QUOTE(spring onion @ Sep 18 2014, 11:57 PM)
hey hey i am not clear about this. you mean that divy policy is just a wild spec? or what you mean was divy policy+bonus div is just a wishful thinking?
Refer post #2321 again.....Bursa Traders V5
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Sep 19 2014, 12:06 AM
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#741
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Sep 19 2014, 08:47 AM
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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Sep 19 2014, 01:07 AM) Boon3 Haha wa your poison quite strong eh. K la since you give brief FA 101, i'll try to test it while i caught something thru TA Steps: Check got profit/increasing; Then project EPS (multiplies by 4); Find avg PE; Then check the price; Check Balance sheet health (debts & cash); Check operating Income Then see how it goes As for the automotive part, i didn't save BJAuto in my watchlist, and there's this past proverb "Avoid the fox stocks" (you know who i mean). I know kinda irrational but thats when i'm just started to trade and hence the foolishness i guess. Alright yosh, sleep tight people The poison is working.......................... LOL! Think about it ya.... Yes, people do make charts... but for those instances.... do you really want to play the stock to their merry chart making? then think about the other possibilities... where events make the charts... such as stronger profits, expectation of stronger profits caused by corporate events etc etc.... such events do make the charts happen (best case again IQGroup - chart was literally loose and dead before the strong profits was posted - new era .... sometimes... we can find opportunity here..... via fundamentals... the charts might not foresee such events.... yes, events/news do make charts too..... LOL! So which are you going to be comfortable with? Which stock play is gonna be more meaningful? QUOTE Steps: Check got profit/increasing; Then project EPS (multiplies by 4); Find avg PE; Then check the price; Check Balance sheet health (debts & cash); Check operating Income The profit thingee makes sense doesn't it? Company makes more money, people buy their shares, shares go up. This is how it should be. Surely, you do not want to play shares the other way around, where sharks play the shares, you join in.... LOL! The multiple by 4 thingee... Most of the time, I prefer using the CURRENT EPS (ie MOST RECENT 4 QUARTERS aka TRAILING EPS)... You use annualise when there is a sharp increase in EPS... for example IQGroup again.... hehe... use this one since I have the screenshot posted already... ![]() If I use CURRENT eps, I would be adding 8.78+0.54+2.91+7.95.... I will get an eps of around 20.18 sen. But .... judging from the balance sheet and the cash flow, I feel the turnaround is real (sometimes, like chart reading, I can make error here in our judgement - hehe .. this is why stocks is fun. LOL!).... so therefore, I would annualise it by multiplying the latest eps by 4, ie 8.78 x 4 = 35.12 sen eps. This is where I make reasoning. Potential eps of 35 sen. company's share base very, very small.... net cash company - holding 20million cash.... consumer product - lighting sensors (in a relatively still hot property market, potential is there, right? plus it exports too!) adding it up... and then I compare to the price THE OTHER DAY at 1.40+.... the conclusion is a why not.... LOL! And then look at the chart.... stock volume picked up very strongly and with a solid gap up.... and then lending weight, there was NEWS coverage... RHB chipped into with a research report (though the estimates were way, way too conservative).... See how all the ingredients fell into place? |
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Sep 19 2014, 09:41 AM
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QUOTE(Hongchai @ Sep 19 2014, 09:35 AM) Well... I guess this stock would be sluggished until the discounted price has been fixed. Think simple. Just wondering, can I expect the stock to perform like Hevea after the whole private placement exercise is done? Hevea was trading at a discount when they undergoing the private placement, when it was done, the stock flew (of course backed by good quarterly result) So, the question is whether private placement for a good company is a good move? Or we should avoid these companies at all cost? Take Hevea case again.... After placement share price shot up. So we are assuming placement got the impact on the shares right? Which means... if we buy the shares just cos of the placement.... we then HOPE ..... yes HOPE.... the share price will go up.... but is that ALWAYS the case? I have seen placement shares having zero impact on the stock price... in fact... the share price go down too.... so if we conclude that there is 2 possible outcome.... how sound is such a strategy (ie buy a share cos there is a proposed private placement) to us? This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 19 2014, 10:12 AM |
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Sep 19 2014, 12:29 PM
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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ Sep 19 2014, 12:11 PM) very interesting analysis by you boon gor. so now game over liao? potential EPS off 35.12, current price is 1.85 so PE is only 5.26 times. still got improvement wor, boon, would u buy this kind of stock when it is already shot up?but potential eps is only estimation. In my opinion, this is the first real consolidation since it gap up end last month. Does it have legs? I dunno.... As you know, I cannot and will not answer you or anyone directly whether a stock is worth to buy or not. You need to make your own reasoning... furthermore... this was only a poisoning example only.... hehe.... In regards to potential eps... Of course potential eps = estimation. In our markets and any other markets, stocks are priced based on their future earnings potential.... this is how it is... this is how the game is played.... most brokerage, in their attempt to jack up the price target... will play around with earnings estimate... they will usually give a rocket estimate based on the assumption the company can achieve xx percent of growth..... and of course... they have the earnings multiple to play with also... else ... how can they have so high toilet paper prices? (search this thread and look for KNM example... you, as the trader or investor... you need to figure if the potential eps is a reasonable achievable target by the company... this would be your most important question that you need to answer for yourself... I cannot answer this for you. |
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Sep 19 2014, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE(spring onion @ Sep 19 2014, 07:37 PM) Want to be like this meh? » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « if you know fundamentals well... it's so clear the fair value is based on an extremely poor earnings estimate. it's crystal clear. Gark saw it straight away. Anyway to prove the issue... Fair value is based on 2014 eps estimate of only 8.4 sen. Fact: Current/trailing eps is already 11 sen. Fact: Current 9 months eps for 2014 is already 7.54 sen. Fact: Current 9 months profits have increased 76.9% when compared against same period last year!!! 76.9% growth!! Fact: Q4 eps have always been seasonally strong for Homer. How? Come next quarter report in Nov, you think Homer cannot get total year eps more than 8.4 sen????? DPS yield of only 3.1%??? LOL!!!! This calender year, Homer already paid 4.75 sen in dividends. Using 80 sen as base (that's how much Homer was trading when the report came out) , the yield is 5.9% la. 5.9% yield and 3.1% yield ...... errr...... very far apart hor!! Many read reports and they only look at target prices. They don't see if the target prices is based on reasonable estimates or fly sky estimates. |
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Sep 20 2014, 09:32 AM
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QUOTE(wenqing @ Sep 19 2014, 08:58 PM) If I am those analyst I will write expected EPS=0.11 and based on the average PE on furniture sector x8 with TP=0.88. More reasonable mah like this. Hahaha Nope. Firstly, you need to base your estimates on future earnings. As it is, you are basing the eps based on current eps only. This is not how they the market. LOL! You need to project earnings for next year, ie FY2015, at least. Why furniture business worth 8x PE when they have a much more solid cash flow than most other companies? Why? All furniture manufactures come from Sungai Buluh one mehhhhh? They all burn down once a year mehhhhhh??? Are we all so prejudiced in our small mindset? LOL!!! |
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Sep 20 2014, 01:24 PM
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QUOTE(wenqing @ Sep 20 2014, 01:17 PM) But remember that is the PE that the market give to furniture sector. And that also the "facts". Question : how to change the market perspective? Answer: By goreng a furniture stock to PE=15+ and let market know furniture stock also can have high PE also de. Sad but true..... it's the market perception and sometimes we can use all the saliva we have and some more we have to borrow more saliva from Auntie Yee, also we cannot change this 'fact'. |
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Sep 20 2014, 02:22 PM
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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Sep 19 2014, 01:07 AM) Haha wa your poison quite strong eh. I was just looking through some stuff... and then I saw this.... posted ON 2nd Sept (see post # 2082 ... hehe ![]() and then you said you prefer moon cake la... and then downtrend la.... Did you see the updated chart? ![]() not bad eh? then I saw your Sunway. ![]() also not bad... Ayam kambing? |
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Sep 20 2014, 03:03 PM
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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Sep 20 2014, 02:56 PM) Haha, where got hide. I'm here like a man! Sunway got mention ma when breakout. The next 2 days i'm waiting like hawk man, but lowest only 3.26, i'm aiming for 3.2-3.23!! Ayam iz sadding already Homeriz also EFORCE was not in my watchlist. So when you briefly shown the chart previously, i briefly see lo, ![]() You just eat poison already!!!! Time to go kai kai.... |
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Sep 21 2014, 12:31 AM
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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Sep 20 2014, 08:55 PM) saw half half only....dunno how to trade this stock at the moment.... stock has been consolidating for a bit too long ...... not much excitement.... having said that... friday's performance was a relief (volume was decent too) ..... after 7 days of losses.... |
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Sep 21 2014, 04:18 PM
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QUOTE(ThanatosSwiftfire @ Sep 20 2014, 07:24 PM) eh for manufacturing busineses like furniture do you visit their stores etc? I sometimes no sure how good msian manufcaturing companies are doing.. every time see their financial statements cannot imagine how good or bad their sales is... missed your posting.erm .. just for your info, I ain't no investor.. but I do understand what you are talking about... let me paste what I wrote before... Many have learn about Fisher's You observe the businesses you want to invest in before you invest in it. For example, if you think McDonalds is a good franchise business to invest in... you go check out few stores ... and see if the business is good from your observation. So if you walk in a couple of McDonalds ... and you find their business is pak woo ying.... then you know... maybe it's not a good investment... On the other hand... if the stores you walk in... and you find the business good until bang band sound ... you know your investment can't go too wrong... Not to say this is a bad exercise... however, such observation exercise MUST be complemented with examination of the company's numbers.... Observation alone is never enough.... For example.... talk Oldtown.... well observation alone.... is mixed. some business is good, some disagree..... however, as pointed by Gark, this is not good enough... cos the bigger business contributor is their packet Kopi.... and you only know if you read the books.... ref: post #2040 does that help? |
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Sep 21 2014, 10:01 PM
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Sep 22 2014, 09:05 AM
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QUOTE(Hongchai @ Sep 21 2014, 11:27 PM) Thanks Boon3 & Spring Onion on your feedback on Hohup You are welcome. Guess I will continue to hold it throughout the pp exercise Do also factor in that PP exercise do usually take time... Approval from SC is required... And the meantime, in most cases, the stock price tend to be suppressed..... |
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Sep 22 2014, 03:34 PM
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Sep 22 2014, 08:57 PM
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Sep 23 2014, 08:39 AM
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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ Sep 22 2014, 10:49 PM) Boon, what would be in your mind when a director increases his shareholding from 6% to 21.xx%? In a general sense, such move is 'usually' positive cos it means the director has 'belief' in the company.is it good? On the other hand... it's the shark market..... there will always be an exception....................... not forgetting it also depends on whether you are a trader or an investor.... conclusion? hehe.... there's no 100% fix answer to your question. |
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Sep 23 2014, 09:04 AM
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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ Sep 23 2014, 08:50 AM) where got hanging one? not all situation is the same bah.... for example... KTB. Boss buys Affin stake in the bus company for a huge premium over the traded stock price. For traders/speculators = they think moolah straight away! They ram up the stock price high, high.... but if you are an investor.... perhaps you MIGHT want to take a step back and ask why is Affin having such a big stake in KTB, a company which is rather below average, certainly not one that a bank would die die seek as an investment? Well... if I am not mistaken, many other banks had stake in an older bus company called Park May. ( you can search this news over google ) Park May was badly managed. Lots of debts owed to many banks. KTB then took over Park May listing status. If not mistaken, some banks had to take haircuts over the debts owed. Some transferred the debts into equity in KTB. This I suspect of Affin. Now after so many years, Affin is selling the stake back. And the boss increases his stake and pays a huge premium... Is this really positive? Well if you look at the sequence of events... it's laughable. the stake sold is announced after a huge run on KTB shares itself. ie in my opinion, the earlier rally was never due to KTB's fundamentals. now the stake is sold.... and then...... more incredible... a rights issue is announced.... errr...... and then.... a capital reduction is included in the shares.... see the complication(s)? Is there ever a straight forward answer in the shark market? |
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Sep 23 2014, 12:24 PM
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Sep 23 2014, 03:11 PM
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cheh! cheh! cheh!
so very the lousy stock! |
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Sep 23 2014, 03:39 PM
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