Unker, the TPPA/RM thing is your own conspiracy theory or there are some good articles you read about ?

Why only RM appreciate so much while the other 10 TPPA currencies do not enjoy the "benefits" ? And Indonesia is not part of the TPPA but also enjoyed the "benefits" ?

Showtime747,

<< while the other 10 TPPA currencies do not enjoy the "benefits" ?>>

Are you sure??

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=AUD&view=1M

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=NZD&view=1M

Yes, it is my own theory.. We will know for sure soon enough. Let's see what happened to those currencies after TPPA is signed... We will know in a few months..

Dreamer

RM appreciate the most. Indonesia second. Indonesian is not a part of the pact. From USD point of view, it is more towards the interpretation of the minutes of FOMC meeting being made public than TPPA.

Just wonder why do you think USA depreciation is a "benefit" to other countries in TPPA ? In what way does the depreciation help the other countries ?





TPPA takes time to sign. Before that, oil price, 2016 budget, political development and economic numbers in malaysia, china+USA news and annoucement (especially from FED) will affect the direction of RM ahead of the signing

Showtime747,

This is a limited time frame event. If my guess / speculation is correct, we will see a change of trend after TPPA is signed.

<< Just wonder why do you think USA depreciation is a "benefit" to other countries in TPPA ? In what way does the depreciation help the other countries ?>>

Do you believe it will be easier or harder for THE GOVERNMENT to pass TPPA if the RM keep on dropping against USD?? Ditto for New Zealand, Australia and so on..

We will know soon enough. It will only take a few months for TPPA to pass.

<< RM appreciate the most. Indonesia second. Indonesian is not a part of the pact. >>

They do not have such a fine grain control. If they drop USD, it will affect many currencies. Not only those in TPPA.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 11 2015, 10:43 AM

It doesn't make sense to relate TPPA to the RM movement.

All EM currencies were rising across, not only RM.
While those EM countries are not even in the TPPA.

TPPA still has long time to go before it can be effectively "valid".
Countries need to sign the TPPA, then need to go to respectively (12) countries to table any change in tax rules and regulation, before it is can be said, now the agreement can be said to "start".

While there is little info what actually being known inside the TPPA, how can anyone derive the impact on respective currencies.

Somemore why big money in forex market want to purposely drive up the EM currencies, there is no benefit to do so, nor they are charity fund so that people can make a money in forex market.

It is more about the diminishing rate hike possibility and improved oil price that resulting money movement in the forex market.
Rate hike possibility lower that resulted treasuries yield plunging down, oil price up, profit taking (mind that previously the downward movement is sharp), were the main driving force of the reversal.
It is USD weakness, or profit taking, and a potential shift in money outflow.

We also saw foreign funds that were main buyer in the EM equities market, when the RM (or EM currencies) has its reversal trend.

High AUD and NZD is not good for commodity export economies like them.

I don't think TPPA has such immediate effect on the currency. You MAY have over-analysed

I just bot few k of USD @ 1.3985 with SGD yesterday. Still think USD may have further rise soon. Finger cross

unker dreamer don't believe in oil money

i think so too.

fed's minutes were the key driver, driving up crude (up 10%) and commodities prices up since - this is major impact, i'll say.

it is possible tppa news had a hand in moving commodity prices but since crude as the big brother of commodities is very global, i would think at best tppa effect is minor.

indon not in tppa but rupiah actually gained more than the rm in the last week. so did rouble.

mexico and chile gained less, peru even less - all three in tppa.


tppa is agreed but not signed, will be much later.

fed is now expected to "do nothing" for now.

i will rather watch crude price as a guide where the usd/rm will go.

well I think it's mostly got to do with crude oil price, some non fed rate hike tis year & people bring back some $$ to Malaysia than TPPA

Oil price up when USD is weak

more specifically, imo:

no rate hike = weak usd = rising crude price.

msia is 2nd largest world exporter of natural gas; gas prices lag crude by 6 months.

if crude continues to gain, rm will gain fast due to expectations of higher gas prices later.

if crude retreat, rm will fall fast too.

place yr bets!

Oil money looks like the single biggest determinant of RM direction now. If it increases to $60 by end of November, RM could very well breach the resistance of 4.00. If a Russian missile mis-fires into one of the oil well in Iraq or Iran, then $80, $100 also a possibility.

Then unker's prediction of 4.7/4.8 by year end is colder than water

Yes, in short term FED looks like not moving, and leave it to commodity prices.

Just a few days, the outlook is different already. Very interesting !

Unker will reply now v r in marathon
U could b leading now but lets c who cross finishing line 1st

yes true. unker dreamer thinks its tppa and not oil money.

Like that forever no winner or loser liao

The finish line is set - end of the year

but our so-called ministers say malaysia not oil exporter

dec 2014, crude 60, rm 3.3

may 2015 crude 60, rm 3.6

jul 2015 crude 55, rm 3.8

crude now 49.50.

i would expect:

crude 55, rm 4.0

crude 60, rm 3.8.

bijan chronicles still offers a hefty discount.

that's a half truth.

small net crude exporter, neutral on total oil products, large gas exporter.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 11 2015, 01:45 PM

if not mistaken, gas price are "lag" 6mth from crude oil price?