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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V132, Everyone Huat!

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river.sand
post Jun 14 2013, 12:20 PM

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QUOTE(bursalchemy @ Jun 14 2013, 12:02 PM)
oldtown, astro, aeon, walmart, coke are some of the long term investment i am looking at. They all have wide economic moat can defense against competition and market. I will buy them when their price reached my intrinsic value. Think of 100 years, they will still survivr
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Oldtown faces competition from Pappa Rich and other imitations.
The other stocks you mention do indeed have wide economic moat, but that doesn't guarantee their survival 100 years from now. Walmart is challenged by amazon.com.

kueyteowlou
post Jun 14 2013, 12:21 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 14 2013, 11:43 AM)
If I am not wrong here...  tongue.gif

Cyclical stock like steel, they have very short profitability one.
So the best time to buy, you buy when they are losing money, or have hardly any earnings.
When there is hardly any earnings, the PE will be high.

When the earnings turn around, the earnings for steel stocks comes in big lump sump.
So the PE will suddenly turn from high PE to low PE.
Anc because the good times for steel stocks tends to be short lived, you then should probably sell when the PE is low.

You probably can use CSCSteel as a reference.
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laugh.gif

MASTEEL boleh kah boss? whistling.gif
SKY 1809
post Jun 14 2013, 12:21 PM

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QUOTE(bursalchemy @ Jun 14 2013, 12:16 PM)
A century ago, there was a quoted called if you want to be a billionaire, buy airlines. Nowadays, airline industry are hard to manage, power of trade union, highly geared balance sheet, government intervention, stiff competition from no frills airlines are all the threats.

Airasia is blessed because has a bunch of capable and competence management team. They really knows what they doing when hedging on fuel price movement.
Airlines is an industry required smart management to operate, but i cant guarantee if there any good succession plan in 100 years later. I want an investment where even dumb management can also run it successfully, because in someday ahead, it will have one.

MAS is bureaucratic and appointment not based on meritocracy. I dont see any competency in jauhari yahya. Corporate turnaround seldom turn
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So it is the Smart Management per se, I agree.

How do u know the management remains smart for the next 1oo years......

AFter Steve Jobs left , Apple becomes not so smart today.

yhtan
post Jun 14 2013, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(bursalchemy @ Jun 14 2013, 12:02 PM)
oldtown, astro, aeon, walmart, coke are some of the long term investment i am looking at. They all have wide economic moat can defense against competition and market. I will buy them when their price reached my intrinsic value. Think of 100 years, they will still survivr
*
For Astro, their future threat going to be cable TV, and monopoly using political connection is not going to last in long run.

You still have to monitor the external environment and management to make judgement on your holding, there is no certain things in 10 or 100 years time. Many things can be happen and turn the table to their competitor.

SKY 1809
post Jun 14 2013, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jun 14 2013, 12:20 PM)
Oldtown faces competition from Pappa Rich and other imitations.
The other stocks you mention do indeed have wide economic moat, but that doesn't guarantee their survival 100 years from now. Walmart is challenged by amazon.com.
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Concerning Oldtown .

Do their restaurants really making good profits, or something else hmm.gif

I do not know, but I doubt so.
Boon3
post Jun 14 2013, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Jun 14 2013, 12:21 PM)
laugh.gif

MASTEEL boleh kah boss?  whistling.gif
You ask me meh?

I should be the one asking you already. tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif
iAlien
post Jun 14 2013, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 14 2013, 12:24 PM)
Concerning Oldtown .

Do their restaurants really making good profits, or something else  hmm.gif

I do not know, but I doubt so.
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i saw some 'news' said if they do good in hk, the price is about x2 of share price now

i means, i saw*
SKY 1809
post Jun 14 2013, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Jun 14 2013, 12:22 PM)
For Astro, their future threat going to be cable TV, and monopoly using political connection is not going to last in long run.

You still have to monitor the external environment and management to make judgement on your holding, there is no certain things in 10 or 100 years time. Many things can be happen and turn the table to their competitor.
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One new one coming out 50 channels for rm 30.

BTW Maxis is up for sales, next could be Astro.....
kueyteowlou
post Jun 14 2013, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 14 2013, 12:25 PM)
You ask me meh?

I should be the one asking you already.  tongue.gif  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
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hmm.gif

u hold 1 stock until die geh....

i hold 30second i throw them like hell already.... sweat.gif

so have to ask ur long term view mah.... icon_rolleyes.gif
SKY 1809
post Jun 14 2013, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(iAlien @ Jun 14 2013, 12:27 PM)
i saw some 'news' said if they do good in hk, the price is about x2 of share price now

i means, i saw*
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I mean what is the main source of their profit , coffee powder or restaurants ?
yhtan
post Jun 14 2013, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 14 2013, 12:27 PM)
One new one  coming out 50 channels for rm 30.

BTW Maxis is up for sales, next could be Astro.....
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this will benefit consumer laugh.gif

Boon3
post Jun 14 2013, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Jun 14 2013, 12:28 PM)
hmm.gif

u hold 1 stock until die geh....

i hold 30second i throw them like hell already....  sweat.gif

so have to ask ur long term view mah....  icon_rolleyes.gif
LOL!

Sometimes, the stock I hold, I cannot find the throwing point ma.
So hold longer lor.

Sometimes, if ok, I add some more. laugh.gif
SKY 1809
post Jun 14 2013, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Jun 14 2013, 12:22 PM)
For Astro, their future threat going to be cable TV, and monopoly using political connection is not going to last in long run.

You still have to monitor the external environment and management to make judgement on your holding, there is no certain things in 10 or 100 years time. Many things can be happen and turn the table to their competitor.
*
Everyone needs a PC or laptop for the next many years , but smartphones and tablets rule the world now .
SKY 1809
post Jun 14 2013, 12:37 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Jun 14 2013, 12:33 PM)
this will benefit consumer laugh.gif
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But now I watch Astro on demands for free rclxub.gif
iAlien
post Jun 14 2013, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 14 2013, 12:29 PM)
I mean what is the main source of their profit , coffee powder  or restaurants ?
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personally liking this brand of coffee cuz he got the own way of taste,lots of people complaing ah huat white coffee lose the taste to oldtown

btw, power root is like power rocket too..

The concept of restaurant is not new, just the taste maybe??


bursalchemy
post Jun 14 2013, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 14 2013, 12:24 PM)
Concerning Oldtown .

Do their restaurants really making good profits, or something else  hmm.gif

I do not know, but I doubt so.
*
Oldtown has venturesome expansion into packagimg coffee drinks market. It has also established foothold in HK and China market. Within 5 years, i think the investment will brew.

Coz those chinese like to drink our nan yang white coffee. I went HK last year and saw there is oldtown packaging coffee selling in wellcome and other supermarket owned by dairy farm.

After i came back from msia, i average up 2000 units at rm1.92/share. I got 1000 units previously bought since IPO.
river.sand
post Jun 14 2013, 12:41 PM

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QUOTE(iAlien @ Jun 14 2013, 12:38 PM)
The concept of restaurant is not new, just the taste maybe??
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No, it's the service or environment. We go to mamak stalls to watch EPL, or Starbucks to kill time.
SKY 1809
post Jun 14 2013, 12:44 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jun 14 2013, 12:41 PM)
No, it's the service or environment. We go to mamak stalls to watch EPL, or Starbucks to kill time.
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Those days we stay in Pubs to kill our time too.

But sooner or later the pubs got killed off one by one. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jun 14 2013, 12:45 PM
bursalchemy
post Jun 14 2013, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 14 2013, 12:27 PM)
One new one  coming out 50 channels for rm 30.

BTW Maxis is up for sales, next could be Astro.....
*
I dont think ABN presence can takeover astro market share. It will only steer competition and make astro more efficient.

Berkshire hathaway recent years stockpick by todd combs is directv which is the same industry as astro, it has a market cap of 34 billion usd.

Astro has only 15 billion myr market cap. I think there is still room for growth for astro. The astro on the go tied up with time dot com is an interesting model. I think it will reap profit in the year ahead.

The Njoy package is smart, it can target household which is not so affluent to buy that package in one off. So that they wont subscribe for ABN later. abn must have deep pocket, otherwise i dont think it can survive for long due to expensive content cost.
PlayMaker`
post Jun 14 2013, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 14 2013, 12:24 PM)
Concerning Oldtown .

Do their restaurants really making good profits, or something else  hmm.gif

I do not know, but I doubt so.
*
just very recent i went OldTown just for yum cha (bcoz waiting to watch movie), then only i realized they have increase their food&drink price so much already.... way too expensive already (at least for me)....

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