You're the only one that works there?

Revised my fair value calculated above. If CPO hovers around RM2.4k next year, net profit would be close to 240m USD in FY12,
which was EPS 16 USD cents * 1.2 = 19 SGD cents. Assuming PE11, value in FY12 should have been SGD $2.10:






This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Oct 3 2015, 09:55 PM

But... same revenue doesnt mean same amount of goods sold.

A better comparison will be average profit generated per ton cpo in 2012 and then extrapolate to amount expected to be produced in 2016.

For me a conservative FV is around $2.30 to $2.40

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2015, 10:10 PM

There is an interesting write-up on GLCs in Focus Malaysia print edition for period 3 to 9 October 2015. Some of the concerns like what we discussed on the banks are in there. There is also another write-up on MReits. Go buy n read.

Can share the summary of MReits here?

can share the info

last friday US was good

If you got buy... scan n post here lah..

Why don't you go buy a copy?









pssst: I no read those papers before. LOL!

Not to say dun wan buy... but indon no sell leh..

Not convenient for me to scan. So I just take pic. Hope it helps.

I apologise if this is considered spamming and if the quality is not pro enuf and is raw without edit.

1. GLCs

Focus-GLC 1/3

Focus-GLC 2/3

Focus-GLC 3/3

2. GOB-PavReit

GOB-PavReit

3. MReits

Focus-Mreit 1/3

Focus-Mreit 2/3

Focus-Mreit 3/3

Guys, just wondering, I know some of you are Long term investors, some short term investors, some are pure traders, some play purely intra-day trading.

So what is your cut-loss level that you usually set based on the above methods of investing/trading? (e.g 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%)

Some people don't cut-loss, so end up being a long term investor and some become a forever and ever investor.

Or if you believe in the stock, you will continue to average down?

Depends on a lot of factors...

Some companies, their business, can go from boom to bust in a short period of time (e.g. DotCom companies, technology, discretionary consumer goods etc)
For those, I'd have a stop loss of maybe 15%

Some companies, their business have a low chance of dying unless there's some major, significant change in technology (e.g. O&G, natural resources, basic materials, basic foodstuff, condoms etc)
For those, I'd average down, maybe won't cut loss at all
This is where dividends come in, if u keep long enough, and the business fundamentals are intact, who cares about the stock price? The dividends will one day pay me back my cost of investing in that stock...

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Oct 4 2015, 05:58 PM

Dude...
You need to know yourself first.
You know the Sun Tzu stuff?
Before you go to war, you need to know yourself first....

Knowing what kind of player you are is far most important.
For example...you can know all the hop haa about trading....
But.....

If you cannot cut ( despite knowing the importance )...
Then....it's common sense you should not be a trader...

Or if you wanna be an investor...
And you know all you want to know about investing....
But....somehow....
You might be one who is easily swayed by early and easy profits...
You would end up always selling fast and short...
Unable to build good profits....
And might even end up holding a portfolio of stocks....
just cos they are paper losses....

Know yourself first....

So who are you?

Knowing yourself is one thing. But I believe if u want to do well or even try to survive in the market and make money, u need to be versatile and keep honing/improving your skills along the way.

U must know how to be a trader and investor for different type of investment objective, different type of company's, different type of circumstances and timing, just like what Pinky said.

Not one method applies to all companies all the time right.

U can use two methods or more for one company. Whichever poison u choose as long as can make money.

I'm just trying to gauge some of the styles/strategies the veterans are using. Can learn from discussion and improve from there ma.

So to answer your question, I am doing both. I do cut-loss when I am doing short-term trading, at 5 to 10%.

For stocks, which I believe in their biz model, prospects and FA, then I will average down (if downtrend) or just hold and ride the wave.

My poison to you.... don't
I always use only one method...
the one best method that suits me...
I don't believe in using more than one method.

If I know I am good at investing...
I will just be an investor...
And if I know I am good at trading...
I will stick with trading...

I just do not believe in using many methods.



Ooooh....
Short term trading... ?

I do not do short term trading.
Why?
It's not that I cannot skin a trade...
It's not that I cannot day trade...
It's just that I know myself...
I discovered myself after years of just paper trading.
And what I know is...
I cannot do short term trading...
It's just who I am.
So I avoid it.

But that's just me...
Who knows....
You might be a good short term trader.








pssst.... We are discussing.
For me... these stuff... ie finding out what one is good at... these are the very important first steps....

pssst.... I paper traded for many years.
I think it is outright stupid to mess around and pay tuition fees....
Money is always hard earned...
I respect money too much.....
So I don't mess around...

pssst.... if you insist...
for short term trading....
use 6% cut loss....

pssst.... if you are an investor.... averaging down...
I know...
common saying is...
you are getting the same good thing but cheaper...
so you buy more ... ie you average down...
the risk?
such thinking leads to mistakes....
why?
sometimes... you invest the stock...
the price goes down.....
what IF...
what if... the main reason why the price goes down.... is invested wrongly?
ie... you could either pay too much for your initial investment...
or... you simply made a wrong judgement call on the investment...
either way...
when you average down....
you are simply buying more of your initial mistake....

hi abg gark,

was looking at armada, hope you can give some comments:

1. Ignoring the one off impairment and gain from disposal, 1H15 net profit is abt 122m; hence for FY15 will be 244m if annualised
2. 90% of profit is from FPSO, but OSV and T&I segments seems to be starting to make losses in 2Q15
3. Based on the size of the 3 FPSO in-progress, their contribution would be about 75% - 100% of the existing fleet
3. FY17 net profit = 244* 2 = 488m = 8.4 cents EPS
4. Assuming PE10, Fair value is only RM0.84?

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Oct 4 2015, 09:33 PM

Is it? All this while I thought you are a trader, not investor. Haha!

OOps