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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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limch
post Nov 22 2013, 06:12 PM

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No one can predict how is market will be like in 3, 6 , 9 or 12 months.

When market is down, everybody will get hurt. Market will be up and down. So, be wise to ride the tide.

No risk appetite, go FD. With moderate risk appetite, go property, and lastly high risk appetite, go share market.

I know some are holding cash now waiting for market crash, so that they can buy something cheap. Some waited since 2011, 2012, 2013 and now 2014.

People learned from market crash. Government has prepared to prevent the market from crash. And the Government now is wiping out flippers. I was waiting for the repeat AFC, but that did not seem to come.

That's my opinion.

This post has been edited by limch: Nov 22 2013, 06:13 PM
joeblows
post Nov 22 2013, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Nov 22 2013, 06:01 PM)
I agree with you. Location is key. Get somewhere like Ipoh, even boom period will not go up. Mind you, when I let go, just that year alone, the price went up > 100%. If I continue to hold today, the pty will be worth much more.  laugh.gif
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Well, let's take example of Fennel in Sentul. Where a ~1300sqft condo went for a cool 1mil. In Sentul!

You think those investors are in for a good time in the long run?

I think some are going to cry real soon.
zonefinder
post Nov 22 2013, 06:18 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 22 2013, 05:49 PM)
Maybe, but:

a) You'd have earned even more if you bought at the lowest level in 1997 (25% cheaper).
b) It took you ~9 years to get a return of 60%, or similar to about 5% p.a. compounded, like mutual fund investments but without interest cost.

Also, that's Singapore. Please bear in mind that Malaysian market has much different dynamics compared to Singapore.

There are certain matured, established areas in Malaysia (in this I agree with cybermaster) that will never be too drastically affected. Places like TTDI, Dsara Heights, Bangsar.

How about areas like Sg Long, Rawang, Cyberjaya, Seremban 2, Desa Coalfields? Would they become the  next Bkt Beruntung? Even now we can see homes in Cyberjaya (!) approaching the 1mil mark for terraced homes in some projects.

Your guess as good as mine.
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By the way, your 5% pa compounded may be true if one were to buy cash but nobody in their right mind buys cash especially if its an investment property ( leverage). At same time, the property is also generating rental income whether property prices go up or down ( provided of course you don't get a lemon). brows.gif
boyslikeboys
post Nov 22 2013, 06:21 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 22 2013, 06:16 PM)
Well, let's take example of Fennel in Sentul. Where a ~1300sqft condo went for a cool 1mil. In Sentul!

You think those investors are in for a good time in the long run?

I think some are going to cry real soon.
*
i think it really depends, if sentul is able to replicate location such as bangsar / mk I do not see how it is going to be adversely impacted. This might be the new location for professionals, young executives and might as well include expats with such iconic residential.... With these (well to do / above average) population flooding in sentul, what say you????

Also please consider the fact that MK/ DPC was nothing before this, ..... takes time to mature...
limch
post Nov 22 2013, 06:22 PM

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Be cautious to go into luxury property, > 1 mil.
Office space also is a surplus.
If you buy medium cost, chances are you will be alright because the demand for this segment is still strong.
ChAOoz
post Nov 22 2013, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 22 2013, 05:16 PM)
"Property only goes up, never goes down ever" mentality?

Often most bubbles are never covert - the signs are there for everyone to see (like US dotcom bubble and 1997 AFC).

It's just that most people refuse to see it. Greed blinds the eyes.
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Yeah however this round there is no shortage of bears roaming the property market, postponing their purchases waiting / predicting for the next crash. All this will slowdown the formation of bubble.

When you say dotcom, AFC, or even the subprime, all those are clear as daylight in hindsight, but i don't see forum split half half arguing about their formation prior to the crash unlike our current speculation of the property market.

I myself is also one of the bear i admit, i hope for a repeat of AFC on the fed taper, but it had shown me humans do evolve and able to prepare for things they have seen / observed before.

I would say economic crisis is a thing we are not able to get rid of from the system, but a repeat of crisis with same set of conditions is highly unlikely. Prepare to get our ass whip from some unknown financial crisis somewhere in the future i would say, could even be from the commodity market. Its anybody guess from here on out.
zonefinder
post Nov 22 2013, 06:32 PM

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QUOTE(boyslikeboys @ Nov 22 2013, 06:21 PM)
i think it really depends, if sentul is able to replicate location such as bangsar / mk I do not see how it is going to be adversely impacted. This might be the new location for professionals, young executives and might as well include expats with such iconic residential.... With these (well to do / above average) population flooding in sentul, what say you????

Also please consider the fact that MK/ DPC was nothing before this, ..... takes time to mature...
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I tend to agree though I'm not vested there as I think there are better locations. Sentul already has a master plan with clearly drawn out amenities. With second MRT likely to go thru the area, its potential is even more promising compared to say Puchong or Cheras South. A million for 1300 sq ft translates to about 750 psf. Can't get at this level at places like KLCC, Bangsar or Midvalley. If compared to say You City at Cheras or Ecoworld at Wahyu, I will take Sentul anytime.
simeonelee78
post Nov 22 2013, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Nov 22 2013, 05:35 PM)
Aiyah, don't frighten folks like that lah icon_rolleyes.gif  Let me tell you a bit of my personal experience. I was in Spore in mid 90s. At that time, property there as booming and my contemporaries there never experienced a downturn in property prices ...ever, since independence. Same sentiments..pty prices will never go down...
I bought a condo in 96 close to peak in the market. Market corrected big time the next year in 1997. My condo dropped 25% and stayed at that level for about 6-7 years. Balls oso dropped lah but I held. Prices came back big time in 2005. Sold end 2005 with profit of 60%. Point I'm trying to make here is that if you have holding power and a medium to long term investor or for own use, properties is the best investment out there. cool2.gif
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Agreed...investment is not just keep buying/borrowing/selling...but ability to hold during bad time is crucial part in investment ...
Wiredx
post Nov 22 2013, 06:37 PM

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Its a nervous time for bulls...
SUSjolokia
post Nov 22 2013, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(limch @ Nov 22 2013, 06:22 PM)
Be cautious to go into luxury property, > 1 mil.
Office space also is a surplus.
If you buy medium cost, chances are you will be alright because the demand for this segment is still strong.
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> 1mil condo maybe at risk of stagnatation, but landed no problem (depends location offcoz).
Then again the rich r more cautious then simpleton.
(That why i said the richer u r the more stingy opps i mean trifty u become laugh.gif )

Many genuine investor (with reasonable holding power) r abit worried on the current senario, as many half pass six flipper wannabe without foresight may just turn the possible slump ahead into a crash (burst), those who bought late still hope for the 2nd wave 2010-2012.

For me it's plain simple, the govt will not introduce market cooling policy if they didn't see problem ahead, surely this is after consulting local developer group that the heat is over, any further speculating would cause the entire industry to collapse, i bet that the senario even developer don't wish to see.

Again one should not look at properties industry as stand alone other industy may just cause "Butterfly Effect" on to each other, when people spend too much on property other industry r effected, when other industy effected it may cause damage to property market.

Then again people often blind by greed, who with a logic mind would throw their life saving on stuff like buying gold at future price, receive interest every month later sell the gold back at original price .. expect gold price forever up doh.gif




AVFAN
post Nov 22 2013, 06:56 PM

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this thread is by default the continuation of the infamous prop bubble thread that got suspended many times and finally locked for good - for good reason, imo.

reading this thread, it is interesting to see more awareness and wisdom emerging.

if you search the old threads, the bulk of people insisted:

..prop prices always go up, never down, not even flat, sure make good return
..so many rich fellas, sure got demand
..koayteow fryers, tuition teachers, hawkers all make >10k pm, sure can buy n wil buy
..sgreans, chinamen, koreans, kweilos all in love with my props, wil grab all if u dun buy

so, with the new rules, same or diff?

genuine homebuyers have nothing to fear. for investors... the old gingers know what they're in for despite what they say in forums and do in reality. it is the poor cash tight cepat kaya wannabe flippers that shud know if they are now trapped or all is still good. but then, it is comforting to say "who knows"! tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 22 2013, 07:45 PM
limch
post Nov 22 2013, 07:15 PM

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My friend told me you have to look suburb for investment these days. You can't see decent investment opportunity within 20km radius of Greater KL at a good price.

People follow the reputable developers and infrastructure. Setia Alam is a good example. Eco Hill Semenyih is generating lots of buzz.

The government will look at all angles before taking measures. Of course, the government will not make property stand still as the industry is too important. It is one of the barometer of the economy, too many people in the industry.

I once asked an agent how come people can pay RM1k+ rental, why wouldn't they buy property? The reply was a lot of people having difficulties to secure loan.

I think the case is true because their salary can not catch up with the prices of houses. This happened in all the cities in SEA or even major cities in the world. They have no choice to rent houses or stay in suburb and commute daily.

All in all, the government is doing the right thing increasing the minimum price of houses for the foreigners. In some countries, foreigners are forbidden to buy properties.

This post has been edited by limch: Nov 22 2013, 07:19 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 22 2013, 11:26 PM

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Current bull run of property market is fueled by cheap and easy credit of U.S. QE. When supply of cheap and easy credit ceased with U.S QE, credit available to new buyers will be more expensive and less i.e. volume of transaction will be reduced.

Many flippers are expecting a quick subsales after taken vp. If credit is not readily available to buyers, these flippers will have no choice but to hold. Given some flippers don't have the ability to hold, some will inevitably fail to keep up with loan repayment i.e. npl. If npl is on the rise, bnm and banks will curtail lending especially in that sector and making credit even harder to come by for buyers. Consequently, more flippers will become npl and the situation deteriorate further.

Given multiple number of property many flippers bought and number of loan given to people who were not qualify pre-2008, over 5% housing loan turn npl when it comes to crunch time is almost certain and understatement.

brother love
post Nov 22 2013, 11:50 PM

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when u see everybody figjhting to place their bookings on 500-600sf studio costing RM600K ++, ITS TIME to take a step back and ponder...developers oso culprit, Block A launch (example) RM500K, Block B (one month later) RM650K, and 3rd Block (maybe 2-3 months later) at RM750K, u begin to wonder is there any logic and fundamental to these price increass? (especially when condo next door selling for less for 2x the built up
yusiang
post Nov 23 2013, 12:08 AM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Nov 22 2013, 05:35 PM)
Aiyah, don't frighten folks like that lah icon_rolleyes.gif  Let me tell you a bit of my personal experience. I was in Spore in mid 90s. At that time, property there as booming and my contemporaries there never experienced a downturn in property prices ...ever, since independence. Same sentiments..pty prices will never go down...
I bought a condo in 96 close to peak in the market. Market corrected big time the next year in 1997. My condo dropped 25% and stayed at that level for about 6-7 years. Balls oso dropped lah but I held. Prices came back big time in 2005. Sold end 2005 with profit of 60%. Point I'm trying to make here is that if you have holding power and a medium to long term investor or for own use, properties is the best investment out there. cool2.gif
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It is very dangerous when you use Singaporean property as an example to illustrate that the property in Malaysia will rise forever, without considering that Singapore is an island with limited lands and they have a brilliant administration which does its best to attract the foreign expats to live/work/invest there.
zonefinder
post Nov 23 2013, 12:32 AM

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QUOTE(yusiang @ Nov 23 2013, 12:08 AM)
It is very dangerous when you use Singaporean property as an example to illustrate that the property in Malaysia will rise forever, without considering that Singapore is an island with limited lands and they have a brilliant administration which does its best to attract the foreign expats to live/work/invest there.
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Please lah, why get so excited just because I used Singapore as an example.. doh.gif ..the point which I'm driving at is that if one is to go in for medium and long term, property investments in the right locations is still the best despite corrections along the way. Are you saying that because of our lousy BN govt and its corruption that our property market will burn to the ground and that I have mislead everyone by using the wrong example? I'm sure the forumers here are a lot more mature than you think.
shinebr8
post Nov 23 2013, 12:34 AM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Nov 23 2013, 12:32 AM)
Please lah, why get so excited just because I used Singapore as an example.. doh.gif ..the point which I'm driving at is that if one is to go in for medium and long term, property investments in the right locations is still the best despite corrections along the way. Are you saying that because of our lousy BN govt and its corruption that our property market will burn to the ground and that I have mislead everyone by using the wrong example? I'm sure the forumers here are a lot more mature than you think.
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Agreed. I undrstd yr points
yusiang
post Nov 23 2013, 03:13 AM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Nov 23 2013, 12:32 AM)
Please lah, why get so excited just because I used Singapore as an example.. doh.gif ..the point which I'm driving at is that if one is to go in for medium and long term, property investments in the right locations is still the best despite corrections along the way. Are you saying that because of our lousy BN govt and its corruption that our property market will burn to the ground and that I have mislead everyone by using the wrong example? I'm sure the forumers here are a lot more mature than you think.
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You are the one getting so excited about BN government, I didn't even mention anything about corruption. What I said is that Singapore has limited land and their policy attracts expats, I am sure that the forumers here understand simple statement like that.
esy
post Nov 23 2013, 09:47 AM

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... there seems to be lots of Malaysia millionaire from the way I am reading these posting here on property ... property that cost millions also finish sell and 500k people buying 2 to 3 units like buying maggi mee until no more available ... dun-ply-ply-eh ... laugh.gif ...
SUSjolokia
post Nov 23 2013, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(esy @ Nov 23 2013, 09:47 AM)
... there seems to be lots of Malaysia millionaire from the way I am reading these posting here on property ... property that cost millions also finish sell and 500k people buying 2 to 3 units like buying maggi mee until no more available ... dun-ply-ply-eh ... laugh.gif ...
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Aiyah nowadays millionaires become sap sap sui already, own a landed property also make u millionaire already..lol

If the bubble continue we might become Zimbabwe where everyone is a Billionaire. .kakaka

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