PRC have serious economy problem.

Start from 2008, the shanghai index composite behave like very long U curve that probably last a decade for economic restructure. ( similar taipei index in 1980's )

There was once a super power country from a poor war torn country suddenly become wealthy due to industrial might... everybody thought they are invincible... economy was good, property market rise at unprecedented pace at least 20-30% a year, banks were lending like no tomorrow, then follow by stock market which is super bullish, everyone was rich... it was happy times indeed.

Then the rubber band snapped....

It has happened in history before... guess which country is this.. how long to wait for breakeven?



This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 05:31 PM

Indomee!

japanese "cough cough"

But cannot compared japanese economies at 1970's to current china now la.

Wrong!

Not directly comparable yes, but some downturns can last several decades, you will first die before you can manage to breakeven...

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 05:32 PM

if PRC have deflation issue, this definitely will happen.

I try my luck and guess it turn out to be like US 1970's instead. Still a lot of room untapped in China.

Better be bull instead of bear.

If really I guess wrong, I will not have any regrets.

I am ready more than 2 times my current portfolio size for my cash reserve in case anything worst happened ( more than 70% drops )

Will China's one-child policy ultimately lead to deflation
On top of that, pollution is serious. PRC may need to spend more on medical bills, and therefore have less cash for other things.

No play GOB meh?
No play E&O meh?
No play Tebrau meh?


Many property stocks out there hor....

I am not economist, so I don't know

But based on the Japan history, it shouldn't be the reason lead to deflation ( In my opinion la )

Triple bottom

This post has been edited by CP88: Apr 15 2014, 06:09 PM

No guts to venture out of MY yet

Well, I was referring to the prices of property in general

Medical bills? I wonder how many PRC worker can afford medical.

Cannot be lah... international trader

What project also you get wind liao. Sure win.

I wish. By the time I get the wind, it's all public news. We're not project contractors. We're only suppliers. Rarely do we get first hand news.

huh?

I know you were.

Sidetrack sikit....

Here's one thing that I observed.

Many have learn about Fisher's scuttlebug theory.
You observe the businesses you want to invest in before you invest in it.
For example, if you think McDonalds is a good franchise business to invest in...
you go check out few stores ...
and see if the business is good from your observation.

So if you walk in a couple of McDonalds ...
and you find their business is pak woo ying....
then you know...
maybe it's not a good investment...
On the other hand...
if the stores you walk in...
and you find the business good until bang band sound ...
you know your investment can't go too wrong...

Not to say this is a bad exercise...
however, such observation exercise MUST be complemented with examination of the company's numbers....
Observation alone is never enough....

For example....
talk Oldtown....
well observation alone.... is mixed.
some business is good, some disagree.....
however, as pointed by Gark, this is not good enough...
cos the bigger business contributor is their packet Kopi....
and you only know if you read the books....

back to properties...
I no know nuts about properties....
some of the property stocks is going crazy....

Oh... E&O, Terbau given the usual insane target price by UOB.
Usual la... their TP is simply very rocket one......

I give you quote using Uncle's helping hand.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triplebottom.asp