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 USA Stock Discussion v6, Midterm Elections! U.S. Jobs Report!

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homeandry
post Dec 16 2014, 10:03 AM

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ETF is inherently to track those index movement, but X3 leverage sometime can be very hard to track by this ETF. Their job is to track those movement but sometime they can miss by miles on that movement also. So they basically tell you they will try their best but not guarantee.

For example, last week the S&P Volatility Index(ViX) spike a whopping 70% in 5 days, over the same period its ETN (VXX) follow through by a 30% movement only.
danmooncake
post Dec 16 2014, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 16 2014, 04:36 AM)
they reset everyday? that seems "accurate" in a way?
i watched them moving pretty much 3x according to how SP500 moves. Seems quite accurate....
and ya, i am more interested to play 3x, faster moving.  biggrin.gif
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No, there are some tracking errors on those ETFs. The longer the timeframe, the more tracking errors and also they decay over time too - eventho if the underlying index stays the same over a longer time.

For example.

Let say if SP500 @ 2000 on day 1, SPXS=20
Within a month, SP500 may go up or down and let say it goes back to 2000 after 30 days,
you will find SPXS will be less than $20.


On other news... did you see that 17% interest rate by Russia Central bank? This is absolutely insane!
I guess they got no choice because everyone in Russia now panicking and selling the Rubles like Zimbabwe currency.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 16 2014, 01:28 PM
teehk_tee
post Dec 16 2014, 03:19 PM

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North Dakota sweet crude price in latest NDIC release yesterday .. $41.75 per barrel hmm.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 16 2014, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Dec 16 2014, 03:19 PM)
North Dakota sweet crude price in latest NDIC release yesterday .. $41.75 per barrel hmm.gif
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sign of further decline for crude. wti now below usd55.

the oil rout is not over yet...
yok70
post Dec 16 2014, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Dec 16 2014, 10:26 AM)
No, there are some tracking errors on those ETFs. The longer the timeframe, the more tracking errors and also they decay over time too - eventho if the underlying index stays the same over a longer time.

For example.

Let say if SP500 @ 2000 on day 1, SPXS=20
Within a month, SP500 may go up or down and let say it goes back to 2000 after 30 days,
you will find SPXS will be less than $20.
On other news...  did you see that 17% interest rate by Russia Central bank? This is absolutely insane!
I guess they got no choice because everyone in Russia now panicking and selling the Rubles like Zimbabwe currency.
*
Thanks! I understand now.

Ya, I guess Russia is in deep deep shxx now. Double attack by oil and politics. Only one hope: china rescue. Otherwise, even if oil price rebound, if not enough customer, Russia still in deep deep shxx. shakehead.gif
ChAOoz
post Dec 16 2014, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 16 2014, 04:46 PM)
Thanks! I understand now.

Ya, I guess Russia is in deep deep shxx now. Double attack by oil and politics. Only one hope: china rescue. Otherwise, even if oil price rebound, if not enough customer, Russia still in deep deep shxx.  shakehead.gif
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Yeah russia in in deep shit, i just hope putin dont turn extremist and cause instability in the region. Side note china is also under stress due to slowing down. Hopefully no hard landing.
teehk_tee
post Dec 16 2014, 05:31 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 16 2014, 04:31 PM)
sign of further decline for crude. wti now below usd55.

the oil rout is not over yet...
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Not at all. That 56 support gave way pretty easily.. Sub 50s coming
Brother J
post Dec 16 2014, 08:10 PM

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This post has been edited by Brother J: Jul 14 2015, 01:57 AM
teehk_tee
post Dec 16 2014, 08:45 PM

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QUOTE(Brother J @ Dec 16 2014, 08:10 PM)
coming close to my target, as of now @53.8 lowest of the day.

covering 1/2 of positions
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good call
max_cavalera
post Dec 16 2014, 08:50 PM

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U guys sudah prepare for 10.30pm tonight? Might be another round of bloodbath biggrin.gif...

My malaysian based unit trst sudah bleed 13% withina month.. @@*
teehk_tee
post Dec 16 2014, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(max_cavalera @ Dec 16 2014, 08:50 PM)
U guys sudah prepare for 10.30pm tonight? Might be another round of bloodbath  biggrin.gif...

My malaysian based unit trst sudah bleed 13% withina month.. @@*
*
im just keen to see how much more KLCI can bleed from all this. fatigue could be setting in soon hmm.gif
but seeing insane collapse in the ruble.. hmmm

the russian bear is out laugh.gif

my40789
post Dec 16 2014, 09:14 PM

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anyone betting on russia stock market?
danmooncake
post Dec 16 2014, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(my40789 @ Dec 16 2014, 09:14 PM)
anyone betting on russia stock market?
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Be careful, the Russian stock market is not falling only knives but falling live grenades.

Average Russian earns US 12-13K/year just 6 months ago. Now they're earning 5-6K/year because
the rubles have devalued by 50%

The 17% rate hike overnight triggered more panic selling of the Russia currency.

US and Europe don't have to put any more additional sanctions, their own citizens are punishing themselves by selling Rubles and
buying USD and Euro.


QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Dec 16 2014, 09:03 PM)
im just keen to see how much more KLCI can bleed from all this. fatigue could be setting in soon hmm.gif
but seeing insane collapse in the ruble.. hmmm
the russian bear is out laugh.gif
*
The fallout from Russia also affecting other emerging markets.. like India, Indonesia and certainly Malaysia.
I wonder if BNM willing to step out to defend Ringgit. hmm.gif


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 16 2014, 09:58 PM
teehk_tee
post Dec 16 2014, 10:28 PM

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user posted image

this was published back in mid-July 2014, just to recap
teehk_tee
post Dec 16 2014, 10:33 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Dec 16 2014, 09:52 PM)

The fallout from Russia also affecting other emerging markets.. like India, Indonesia and certainly Malaysia.
I wonder if BNM willing to step out to defend Ringgit.  hmm.gif
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i think they're reluctant because they know its a pain game.. with household debt and all.
probably will have to rely on monetary automatic stabilizers like trade balance imo
danmooncake
post Dec 16 2014, 10:50 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Dec 16 2014, 10:33 PM)
i think they're reluctant because they know its a pain game.. with household debt and all.
probably will have to rely on monetary automatic stabilizers like trade balance imo
*
You are correct, raising rate is like the last bazooka here.
Russia first attempted to sell USD (their reserves) to stabilize the rubles.
Then, they know they are not wining, then let their Rubles float.
Now, couple of rounds of bazooka shots by raising interest rate. Still people are dumping Rubles.

Insane... imagine if we have more than 10% interest rate in Malaysia.
This feels like the early 80s again. Just park money in FD. biggrin.gif


Brother J
post Dec 16 2014, 11:21 PM

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This post has been edited by Brother J: Jul 14 2015, 01:57 AM
yok70
post Dec 17 2014, 12:39 AM

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QUOTE(Brother J @ Dec 16 2014, 11:21 PM)
closed all @55 shorts. all the way from $69
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closing? not expecting below 50? biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 17 2014, 12:39 AM
Brother J
post Dec 17 2014, 12:45 AM

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This post has been edited by Brother J: Jul 14 2015, 01:57 AM
mabsandcals
post Dec 17 2014, 01:14 AM

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QUOTE(Brother J @ Dec 17 2014, 12:45 AM)
nope, check the 5-min bar and you will know why I close.  smile.gif
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good trade

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