LOL!

Unlike me, you is investor.
Me trader.
You should not want privatization.
Why?
Cos you will never get to see your dreams...

You ultra sensitive one ah?
This is a stock forum la.
A forum is a place for everyone to share opinions, ISN'T IT?
and YES, hopefully the forum in particular, is one where there is DIFFERENT opinions being voiced out.
this equates to a healthy forum.
An unhealthy forum?
One speak and everyone blindly follows.
You want that?
If this thread becomes that, I will quit the thread.
It means the thread becomes redundant.
It becomes a bunch of cheerleaders!
LOL!
Pointless.

So shoot? LOL!


Yes.

My statements:




Did you see where I have made the 76% into a forecast of mine?
I am merely stating the facts dude.
Did you seriously check the last reported profit?
The profit stated clearly... this fiscal year nine month profit stands at 17 million. Previous year was 9.9 million.
The calculator will show that the profits increased 76%.

THIS IS MERELY STATING THE FACTS.
NOT A PREDICTION.

DID I STATE ANYTHING THAT ONE SHOULD USE AND TURN THIS 76% INTO A STONE CAST RULING?

I CERTAINLY HOPE NO ONE IS THAT BLIND.



*whistle*

understand mah?

look, in financial markets, remember, comparisons is made between the current reported quarter and compared against the same quarter the previous year.
This is how they do it.

And it's in my opinion, I feel you do not understand the 'seasonal earnings'.

Some companies... they will see increase in sales .... the same months every year.

For example....
a beer company...
the company will most likely see increase in sales during festive periods.
and immediately after the festive periods, the following months will show a slowdown.
This is the seasonal impact.

Same with companies exporting.
Some countries will see better sales during winter.
So the few months before winter, those countries, will BUY more... to stock up... to be ready for their festive year end sales.

Same with Homer.
Every year, the 4th quarter, this is their boom time.

Do check the 4th quarter earnings each year.
Their earnings will be better than the previous years (and also better than the previous quarter - the seasonal factor!)

See how the earnings boost up.

2012 Q4 was 5.689 million vs 2011 Q4 3.914 million
2013 Q4 was 6.950 million vs 2012 Q4 5.689 million.

2014 Q4?

Now I am just highlighting it as it is.

I dare not predict anything.

Too many Homeraddicts in this forum thread liao! LOL! LOL! LOL!

And look.... the facts, as it is, shows...

fy 2011 -- 10.811 million profit
fy 2012 -- 14.700 million profit
fy 2013 -- 15.118 milion profit
ttm -- 22.005 million profit

Your original statement (which is the CRUX of the issue) states: "at stagnant growth rm1, if a growth of 30%"

remember, the 3 quarters of 2014 already shows that Homer made 17 million.

So for Homer to record a stagnant growth...
if my under the standing of your england is ngam,
you are suggesting fy 2014 earnings to be 15 million also. (no growth ma... so 2014 earnings equals 2013 earnings)
the problem with this scenario is ytd 3 quarters, Homer already made 17 million.
So for total fy 2014 profit to be 15 million, you are suggesting Homer to rugi 2 million for Q4.
errr..... can ah?
*whistle*

same with 30% growth.
for fy 2014 to record a 30% growth, you are suggesting total fy 2014 profits to total 15*1.3 (30% growth) = 19.5 million.
which means, you are saying fy 2014 q4 profits to total only 2.5 million (19.5-17)
Which means, if I use the earlier table...

2012 Q4 was 5.689 million vs 2011 Q4 3.914 million
2013 Q4 was 6.950 million vs 2012 Q4 5.689 million.
** you are saying **
2014 Q4 to be 2.5 million vs 2013 Q4 6.950 million.

err..... that would be a drastic drop, yes?





LOL!

People chase after stocks all the time.
Most of the time... I have no idea why also.
Do you?



This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 29 2014, 08:49 AM

And how would you know I own stocks in this one?

how sure are you?

LOL!

There are many other fishes in the ocean.

Nope.

..... and this is because .... over time I discovered I am not good at trading constantly..... I tend to make more mistakes.

I paper traded many years.......................

If you ask me..... do the same la...

practice, practice and practice......


know what you are NO GOOD at....
and know what you are good at........


NEVER EVER say it's ok to pay tuition fees.....

It's never ok.

Some tuition fees can become so huge that it NOT only takes you out of the game permanently....
but it can also put you into a financial ruins for many, many years.

Sorry hor....
this kind of sharing... I dunno how to share.


ok...
got one suggestion...
take your trading platform...
ie which broker you trade with....

look at their current research report....

well.... which stock is being recommended?

well.... you can study it.... and post here.... why you agree or disagree....

GST all is goreng la...

You can do the maths....really.

How many companies gonna need software 'upgrade'?
How much?

How many software companies?

How much can one of these software company really benefit?


Having said that...
if you are a trader...
you will flush all the above into the jamban hole....

All you need to know is .... prior to the correction...
which are the group of stocks being led by current market speculation?
which is the leader stock?

Compare now....
LOL!

Isn't it so predictable?

So happy nia!

I guess you pulled the trigger and jumped into PM.

Did you check out the aluminium spot prices and its charts as suggested?

* *

I do not think you should regret....
cos this example CLEARLY showed you something....... *whistle*
which is...............

you DO NOT have to chase the lowest price to make money.

you can make money EASILY from a stock that is going up....
and actually if the reasoning is solid enough....
it's actually a much SAFER way to play the market.

here's the reasoning......................


we can see the aluminium spot prices rallying strongly this year...



Yes, there was a sharp pullback near end of last month......

but since then....

the prices had been rallying again....

compare to the yearly chart of PMetal....



we can see the strong impact/correlationship with aluminium spot prices...

now since Pmetal was doing poorly last year (making losses lor ) .....
PMetal prices were rather week to begin with......

but with aluminium prices SOARING....
the market cannot but ASSUME that PMetal profits soar also.... ***note PMetal's profits yesterday showed clearly that the speculations were spot on! ***
it's a justifiable speculation....

So soar indeed....
PMetal flew on the back of strong research house buy calls too!

but when aluminium prices tumbled mid Sep....

PMetal stock prices went into a tail spin too....
and the stock price correction was sharp too.......

BUT once the aluminium spot prices recovered......
PMetal stock price also recovered........................


*NOTE*
not all aluminium related stocks will benefit.

Take PMBTech for example... (saw this cos PMBTech also reported its profits yesterday)
The company is very much aluminium related...
but it uses aluminium aa a raw material...
hence when aluminium price increased....
PMBTech profits will be impacted....

This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 31 2014, 10:01 AM

No problem.

I just think that most people tend to jump the gun everytime they see a stock price correction.

They are programmed in their mind that ....

WHENEVER A STOCK FALLS...
THIS MEANS IT'S AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY A STOCK CHEAPER.....

but they fail to acknowledge the risk behind such strategy....
which is.....
the stock price correction could turn into a rout!
what is cheap today could turn cheaper tomorrow....
and sometimes..... when the big bear sets in....
the stock price correction...
not only run for weeks.....
it could even last for months and months.....
crudely put.... the risk is that they could end up chasing a stock all the way down.................

and yeah....
how much bullets do you have?
how many times can you average down?


one can do the maths one....


yeah...
some forums...
it can be quite dangerous...
I've seen some so called stock guru...
they have the AMAZING ability to forever average down....
and suddenly.....
when the stock rebounds...
LOL!... they have the cheeks to announce that they are in the profits liao.

Well...here's the facts.

Yalor... me better post before all the Homeroids come after me.

For the Q to Q net profit comparison.

2014 Q4 was 6.689 million - 2013 Q4 7.987 million.

profits decreased by 1.298 million. ie profits dropped by 16.2%

Verdict?

Fiscal year end performance?

fy 2013 -- 17.941 million net profit
fy 2014 -- 24.303 million net profit

Net profit increased by 6.362 millon ie the company recorded an annual growth of 35.4%.

Verdict?

Dividends.

FY 2013. Homer paid 3.75 sen. (or a total dividends of 7.5 million )

Today Homer announced its proposing a 3.1 sen dividend for the quarter.
This brings total dividends for fy 2014 to be 5.1 sen ( or a total dividends of 10.2 million )

Dividends increased by 36%!

Verdict?

With increased of dividends, one should ask if the dividends is sustainable or not?

Last year, 2013, Homer showed that it had 34.7 million in its banks.
Today's report, Homer showed that it had 51.586 million in its banks.

Cash in the bank increased by 16.886 million or by 48.6% !!!!

Who was it that said that this was a cash printing machine??
Who?





Final verdict?

Sure got.....................