Nobody knows the causes that set the ups or downs of RM. Its like gambling now. Even inaction is a gamble now

Huh ?

It is a fact that the 11b/42b company has a bearing on the direction of RM. Even Zeti acknowledged it. Bijan's saga causes forex reserves to come down is a fact also. Even some minister mention "trust deficit"

Politics is very difficult to be separated from national financing issue like RM depreciation. If no details is given, then the discussion may not be clear and meaningful

If it can be mentioned in RWI, it should be able to mention it here as long as it is related to the title of the thread

I guess it's a mix of higher crude oil, budget 2016, TPPA & hot money back to EM

You sounds like unker liao. While unker put no time frame, you put every possible factors that affect RM movement. Both of you will never go wrong

well I learned from the "best". put all factor in & u would never go wrong

same priciple applied. diversify your answer. so that 1 go wrong, d others can soften the blow.

Probably

When MYR up or down, everyone give a list of reason(s)
In fact, no one knows the direction moving forward except to predict which orientation

Some prefer show-hand, how?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...later-this-year

A new piece of news emerge and US$ outlook will turn again. Today stock market will be down also ?

If "some hands" are involved for TPPA, then he should be keeping quiet.

Showtime747,

I am guessing / speculating that somehow USD/MYR is related to TPPA. USD / MYR will be somewhat stable and MYR will be strong before TPPA is signed. MYR will go down after TPPA is signed.

It is VERY SIMPLE.

We will know soon enough. TPPA will be signed in a few weeks / months. We can compare USD/MYR exchange chart before and after TPPA is signed. If I am right, the chart will show a difference. If I am wrong, there will be no difference. Please note that MYR had appreciated 5% aka significantly after 10/5 (TPPA) meeting is over. So, if I am right, the difference after TPPA is signed will be significant at the order of 5% or more too.

It should be easy enough to see one way or another...

Dreamer

Myr is one of many em currencies flowing with the tide. Occasional change of direction is not unexpected and is opportunity for trader.

After mys graduated from us preferential tax years ago, volume of FDI lost to neighboring countries. Mys signing tppa is a foregone conclusion.

Mys gomen has the habit to exercise options to delay opening up local market, tppa unlikely to have immediate impact on myr Forex rate except for speculation.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Oct 12 2015, 08:11 AM

fundamental longer term causes are known; trading nations can't escape global financial market efficiency.

but... yes, there is lots of speculation and gambling at this time given such excellent conditions provided by world uncertainties and local politics. in contrast, we see sgd, thb, php a lot more stable.

last week probably saw rm overbuying, overshot.

now profit taking despite crude still inching up. but i think it will return to tracking crude by end of day.



just don't gamble too much, ya?

My peasant view on the up trend of MYR

- MAY be Tppa related but most likely no. They don't have any clear reason to do this.

- Crude oil yea. Most probably. Remember the gas lag?

- MAY be the ValueCap is joining forces in the stock in coming Nov.

- insider news. This is the most important. This is the first time we see bnm so brave after all the saga started.

哎。 说真的， 我也非常希望大马经济赶快恢复。 懂得在这个时候投资的少之又少， 看到身边一个一个的被那些经纪人游说而买一些不应该买的真是心疼。告诉他们冷静又不听。总而言之， 要是可以不管任何因数都好，赶上1800点， 3点2，还有还我们一个真真关心人民的政府。

Tldr, econ fast back on the right track.
-

Performed a close micro-observation today !

In the morning, afternoon and early evening parts of the day, the crude price was stable at around USD 49.XX/bbl. MYR was stable against both of the USD and the SGD.

THen later on in the evening, crude price strengthened slightly to USD 50.09/bbl. Immediately, MYR strengthened slightly too against both of the USD and the SGD.

The coupling and the timing was really tight. And the quantum of change of small too, related to each other.

More to observe to determine this trend in the coming days of this week.

I see a very highly-correlated movement here between crude price wtih USDMYR and SGDMYR.

good observation

so crude oil price movement is the main factor

i told u so! seen this thru n thru.

forget tourism, trade surplus or even fx reserves.

really, in the absence of other factors like fed, china and bijan, crude price is driving the rm.

but do watch the exotic bijan chronicles - i got a hunch something big is brewing there - can swing big either way.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 12 2015, 07:02 PM

Commodities is now correlated to stock market FYI.

So my take is, MYR will follow the same trend as well.

Last night, oil price took a tumble, so does RM movement this morning.
So currently the RM movement has high coorelation to the oil price.