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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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Minolta
post Feb 10 2014, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Feb 10 2014, 11:38 AM)
Sample size, and SD plz...

Cap harimau survey company told me that price of properties will up at least 7% this year, SD is 2%.  thumbup.gif
*
Cap Kuda Feng sui power master told me in my dreams last night property go up 10% this year. Kennot proof oso. rclxms.gif
gspirit01
post Feb 10 2014, 03:16 PM

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Well, I was hesitated to share this as I dun really believe in Feng Sui. Since so many are mentioning about feng sui, hv fun with feng sui for Year of Horse!

http://www.bfm.my/2014-01-21-outlook-prope...-the-horse.html
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Feb 10 2014, 03:10 PM)
Yes some went through 1997 and a lot of them that gone bust that time is still quite broke now to worry whether property is going UUU or DDD. What I see now is that a lot "investors" these days did not personally went through that 1997 era and they don't really have much idea of how it is.

Try stepping in new launch venue and you will find most of the "visitors" is usually in their mid 20s to mid 30s to 40. This is of course from my own observation lar.

Well, IF this time did really bust, then it's just another economy cycle. There are bound to have people who will be hurt by that. There are winners and there are losers as well to balance out. For me, I think it is very risky this moment. I'm not a hardcore DDD but the risk to reward ratio is not worthwhile any more for me. The indicators and fundamentals have show signs of weakness and if look into the bigger picture of the whole system, it does looks bleaks to me.
*
Yup, I agrees with u. Sorry to say that based on some of the posts n comments. I believe quite of numbers here not go though 1997 n not even go though the best time in malaysia 1992~1993.

That y I mentioned before share can loss till underwear pun tak Ada but property, Watever u loss.... U still got the proprty there.

Dun be surprised in 1992 n 1993. Ah dog, ah cat n ah pig oso can make money in share market. BLR up 11%, ppl still borrow bank money to buy share. Quit job n full time monitor share. Once 1997 came....haziiii


Try to ask those go though tis cycle. Share safer or property safer. Really dun play play lor....
SUSjolokia
post Feb 10 2014, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(Minolta @ Feb 10 2014, 03:07 PM)
The right way is to proof that 1/3 out of all postings in an online site are flippers. How to do that? Takes lotsa time and effort to make calls and clarify. This will assertain the actual numbers of postings that are real, fishing postings (well known from that particular site), postings with overlap properties. ASSUMING that 1/3 of all postings for sell means flipping!

Or show proof from a RESPECTABLE article written by someone with inherent knowledge and qualification in similar statistics that one can just ASSUME 1/3 of all for sale postings in ONE online site to represent the numbers of FLIPPERS.
*

Just
U "assume" his calculation is wrong by unable to show what is correct ?

U should says u disbelieve his claim though u r not sure the actual figure, correct ?

In a way he is partly correct though, isn't all statistics r base on a pool of selected survey ? like the chinese new year meet up with kawan from unamed survey company, says property market still up for next 3 years..lol
icemanfx
post Feb 10 2014, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 10 2014, 02:53 PM)
Hihi, my last bought in mid 2011.
Anyway, for those oredy earned money from 2009 till 2012 n continue roll bk the money to property in 2012 n 2013. I dun think got any issue to them. If they got proper planning even though perfect storm in 2016 ( I oso predict may be got in first half of 2016). Coz they oredy got lump sum of money on hand.
*
Provided plan is executed and realized.

QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 10 2014, 03:27 PM)
Yup, I agrees with u. Sorry to say that based on some of the posts n comments. I believe quite of numbers here not go though 1997 n not even go though the best time in malaysia 1992~1993.

That y I mentioned before share can loss till underwear pun tak Ada but property, Watever u loss.... U still got the proprty there.

Dun be surprised in 1992 n 1993. Ah dog, ah cat n ah pig oso can make money in share market. BLR up 11%, ppl still borrow bank money to buy share. Quit job n full time monitor share. Once 1997 came....haziiii
Try to ask those go though tis cycle. Share safer or property safer. Really dun play play lor....
*
Few buy property in cash, hence, most need to service loan repayment and having negative cash flow on property, and many unlikely to sustain for long.

Believe current property frenzy is not dissimilar to stock in 1992 and 1993.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 10 2014, 03:37 PM
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 03:30 PM)
Provided plan is executed and realized.
*
Yup, do proper planning. Dun simply hentam n of coz dun too passive.
Sometimes no "LP" won't make big money. biggrin.gif
icemanfx
post Feb 10 2014, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 10 2014, 03:33 PM)
Yup, do proper planning. Dun simply hentam n of coz dun too passive.
Sometimes no "LP" won't make big money. biggrin.gif
*
If proper planning is as easy as most flippers think, there should be more than 8% adults with net worth more than US$100k.

KChan
post Feb 10 2014, 03:42 PM

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An old article on Jan. Interesting to read some of the perspective and the outlook.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...s-than-answers/

Excerpt from the article:-

QUOTE
The jump in property prices at 30% to 35% a year in some areas since 2010 has changed the sector’s profile and has resulted in an equally stratospheric jump in interest among investors, with 20-somethings piling in.

In many ways, this is reminiscient of the 1990s stock market super bull run when college students and 20-somethings diligently applied for initial public offerings with the hope of a gain. They trotted a similar path in the recent bout of interest in the property sector.

Siva says “these young people are shielded from the international highs and lows of the global economy, and the national ups and downs, and whose trickle down effect is yet to be felt.”

“The introduction of developers interest bearing scheme (DIBS) enabled many to buy properties they cannot afford and don’t need. The question is: Will they be able to get tenants? If not, will they be able to pay the mortgage when payment kicks in?”


This post has been edited by KChan: Feb 10 2014, 03:43 PM
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 03:30 PM)
Provided plan is executed and realized.
Few buy property in cash, hence, most need to service loan repayment and having negative cash flow on property, and many unlikely to sustain for long.

Believe current property frenzy is not dissimilar to stock in 1992 and 1993.
*
As long as u can service ur loan. Dun be so worry. Land value still there. Land ls lesser n lesser.
Share... U can service the loan or hold. Doesn't mean can come bk.

Y negative cash flow?. Buy property till out of affordability ?. No I dun think so. If hv.. Oso not many.
Negative cash flow becoz share or biz till need to let go property. Yes I agreed.
icemanfx
post Feb 10 2014, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 10 2014, 03:49 PM)
As long as u can service ur loan. Dun be so worry. Land value still there. Land ls lesser n lesser.
Share... U can service the loan or hold. Doesn't mean can come bk.

Y negative cash flow?. Buy property till out of affordability ?. No I dun think so. If hv.. Oso not many.
Negative cash flow becoz share or biz till need to let go property. Yes I agreed.
*
Calling accountants to explain, thanks


Kevin Chan
post Feb 10 2014, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 04:13 PM)
Calling accountants to explain, thanks
*
simple explanation why negative cashflow property is not an asset

if your property is rented with positive cashflow
you lose your primary income ... your loan is still paid by the rental stream. no issue

if your property is not rented [i.e negative cash flow]
you still have you primary income ... your loan is still paid by your primary income. no issue

if your property is not rented
you lose your primary income ... your loan cannot be service ... dead in the water.

the issue is losing primary income during a downturn ... can you weather the dry spell until you regain your primary income.
people sometime is so "full of themselves" they don't even want to take job at half their old pay ... wait for dead only.

it really depend on your primary income power to sustain your loan.
some people primary income is share trading ... so F U loh !!
simeonelee78
post Feb 10 2014, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(Kevin Chan @ Feb 10 2014, 04:21 PM)
simple explanation why negative cashflow property is not an asset

if your property is rented with positive cashflow
you lose your primary income ... your loan is still paid by the rental stream. no issue

if your property is not rented [i.e negative cash flow]
you still have you primary income ... your loan is still paid by your primary income. no issue

if your property is not rented
you lose your primary income ... your loan cannot be service ... dead in the water.

the issue is losing primary income during a downturn ... can you weather the dry spell until you regain your primary income.
people sometime is so "full of themselves" they don't even want to take job at half their old pay ... wait for dead only.

it really depend on your primary income power to sustain your loan.
some people primary income is share trading ... so F U loh !!
*
multiple income is better than sole primary income...
MishimaZ
post Feb 10 2014, 04:39 PM

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Actually some people comments really amaze me. In the end everything is just plainly economic la. Any money that comes in, must come out. Basics of business; when one losses money the other gains. People will pay RM2-RM3 for an item worth 50 cents if their feel the worth and can afford it.

Now economy wise, like China; our country has been pouring billions to give the construction industry a penile erection so that the citizen can have more job opportunities, banks profit by giving out loans (on paper), business owners profit by hiring foreigners to do labor Malaysians look in disgust at. Of course some politicians are not fully stupid to borrow for IMF but what they did was better, borrowing money from other bodies such as KWSP for their some worthless creepy projects etc etc and loosen up some building in-law guides which had encouraged developers to start building condos for maximum profit.

All these easy money and loans were one of the contributing factors that creates wealth and also paper wealth. And with wealth presumably rising among most Malaysians (not really, actually) demand naik, which we all know mostly are artificial. With demand and ease of credit, properties prices also inflated a lot. As the matter of fact, it is so obvious with MOST property advertisement today promotes LRT/MRT/Highways/Prostitutes/Gigolos/4-5stars/ Guaranteed Rental yield etc etc. What beats the purpose was back then such transportation was for the poor fags that couldn't afford a Porntong or Mawi these milo tins but now it was marketed as a CEO, MDs, executives, to parenthood and babies way of travelling and a guaranteed way to a worthy convenient living konon. It is said that by a certain year even kindergarten parents and toddlers also need to take LRT while carrying 10-20 brats since Malaysians are always so productive on the bed.

Someone argued that the rich are not bound to bank loans, which is brilliant for laughs. Fact is, many wealthy people owes the bank lots and lots of money but they can either perform their installments or roll over. Not sure how people roll over as I am no wanker (ops, banker) but there is always something we called "The System". That's so simple. Now the rich are buying properties in US during their downturn that causes property prices to drop in order just for 'in case' scenarios lah, because they know such wealth driven by debts may not last hence need an escape route. What is laughable is when someone says business also big risks no fast and big returns might as well go for flipping!! thumbup.gif thumbup.gif thumbup.gif

I had seen several construction tender documents fabricated so that owners can borrow a huge amount of money. Real life case, owner get RM7m loan, structural construction costs around RM2.5m, contractor and owner kawtim already where the contractor will return the rest of RM4.5m back to the client after complete everything lah. The rest of architecture and interior design works were done himself by engaging his own in house ID in China, where we all know the country of all materials thanks to their massive debt oriented economy that emphasizes heavily on overbuilding of apartments/condos/shopoffices etc etc.

Well, many still refuse to acknowledge the current crap the country is going, until it hits them like a brick to the face. When investors cash out, how many jobs will be gone? If costs of living getting unsustainable, will investors be that wise to continue using our manpower? Our country exports is getting lower and lower, how can it be logical if economy can get better and better? Lol some people study about investments so high also cannot understand.

This post has been edited by MishimaZ: Feb 10 2014, 04:40 PM
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(Kevin Chan @ Feb 10 2014, 04:21 PM)
simple explanation why negative cashflow property is not an asset

if your property is rented with positive cashflow
you lose your primary income ... your loan is still paid by the rental stream. no issue

if your property is not rented [i.e negative cash flow]
you still have you primary income ... your loan is still paid by your primary income. no issue

if your property is not rented
you lose your primary income ... your loan cannot be service ... dead in the water.

the issue is losing primary income during a downturn ... can you weather the dry spell until you regain your primary income.
people sometime is so "full of themselves" they don't even want to take job at half their old pay ... wait for dead only.

it really depend on your primary income power to sustain your loan.
some people primary income is share trading ... so F U loh !!
*
That y I said during crisis biz man n those burst hand in share market will put urgent to sell property.
They need cash flow come faster to cover n basically they won't wait for 3 +1 SPA only to settle the full amt or maybe they will ask buyer to pay 50%( example) first during SPA signing. They need cash. Who will hv more advantage in tis case ?. Still cash rich buyer. Right? If wait for dead chicken but no such cash power. Still can excepts very " ONG" lor.


Flippers negative cash flow?.. Where is group come from?. Salary ppl.
Coz the unit can not sell, vacant,... salary can not cover the loan....
Simply question, how many property can they flipping?. If bank loan can approve n still got monthly salary. Mean salary ppl still got the baseline. Should be tight cash flow instead of negative cash flow

Except the guys with tight cash flow still big meat, big car, genting highland then wait for die lar.


zenjet
post Feb 10 2014, 05:21 PM

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Hello Sifus,
I'm a newcomer, I have read like 80% of the comments in this thread.
Noticed the UUU and DDD ppl are just like ppl in casino.
(just learned these 2 new terms lol)

UUU: Enter a casino thinking they are very lucky and can make handsome profit out of it.
DDD: Enter a casino and hope for a very bad luck banker so they can win their bets.



KChan
post Feb 10 2014, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 10 2014, 04:43 PM)
That y I said during crisis biz man n those burst hand in share market will put urgent to sell property.
They need cash flow come faster to cover n basically they won't wait for 3 +1 SPA only to settle the full amt or maybe they will ask buyer to pay 50%( example) first during SPA signing.  They need cash. Who will hv more advantage in tis case ?. Still cash rich buyer. Right? If wait for dead chicken but no such cash power.  Still can excepts very " ONG" lor.
Flippers negative cash flow?.. Where is group come from?. Salary ppl.
Coz the unit can not sell, vacant,... salary can not cover the loan....
Simply question, how many property can they flipping?. If bank loan can approve n still got monthly salary. Mean salary ppl still got the baseline. Should be tight cash flow instead of negative cash flow

Except the guys with tight cash flow still big meat, big car, genting highland then wait for die lar.
*
Ok. I know of this case. Let's see the scenarios yeah.

"Investor A" assuming staying with parents so no need spend $$$ on his/her own housing. His/Her salary is gross RM 6,000 which after deduction shall be around (RM 6000-348.35-14.75-660=) RM 4976.90

He/She bought a property say in 2010 for RM 450,000. Mortgage repayment is RM 1941.85 (Base on 90% loan, 35 years tenure, 4.6% interest).

So now, the his/her Debt Service Ratio (DSR) is 1941.85/4976.90*100=39%

Then he/she rents it out at RM 1,500 (4% yield).

That would be negative cashflow of RM 441.85 per month. Ok la. No big deal.

--------------------

Now he/she use the tenancy agreement of RM 1500 as income documents to bank. So basically his/her nett income is now RM 4976.90+1500= 6476.90

Based on RM 6476.90, and assume DSR is at 70%, he/she is eligible to take a loan with monthly instalment of (6476.90 x 70%)-1941.85= RM 2591.98 which the loan amount comes to RM 540,594

So now with a new property, his/her monthly instalment will be RM 4533.83 for 2 properties.

--------------------

Imagine this particular person with nett salary income of RM 4976.90 have a repayment of RM 4533.83 which left RM 443.07 monthly if the rental income suddenly stop coming in. Just think and see if this person can survive any probability of interest rate hike, vacant unit without tenant or market slightly crash?

There are people like this out there.

And I have not even talk about how genuine is their tenancy agreement (there are chances some of them using fake agreement or inflated rental price). Also imagine those people who leverage on multiple more tenancy agreement to max out their capability. I'm not saying there is a lot of people like this, but I'm very aware that there is a lot people using their tenancy agreement to take higher loan amount.



Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ Feb 10 2014, 05:21 PM)
Hello Sifus,
I'm a newcomer, I have read like 80% of the comments in this thread.
Noticed the UUU and DDD ppl are just like ppl in casino.
(just learned these 2 new terms lol)

UUU: Enter a casino thinking they are very lucky and can make handsome profit out of it.
DDD: Enter a casino and hope for a very bad luck banker so they can win their bets.
*
Got another group. Dun enter forever. No win no lose. biggrin.gif
zenjet
post Feb 10 2014, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 10 2014, 05:29 PM)
Got another group. Dun enter forever. No win no lose. biggrin.gif
*
Yalor ~ FWG = Forever Waiting Group?

Thank you all the sifus. Really learned alot here ~

I'll follow this thread from time to time ~

be it sarcasm, troll or some good insights. thumbup.gif
bearbearwong
post Feb 10 2014, 06:07 PM

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[quote=MishimaZ,Feb 10 2014, 04:39 PM]
Actually some people comments really amaze me. In the end everything is just plainly economic la. Any money that comes in, must come out. Basics of business; when one losses money the other gains. People will pay RM2-RM3 for an item worth 50 cents if their feel the worth and can afford it.

Now economy wise, like China; our country has been pouring billions to give the construction industry a penile erection so that the citizen can have more job opportunities, banks profit by giving out loans (on paper), business owners profit by hiring foreigners to do labor Malaysians look in disgust at. Of course some politicians are not fully stupid to borrow for IMF but what they did was better, borrowing money from other bodies such as KWSP for their some worthless creepy projects etc etc and loosen up some building in-law guides which had encouraged developers to start building condos for maximum profit.

All these easy money and loans were one of the contributing factors that creates wealth and also paper wealth. And with wealth presumably rising among most Malaysians (not really, actually) demand naik, which we all know mostly are artificial. With demand and ease of credit, properties prices also inflated a lot. As the matter of fact, it is so obvious with MOST property advertisement today promotes LRT/MRT/Highways/Prostitutes/Gigolos/4-5stars/ Guaranteed Rental yield etc etc. What beats the purpose was back then such transportation was for the poor fags that couldn't afford a Porntong or Mawi these milo tins but now it was marketed as a CEO, MDs, executives, to parenthood and babies way of travelling and a guaranteed way to a worthy convenient living konon. It is said that by a certain year even kindergarten parents and toddlers also need to take LRT while carrying 10-20 brats since Malaysians are always so productive on the bed.

Someone argued that the rich are not bound to bank loans, which is brilliant for laughs. Fact is, many wealthy people owes the bank lots and lots of money but they can either perform their installments or roll over. Not sure how people roll over as I am no wanker (ops, banker) but there is always something we called "The System". That's so simple. Now the rich are buying properties in US during their downturn that causes property prices to drop in order just for 'in case' scenarios lah, because they know such wealth driven by debts may not last hence need an escape route. What is laughable is when someone says business also big risks no fast and big returns might as well go for flipping!! thumbup.gif thumbup.gif thumbup.gif

I had seen several construction tender documents fabricated so that owners can borrow a huge amount of money. Real life case, owner get RM7m loan, structural construction costs around RM2.5m, contractor and owner kawtim already where the contractor will return the rest of RM4.5m back to the client after complete everything lah. The rest of architecture and interior design works were done himself by engaging his own in house ID in China, where we all know the country of all materials thanks to their massive debt oriented economy that emphasizes heavily on overbuilding of apartments/condos/shopoffices etc etc.

Well, many still refuse to acknowledge the current crap the country is going, until it hits them like a brick to the face. When investors cash out, how many jobs will be gone? If costs of living getting unsustainable, will investors be that wise to continue using our manpower? Our country exports is getting lower and lower, how can it be logical if economy can get better and better? Lol some people study about investments so high also cannot understand.
*

[/quote

Like wise flipping.. prop price claimed by them to only going up and in the margin of 200k to 300k yearly..

better than studying investment..
bearbearwong
post Feb 10 2014, 06:09 PM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ Feb 10 2014, 05:35 PM)
Yalor ~ FWG = Forever Waiting Group?

Thank you all the sifus. Really learned alot here ~

I'll follow this thread from time to time ~

be it sarcasm, troll or some good insights.  thumbup.gif
*
Wow look at that LYNmarket sentiments product.. how u see prop market gamble ka?..

I guess should be more kful and prudent.. that " mesti beli dulu if not other ppl buy bo liao.. agree lehh..

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