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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V132, Everyone Huat!

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yhtan
post Jun 13 2013, 09:44 AM

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Beware there might have a minor correction coming in, foreign fund started to sell those blue chip counters
yhtan
post Jun 13 2013, 10:09 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 12 2013, 06:58 PM)
Think of the simplest reasons.

When you buy a stock and the stock price goes down, what essentially has happened?

Answer: You either buy the wrong stock or you buy at the wrong price.
Either answer, your buying action was wrong and this is why the stock price moved down.

Of course, one will say, I bought the correct stock.
That stock is fundamentally strong.
It fell cos..... err .... no luck.

Maybe. tongue.gif

But no matter what, you were wrong.
Averaging down means you are buying more of your original mistake.
Would you agree?

Averaging up.
You buy the stock, it goes up.
Why? tongue.gif
Right stock or the stock was bought at the right price.

Or just plain lucky? tongue.gif  laugh.gif

But no matter what, you did something right.
Averaging up means you are buying more of your original correct decision.

But MANY would argue that they tend to lose money when they average up.
Why?
How come doing more (buying more) of a correct decision end up failing?
Is this tactic wrong?

How about asking if one was averaging up correctly?
Simply adding up to a winning position and simply adding at any price is reckless and usually would fail.

Me?
I am a fan of averaging up.
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I've done average down and up, average down is a tough and pain decision to make

Previously cherroy taikor mentioned about this, i concur with him, average up provide a much higher confidence for investor.

Ah Boon, blow so much water, got tipsy today? brows.gif
yhtan
post Jun 13 2013, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 13 2013, 10:26 AM)
Another shocking news in the pipeline :_

Ku Li eyes PM post, meeting more MPs, say sources

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ps-say-sources/
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Wow, not willing to give up after a decade laugh.gif
yhtan
post Jun 13 2013, 10:44 AM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Jun 13 2013, 10:43 AM)
hmm.gif then next time i dun want give buy call liao
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U try opposite way, keep giving sell call laugh.gif
yhtan
post Jun 13 2013, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 13 2013, 11:02 AM)
sweat.gif

Today blame game start and you want me to give you tipsy?

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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i very very nice and kind one, don't worry tongue.gif laugh.gif

QUOTE(davidcch07 @ Jun 13 2013, 11:03 AM)
Sorry yah.. for the insider news call... i will never give insider call again...  notworthy.gif
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You did your best in sharing, GOB is the best example thumbup.gif
yhtan
post Jun 13 2013, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(Top Gun @ Jun 13 2013, 11:44 AM)
Maybe you are with good intention to share, which I believe so, but, by making the insider news here is making it public.
Those who don't really knows you that follow your buy call and buy, if the market U-turn like these few days, whatever shares also will dropped. And, if they makes a lost, they will blame you.

Best is like me, only share with those that knows you well but not all.
But still, for my case, a rich uncle (my supplier) that follow my "insider news" bought 2 counters. One of the counter did actually shoot up when the news came out, but he didn't profit taking. End up, he make loses and keep on average down, and now he got trap inside with few hundred thousands. Although it is not my false, and the insider news is 100% happened like I was the one who wrote the script, but seeing him paper lose today by following my buy call, I feel sorry for him even he never blame me. He knows for sure that I am not a conman. The other counter, I am still suffering more than he is as of today.

That's why nowadays, I don't share with people insider news.

If I choose to buy shares from the insider news here, if I lost, I've only got myself to blame. Treat it as a lesson loh.
As for Redtone, I believe it will comes one. Now is just minor correction. I've heard enough about Redtone since 3 years ago. VT is behind mah.

Hope I've make my point of view clear.
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Bad strategy applied by that uncle, trading play should take profit when it shoot up. If u recommend a fundamental sound counter, it would be a different story.

yhtan
post Jun 13 2013, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 13 2013, 03:40 PM)
Indonesia central bank increases interest rate by 25 basis point , bad Omen .

JAKARTA (June 13): Indonesia's central bank surprised the market for a second time this week by raising its benchmark interest rate, which had been unchanged for 15 months, by 25 basis points to 6.0 percent on Thursday.
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Indonesia inflation rate must be really high sweat.gif

Is time for Gark to renew its FD laugh.gif
yhtan
post Jun 13 2013, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(kuluuluk @ Jun 13 2013, 11:28 PM)
sweat.gif OT  : U guyz heard of the Heong Leong Savings where first year u pay 6k for 6 years only where they pay u 1.2k yearly? any good in there,
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Not worth it sweat.gif

First year paid upfront RM6k and lock in 6 years
Repay back each year at RM1.2k
So return would be RM1.2k for 6 years

My calculator shown me compounding interest at 3% only
Is much more better to put at FD rate @ 3% and without lock-in period

icon_rolleyes.gif icon_rolleyes.gif
yhtan
post Jun 14 2013, 09:56 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 14 2013, 09:54 AM)
Today dead kucing bounce... rclxms.gif

2 strategy..

1. Sell into strenght
2. Buy into rally
3. Do nothing...

which one you all choose.. i choose do nothing...  whistling.gif
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Yesterday the drop cause me 2% paper lost sweat.gif

I choose do nothing tongue.gif
yhtan
post Jun 14 2013, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 14 2013, 09:34 AM)
At coffee shops, older drinkers esp uncles prefer GAB products (Guinness, Tiger).

But younger drinkers and pubs tend to favour Carlsberg.

But seriously, Tiger taste better than Carlsberg rclxub.gif
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If u observe the Pub, most likely they selling only one Company beer product, either from GAB or Carlsberg

So its boil down to their marketing team strength, no doubt in recent year Carlsberg did a fantastic job rclxms.gif
yhtan
post Jun 14 2013, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(bursalchemy @ Jun 14 2013, 11:29 AM)
Especially cylinical stock like steel company. We should buy when PE is high and sell When PE is low. Because market may perceive some bad times ahead thats why PE drop until so low
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I don't get it rclxub.gif

Each industry has a way to analyze, u can't use consumer stock PE and judge it on steel company PE.
yhtan
post Jun 14 2013, 12:14 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 14 2013, 11:43 AM)
If I am not wrong here...  tongue.gif

Cyclical stock like steel, they have very short profitability one.
So the best time to buy, you buy when they are losing money, or have hardly any earnings.
When there is hardly any earnings, the PE will be high.

When the earnings turn around, the earnings for steel stocks comes in big lump sump.
So the PE will suddenly turn from high PE to low PE.
Anc because the good times for steel stocks tends to be short lived, you then should probably sell when the PE is low.

You probably can use CSCSteel as a reference.
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Now i understood icon_idea.gif

Thank you for the tipsy explanation icon_rolleyes.gif

QUOTE(bursalchemy @ Jun 14 2013, 11:46 AM)
Because PE is based on historical figures. Shares investment is looking at prospect. Assume financial community are rational, they have taken account of the future prospect of the industry. Thats mean the prospect will not as robust as currently is. Political factor such as dumping, rising standard of steel import quality, economic risk (forex fluctuation)  and embargo will affect the robustness of steel industry. There maybe decline in performance in the future where climb up the PE or have no PE (company making losses) at all.

Cyclinical stocks are not easy to predict. It is only suitable for investor who is in the industry n know the market well. Learn from peter lynch.

When i buy foods industry, i know people will eat no matter what the economuc conditions. But we cany do this on cyclinical stock. Thats why cyclinical stock is not a sound long term investment
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Thanks for the explanation notworthy.gif


yhtan
post Jun 14 2013, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(bursalchemy @ Jun 14 2013, 12:02 PM)
oldtown, astro, aeon, walmart, coke are some of the long term investment i am looking at. They all have wide economic moat can defense against competition and market. I will buy them when their price reached my intrinsic value. Think of 100 years, they will still survivr
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For Astro, their future threat going to be cable TV, and monopoly using political connection is not going to last in long run.

You still have to monitor the external environment and management to make judgement on your holding, there is no certain things in 10 or 100 years time. Many things can be happen and turn the table to their competitor.

yhtan
post Jun 14 2013, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 14 2013, 12:27 PM)
One new one  coming out 50 channels for rm 30.

BTW Maxis is up for sales, next could be Astro.....
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this will benefit consumer laugh.gif

yhtan
post Jun 15 2013, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 15 2013, 12:35 PM)
Most small cap bosses are approached by sharks, or they linked themselves to sharks .

Like a private equity type hmm.gif
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I concur with your statement

Before sharks attack the counter, they already mutual agreement with some largest shareholder. Eg. Ordinary share 100mil shares, 70% owned by largest shareholder, they will play with the float of 30% free float share. The goreng session will not spark up if largest shareholder throw out its share in middle.

This is the reason why many ikan bilis trapped inside these counter sweat.gif

yhtan
post Jun 15 2013, 09:29 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jun 15 2013, 06:47 PM)
U think all also got mutual agreement one mer? Not all will have mutual agreement one la.
Some are very indirect one..

Wanna give example..

Ah.. Tan Sri ah.. Come let's play golf tomorrow from 9 to 11am.. We can have a good chat..

So you got 2 hours window liau lo.. biggrin.gif Hahaha
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This one timeframe only a short period, how to sustain for a week?

Unless they sponsor the whole family 1 week trip laugh.gif
yhtan
post Jun 17 2013, 12:27 AM

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QUOTE(jy1905 @ Jun 16 2013, 10:54 PM)
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=...6924&sec=nation

so interested to know how our deputy finance minister gonna reduce the prices of houses
pop the bubble ka?
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Simple only, just increase the interest rate laugh.gif
yhtan
post Jun 17 2013, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jun 17 2013, 03:49 PM)
Tony zai busy with listing of new IPO

He has Airasia, Tune Insurance (Feb 2013), Air Asia X (July 2013), now they are aiming to list Tune Hotel by 2015. Waw.
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Tune Group or just only Tune Hotel? hmm.gif
yhtan
post Jun 18 2013, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jun 18 2013, 03:42 PM)
Tambun piah tomorrow AGM

Waiting for 3.3c dividend to be approve wub.gif
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Have u decided to take DRIP or cash?
yhtan
post Jun 19 2013, 05:42 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 19 2013, 05:04 PM)
Agree.
Even my sister who prefer comfort, she always choose MAS. She doesn't mind pay extra for comfort.  nod.gif
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Some of their plane is quite old (more than 10 years) and it require refurbishment, next month i'm heading London with MAS A380 tongue.gif

My sister feedback was good, the introduction of Malindo airline is definitely a joy for frequent traveller laugh.gif

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