*
Just wondering, how much is "more" in order to get better rate from money changer than stated on their TVs? I am small timer, changing like SGD10k (MYR30k), maybe it's not good enough?

Thanks.
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QUOTE(wjchay @ Jan 28 2016, 02:11 PM)
Just wondering, how much is "more" in order to get better rate from money changer than stated on their TVs? I am small timer, changing like SGD10k (MYR30k), maybe it's not good enough?

Thanks.
*
if u changing at Money Changer.. they might not have SGD 10K stock... better u call first.

Money changer said their cost is high.. so, cannot give good rate wor....
prophetjul
post Jan 28 2016, 03:11 PM

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i found surprisingly it may be cheaper to change in SG. Happened to me a few times.
And of course that was before the demise of the MYR. smile.gif

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post Jan 28 2016, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 28 2016, 04:11 PM)
i found surprisingly it may be cheaper to change in SG. Happened to me a few times.
And of course that was before the demise of the MYR.  smile.gif
*
http://arcademoneychangers.com.sg/ratesbiglogo.asp

I contacted them via email in Dec, and they asked me to look at the URL above. In Dec, the rate was better in KL. However, looking at it today, seems like Arcade has better rate?


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post Jan 28 2016, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(wjchay @ Jan 28 2016, 03:29 PM)
http://arcademoneychangers.com.sg/ratesbiglogo.asp

I contacted them via email in Dec, and they asked me to look at the URL above. In Dec, the rate was better in KL. However, looking at it today, seems like Arcade has better rate?
*
Problem is bringing all the Ringgits across! laugh.gif
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post Jan 28 2016, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 28 2016, 04:33 PM)
Problem is bringing all the Ringgits across!  laugh.gif
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Someone in this the other thread told me half a mil MYR is only a back pack wink.gif

On a serious note, someone else said when you drive across, they don't really check.
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post Jan 28 2016, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(wjchay @ Jan 28 2016, 03:47 PM)
Someone in this the other thread told me half a mil MYR is only a back pack wink.gif

On a serious note, someone else said when you drive across, they don't really check.
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Breakin the law ler
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post Jan 28 2016, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 28 2016, 05:08 PM)
Breakin the law ler
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I believe you can take up to RM10k without declaration, you can check BNM or customs website. Also, if you choose to declare, I think you can declare as much as you want, as long as the funds are legally obtained, maybe others can shed some light here.

EDIT:
http://www.bnm.gov.my/microsites/fxadmin/n...1_Residents.pdf
Section 2.1.2 Investment abroad - should be pretty clear.

EDIT:
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_curr_declaration
USD10k worth of MYR to cross border will need to be declared. That's all.


This post has been edited by wjchay: Jan 28 2016, 04:32 PM
TSHansel
post Jan 28 2016, 04:38 PM

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Hi everybody,...

Sorry for the disappearance,... been busy,... smile.gif

Looking at the charts, seems like the SGDMYR is tapering-off at 2.9360,... the waves are getting weaker an levelling-off at that point.

If changing money at the Arcade, the rates are good,... yes,...

A traveller can carry across USD10K, or its equivalent in other currencies, thru Customs at any particular time, without filling in the form and make a declaration.

Other businesses, as per normal events,...

Edited : Apologies,.. should be 2.9460 and not 2.9360 when I checked back a second time.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 28 2016, 05:01 PM
TSHansel
post Jan 28 2016, 11:55 PM

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As of this moment, SGDMYR = 2.9230. Still continuing to be steady.
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post Jan 28 2016, 11:56 PM

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I wonder if oil price pushes up higher, will the effect on the SGX-ST be 'pushing up higher' too ??
yck1987
post Jan 29 2016, 11:23 AM

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why sgx thread become currency thread already ? Ringgit strengthen bad news to me la, I need more RM for CNY cry.gif

$1 = 2.9049 now market rate
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post Jan 29 2016, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 28 2016, 10:39 AM)
Hansel, what u think of Accordia Golf Trust.
Price drop severely and the yield seem good.
http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/...facts?code=ADQU
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High volume today thumbup.gif
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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 29 2016, 11:23 AM)
why sgx thread become currency thread already ? Ringgit strengthen bad news to me la, I need more RM for CNY  cry.gif

$1 = 2.9049 now market rate
*
Hi yck,... I laid down some ideas because SGD is needed in order to buy more counters in the SGX nod.gif ...

Yeah,...I must admit that I feel the same as you do too, seeing the SGD plunged to 2.90 level, but in a way, we have to feel good too, because this gives us a chance to buy the SGD cheaper. If I/we are of the view, the long term view,.. that the SGD is still the currency that is more resilient, then we must carry the conviction and the confidence to load-up more of the SGD. Short-term dips of the SGD must be treated as windows of opportunity for us to convert over. Emotional pressure due to short term events must be offset at all cost,...unless, of course, we tell ourselves that the MYR has actually regained its true fundamentals, and IS THE currency to go with.

Need for funds for the coming CNY next week is a short term event,...

So,.. steady, my friend,...
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post Jan 29 2016, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 29 2016, 11:46 AM)
High volume today    thumbup.gif
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thumbup.gif could be a case of the rising tide carrying all boats up,... SGX-ST is heavily green today. rclxms.gif
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post Jan 29 2016, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 29 2016, 05:25 PM)
thumbup.gif  could be a case of the rising tide carrying all boats up,... SGX-ST is heavily green today.  rclxms.gif
*
Very rare do i see such heavy volume with Accordia. Most oft thinly traded counter. Something good coming? biggrin.gif

Last time it hit 7mil was June 2015

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Jan 29 2016, 05:28 PM
TSHansel
post Jan 29 2016, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 29 2016, 05:26 PM)
Very rare do i see such heavy volume with Accordia. Most oft thinly traded counter. Something good coming?    biggrin.gif

Last time it hit 7mil was June 2015
*
Interesting,... could be,... perhaps further acquisitions,... There wasn't any official ann't in the SGXNET for yesterday and today. Keep a lookout for the monthly report ,.... thisis one counter that I discovered that gives out monthly reports,... smile.gif
yck1987
post Jan 29 2016, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 29 2016, 05:17 PM)
Hi yck,... I laid down some ideas because SGD is needed in order to buy more counters in the SGX  nod.gif ...

Yeah,...I must admit that I feel the same as you do too, seeing the SGD plunged to 2.90 level, but in a way, we have to feel good too, because this gives us a chance to buy the SGD cheaper. If I/we are of the view, the long term view,.. that the SGD is still the currency that is more resilient, then we must carry the conviction and the confidence to load-up more of the SGD. Short-term dips of the SGD must be treated as windows of opportunity for us to convert over. Emotional pressure due to short term events must be offset at all cost,...unless, of course, we tell ourselves that the MYR has actually regained its true fundamentals, and IS THE currency to go with.

Need for funds for the coming CNY next week is a short term event,...

So,.. steady, my friend,...
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nope bro Hansel, my meaning is that I'm a sgd earner, I need higher exchange rate to convert more to Ringgit for cny event. blush.gif


yck1987
post Jan 29 2016, 05:54 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 29 2016, 05:25 PM)
thumbup.gif  could be a case of the rising tide carrying all boats up,... SGX-ST is heavily green today.  rclxms.gif
*
all counters green today, being some times never see such rally in my portfolio. rclxms.gif

in conclusion for this month alone, my portfolio still down about 15%. major cause by banking stocks and kepp corpse laugh.gif steady steady, next month fight back wink.gif

This post has been edited by yck1987: Jan 29 2016, 06:00 PM
TSHansel
post Jan 29 2016, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 29 2016, 05:51 PM)
nope bro Hansel, my meaning is that I'm a sgd earner, I need higher exchange rate to convert more to Ringgit for cny event.    blush.gif
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I see,... good for you then. Yes, you are right then, if the MYR weakens further, you will get more MYR for each SGD that you convert over for your expenses in Msia. Looking at it in another way,...you are already winning, each SGD that you earn was only giving you RM2.70 not too long ago. You are getting more than that now. thumbup.gif

Wait till next week. The MYR will not strengthen forever... thumbup.gif
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post Jan 29 2016, 06:59 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Jan 29 2016, 05:54 PM)
all counters green today, being some times never see such rally in my portfolio.  rclxms.gif

in conclusion for this month alone, my portfolio still down about 15%. major cause by banking stocks and kepp corpse  laugh.gif  steady steady, next month fight back  wink.gif
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No problem there,... 15% down can be covered back easily by KepCorp and banking stocks. rclxms.gif
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post Jan 29 2016, 07:44 PM

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Starting from this evening,... the charts for USDMYR and SGDMYR are saying to me : climb higher highs and higher lows........Is the MYR turning around and starting to weaken. The pulses look solid and consistent,... but that's to my eyes !


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post Jan 29 2016, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 29 2016, 07:44 PM)
Starting from this evening,... the charts for USDMYR and SGDMYR are saying to me : climb higher highs and higher lows........Is the MYR turning around and starting to weaken. The pulses look solid and consistent,... but that's to my eyes !
*
What has changed that makes the RM go up?
Has the oil prices spiked back to $70+?
Has the fundamental of economy strengthen in Malaysia?
Has the productivity & talent increased?
Has the brain drain issue improved?

AVFAN
post Jan 29 2016, 07:53 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 29 2016, 07:44 PM)
Starting from this evening,... the charts for USDMYR and SGDMYR are saying to me : climb higher highs and higher lows........Is the MYR turning around and starting to weaken. The pulses look solid and consistent,... but that's to my eyes !
*
i would not rclxms.gif too early.

rm may have peaked for this round.

i will watch oil price, dow and china closely.

oil unlikely to rise much more that quickly unless opec and others cut production.

even so, shale oil can return very quickly.



it was perfect weather.

a new perfect storm can gather - oil falls, china devalues, new scandal, bigger than expected deficits, some terror incident...

better be balanced, on even keel for now.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 29 2016, 08:04 PM
TSHansel
post Jan 29 2016, 08:15 PM

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I can't really comment with solid reasons why the charts could be turning round,... the only thing I can say is from what I perceived from the charts. Just my eyes,..from viewing multiple types of diagrams in my investing life, and in my extrapolations with statistical theories.

My best guess : oil price could be weakening again, or staying still from now. Reason : the talks are not credulous enough to justify a turnaround in the price of oil.
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post Feb 1 2016, 05:23 PM

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The MYR looks to be weak, and finds it hard to strengthen further from here.

Interbank Rate now = 1 SGD = MYR 2.9194. Standing-by to convert,....
AVFAN
post Feb 1 2016, 08:31 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 1 2016, 05:23 PM)
The MYR looks to be weak, and finds it hard to strengthen further from here.

Interbank Rate now = 1 SGD = MYR 2.9194. Standing-by to convert,....
*
think it's exhausted... ya, that fast. biggrin.gif

TSHansel
post Feb 2 2016, 11:18 AM

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Okay,... confirmed rate at 2.9400. Rested mind if further drops should occur in the short term.
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post Feb 2 2016, 11:31 AM

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For your reading pleasure :-

Singapore seizes bank accounts as part of 1MDB probe

February 1, 2016:

Singapore said on Monday it has seized a large number of bank accounts in connection with possible money-laundering offences related to investigations into alleged financial mismanagement at Malaysian state investor 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB).

Singapore is cooperating with authorities in Malaysia, Switzerland and the United States on the investigations into 1MDB, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Commercial Affairs Department, the city-state’s white collar police, said in a statement.

“In connection with these investigations, we have sought and are continuing to seek information from several financial institutions, are interviewing various individuals, and have seized a large number of bank accounts,” the two agencies said in the statement.

The statement came after Switzerland’s chief prosecutor said last week a criminal investigation into 1MDB had revealed that about $4 billion appeared to have been misappropriated from Malaysian state companies.

1MDB, whose advisory board is chaired by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, has been investigated by Malaysian authorities following accusations of financial mismanagement and graft. 1MDB has denied these allegations.

Malaysian Attorney-General Mohamed Apandi Ali last week cleared Najib of any criminal offences or corruption in connection with the case and said he was closing the investigations into it.

Najib was buffeted last year by allegations of graft and mismanagement at the debt-laden state fund and by a revelation that about $681 million was deposited into his personal bank account.

Najib denied any wrongdoing.

Apandi said the $681 million transfer to Najib’s account was a gift from Saudi Arabia’s royal family, and said no further action needed to be taken on the matter.
yck1987
post Feb 2 2016, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 2 2016, 11:18 AM)
Okay,... confirmed rate at 2.9400. Rested mind if further drops should occur in the short term.
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did you convert your sgd already? exchange rate slowly moving up ...
TSHansel
post Feb 2 2016, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Feb 2 2016, 11:36 AM)
did you convert your sgd already? exchange rate slowly moving up ...
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Yes, confirmed over phone already. All done,... the actual changing hands-of-funds can be later on,...
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post Feb 2 2016, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 2 2016, 11:41 AM)
Yes, confirmed over phone already. All done,... the actual changing hands-of-funds can be later on,...
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good for you.

1mdb saga continues into eternity, dragging everyone and everything in the mud.

crude price <31, again.

rm/usd 4.20, again.

reasons for rm to decline >>> reasons to rise.

so, keep yr usd, sgd! tongue.gif


TSHansel
post Feb 2 2016, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 2 2016, 11:57 AM)
good for you.

1mdb saga continues into eternity, dragging everyone and everything in the mud.

crude price <31, again.

rm/usd 4.20, again.

reasons for rm to decline >>> reasons to rise.

so, keep yr usd, sgd! tongue.gif
*
Yes,... it has been a great experience, as we observe closer and closer, as the events unfold,... as long as we know where to watch, what media is accurate in delivering the news and updates,... I can really see the effects on the exchange rates.

rclxms.gif

Edited : It's good to journal down the events in this thread for the good of the netizens.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Feb 2 2016, 12:06 PM
TSHansel
post Feb 2 2016, 12:20 PM

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Wow,... look at the climb on the SGDMYR chart,....... shocking.gif

Learning lesson here : the moment a small 'negative' news hits,... the MYR will just plunge over the cliff,............ shocking.gif rclxub.gif
elea88
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 2 2016, 11:57 AM)
good for you.

1mdb saga continues into eternity, dragging everyone and everything in the mud.

crude price <31, again.

rm/usd 4.20, again.

reasons for rm to decline >>> reasons to rise.

so, keep yr usd, sgd! tongue.gif
*
ya la.. so so fast... Procrastinate... no more the 2.90....
AVFAN
post Feb 2 2016, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Feb 2 2016, 06:03 PM)
ya la.. so so fast... Procrastinate... no more the 2.90....
*
2016, year of the fire monkey - only fast hands fast legs can win. laugh.gif

tmrw will likely see it going down further... crude falling fast, again.

meanwhile us bond prices going higher, yields going lower.

good reits should emulate bonds, yes?! tongue.gif


this is meant to scare, i suppose:

QUOTE
Treasury bond exchange-traded funds took four of the top five spots among all ETFs in investor inflows in January. It's the first time that's happened since 2003, and only the second time ever that Treasury bond ETFs have dominated ETF flows in a month.

The ETF data, provided to CNBC by XTF.com, shows just how fearful investors were in a January that was the worst for the markets since 2009. Only twice in the history of the ETF industry have four Treasury ETFs managed to make the top 10 ETFs in asset flows — August 2003 and September 2015 — let alone the top 5 for a 30-day period.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/01/fearful-inv...since-2003.html


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 2 2016, 06:28 PM
TSHansel
post Feb 2 2016, 07:00 PM

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FTSE, DAX and CAC are all red now. DOW Fut, S&P Fut and Nasdaq Fut are red now. More plunges coming,...
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 2 2016, 06:22 PM)
2016, year of the fire monkey - only fast hands fast legs can win. laugh.gif

tmrw will likely see it going down further... crude falling fast, again.

meanwhile us bond prices going higher, yields going lower.

good reits should emulate bonds, yes?! tongue.gif
this is meant to scare, i suppose:
*
hmm.gif Yes, good REITs should emulate bonds,... rclxms.gif ...providing stable payouts.
TSHansel
post Feb 2 2016, 07:13 PM

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And as we speak, the curve on the SGDMYR chart keeps climbing with higher lows and higher highs. The window to convert is slowly closing, after the Budget REvision and that blip in oil price.

Now must wait for the next catalyst to open the window again.

After this, back to the plunging STI again,...

By the way,... just a tip here, for forummers who are keen to open trading accounts with lower charges, they should consider The Standard Chartered, Singapore. For each transaction, the charge is only 0.20% flat on the transaction amount.

There will be a tiny fee called the SGX Clearing Fee, 0.0325% added onto the transaction amount too.

This account is good for beginners.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Feb 2 2016, 07:14 PM
Showtime747
post Feb 2 2016, 07:26 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 2 2016, 07:13 PM)

By the way,... just a tip here, for forummers who are keen to open trading accounts with lower charges, they should consider The Standard Chartered, Singapore. For each transaction, the charge is only 0.20% flat on the transaction amount.

There will be a tiny fee called the SGX Clearing Fee, 0.0325% added onto the transaction amount too.

This account is good for beginners.
*
Bro, just to ask about your "tip". Is the following chart outdated ? Other broker are cheaper at 0.18%

http://i.imgur.com/HmpbAQz.png
orangbulu
post Feb 2 2016, 11:27 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 2 2016, 07:26 PM)
Bro, just to ask about your "tip". Is the following chart outdated ? Other broker are cheaper at 0.18%

http://i.imgur.com/HmpbAQz.png
*
Other broker has minimum charge, standard chartered does not. So it depends on how much you want to buy.
yck1987
post Feb 2 2016, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 2 2016, 07:13 PM)
And as we speak, the curve on the SGDMYR chart keeps climbing with higher lows and higher highs. The window to convert is slowly closing, after the Budget REvision and that blip in oil price.

Now must wait for the next catalyst to open the window again.

After this, back to the plunging STI again,...

By the way,... just a tip here, for forummers who are keen to open trading accounts with lower charges, they should consider The Standard Chartered, Singapore. For each transaction, the charge is only 0.20% flat on the transaction amount.

There will be a tiny fee called the SGX Clearing Fee, 0.0325% added onto the transaction amount too.

This account is good for beginners.
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I'm part of SCB army thumbup.gif
Showtime747
post Feb 3 2016, 06:30 AM

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QUOTE(orangbulu @ Feb 2 2016, 11:27 PM)
Other broker has minimum charge, standard chartered does not. So it depends on how much you want to buy.
*
If you follow bro hensel, he is a big short. He should not be bothered with "minimum charge". Minimum charge applies to only <S$10k transaction
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 2 2016, 07:13 PM)
And as we speak, the curve on the SGDMYR chart keeps climbing with higher lows and higher highs. The window to convert is slowly closing, after the Budget REvision and that blip in oil price.

Now must wait for the next catalyst to open the window again.

After this, back to the plunging STI again,...

By the way,... just a tip here, for forummers who are keen to open trading accounts with lower charges, they should consider The Standard Chartered, Singapore. For each transaction, the charge is only 0.20% flat on the transaction amount.

There will be a tiny fee called the SGX Clearing Fee, 0.0325% added onto the transaction amount too.

This account is good for beginners.
*
Its nominee ac....

I did not open that, coz worried on Estate Planning. What u think?
MCPlz
post Feb 3 2016, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Feb 2 2016, 11:34 PM)
I'm part of SCB army  thumbup.gif
*
SCB supporter here too biggrin.gif
been using it for almost one year. platform is simple just not quite useful for stock analysis. most importantly no minimum charge! buy small buy big also can. the only other risk is if SCB collapse then your stocks will have problem..
elea88
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QUOTE(MCPlz @ Feb 3 2016, 09:11 AM)
SCB supporter here too  biggrin.gif
been using it for almost one year. platform is simple just not quite useful for stock analysis. most importantly no minimum charge! buy small buy big also can. the only other risk is if SCB collapse then your stocks will have problem..
*
i dun think so, coz if the shares u already bought.. should be in yr CDP not STAND CHART.
Its only yr Cash not utilize with Stand Chart will be affected.
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post Feb 3 2016, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Feb 3 2016, 10:01 AM)
i dun think so, coz if the shares u already bought.. should be in yr CDP not STAND CHART.
Its only yr Cash not utilize with Stand Chart will be affected.
*
from my understanding, Standard chartered shares are kept in a custodian account not in CDP, therefore if one day you decide to move the shares to CDP then need to apply with SCB and pay a certain charge... the other drawback is since the shares are in custodian account, you won't be entitled to go to AGM makan makan...
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post Feb 3 2016, 11:57 AM

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Hi everybody,..
TSHansel
post Feb 3 2016, 12:17 PM

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For an Online Trading Accunt with Standard Chartered Sgp, following are some considerations that will help answer some doubts in our mind :-

1) From the FAQ : What would happen if the Bank decides to cease offering of the Online Equities Trading platform?

Should the Bank decide to cease the offering of the Online Equities Trading platform, the Bank will, at every client’s option, deliver the Documents of Title of the securities in its custody back to the client, or transfer them to a bank or agent of client’s choice.

The delivery or transfer will be done in an orderly manner and in accordance with the banking agreement (which includes the Investment Product Terms) entered with the clients. The Bank’s staff would also be available to assist in the process.

Nonetheless, the above is a very unlikely scenario as the Bank has no intention of ceasing the offering of the Online Equities Trading platform.

For more information, please refer to Part E of the Investment Product Terms, which outlines the process for the termination by either party of the safe custody service.

2) Further infos from the FAQ : https://www.sc.com/sg/help-centre/faqs-ways...#online-trading

3) Yes, it's a concern for me too that I am not able to attend AGMs, however, I will always request to attend !

On my part, I have earlier alerted MAS about the opportunities for shareholders who hold shares under nominee accounts to attend the AGMs and EGMs.

Some initiatives have already been put into place by ACRA on this starting from 2016. But the arrangement is still under very preliminary stage,... but I think we are moving forward in this. I will need to extract from some ann'ts somewhere if forummers are keen to know more about the progress we have done to ensure nominee-based shareholders can attend AGMs/EGMs. ACRA and MAS will help in good governance initiatives.

4) A personal experience - when I click on the stock name under 'Stock Watch' in Online Trading, the latest news that affected that stock will be shown at the bottom of the page. I just can't find that news anywhere in the net, but can be seen in this Online Trading page. I suspected the news is from Reuters, a paid service. So,... it's quite informative too.

Hoped the above is helpful,...

Hoping the above is helpful,....


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post Feb 3 2016, 12:18 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 2 2016, 07:00 PM)
FTSE, DAX and CAC are all red now. DOW Fut, S&P Fut and Nasdaq Fut are red now. More plunges coming,...
*
all this point to a scary warning. lots of $ going from stocks to bonds.

feels very jittery to hold any stock! tongue.gif

QUOTE
10-year yield sinks below 1.9% as oil plunges
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/02/treasury-yi...-continues.html

The bond market is sending off a troubling signal
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/29/the-bond-ma...ing-signal.html

The most fearful market trade of all in abysmal January
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/01/fearful-inv...since-2003.html

TSHansel
post Feb 3 2016, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 3 2016, 06:30 AM)
If you follow bro hensel, he is a big short. He should not be bothered with "minimum charge". Minimum charge applies to only <S$10k transaction
*
thumbup.gif Bro,... I also buy in small lots,.. just so that I can attend the AGM and to participate in their corporate actions. Try-out first, get a feel of the counter, then buy more if confident.

nod.gif

I must say the SCB has a very nice and polite team of customer service representatives. nod.gif
TSHansel
post Feb 3 2016, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Feb 3 2016, 09:01 AM)
Its nominee ac....

I did not open that, coz worried on Estate Planning. What u think?
*
Hi Elea,...I supposed you can discuss with your RM about how to do Estate Planning for your investments if you are their client. I'm sure they will have something for you.
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post Feb 3 2016, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 3 2016, 12:18 PM)
all this point to a scary warning. lots of $ going from stocks to bonds.

feels very jittery to hold any stock! tongue.gif
*
nod.gif

I have not checked my portfolio this morning, but I'm sure the 'profit' will be lower than what I had yesterday. It's okay,.. let it fall,... just gather more SGD bullets first,...
Showtime747
post Feb 3 2016, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 3 2016, 12:24 PM)
thumbup.gif Bro,... I also buy in small lots,.. just so that I can attend the AGM and to participate in their corporate actions. Try-out first, get a feel of the counter, then buy more if confident.

nod.gif

I must say the SCB has a very nice and polite team of customer service representatives.  nod.gif
*
Very careful person thumbup.gif

If transaction cost is a concern, then malaysian who wish to buy stock in SGX should also take into account the exchange rate (besides brokerage etc)

Ie. we convert RM-->SGD and transfer to Singapore to buy SGX stock vs use local platform to buy SGX stock.

I think local platform is offering good forex rate. Just an example CIMB Itrade charges 2.9655 today. Compare to spot rate (asking) 2.9594. CIMB earns thin spread only

If we convert RM to SGD via bank, the rate may not be that good. Could easily surpass the benefit of 0.18% (Sg platform) vs 0.42% (My platform)

So, I was thinking we have to look at the total cost, both brokerage and forex when cost is the concern

Of course, there are reasons more than cost alone when we choose platforms.
TSHansel
post Feb 3 2016, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 3 2016, 04:32 PM)
Very careful person  thumbup.gif

If transaction cost is a concern, then malaysian who wish to buy stock in SGX should also take into account the exchange rate (besides brokerage etc)

Ie. we convert RM-->SGD and transfer to Singapore to buy SGX stock vs use local platform to buy SGX stock.

I think local platform is offering good forex rate. Just an example CIMB Itrade charges 2.9655 today. Compare to spot rate (asking) 2.9594. CIMB earns thin spread only

If we convert RM to SGD via bank, the rate may not be that good. Could easily surpass the benefit of 0.18% (Sg platform) vs 0.42% (My platform)

So, I was thinking we have to look at the total cost, both brokerage and forex when cost is the concern

Of course, there are reasons more than cost alone when we choose platforms.
*
rclxms.gif

If opening account with a Sgp broker, can go AGM, EGM, Singapore activities, and particiapte in the SGD appreciation,... biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Feb 4 2016, 08:31 AM

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As big American hedge funds begin their speculative attack on China Yuan and the Hong Kong dollar, another group of short-sellers have slipped into Southeast Asia, targeting Singapore, the region's financial hub. These short-sellers have Singapore stocks in their sights as the market struggles to find its footing after being hit hard by the commodity rout. The SGX saw its total short selling surge from 3.2 billion Singapore dollars (US$2.24 billion) in December to 5.6 billion Singapore dollars in January, representing 25 percent of total volume, the highest since data became available, Credit Suisse said in a note Tuesday. Short-selling refers to borrowing shares to sell in hopes of buying them back at a lower price later.

user posted image
After Soros reveals he is shorting Asia, big American hedge funds descend upon the region

That comes as the exchange is also facing headwinds from a concentration of listings in hard-hit sectors, including commodities, oil services and shipping as well as a hit from China's economic slowdown. Out of a total 776 listings at the end of December, the SGX had 63 listings in the basic materials sector, 40 in oil and gas and 267 classified as industrials. That compares with 26 healthcare listings and 59 technology listings. After the rout since the start of the year, the Straits Times Index is down nearly 12 percent year-to-date.

user posted image
25% of Singapore's stock market volume is now shorting

Among the stocks with the highest percentage of volume related to short-selling were agri-businesses Wilmar and Golden-Agri Resources and oil-rig-builders SembCorp Industries and Keppel Corp., Credit Suisse said. It comes at the time Singapore's financial market is already facing difficulty competing, particularly due to its relatively small size. The Singapore exchange's market capitalization, Southeast Asia's biggest, was at 904.77 billion Singapore dollars (US$632.26 billion) at the end of December, compared with Hong Kong's HKEx at 24.425 trillion Hong Kong dollars (US$3.13 trillion) at the end of December.

user posted image
Singapore's stocks have fallen 12% last month, speculators seek to crash it further

At the same time, the daily average turnover has been shrinking, with December's 774 million Singapore dollars' worth of average daily volume down 22 percent from the year-earlier month. The small size makes it tough for Singapore to attract institutional investors to its market. "One of the challenges for the Singapore market is that sometimes the criticism there is that there are not (enough) companies to invest in," Daryl Liew, head of portfolio management at asset manager Reyl Singapore, said at an SGX-CNBC summit last week in Singapore.

user posted image
Weakness revealed as Singapore's exports went down 7.2% in December

"We tend to invest only in companies with a minimum $1 billion market cap. Obviously there are some that we can put in there, but there are certain limitations to what we can actually allocate money to," he said. Another criticism comes from a perceived focus on stodgier industries, such as commodities and shipbuilding. "Where the market is a little bit weak at the moment is in growth stories, credible structural growth stories that you can invest in over a three-to-five-year time frame," Conrad Werner, head of equity research for Singapore at Macquarie, said at the panel. "They are there, selectively, but as a block, for example, I would like to see the technology sector represented within the index, which we don't have."

user posted image
Hong Kong monetary chief: short-sellers will not win, we defeated them in 1997 and we will again

In Hong Kong, the territory's monetary chief warned that speculators are wasting their time trying to short the Hong Kong dollar. But now instead of the currency they are moving into one of Hong Kong's weak spots, the property market. Hong Kong's property slump has begin to worry investors. Home prices have slumped almost 10 percent since September and monthly sales in January fell to the lowest since at least 1991, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd. "The danger is that when sentiment turns negative, it's very hard to turn things around," Michael Spencer, Deutsche Bank AG's Hong Kong-based Asian chief economist, said. Real estate developer made up a vital component in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

user posted image
Speculators diverted their attention, from currency to targeting Hong Kong's property stocks, who are now at their weakest since 1991

Norman Chan, the monetary chief, reminded speculators that Hong Kong government used its sizable foreign-exchange reserves to aggressively buy the stock market and ultimately defeated them back in 1997, saying Hong Kong is in a much stronger position to defend itself from a similar attack. He points to foreign reserves at HK$422 billion, 5.2 times higher than the HK$67.6 billion in 1997. This, he says, means the same strategies in 1997 to short sell the Hong Kong dollar to try to push the interest rate up and benefit from falling stock markets would be less effective and too expensive.

user posted image
China: We will use all means to defend the stability of our currency

In China, the People's Bank of China launched a two-pronged attack on short-sellers by mopping up the currency overseas and choking supply of yuan from the mainland. The assault pushed the offshore rate to a premium that week, before it swung the other way again. "Bears are not giving up on shorting the yuan simply because of the PBOC's attacks, and they are preparing to return to the game," said Kenix Lai, a foreign-exchange analyst at Bank of East Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. "There will be a very intense confrontation between short-sellers and China in the near term. While the market strongly believes there's room for further declines, the central bank will try its best to keep the yuan stable."

user posted image
Japan moves towards negative interest rates, indirectly helping speculators in their battle against China

Speculators who short Asia were helped by Japan last week. Thanks to the Bank of Japan's surprise move to a negative interest rates on a portion of bank reserves, the Japanese yen has renewed its downward spiral. This move by the world's third largest economy effectively put Japan in a currency war with its Asian neighbors. With the market already view the yuan as overvalued as seen in accelerating foreign currency outflows, the move to weaken yen just adds to the yuan's perceived overvaluation.


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/02/short-selle...ock-market.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-to-25-year-low
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong...tate-2016-02-01
wjchay
post Feb 4 2016, 09:36 AM

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the links don't work
TSHansel
post Feb 5 2016, 10:20 AM

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Good counter-opinions from prophet on Singapore. Not healthy to bet in totality on one single geography.
TSHansel
post Feb 5 2016, 10:22 AM

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The first initiative for First REIT for 2016. And further initiatives for LMIR for this year. Is the Lippo Group still bent on delisting these two counters from the SGX ?

....

February 4, 2016:

Singapore’s LMIRT Management Ltd (LMIRT) and First Real Estate Investment Trust (First REIT) entered into a joint arrangement to acquire Siloam Hospitals Yogyakarta and a retail mall component, Lippo Plaza Jogja (LPJ) in Yogyakarta from their sponsor PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR), said the company in press statement.

The purchase consideration of S$51.0 million ($36.2 million), to be borne by First REIT, represents a discount of 8.8 per cent to the higher of two independent valuations.

The joint acquisition is subject to the approval of unit-holders of both LMIR Trust and First REIT at their respective extraordinary general meetings.

Under the pact, LMIR Trust is entitled to the economic rights of the assets relating to LPJ as also the liabilities.

Similarly, First REIT will have the corresponding rights, undertakings, liabilities and responsibilities in respect of the hospital component.

Being in a strategically located catchment area and along with the surrounding areas in Central Java, Yogyakarta enjoys one of the highest population densities in Java. The property comprises a 10-storeyed building on a total land area of 13,715 square meters.

LMIRT’s Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, Alvin Cheng commented, following the acquisitions of Lippo Plaza Batu and Palembang Icon in July last year, and the announcement of the proposed acquisition of Lippo Mall Kuta in Bali on 8 January 2016, the company is looking forward to strengthening their property portfolio with the proposed yield accretive acquisition.

“Whilst we added S$362 million of new assets at end of 2014, when we acquired Lippo Mall Kemang, we will have added a further SGD240 million of assets since July 2015 when we complete the latest transactions in Bali and Yogyakarta,” He said.

LMIR Trust will finance the retail mall acquisition through debt financing. The Manager of LMIR Trust is currently exploring the options of bank loan facilities and/or issuance of unsecured bonds under the EMTN programme which was established in September 2015.
TSHansel
post Feb 5 2016, 11:24 AM

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Wishing all here who celebrate : A Happy and Prosperous Lunar New Year 2016. See you again in The Year of The Fiery Monkey.
AVFAN
post Feb 5 2016, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 5 2016, 11:24 AM)
Wishing all here who celebrate : A Happy and Prosperous Lunar New Year 2016. See you again in The Year of The Fiery Monkey.
*
hope it will not be a year of fried monkeys. laugh.gif
yck1987
post Feb 5 2016, 11:57 AM

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good rally for telco counter today! rclxm9.gif
yck1987
post Feb 5 2016, 11:59 AM

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http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-ma...crash-shanmugam

Govt won’t let property market crash: Shanmugam
this news causing rally or regular Friday rally?
AVFAN
post Feb 5 2016, 05:17 PM

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sgx +2.5% today.

some counters up 5-6%.

gong xi fa cai! rclxms.gif
yck1987
post Feb 5 2016, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 5 2016, 05:17 PM)
sgx +2.5% today.

some counters up 5-6%.

gong xi fa cai! rclxms.gif
*

. GXFC ! My M1 rally 8%+, Singtel 6% today

This post has been edited by yck1987: Feb 5 2016, 05:59 PM
prophetjul
post Feb 11 2016, 12:30 PM

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Accordia! smile.gif
prince_mk
post Feb 12 2016, 11:28 PM

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Hello.. today i bought some ocbc...start accumulating this counter. Advisable for long term?
prince_mk
post Feb 12 2016, 11:30 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 2 2016, 11:57 AM)
good for you.

1mdb saga continues into eternity, dragging everyone and everything in the mud.

crude price <31, again.

rm/usd 4.20, again.

reasons for rm to decline >>> reasons to rise.

so, keep yr usd, sgd! tongue.gif
*
Hi..where should i keep usd?? I only have Sg savings. Any suggestion?
AVFAN
post Feb 13 2016, 01:50 AM

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QUOTE(prince_mk @ Feb 12 2016, 11:30 PM)
Hi..where should i keep usd?? I only have Sg savings. Any suggestion?
*
buy us stocks! biggrin.gif
prince_mk
post Feb 13 2016, 08:06 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 13 2016, 01:50 AM)
buy us stocks! biggrin.gif
*
Boss avfan...us stocks up and down so fast..

My heart beats lile roller coster....

I better observe them first before going in.
djhenry91
post Feb 13 2016, 11:31 PM

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QUOTE(prince_mk @ Feb 13 2016, 08:06 AM)
Boss avfan...us stocks up and down so fast..

My heart beats lile roller coster....

I better observe them first before going in.
*
US shares sometime suddenly same day reverse split share same day ex day..
last time my client kena gao gao..
monday bursa no open so i no come office..
we duno apa berlaku..
next day only know and client oversold the share..
client scold me like mad dog..
next day company dealer buy back the share.. sweat.gif sweat.gif
TSHansel
post Feb 15 2016, 12:18 PM

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QUOTE(prince_mk @ Feb 12 2016, 11:28 PM)
Hello.. today i bought some ocbc...start accumulating this counter. Advisable for long term?
*
Hi Prince and everybody,... Gong Xi Fa Cai, and May you all thrive with The Year of The Monkey ! thumbup.gif

Yes, I would start to accumulate slowly in OCBC from now, especially everythime it drops below the 7.50 mark.

Was in Australia, and bought the Aus Fin Review many timies. Caught news many times that Aus is trying to becomes a Financial Hub, and in order to do this, they must compete with SG and HK. Hence, I suspected that some news which indicate to be undermining the strengths of the financial sector of SG and HK may be targetted towards persuading institutional investors and regional HNWIs and UHNWIs to move their assets over to Sydney.

I would treat those news by the AFR cautiously. ... To m, no problems at all with the three SG Banks.
TSHansel
post Feb 15 2016, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(prince_mk @ Feb 12 2016, 11:30 PM)
Hi..where should i keep usd?? I only have Sg savings. Any suggestion?
*
If you are keen to be a Fixed Income Nvestor and not a trader, then I will recommend buying into US-denominated instruments that provided good yield. There are a few of such instruments at this moment after the mkt selldowns and the drop in the price of crude.

Another alternative would be as AV said : buy US stocks. BUt if you are going down the trail of being a Fixed Income (Dividend) INvestors, please be aware that you have a thirty percent withholding tax against your received US dividends if you plan to reap the US dividends. The issue that you are facing nowis you have US Dollars in-hand, and you wished to maximise the returns from this USDs that you have.
prince_mk98
post Feb 15 2016, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 15 2016, 12:24 PM)
If you are keen to be a Fixed Income Nvestor and not a trader, then I will recommend buying into US-denominated instruments that provided good yield. There are a few of such instruments at this moment after the mkt selldowns and the drop in the price of crude.

Another alternative would be as AV said : buy US stocks. BUt if you are going down the trail of being a Fixed Income (Dividend) INvestors, please be aware that you have a thirty percent withholding tax against your received US dividends if you plan to reap the US dividends. The issue that you are facing nowis you have US Dollars in-hand, and you wished to maximise the returns from this USDs that you have.
*
Hansel,

can u share more abt buying into US-denominated instruments ? via fsm sg? can name few counters?

wow...so siok going to Australia for holiday.
yck1987
post Feb 15 2016, 02:03 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 15 2016, 12:18 PM)
Hi Prince and everybody,... Gong Xi Fa Cai, and May you all thrive with The Year of The Monkey !  thumbup.gif

Yes, I would start to accumulate slowly in OCBC from now, especially everythime it drops below the 7.50 mark.

Was in Australia, and bought the Aus Fin Review many timies. Caught news many times that Aus is trying to becomes a Financial Hub, and in order to do this, they must compete with SG and HK. Hence, I suspected that some news which indicate to be undermining the strengths of the financial sector of SG and HK may be targetted towards persuading institutional investors and regional HNWIs and UHNWIs to move their assets over to Sydney.

I would treat those news by the AFR cautiously. ... To m, no problems at all with the three SG Banks.
*
I already accumulate 2 out of 3 of the banks.thumbup.gif I believe on their strong rebound play when SG market recover.

This post has been edited by yck1987: Feb 15 2016, 02:04 PM
prince_mk98
post Feb 15 2016, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ Feb 15 2016, 02:03 PM)
I already accumulate 2 out of 3 of the banks.thumbup.gif  I believe on their strong rebound play when SG market recover.
*
I only started since few weeks ago. but last Friday, I managed to buy some OCBC at 7.45 and I think it is a good buy.

what other bank counters in your basket? dbs? uob?
yck1987
post Feb 15 2016, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(prince_mk98 @ Feb 15 2016, 02:06 PM)
I only started since few weeks ago. but last Friday, I managed to buy some OCBC at 7.45 and I think it is a good buy.

what other bank counters in your basket? dbs? uob?
*
7.45 very good price. rclxms.gif congrates on u bought at the lowest.
Another counter im holding is DBS.

This post has been edited by yck1987: Feb 15 2016, 05:01 PM
TSHansel
post Feb 15 2016, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(prince_mk98 @ Feb 15 2016, 02:06 PM)
I only started since few weeks ago. but last Friday, I managed to buy some OCBC at 7.45 and I think it is a good buy.

what other bank counters in your basket? dbs? uob?
*
Yes, I too would agree that 7.45 is a good price to enter. Anything below 7.50 is a good price, extrapolating the graph from the 2007/8 global financial crisis. Congrats,.... rclxms.gif

I would have gone in too,... but I was out of range from internet access and no terminal,...
TSHansel
post Feb 15 2016, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(prince_mk98 @ Feb 15 2016, 02:01 PM)
Hansel,

can u share more abt buying into US-denominated instruments ? via fsm sg? can name few counters?

wow...so siok going to Australia for holiday.
*
Well,... for me, I am currently watching The Mandarin Oriental Hotels and a number of High-Yield Bond Funds which are denominated in the USD. Dividends are also given out in the USD if you elected them to be so. These dividend instruments are now dropping in prices.

I wanted to accumulate my USD, and I would not want my divvies to be converted into the SGD as they are paid out to me. Hence, there are quite some mechanics to activate before one can really take advantage of being able to purchase good return instruments in the USD.
elea88
post Feb 15 2016, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 15 2016, 04:26 PM)
Well,... for me, I am currently watching The Mandarin Oriental Hotels and a number of High-Yield Bond Funds which are denominated in the USD. Dividends are also given out in the USD if you elected them to be so. These dividend instruments are now dropping in prices.

I wanted to accumulate my USD, and I would not want my divvies to be converted into the SGD as they are paid out to me. Hence, there are quite some mechanics to activate before one can really take advantage of being able to purchase good return instruments in the USD.
*
this is interesting.. how to buy these?

I notice some SGX counters div are given in foreign currency. Will it be auto convert to SGD ? to be bank into our SGD BANK AC?

prince_mk98
post Feb 15 2016, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 15 2016, 04:26 PM)
Well,... for me, I am currently watching The Mandarin Oriental Hotels and a number of High-Yield Bond Funds which are denominated in the USD. Dividends are also given out in the USD if you elected them to be so. These dividend instruments are now dropping in prices.

I wanted to accumulate my USD, and I would not want my divvies to be converted into the SGD as they are paid out to me. Hence, there are quite some mechanics to activate before one can really take advantage of being able to purchase good return instruments in the USD.
*
I guess you are referring to this Mandarin Oriental International Ltd. M04 (Singapore: SGX) Price USD 1.24 btw listed in Sg or US ? i guess you are referring to the one listed in Sg.

Can share to us how the divvies to be paid out in USD. very interesting.

This post has been edited by prince_mk98: Feb 15 2016, 09:25 PM
TSHansel
post Feb 15 2016, 09:49 PM

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The USD-denom counters have their specific currency determinations for their divvy payouts. We have to understand the mechanics in details, then adjust to our desire for the currency that we wish to receive the payouts in.
prince_mk98
post Feb 15 2016, 09:51 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 15 2016, 09:49 PM)
The USD-denom counters have their specific currency determinations for their divvy payouts. We have to understand the mechanics in details, then adjust to our desire for the currency that we wish to receive the payouts in.
*
So technical. I m using Standard Chartered Online trading. I will check with my side and update you guys later.
TSHansel
post Feb 15 2016, 10:07 PM

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QUOTE(prince_mk98 @ Feb 15 2016, 09:51 PM)
So technical. I m using Standard Chartered Online trading. I will check with my side and update you guys later.
*
Standard Chartered will have its characteristics, and other brokerages will have theirs too. ... Yes, in terms of receiving divvies from such co's, there is some technicality involved. Not so straight-forward. And it depends on the counters you are holding too.

Since you talked about Standard Chartered, I can tell you offhand that for MO4, the dividend given out in the USD will be banked-in to your USD Settlement Account if you choose it to be so, otherwise, it will be converted into the SGD of the GBP. But you have have a GBP Settlement Account f you wish for the dividend to be banked-in in GBP.

I'm sure you are aware that your Standard Chartered Account is a nominee account.

That's some of the 'technicalities' involved here,... not really THAT TECHNICAL, as you have put it... but quite different from the usual counters that trade in the SGD and can only give out divvies in the SGD. Then you need to ask yourself the question : which currency is more worthy for me ?

I have the updates here,.... since you said it's so technical,... smile.gif It's NOT technical. just a bit mechanical,.... biggrin.gif

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