For those with some technical knowledge may it this steady your nerves. For those without, just read it with an open mind.

My China exposure has moved to -1.24 z score. This means that there will be more than 68% chance that it will bounce back to the mean.

What this means? Top up lar!

Xuzen

in page # 1 post# 1
there are 2 files that can be downloaded for use
1 is much easier to use but the other one is much nicer to view and analyse

top up already lo 2 days ago.

seems like you timed it perfectly....
sold most off just before the corrections and top up at just at the bottom...

IRR dropped below 6% for the first time in 2015...5.8% now

>69% chance better lar, 1 SD

i experience it many times d up and down in the past 3 years. can up 10% then become negative. really need stronger heart to hold on china region. You can convince yourself aim for long term la when market turn to downtrend.

This post has been edited by yck1987: Jul 10 2015, 01:05 PM

if can convince oneself for long term...why do one sell it off just before the correction?

Good read on China & HK:
http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/artic...na%20shares.PDF

my first china single country fund is OSK-UOB Big Cap China Enterprise Fund in 2012 and then swift to Fidelity(FSM Sg)

Amboi! Semua merah-merah belaka, macam auntie visit!

Nowhere to run...no where to hide.



This post has been edited by xuzen: Jul 10 2015, 01:25 PM


Attached thumbnail(s)

It is has gone above -1 SD liao... reversion to mean is highly likely.

Think of the mean or average as an imaginary elastic line. When you pull it too either side, it will want to go back to its original shape. The further you pull it from its resting line (aka the mean value) the more it wants to go back to the mean.

So in financial modelling, we use Standard Deviation as a marker from how far it has moved from the mean. Right now, the China fund has breached -1 SD and based on statistical modelling, it wants to revert to the mean (in technical term this is called regression to the mean). In financial modelling stats; -1 SD... it has a probability of 66.67% to move towards the mean. If it has gone to -2 SD.. then the probability becomes 95.00%. At - 3 SD... the probability becomes 99.99%. -3SD is the max liao. There is no -3.01 SD or whatever.

However do note that in Black Swan Event all calculations are off as are all the modelling will be null and void.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jul 10 2015, 01:47 PM

Yar though keep in mind it went +2 to 3 SD up since er.. a year+/- back
thus this -1D(a bit more) is no biggie gua
ie the stretching of the rubber band UP, snapped back down a bit only comparatively (to its crazy up stretch)
thus, still havent reverted to mean yet (the fall)
thus, probability of it snapping back up after a fall of -1SD(++) is not as per norm
thus, ie dont all in / sai lang yet but may be peck a bit a bit

Just being the devil's advocate here to see 2 sides of the coin yar

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jul 10 2015, 02:19 PM

Default risk climbs for Malaysia as Najib probe outweighs Fitch

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/d...ch?type=Markets

just made a quick glance
seems like KGF, EI Hsaq, Hsao, HSc all + 1~5% Nav...i think today if go home check the Xirr...Better result

All markets green today? Mega sales over or dead cat bounce? Place your bet.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 10 2015, 05:07 PM

dead cat bounce

Why until now (5pm)...some of fund price still showing 08.07.2015?

eg Kenanga Growth fund, Kenanga AP total return fund, CIMB Ponzi 2...

I thought it has to update to 09.07.2015 one right? so slow?

Don't curse me-lah. I am still topping up my China linked funds.

But I have no wrap account. So I have to do the poor man's version of the wrap account to avoid paying the sales charges. The transactions are still "hanging" in cyberspace.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 10 2015, 05:18 PM

IRR back tio 6.0%