Let me count and see...

so every 3 months ....
a thousand ringgit pocket money from Homer?

so modest...........................

Don't have HLE.

The other day I got post chart maaaa.......

Not a buying opportunity meh?

I think I used Jupiter for that.

Kenanga same platform.

See a while?

Posted few times....


post #2192

post #2232


Remember BJAuto???

Did you see BJAuto?

Compare it to DRBHicom.

Same industry.....
why BJAuto fly so geng?

why?

Fundamentals.......

As a trader, you give this handicap away....
and you will see many flying ducks fly far far away..........................

Yes, there is always a chance that charts are manipulated, no doubt about it.

Now think....

this is why you need to know your fundamentals....

it makes you know what run is real and what is not.

meaning, which stock, you can trade longer ..... without much fear of it dropping or see the invisible hands shake the living daylights of the small fry traders.
meaning the trader would know when to sit and when to take the money and run.

Again back to DRB/BJauto.

It was a simple case.

You were fixed to DRB...
but for me...
straight away I knew it was perhaps not the better stock to trade.
BJAuto had posted very strong numbers...
numbers which are more a less visible to us...
cos we can see the drastic increase in Mazda sales...
its so visible...
so many uncles and aunties coming out with one Mazda CX5....
no?
With so many cars being sold... and long waiting list for the car...
it's simple deduction that business is good...
hence better profits...
hence better stock....

Ok.... you talk about seeing it in the charts first.

Ahhhh.... what's the best example for you....

let's see...

the 2 download posting..... LOL!

Here are the 2 charts again...





How?

Could you have seen that there was a trading opportunity in such a stock?

Would you have chased this chicken?



ahh.... I bet your answer is no.

look at where it is now....

would fundamentals help? (ie fundamentals would have suggested that perhaps this was an opportunity!! )

ok that was then (few weeks ago)

now? stock has pulled back.... can buy (or hold)??

I am not an investment adviser.

Stock forums is not a place to seek investment advice.

I was once a novice.
I read a lot.
Surfed the web a lot.
Practice many, many years doing fake (paper) trading (trading with no money involved)....

The shark market is a very dangerous place for a novice.

Many years la.....

I spend many years learning...
but I learn not like how many are badly advised nowadays...
I learn without paying the silly tuition fees...

not saying I am stingy poker ....
but ....
tuition fees in the market can kill one....

so... I made sure I know myself very well before I started playing with real money!

hehe86



poisoning time...
like I said...
we Malaysians...
our hobby is poisoning each other.....



Fundamentals is USEFUL to the trader.... so says me.

reference posting #1997

Company webpage: http://www.iq-group.com/

It's products rather easy to understand..... no?

Company does not have a good history.

You can see it clearly....



But the latest profits announced end Aug, that appears to be a game changer.

Read the edge article (and also RHB comments): http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-ne...-earnings-.html



We check the profit report...

The balance sheet....



NOT difficult to see one....

look for money...

see CASH and BANK BALANCES ... then look for borrowings...

20 million cash, hardly any borrowings.

Strong and healthy balance sheet, no?

Clearly not the strongest balance sheet, cash flow not that impressive, no dividends and of course poor past profit record...
yup.... not the most ideal investment stock.......



BUT... things are looking for the better..... yes?

7 million profit for first quarter = 8.7 sen eps already (ahh... so high eps number, straight away we know number of shares is very small - only 85 million shares.. easy to fry)

This is where I note something weird with that comments from RHB.
Usually RHB's numbers very sky high one...
but this time around...
the forecast numbers were extremely low....



As pointed out in the posting the other day (which no one bother to reply me... )
The fair value is based on FY15F. (this stands for Fiscal Year 2015 estimate)
In the attached report, FY15F is only 13.8 million.....

I was like.... what???
First quarter alone already 7 million mar...
the next 3 quarters of the year...
this company can only make a profit of 6 million plus only meh?

why so..... err ....... conservative?

Look...
if annualised ...
ie assume all the rest of the quarters earn lebih kurang same profit...
we are looking at 7 mil x 4 = 28 million.
or in terms of eps...
we are looking at 8.7 x 4 = 34.8 sen eps wor....
if use the same pe of 12.5
we are looking at 12.5 x 34.8 = 4.35

!!!

Yup... a possible fair value of 4.35.
And the stock price then was about 1.41.....

So how?

If use lower fair value....
say 10x pe...
also we come up with a fair value of maybe 3.48!!!!

so fundamentally...
it appears the stock is much undervalued despite the big gap up!!!!

So from a fundamental point of view...
this stock looks can bet. LOL!

What chart say?
Chart say breakout from a loose stock pattern.
Chase or don't chase?

*whistle*

And this is where we are at right now................



the first decent pullback after the strong run.....

*whistle*

Does fundamental helps the trader?

Can the trader afford to be handicapped not knowing a company's fundamentals?



Yes... when I first started......
one of the early teachings is..........................

it's all in the charts.....
forget the news...
forget the fundamentals.......

*whistle*


I tell you hor...
if you are in the market long enough..........
you will soon realize....
that there's so much more to it than that.

*whistle*

hehehe.... I see 3 downloads....

This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 18 2014, 07:18 PM

Interesting development.
Did they transfer the shares to the flying wok!



about time la...
those two...
they hold too many shares in the company....
they need to sell/trasnfer a bit more....
hopefully to some long term investing funds.

LOL!!!!

Of course I knew you would NOT have bought!

Do take a trip back memory lane...
and recall....
your hesitance on Inari.

What was the price then?
1.7+ or was it 1.6+

If you knew the fundamentals...
you would have known that the stock should have been worth much more then...
and if that's the case......
why let the chart hold you back?

*whistle*

another win for knowing fundamentals.

LOL!!!

heeeeheeee ......

Don't worry.... just throwing poison right at you only.... hohoho......

Last time the off market traders were smaller.
1 million each time.
There was one on 28/1/14 @ 68 sen
Another on 10/2/2014 @ 68sen
and one more on 4/3/2014 @ 66 sen

trading la.....

where got investment?

Bro, it's an off market deal.
Which means it doesn't have any impact on the traded volume.
Furthermore, the transaction was actually done on the 17/9.

Those 2 directors, they are the husband and wife.
They each own about 35% shares...

(yeah, not many funds will be comfortable with such shareholding cos it puts their investment at the mercy of the couple)

LOL!

I have no idea.
All I know is they need to trim down their shareholding.
Ideally, both of them, should only total 50% shares la....
that's just my view la...

Well, so far, they have been trimming it the right way... ie via off market deals.

yes, today is very positive movement on the charts.
stock was consolidating (trading in a trend) on a high base...
such breakouts 'tends' to be strong....

HOPE it stays to form.


anyway, as it is...
one can speculate too on its cash pile....
for example...
the possibility of a special divy...
or perhaps bonus issue....

there's too much cash hor...
I would prefer to see a special divy....

can ah?

pretty please...............................................

Err.... I could be wrong but I feel it's so normal stock trading.
stock was trading/consolidating in a range....
and when it breaks out of the range...
normally we will see a huge spike in volume....

so far Homer case...
I do not see nothing out of the ordinary yet......

Not many people (esp investors) like private placement one....

Yes, the market people....
they will sell the idea...
that private placement is good...
cos it brings in cash for the company... blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.........

but if you are already a shareholder/investor....
private placement means more share....
more share means less earnings per share for the existing shareholders....

actually...
I was surprised to see the non action after the profits results in Aug.
I thought the company performed relatively well............
but market doesn't seem to agree with my opinion...
oh well.....

Just a preference leh....
it really have more than enough money to do a special divy for Q4.....
perhaps a 2 sen divy....

capex?
Yes, capex is good..
but company like Homer case....
in my opinion hor (I can be wrong leh)
it doesn't need big capital to make money...
this is what so wonderful about the company....
it's a money printing business.....
therefor.... giving the extra cash back would be my preference over capex.

wait.... please take a step back first.....

this is just plain wishful thinking.......................

OR WILD SPECULATION LA..................

ok?


You need to see balance sheet ma... (in fact I have stated this fact few times jor)

let me paste again....



as it is, Homer has 47.8 million left in the bank...
and Homer share base is some 200 million shares...
this works out to around 23.9 sen cash per share....

so would it be a problem if Homer even gives out a special cash divy of 2 sen?
wet wet water isn't it?

OK.... WAKE ME UP!!!!

stop dreaming!