Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

views
     
cranx
post Nov 17 2013, 10:19 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...e-for-a-crisis/

QUOTE
GEORGE TOWN: The government should prepare the people for a possibility of a financial crisis that could affect Malaysia come 2015.

Stressing that he is not trying to create a panic nor to gain politically mileage, DAP MP Liew Chin Tong urged stakeholders to come up with ideas on how Malaysia could weather such an eventuality.

“We should not mask ourselves with the goodwill our economy brings today. We must be prepared for future challenges,” he said.

For starters, Liew said that the soon to be adopted Goods and Services Tax (GST) would burn holes in the pockets of the lower and the middle income earners in the country, which would hurt domestic demand, the main driver of the nation’s economy.

Liew warned with GST, cost of living would skyrocket, which in turn would increase inflationary pressure on consumers.

“Malaysia may go the way of Europe and US by falling into a recession due to higher costing of goods and services, which will spike our inflation rate,” he said.

The DAP leader also said that the government should take into consideration the possibility of fuel prices going down in the global market, which would affect Petronas’ profits.

“Petronas in the main contributor the nation’s coffers. If it’s profits dwindle, it means that the country will have lesser money to contribute for government expenditure,” said Liew.

He added that the rising household debt ratio to the gross domestic product (GDP) and the recent downgrade by Fitch Ratings would affect the nation’s borrowings in the future.

“And will the property bubble in Malaysia implode anytime soon? he asked, as it seems to be running out of control speculations.

Liew added that the political impasse and the racial polarisation in Malaysia would also have an effect on the nation’s economic growth.

‘Oil palm prices under pressure’

On the external factor, Liew said that the government should be concerned if the US government decided to cut costs in its imports.

“The manufacturing sector will be drastically affected if US producers cut costs,” he said.

The parliamentarian also said that palm oil prices in the global market are under pressure due to competition from soya

“It will directly affect Malaysia’s agriculture sector, which is largely run by the lower and middle income groups,” said Liew.

Hence, the Kluang MP extends an invitation to the likes of economists, technocrats, socialists and politicians to deliberate on the matter, in order to find solutions in the event the country’s economy nosedives in 2015.

cranx
post Nov 25 2013, 01:05 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 19 2013, 01:27 PM)
The issue is that everybody is looking at new launches and the number of ppl lining up to buy. But how many ppl are observing the secondary market? Are sales as good? Everybody assumes that they will be able to sell after VP as easily as they bought it during the launch. That's the main problem. Not many of the ppl who go around investing in new launches with the herd mentality have any idea what-so-ever- of the situation in the secondary market. They don't understand that the factors which helped them invest in new launches (DIBS, free SPA, free loan fees, no valuation, etc) are not gonna be present during subsale. Plus you will be competing against a few hundred other owners with the same intention. That's how it becomes a buyer's market.

This is what I said in the Fennel thread today.
*
hmm, did you buy any this year?
anyway not sure if anyone posted the below..for sharing.

http://www.stproperty.sg/articles-property...market/a/142407

QUOTE
AFTER a noticeable decline in home transactions this year, Malaysia's property market is expected to slow down further when more stringent guidelines take effect next year, with hot spots such as the Kuala Lumpur city centre and Iskandar's Nusajaya being hit harder.

These were some of the findings by Rahim & Co Chartered Surveyors on the anticipated impact a higher rate of real property gains tax (30 per cent) and the banning of the Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) would have on the sector.

As the property hot spot of 2013, Johor will come in for greater scrutiny after showing robust growth.

In the first six months of the year, there was an overall 12.6 per cent decline in residential transactions in Malaysia over the previous year. While huge drops were seen in the top hubs of Kuala Lumpur (47.5 per cent), Selangor (16.2 per cent) and Penang (28.1 per cent), Johor registered a 4.9 per cent increase, data from the Ministry of Finance's Valuation & Property Services Department showed.

The southern state's transaction value was also telling, expanding a hefty 38 per cent compared with the countrywide average of 1.1 per cent. Johor's figures were all the more significant given the declines recorded by other states. Kuala Lumpur's was especially large at 26 per cent while for Selangor and Penang, the dip was 0.6 and 4.4 per cent respectively.

Rahim & Co expects the effect to be felt most in the residential and Soho (small office/home office), Sovo (small office versatile office) and shop-offices segments, but thinks this could plateau off.

It suggested that speculative activities could have been better curbed if additional stamp duties were levied on third properties and above, as Singapore and Hong Kong have done, noting that this would complement the current 70 per cent loan-to-value ratio on outstanding mortgages on third properties.

Whether home prices will trend down remains to be seen. In Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, prices have risen by double-digits from 2008 to 2012, partly because of easy credit and low interest rates. DIBS in particular - allowed to flourish for the past five to six years - encouraged speculation because of its overly low entry barrier, which in turn promoted hyperactivity in the market. "Hyperactivity increases the frequency of transactions and completion of sale phases, which in turn increases prices as developers tend to revise their pricing upwards every time they commence with new phasing/launching," noted Rahim & Co.

Not surprisingly, the transaction numbers for residential properties priced below RM250,000 (S$97,800) have fallen by a fifth in the first half owing to shrinking supply. For homes priced above RM250,000, there was a 9.2 per cent increase.

As for the new price threshold of RM1 million for foreign buyers, Rahim & Co reckoned the impact of the hike was "not major".

Foreign buyers account for 5.5 per cent of the local property market, and their presence is highest in Kuala Lumpur (10-16 per cent), followed by Johor (10-14 per cent) and Penang (6-7 per cent), according to Malaysia Property Inc.

cranx
post Dec 15 2013, 10:18 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
old article, a good read especially the part in blue.

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/investing/...s-bubble-1.aspx

How can you spot a bubble?

Have your personal finances ever gotten clobbered by an asset class bubble?

If your portfolio blew up in 2000 when Internet stocks imploded, or if you bought a home between 2004 and 2006 and now find yourself upside down in your mortgage, you know firsthand the devastating effects of an asset class bubble.

Asset class bubbles defy easy explanation and identification. There is no defining threshold that announces the beginning of effervescent economic conditions, and no easily identifiable tipping point that precedes the inevitable pop.

However, most bubbles share certain characteristics that set boom-and-bust cycles apart from the supply-and-demand dynamics that normally govern most markets.

In his recent book, "Boombustology: Spotting financial bubbles before they burst," Vikram Mansharamani took a multi-disciplinary approach to studying bubbles and identified traits shared by five infamous boom-and-bust cycles.

Watch out for these five signs of an asset class bubble.

Sign No. 1: mispriced assets

The first trait is a glitch in the mechanism for setting prices. After all, the most obvious characteristic of bubbles is skyrocketing prices apropos of nothing.

In a free market where the forces of supply and demand set the price of an asset, prices tend toward an equilibrium between what someone is willing to pay for something and the price at which someone else is willing to sell it.

But in bubbles, increased prices produce more demand, which sends prices far above the inherent value of the asset.

For example, investors commonly use valuation ratios to determine if stocks are cheap or expensive.

"For stocks of a particular type of firm in a particular industry, there is typically a ratio or boundary of ratios that seem reasonable or in line with the fundamental value," says Peter Rodriguez, associate professor of business administration and director of the Center for Global Initiatives at the Darden School of Business at the University of Virginia.

When an entire industry or group breaks out of that range, it can be indicative of bubbly conditions.

Determining the value of assets is not always so straightforward. The more esoteric or exotic the investment, the more easily valuation lines are blurred. Internet stocks in the 1990s blurred that line, as do emerging markets stocks from time to time.

Sign No. 2: easy credit

One characteristic of nearly all bubbles is the heavy use of leverage "or the use of debt vehicles to fund additional purchases on the expectation that the value will continue to rise and rise," says Rodriguez.

According Mansharamani, three dynamics of easy money can lead to bubbles.

Financial innovation: Financial institutions evolve with the times. When economic conditions are conducive to easy credit and excessive risk, products emerge that enable consumers to borrow too much money. Example: interest-only mortgage loans.

Cheap money: Low interest rates on loans make money cheap. "When I say that money is too cheaply priced, I mean that interest rates are far below where they would naturally occur if you had a freely floating interest rate model rather than one where a central banker sets the interest rates," says Mansharamani.

Moral hazard: When individuals are protected from risk, they behave differently than if they had to live with the consequences. If they can't fail, they take more risks. The same is true of financial institutions and corporations.

Sign No. 3: confident consumption

Pride goes before a fall, and hubris is always involved in bubbles. Conspicuous consumption and overconfidence go hand in hand.

"Generally, this overconfidence manifests itself in world records -- for instance, in prices of art and wine or even the world's tallest skyscraper," says Mansharamani.

Technological innovations can also impel investors to believe that this time is different, that the world is fundamentally changed and a new era is underway.

Sign No. 4: political manipulation

Another characteristic of past bubbles is the heavy hand of the government reaching in to stir up the free market pot with regulations and price manipulation, according to Mansharamani.

When questioning the presence of an asset class bubble, he suggests investors consider politics.

"Are we seeing the government distort behavior because of tax policies, incentives, ceilings, price floors or subsidies of any sort? And, are we getting moral hazard in the sense that they will protect you if you are failing?" says Mansharamani.

Sign No. 5: herd mentality

People can walk on the moon, but following the herd is still irresistible.

"There are a lot of group or herd behaviors where people follow others they believe know what they are doing. Those people don't actually know what they're doing," says Mansharamani.

By the time you realize everyone is falling off the cliff, it may be too late to scramble to safety.

"The classic story that you hear people say -- if the valets and waiters and all the service people around the rich hotels can think of nothing other than what stock to buy, it's probably time to sell," says Rodriguez.

It doesn't help that bubbles often come with compelling stories that can cloud facts, even for the most clear-eyed contrarians.

"It's like in the heyday of the Internet stocks. The narrative was it doesn't matter that they don't have profits now -- they will and don't be late to the party. So it's usually that which gets you," Rodriguez says.

Avoiding bubbles

Maintaining a diversified portfolio and investing in accordance with a well-thought-out plan will mitigate the damage from a bubble in one asset class. Though nothing is guaranteed, a broad asset allocation strategy across asset classes and geography coupled with regular rebalancing can reduce the risks individual investors face.

"In the absence of cost you should rebalance daily. If you determine the right allocation for you is 60 percent equities and 40 percent bonds, why let the market determine what your allocation is?" says Larry Swedroe, director of research at Buckingham Asset Management in St. Louis.

Unfortunately, cost is never absent when trading, in which case Swedroe recommends rebalancing every time new cash is deposited into the account rather than doing it on a quarterly or yearly schedule.

"Time-based rebalancing makes no sense. An alternative is setting up boundaries. For instance, you may have 10 asset classes, each 6 percent. 'As long as it stays between 5 (percent) and 7 percent I'll let it drift. If it gets out of there I'll act.' You determine what is appropriate, but stay disciplined and stick to it," he says.

Investors could even benefit from bubbles by regularly taking profits off the table and reinvesting in asset classes that aren't doing so well, effectively succeeding at investing by buying low and selling high.

Investing resources

When in doubt, always heed the old saw, "bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered." That means don't get greedy -- lest you be the one left holding the bag when the bubble pops.





cranx
post Dec 19 2013, 02:04 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
flippers can breath a sigh of relief, even dr doom Nouriel Roubini said the post 2008 global bubble is not gonna burst just yet. and he chose the word deflate (soft landing).

http://propertyhunter.com.my/v1/news.php?id=262

QUOTE
But the global economy’s new housing bubbles may not be about to burst just yet because the forces feeding them — especially easy money and the need to hedge against inflation — are still fully operative.

Moreover, many banking systems have bigger capital buffers than in the past, enabling them to absorb losses from a correction in home prices, and, in most countries, households’ equity in their homes is greater than it was in the US subprime mortgage bubble. But the higher home prices rise, the further they will fall — and the greater the collateral economic and financial damage will be — when the bubble deflates.


cranx
post Dec 24 2013, 09:58 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Dec 24 2013, 06:02 PM)
another classic case also friend of mine bank officer can get loan without interest bought service apartment in iskandar johor for 380k 580 swuare feet locatefhighly nearby students area.. depending on salaries around 2.5 k plus commission around 3k .. bought together with his gf.. planning to flip it and sell it of vourse to singaporean for 500k and above... sadly..now 1 million.. have to sell to locals.. joheareans wont buy it at 500k .. now in deep trouble.. then cash advance and paid of the loan.. month by month meet statement and etc.. haizzz u see
*
is this under construction or completed project? I assume it is completed since he needs to pay the monthly installment.

never think of selling lower or rent it out? atleast better than bleeding cash every month.

cranx
post Dec 24 2013, 10:03 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 24 2013, 09:31 AM)
Not true lah ! HBA r a bunch of dreamer.

According to developer & REHDA next year properties market will back to full boom,  people realised that there is no price drop, so people will continue to BBB & price will UUU for sure,  after SPM results all those students will move into KV to work & study,  they would sapu all current house either buy or rent,  so no worry of oversupply.
People r dead worry over GST will cause house price further going up, so sure buy on 2014, then according to some minister price of goods will drop after GST, people have more spare money sure buy more properties to goreng.

Developers say it took 60 years to build enough house for Malaysia to equalise develop nation,  so at lease 60 years property booming.
*
lol thats a funny statement, and one of the most frequently used argument to justify the price hike.

cranx
post Dec 25 2013, 12:06 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE(forever1979 @ Dec 25 2013, 08:11 AM)
With all those small apartment/ SOVO/ SOVO flourishing into the market, it is really interesting to see 2-3 year later, how market can absorb on such huge supply.

But for other type of property is different. i.e landed and proper condo (with decent size) being subsale or completed new.
I have seen many buyers are mean for own stay and some also got support from family to come out with the down payment. Thus this group of people will hardly facing auction issue as they wanted to be their house.

Even for those mean for investment (long term) or flippers, as least you can see the supply has been diminishing these few year, so in event of fire sale, impact will be lesser as there will be a taker and price correction may not be as great as those SOHO/ small apartment type..
*
In fact speculation (gambling) is most common on properties below 1M. In general there isn't too significant price increase for those already expensive residential properties.

I am also wondering who will be the target tenant of these pigeon hole SOFO/SOHO/SOVO etc. Maybe airlines stewardess or pilot who don't spend too much time at home? Arab and African students?

Rental wise anything above RM1500 is gonna be tough, so must do the math what is the reasonable entry price.

Anyway, Merry Xmas I wish both bulls and bears joy and prosperity. thumbup.gif
cranx
post Dec 25 2013, 01:01 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
WCT addresses softening property market
23 December 2013


link to full article
http://realestatesmalaysia.blogspot.com/20...perty-mart.html

QUOTE
WCT Holdings Bhd is taking steps to prepare the construction and property development group for the anticipated softening of the property market.

Managing Director Taing Kim Hwa says: “WCT is mindful of and concerned about the potential softening of the property market, which may result in the slower take-up of properties.

“In order to mitigate this, the company will focus on seizing a strategic property land bank to support further expansion to its property portfolio in developed  and mature areas such as Klang Valley, Iskandar Malaysia, Penang and Kota Kinabalu.”

WCT has been involved in property development for close to two decades.  This is carried out mainly by wholly-owned subsidiary unit WCT Land Sdn Bhd, which is also involved in property investment and property management.

WCT has property projects in Petaling Jaya, Shah Alam and Klang in Selangor, as well as Iskandar Malaysia in Johor.  They include the Skyz Jelutong Residences at Bukit Jelutong, Shah Alam; Paradigm Residences in Petaling Jaya; the Medini Signature in Iskandar Malaysia; and The Landmark at Bukit Tinggi 2, Klang.

Taing tells FocusM that for next year, WCT’s property unit will focus on strengthening its market presence in the local property market.

“With a strong 17-year track record in property development, WCT will continue to strengthen its market presence in the local property market and expand on the quality land bank aimed at creating the opportunity for the provision of diversified, high-quality and reasonably-priced properties.

“Moving forward, the group will continue to leverage on its real estate development expertise and tract record in the developments of the Bandar Bukit Tinggi Klang township, d’Banyan luxury homes and 1Medini, to create more value for future development projects,” he adds.

In Budget 2014 unveiled in October, the government announced that the RPGT would be increased to 30% for properties disposed of within three years, and to 20% and 15% for properties disposed of within the fourth and fifth years, respectively.

Although the move is seen as part of measures to stablilise the property market, analysts expect demand for property to soften due to increased restrictions to curb speculation.  Other measures include imposing higher minimum prices for foreigners, ban on DIBS (developer interest-bearing scheme) and tighter bank lending.

“We have expected property demand to soften post-Budget 2014 as sentiments are affected …(Nevertheless), the demand for prime locations, affordable housing and landed properties should remain resilient,” says Hwang DBS Vickers in a mid-November research report.


Challenging outlook for banks in 2014
22 December 2013


link to full article
http://realestatesmalaysia.blogspot.com/20...ks-in-2014.html

QUOTE
The banking sector will find it a challenge to post higher earnings growth next year, given concerns that economic activities could be impacted by a pullback in fiscal spending and that loan growth could slow.

The banking industry is very closely related to the macro economy and most people are forecasting slightly slower growth all around.  I think we will also have to manage through bouts of financial market volatility, basically because of the quantitative easing tapering (by the US Federal Reserve) and so on.  So, one must be agile there,” Datuk Seri Nazir Razak, CEO of CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, tells The Edge.

Asked where growth would come from, he says: “We can always grow by eating market share.  We can drive new products.  I mean this year, CIMB has done very well in consumer banking.  How?  We have cut down costs, we’ve grown in new segments like ASB (Amanah Saham Bumiputra unit trust), we have grown back in SME banking and in hire purchase, and wealth management.”

At least four banking analysts say they expect loan growth to come down in 2014 – probably for the first time in two years – as a result of Bank Negara Malaysia’s ongoing moves to tighten consume lending as well as the government’s recently announced measures to cool the property market that kick in next year.

These will drag down growth in consumer loans, especially residential mortgages, says CIMB Research’s Winson Ng.  He expects overall loan growth to slow to 9.5% to 10.5% in 2014 compared with an estimate growth of 10% to 11% this year.


Some analysts, including Ng, however, believe bank earnings will likely grow at a stronger pace of 11.6% next year compared with an estimated 9% this year.

“The improvement in earnings will come from an expected narrower margin contraction and smaller increase in overheads.  But ….. we remain “neutral” on the sector because the improvement is anticipated to be small and growth will merely recover to 2012 levels,” Ng says.

While most research houses have a “neutral” call on the banking sector, at least two – Alliance Research and RHB Research – are taking a contrarian view with an “overweight” call.

Malaysia’s economy is expected to stay flat or at best post marginally higher growth next year.  Nomura Equity Research, for instance, sees Malaysia’s GDP growing 4.5% next year compared with 4.3% this year.

Cheah Kim Yoong, banking analyst at Alliance Reseach, expects loan growth to slow to 9% next year from 10.5% this year.  Last year, loan growth was 10.4%.

“The rule of thumb is that loan growth is twice your GDP growth rate.  In the last two years, it was more than twice because of easy credit, but now it should go back to normal or just below (GDP), given the loan tightening measures.


This post has been edited by cranx: Dec 25 2013, 01:04 PM
cranx
post Dec 26 2013, 01:19 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 26 2013, 12:20 PM)
I'm very much more afraid of property crash now that tat3179, which used to be a big bear, is now a big property BULL!!

Number 1 sign of a crash is big bear also becoming bull.....lol
*
lol I was about to comment on this tongue.gif
before he bought the apartment super bearish, after that suddenly became a bull.
cranx
post Dec 26 2013, 02:49 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 26 2013, 02:15 PM)
Bearish? Perhaps then. But I can change my mind, can I not?

Also, since when was I ever super bull?  biggrin.gif

You don't know my portfolio and my holdings, do you?  biggrin.gif

Anyway, say whatever you want. I know I am fine however the worm turns.

If the prices drop, good. I can acquire some more.

You can keep waiting in the sidelines if you wish. It is a free country after all.
*
dont get worked up over my statement ok..you are rich we all know. thumbup.gif
just echoing joeblows statement below.

QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 26 2013, 12:20 PM)
I'm very much more afraid of property crash now that tat3179, which used to be a big bear, is now a big property BULL!!

Number 1 sign of a crash is big bear also becoming bull.....lol
*
cranx
post Dec 26 2013, 11:42 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
Rafizi: Malaysia at risk of subprime crisis with government mortgage sale
By Boo Su-LynDecember 26, 2013
- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia...h.7UNjwfkg.dpuf

QUOTE
PETALING JAYA, Dec 26 — Malaysia may fall into a similar financial crisis that plagued the US in 2007 if the federal government carries on with the unplanned sale of housing loans undertaken by its massive civil force, PKR’s Rafizi Ramli said today.

The opposition party’s strategic director dismissed Putrajaya’s defence of its sale of national assets and government mortgages to raise revenue, saying such actions smacked of desperation and were not how a sovereign nation’s economy should be carried out.

“If we allow the federal government to continue to do this unchecked, it’s a recipe for disaster, as what happened in the US,” Rafizi a new conference at PKR headquarters here.

“Disposable income is decreasing because of the price hikes. The probability that people will default on their monthly payments is higher,” added the Pandan MP.

The Finance Ministry said on Tuesday that the liquidation of national assets is common and openly conducted by governments to drive the economy.

But Rafizi pointed out that Putrajaya was forced to make an unplanned sale of national assets and government mortgages for RM1.4 billion and RM4.2 billion respectively, due to overspending and slower than predicted economic growth this year, as mentioned by the World Bank’s “Malaysia Economic Monitor: December 2013” report.

“It’s fine if it’s a strategic move, but this is a short-term measure, a desperate move to meet creditors’ requirements,” he said.

“At the moment, our credit and sovereign rating is already under threat. They may revise down our credit rating. The government being forced to dispose of assets is different from disposing of them in a planned manner,” added the opposition lawmaker.

The World Bank said that Malaysia was expected to meet its target deficit this year at 4 per cent of the GDP due to revenue from non-tax sources amounting to RM7.4 billion, including the sale of national assets and government mortgages, despite exceeding the budget for operating expenditure by 7.1 per cent, or RM14.3 billion.

Rafizi likened Putrajaya’s actions to that of people pawning their gold in desperate times.

“It’s a distress signal from Putrajaya,” he said.

He added that the threat of a financial crisis would be further exacerbated in the event of civil servants’ failing to service their housing loans, as the biggest buyers of their mortgages were likely government institutions, such as the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and asset manager Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB).

Malaysia’s 1.3 million civil servants have faced less hurdles in seeing their loan applications approved, compared to their peers who fall into a similar income bracket in the private sector.

“If the bond holders are EPF or PNB, it’ll have an effect on their returns,” said Rafizi.

He said that government institutions were probably the largest buyers of such mortgages, as the recent dip in the value of the ringgit showed foreign investors’ declining interest in Malaysia.

“This is a national financial difficulty that will have an impact on day to day living,” said Rafizi.

cranx
post Dec 26 2013, 11:54 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE
Kuala Lumpur and Selangor Q3 2013 subsale market report

http://livingincorrectness.wordpress.com/2...-market-report/

cranx
post Dec 31 2013, 05:56 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE(tikaram @ Dec 30 2013, 10:36 PM)
Before usa property burst....spain property burst...dubai property burst.

brancrupcy due to housing loan is small 8%...

But after bubble...the % is 60%
*
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3064752/all

user posted image
cranx
post Dec 31 2013, 05:58 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/...ank-negara.html

Malaysia better prepared for capital outflows, says Bank Negara

QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 30): Malaysia is better prepared for potential capital outflows as US policy makers reduce their quantitative easing (QE) measures, according to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).

In an emailed reply to queries by the theedgemalaysia.com, BNM said "Malaysia is better positioned to manage the volatility from capital inflows and now their potential reversal". This is due to structural changes, reforms and policies implemented over several years.

"Our economy is now more diversified and more resilient, the financial system is stronger, and we have greater policy flexibility. The Malaysian economy is now more balanced with diverse sources of growth. Domestic demand has become an important driver of growth.

"This has enabled us to withstand adverse external developments. The services sector also has a greater role in the economy. Continuous and comprehensive efforts are now being implemented to transform the economy aimed at raising the level of and the pace of innovation to enhance the potential of the economy and hence its resilience," BNM said.

BNM's reply is in response to queries on the effects of the US planned QE reduction on Malaysian financial markets.

The US Federal Reserve said on December 18 this year that it plans to reduce its $85 billion a month bond purchases by US$10 billion to U$75 billion. The new policy starts on January 1, 2014.

Malaysia had seen capital outflows in anticipation of the news.

A note by AmResearch indicates that BNM's international reserves currently amounted to US$135.3 billion (RM440.8 billion) as of December 13, 2013.

This represents a 0.7% drop from the end of November this year.

The drop is attributed to the outflow of short-term funds during the 1H of December, resulting in a weakening of the ringgit versus the US dollar.

The ringgit has weakened to RM3.2937 today compared to RM2.9625 in May this year due to capital outflows.

According to BNM, the US' QE reduction comes at a time when the global economic backdrop is improving.

BNM said global central banks' market mechanisms will help facilitate orderly currency and financial market adjustments as the reduction takes place.

In Malaysia, BNM  said the presence of domestic institutional players also offers stabilising support to financial markets during capital-flow reversals.

BNM said “the increased financial market volatility is expected to be transitory".

“Fundamentals will eventually prevail” it said.

BNM is also mindful of domestic household debt and rising asset prices.

The central bank said macro-prudential measures related to the property market and household indebtedness including lower loan-to-value ratios and higher real property gains tax have resulted in stabilising trends in these sectors.

"Fiscal reforms are also on-going, including subsidy rationalisation and shifting from a blanket subsidy system to a more targeted one, to strengthen public finances and to ensure fiscal sustainability," BNM said.

With regards to the local financial sector, BNM said that the banking system is well capitalised with strong buffers.

BNM said so far, financial intermediation has not been disrupted during the current global financial crisis.

"There has been continued access to financing. Also important, is that almost 40% of the loans to businesses are channelled to SMEs," BNM said

cranx
post Dec 31 2013, 06:14 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
Singapore's outlook is not that good either.

Singapore’s Developers Move From Best to Worst: Southeast Asia
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-29/s...heast-asia.html

In fact if you look at bloomberg headlines, none of our neighbors is doing well.

http://topics.bloomberg.com/southeast-asia/

user posted image

This post has been edited by cranx: Dec 31 2013, 06:15 AM
cranx
post Jan 3 2014, 12:27 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
Malaysian property sector still attractive

http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...3#axzz2pJ1tWIvI

QUOTE
MALAYSIA’S property sector remains attractive to foreigners despite the increase in the minimum purchase price for foreign buyers from RM500,000 to RM1 million.

Wealth Mastery Academy Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Datuk Terry Ong attributed this to abundant new development projects and investor-friendly policies.

He said among the areas booming with massive development projects are the Greater Kuala Lumpur, Iskandar Malaysia in Johor, Penang and Malacca.

Speaking at the soft launch of Property Outlook Conference (POC) 2014, here, yesterday, Ong said most Asian investors find Malaysia a much attractive market for property investment compared with neighbouring countries like Indonesia and Singapore.

“The country also has a friendly policy for property investment, especially for foreigners… the RM1 million property floor price set for foreign buyers is still among the lowest offered in Asia,” he said, adding that Malaysia is one of the few countries to offer freehold properties to foreign investors.

Under 2014 Budget, the government increased the minimum price of properties that foreigners can buy to RM1 million, effective Wednesday.

Ong said while Singaporeans remain the largest group of foreign property investors, Malaysian properties continue to receive huge interest from other parts of the world, including South Africa, China and India.

He said the upcoming POC, of which Wealth Mastery Academy is the organiser, is set to woo more foreign buyers to invest in the country’s attractive property market.

The event aims to attract 1,500 visitors this year compared with 1,000 previously.

The two-day conference, which begins next Wenesday, will feature renowned professionals and property experts sharing their insights and approaches on a wide range of wealth-building strategies and techniques.

One of the speakers is Renesial Leong, a certified professional trainer for property investment, dubbed Asia’s Queen of Property.

A property exhibition featuring 10 foreign and local developers will also be held concurrently during the event.

“This is a good platform for all property investors,” Ong said.- BT
cranx
post Jan 3 2014, 08:55 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
Singapore home prices fall for first time in almost two years

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...lmost-two-years
cranx
post Jan 3 2014, 09:06 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE(kradun @ Jan 3 2014, 08:54 PM)
Just having teh tarik at mamak and notice that the price is already increase by 7.7% which is much more than my last year salary increment.. some food stall even increase the food price by 20%.. is time to expect for property price to go down due to higher living cost, property buyer shall granted the privilege of reduced housing price to ease their burden..
*
Yes, must increase the price cause seller also need to survive mah. tongue.gif
Problem is that potential pool of buyer is very limited now. so what to do?

The strategy now is very simple. you see fresh graduates hundreds of thousands every year, and majority of them from other states flock to KL to work. They do not have the means to buy from you, so just rent it to them. Property owners must unite and please do not undercut each other on the rental pricing, must fix a baseline rental amount.

So you ask what if they cant afford to pay the rent? (high rent due to expensive installment to banks)
No problem, instead of 3 graduates renting one house, you rent it to 6 graduates sharing the house. I have seen Sunway Monash college did this, partitioned one condo to 6 or 7 rooms and charge RM800 each.

Easy money!! nice or not this strategy?
cranx
post Jan 3 2014, 09:09 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE(HELLO HELLO @ Jan 3 2014, 09:02 PM)
Not a new news. He already mention 1-2 years ago.. Also published newspaper....Quite popular 1 woh.... His name ada water.... Hehe.
*
Gavin Tee?
cranx
post Jan 6 2014, 12:05 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,360 posts

Joined: Mar 2010
QUOTE(joeblows @ Jan 6 2014, 11:10 AM)
Our KLCC is actually a very shitty area. What is so advantageous about living in KLCC, that can attract the rich expats, really?

Luxury development?
Other areas also have luxury developments - Bangsar, MK, PJ

Easy access to amneties?
Nope! Imagine if you live behind KLCC, there aren't any good grocery supermarkets nearby even. No post office (to pay bills). No parks for sports (KLCC park sucks). There is a gym, and LRT, which you can find everywhere else.

Lots of nightlife?
NOPE! KLCC area nightlife SUCKS! Nearest with good nightlife (barely acceptable) is Pavillion, and you can't walk, need to drive. Beach Club closed down and the P Ramlee area is on a decline now. Good food? Nope not really. No happening clubs in KLCC aside from Zouk which is still not really walking distance (and apparently relocating soon).

Other areas have more nightlife. MK has lots of pubs, Bangsar too. 1st Avenue in PJ is now happening.

So really, what is so good about KLCC??

Nothing, really if you properly do your research.

The only advantage is its near to KLCC work and offices. But so what, does everyone work in KLCC? Most big companies already moved out. Remaining large employers that hire a lot of expats maybe Petronas or Citibank but even then those are on downtrend. And who wants to live next door to office? So your boss can ask you to come back to the office on Saturdays or stay late at night cos convenient for you? LOL!
*
Prestige. just need to open your curtains and you will see that great symbol of Malaysia.
Good to impress chicks as well.

2 Pages  1 2 >Top
Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0570sec    0.68    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 3rd December 2025 - 12:07 AM