I closely monitoring the china economy news, I strongly believe that China will not purposely devaluate the Yuan, China intention is to have a stable Yuan and China had been using different tools, new policy to stop foreign capital outflow and dampen the Yuan devaluation expectation.

Imagine China foreign currency reserve drop about 94billion USD at August. China had been very panic for past two month how to stabilize the yuan. China really contribute a lot to our world economy.

The next big news is, whether IMF approve China Yuan to be included into IMD SDR basket. If no, then I am really headache as well.

Bad time to do oil exploration when oil prices are plunging. Unlikely to recover given the fundamentals now.

They are on the opposite end of the curve. More losses then..

Start to long MYR

thought this is interesting, just to share...



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 13 2015, 11:29 PM

Since he did not mention any specific strategy and reason for doing this, then we have to speculate. I reason this is because there is no more easy oil to be found,... the exploration activities will have a lower yielding result, hence, it will take more time to discover productive wells.

PETRONAS wants to be prepared for the upturn in oil price.

Not exactly,... if crude starts to drop further below 47, then it's time now to sell the MYR and buy the USD instead.

Does anybody know what time the MAS will announce their interest rate decision ?

Btw, as i write MYR is trading at 4.20 to the USD.

long rm = long crude = no fed hike

sure or not?

Good morning to all.

I don't get it,... you said you are of the view earlier: crude now <47, rm likely to go >4.20 tmrw.

So, it means crude will start another drop, and RM will be starting another bout of weakening. If you are a currency trader, you should start to sell the RM now since it commands more USD, and stocks up more USD as the USD appreciates.

As we speak, the RM has weakened this morning.

Singaporeans working at the MAS gets up early and goes to the MAS early to make their annuoncements.

It has been announced - The GDP for the last quarter edged UP BY 0.1% instead of going down further, hence AVOIDING A TECHNICAL RECESSION.

THe MAS will take the below move :-

Move the centre of the band lower

Shifting the center of the policy band to a lower level would signal the exchange rate should remain on the weak side in the near future. Re-centering the policy band lower by half a band would be equivalent to a one-off devaluation of 2%, DBS Group Holdings Ltd senior currency economist Philip Wee said in a note on Oct 6.

The Singapore dollar has fallen about 5% against the US dollar this year. It will probably depreciate about 8% in total this year to S$1.44 versus the greenback, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, which would be the currency's worst performance since the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

As of now - the SGD has weakened slightly against the USD but strengthened against the MYR. But,...... still too early to tell. Mkt reactions will continue to develop throughout the rest of the day today.

4.0 possible in recent future?

On the contrary, exploration prices are dramatically down....best time because development won't be so fast.
It takes almost 5 to 8 years before and production can be realised.

SG easing but SGD gaining vs USD? 1.3997

THat's right -

BUt let's wait for further development. ... The window tobuy more of the SGD from now will be smaller and unpredictable.

If the E&P (Exploration and Production) sector of the oil chain is down and is to the advantage of PETRONAS, that man would have announced so. But he did not.

Many big oil producers worldwide have stopped their E&P activities,... but our PETRONAS is doing the contrary ? MUst be something very drastic happening soon if they do NOT take this risk,.... That's how I read it, and this is in-line with the fact that he mentioned that Petronas' oil industry is maturing.

Many big oil producers are public companies. They have to be seen to be prudent in these times. Many of them are not cost efficient, spoiled by the high oil prices.
So depends how one company's objectives differs from another. Some may deem that they have enough proven proven reserves for the time.

Whereas for Petronas, their objectives will be from that of a national oil producer and not a public company where profitability may not rank as high as sustainability.

So depending on objectives, if i was a national producer, it's really time to explore and increase reserves and improve sustainability of supply than not.

PETRONAS has PETRONAS Carigali and PETRONAS Dagangan. BOth are under the umbrella of the PETRONAS Group.

I wouldn't be too happy if I am a shareholder of PETDAG.

MOney is money, be it in the context of Gov't or private sector. If money is spent in the wrong way during these times, then it is WRONG. If you are right and our Gov't wants to prop up their image by spending money in a risky environment, then Msia is doing the wrong thing again. What's more with PETRONAS needing to dig into her reserves now.

I'm sorry - I can't agree with this move,... if it is just to show something to the people. I would liken it to throwing away our tax money again.

i was asking why wiliam want to long rm now...

yep, crude 46.70... rm approaching 4.23.

china continues to show weak data.

crude has room to move further to below 46 below stabilizing this round.

rm should then cross 4.30... again.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 14 2015, 10:16 AM

Another you have to understand that E activities are cost recoverables in the event that there is discovery. So investment here is not necessarily bad.

Like i said if an oil company has no more oil reserves,what is it?
So in essence, a two edge sword.

BTW PetDag's expense should be lower with lower cost of raw materials.

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Oct 14 2015, 10:23 AM

Global funds have pulled RM23.9 billion from Malaysian debt this year and RM17.6 billion from stocks amid the biggest slide in the ringgit among Asian currencies. The yield on its 10-year dollar notes has increased 52 basis points since they were sold in April to 3.52%. The price of 1MDB’s US currency debt dropped to a record 72 cents on October 5 and was 77 late on Monday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. While there’s “a growing risk” that Malaysia could be downgraded due to weaker growth and rising private debt, “the country’s fundamentals remain pretty strong elsewhere and the rating agencies have so far been willing to close their eyes to the 1MDB scandal and rising political risk,” said Anders Faergemann, the London-based senior sovereign manager at PineBridge Investments, which oversees US$77.7 billion globally.


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