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 V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls

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Rooney1985
post Jun 20 2013, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Jun 20 2013, 12:10 PM)
I am not an economist but just saying based on what I think is logic. I believe property prices wont be affected negatively until 2016-2017. why? We have such stimulus like the Economic Tranformation Plan. One of the things is the new MRT phase 1,2,3 and lrt#2,3.

We have employed many foreigners professional and non-professionals to work and actually from the data I have, rental in certain parts of kl is been increasing steadily. well this maybe an artificial effect since it is supported by the projects of the ETP.

I believe since these projects are ongoing, property prices would not be affected as not just foreigners coming but Malaysians are also buying near MRT and LRT. Until around 2016-2017, in which the next GE is around the corner and MRT#1 and LRT#2 almost completed or functional (dunno), then maybe we could see some negative effect. that time MRT#2,#3 and others ETP is still unknown of their status. If BN loses, then we could see something else in the initial stage.
If you ask me, we are in the correct timing to buy near these new MRT, LRT. When all phases completed, I believe price wont be as per current price anymore. bad news for buyer then. This is a chance of a lifetime. one should look into this opportunity just like those early buyers before 2008.
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Very property focused point of view... If we look one layer below the ETP, we will start to ask where the funding for stimulus is coming from??? G funds/ borrowing... if its G-funds we're taking about taxes... higher taxes leading to lower disposable income will definitely not push prices up... unless total income increases (in REAL TERMS)... (historical data shows otherwise). borrowing? borrowing in light of the devaluation and weak fundamentals mean we get less and pay more in terms of conversion and interest... both negative outcomes on ETP and property prices. In view of the gradual withdrawal of QE by US (targeted to be completed by end 2014.. i.e. to commence pretty soon unless they want to shock the whole economy) there's going to be a a credit shortage... this means higher interests on borrowings... means G needs to pay more... in order to G to pay more, G taxes more, when G taxes more people get poorer, when people get poorer how to pay more rent or buy more expensive houses? My bet is more on changes in US and Europe's QE position affecting our property value rather than 2016/17 GE.

You have a point though that the infrastructure in the pipeline will lead to increase in property value... but will there be enough financially capable demand to support that value??? Will boleh land be a market that attracts foreign investments to do business here? Sophisticated businesses? Services not manufacturing... Like Singapore & Hong Kong? I doubt so... Boleh land will remain in limbo... a resource exporter/ manufacturing country trying to break into the category of services but never really entering the ranks of Singapore and Hong Kong.

Even if we take opportunity and buy now??? will there be enough rental demand when economy weakens? If yes, can this demand afford the high rental? These factors relate to capital appreciation as well.

Why (possible reasons/ events) would there be negative effects in 2016/17???

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Jun 20 2013, 01:49 PM
Rooney1985
post Jun 20 2013, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 20 2013, 01:38 PM)
Before KLIA was completed, house price in Nilai, Sepang, Salak Tinggi area was rocketed. However, after KLIA was completed, lots of these houses were left vacant for many years.
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biggrin.gif

Benefits of having MRT/LRT near your house depends on who are those taking MRT/ LRT... nowadays everyone is driving... even those staying near MRT/LRT also drive... only those that cannot afford to drive (most) will take MRT/LRT.... So what income category do they fall into? <2K? <3K? <4K? See in singapore its different... prices of cars, coe, petrol, parking make driving a luxurious lifestyle that even those earning 15KSGD take MRT... Boleh-land???? biggrin.gif I think it was a gimmick all along to sell properties because of MRT/LRT.... no offense to those who truely believe in it... I just don't think boleh-land culture, wage class, and mindset is ready for this MRT/ LRT... Most likely, after two years of launch these stations would become crime hot spots... ill maintained and run-down... No where near the efficiency of Singapore and Hong Kong... may even make losses... (as history has shown)...

Singapore & Hong Kong's MRT system is so well integrated that it practically creates townships... accessibility to shopping/ entertainment areas and what ever needs within 15 mins traveling time... I highly doubt the upcoming MRT is doing that... its merely... a track from town to the suburbs... and nothing great in between... pretty pathetic.

Question... if property near MRT/LRT have more demand and prices go up in the future... does that mean that those not near MRT/LRT have less demand and so prices will be fall??? biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Jun 20 2013, 02:17 PM
ngaisteve1
post Jun 20 2013, 02:46 PM

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Just wondering, how much is the covered car park cost nowadays in apartment? That day view a unit, the owner give to price, if buy the unit with covered car park, he will give RM5k discount for the car park. If buy the car park separately, the car park cost RM15k. He said he bot the car park RM10k last time. My apartment is like 18 years old.
AVFAN
post Jun 20 2013, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jun 20 2013, 02:04 PM)
I think it was a gimmick all along to sell properties because of MRT/LRT.... no offense to those who truely believe in it... I just don't think boleh-land culture, wage class, and mindset is ready for this MRT/ LRT... Most likely, after two years of launch these stations would become crime hot spots... ill maintained and run-down...

then, landlords will rent to anyone - illegals, foreign workers, students, ph... not that this isn't already happening now.

i think those props will get a decent price, but value is mainly driven by a unique clientele.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 20 2013, 03:34 PM
EddyLB
post Jun 20 2013, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(Yamma @ Jun 20 2013, 12:03 PM)
so cheap one? mine loan 550k 35 years got to pay 2600 p.m.

i doubt 35 vs 40 bring significant diff..
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Based on home loan calculator :

http://www.pbebank.com/en/en_content/perso...s/loan_cal.html

Loan 720k, 40 years, -2.4% = 3099
Loan 720k, 35 years, -2.4% = 3275

Your loan
Loan 550k, 35 years, -2.4% = 2502
Loan 550k, 40 years, -2.4% = 2368

Difference of RM134 per month

teohkpin
post Jun 20 2013, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Jun 20 2013, 12:04 PM)
since the prop appreciate at about 10% per year, when we reach 2Q 2014, the correction will come back to 2Q 2013? Might as well buy now?

that's assuming the trend is 10% appreciation per year. I donno about the real appreciation. ANyone can clarify?
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Probably asking price tongue.gif but never get transacted.
teohkpin
post Jun 20 2013, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jun 20 2013, 02:04 PM)
biggrin.gif

Benefits of having MRT/LRT near your house depends on who are those taking MRT/ LRT... nowadays everyone is driving... even those staying near MRT/LRT also drive... only those that cannot afford to drive (most) will take MRT/LRT.... So what income category do they fall into? <2K? <3K? <4K? See in singapore its different... prices of cars, coe, petrol, parking make driving a luxurious lifestyle that even those earning 15KSGD take MRT... Boleh-land????  biggrin.gif  I think it was a gimmick all along to sell properties because of MRT/LRT.... no offense to those who truely believe in it... I just don't think boleh-land culture, wage class, and mindset is ready for this MRT/ LRT... Most likely, after two years of launch these stations would become crime hot spots... ill maintained and run-down... No where near the efficiency of Singapore and Hong Kong... may even make losses... (as history has shown)...

Singapore & Hong Kong's MRT system is so well integrated that it practically creates townships... accessibility to shopping/ entertainment areas and what ever needs within 15 mins traveling time... I highly doubt the upcoming MRT is doing that... its merely... a track from town to the suburbs... and nothing great in between... pretty pathetic.

Question... if property near MRT/LRT have more demand and prices go up in the future... does that mean that those not near MRT/LRT have less demand and so prices will be fall??? biggrin.gif
*
+like.
Agreed. in short we need more than mrt/lrt to become a developed world and to spur the economy. If the entire property market is affected, even properties near mrt/lrt will not be spared, probably with a lesser drop in prices, having said that current prices for property near lrt has already been priced in, which is already selling higher than the rest.
icemanfx
post Jun 20 2013, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(blowwater101 @ Jun 20 2013, 10:00 AM)
combine income to buy prop is a trend for young generation, i assume in age 25-30, average net income is 4K, so a young couple have 8k net monthly income and they eligible to buy a 800K property (monthly installment about 3.5K) I would like to conclude that the current prop price is still afforadable for young gen 1st prop buyer....not sure if I am too shallow to conclude this ?
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How many people age 25-30 have average net income of 4k? How many couples age 25-30 have average net income of 8k? How many of these couples haven't buy their first house?




icemanfx
post Jun 20 2013, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Jun 20 2013, 01:25 PM)
Why bro? After mrt and lrt completed, those houses nearby will surely appreciate, right? I consider that as a chance of a lifetime to buy at current price
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How many new condo/apartments coming to the market along mrt and lrt line?


Rooney1985
post Jun 20 2013, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 20 2013, 04:26 PM)
How many new condo/apartments coming to the market along mrt and lrt line?
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The trick is... now the property launches say "Near MRT"... but actually quite far... then next time launch say "X meters from MRT" price more expensive and the last slaughter is... "Next to MRT" ... lmfao!!! biggrin.gif Like the MRT is going to grow money and drop into those houses nearest to it. biggrin.gif
Anon_1986
post Jun 20 2013, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jun 20 2013, 11:35 AM)
RM is down against most major currencies (US, AUD, NZD, SGD, HKD)... Hmmmm... wonder whats going on... LMFAO!!!!
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The impending reversal of QE shows the fickleness of hot money flows. Hot money flows, just like asset price bubbles, create their own self-fulfilling prophecies.
siakap5
post Jun 20 2013, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jun 20 2013, 11:35 AM)
RM is down against most major currencies (US, AUD, NZD, SGD, HKD)... Hmmmm... wonder whats going on... LMFAO!!!!
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Malaysia indeed very weak to attract FDI ..... is getting weaker and weaker . the reason is very obvious . doh.gif
blowwater101
post Jun 20 2013, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 20 2013, 04:20 PM)
How many people age 25-30 have average net income of 4k? How many couples age 25-30 have average net income of 8k? How many of these couples haven't buy their first house?
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how to answer u ? I already told u I assume to conclude that it is still affordable...

by age of 28-30, earning 5k so to have 4K net income is a safe assumption i think...avg in this range...

sorry if i make a wrong assumption and confuse u guys..just share what i know and what i observed notworthy.gif
icemanfx
post Jun 20 2013, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(blowwater101 @ Jun 20 2013, 05:09 PM)
how to answer u ? I already told u I assume to conclude that it is still affordable...

by age of 28-30, earning 5k so to have 4K net income is a safe assumption i think...avg in this range...

sorry if i make a wrong assumption and confuse u guys..just share what i know and what i observed  notworthy.gif
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10%, 20%, 30%, 52.34%, 83.29%?

zuiko407
post Jun 20 2013, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jun 20 2013, 01:44 PM)
Very property focused point of view... If we look one layer below the ETP, we will start to ask where the funding for stimulus is coming from??? G funds/ borrowing... if its G-funds we're taking about taxes... higher taxes leading to lower disposable income will definitely not push prices up... unless total income increases (in REAL TERMS)... (historical data shows otherwise). borrowing? borrowing in light of the devaluation and weak fundamentals mean we get less and pay more in terms of conversion and interest... both negative outcomes on ETP and property prices. In view of the gradual withdrawal of QE by US (targeted to be completed by end 2014.. i.e. to commence pretty soon unless they want to shock the whole economy) there's going to be a a credit shortage... this means higher interests on borrowings... means G needs to pay more... in order to G to pay more, G taxes more, when G taxes more people get poorer, when people get poorer how to pay more rent or buy more expensive houses? My bet is more on changes in US and Europe's QE position affecting our property value rather than 2016/17 GE.

You have a point though that the infrastructure in the pipeline will lead to increase in property value... but will there be enough financially capable demand to support that value??? Will boleh land be a market that attracts foreign investments to do business here? Sophisticated businesses? Services not manufacturing... Like Singapore & Hong Kong? I doubt so... Boleh land will remain in limbo... a resource exporter/ manufacturing country trying to break into the category of services but never really entering the ranks of Singapore and Hong Kong.

Even if we take opportunity and buy now??? will there be enough rental demand when economy weakens? If yes, can this demand afford the high rental? These factors relate to capital appreciation as well.

Why (possible reasons/ events) would there be negative effects in 2016/17???
*
Mr. Wayne, don't buy, keep the money...
malaysia will collapse soon thumbup.gif
blowwater101
post Jun 20 2013, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 20 2013, 05:13 PM)
10%, 20%, 30%, 52.34%, 83.29%?
*
if u read all my msg, i only mentioned i only share what happened around me, some of my fren in marriage age (27-30)...still havent purchased their 1st house, their combine income easily reach 8k-10k...still look see look see...my point is these group of latent property buyer are exist, and able to give support to the property market in future... just a sharing biggrin.gif

what i mentioned were come with assumption, same like some ppl said LRT is a vr good factor, some said depends....they debate based on certain assumption also...is up to you want to bind what they said or not wink.gif




siakap5
post Jun 20 2013, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Jun 20 2013, 05:15 PM)
Mr. Wayne, don't buy, keep the money...
malaysia will collapse soon  thumbup.gif
*
not sure collapse or not but bloody weak la Malaysia .
Boleh only the slogan but mostly TAK BOLEH tongue.gif
icemanfx
post Jun 20 2013, 05:33 PM

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QUOTE(blowwater101 @ Jun 20 2013, 05:22 PM)
if u read all my msg, i only mentioned i only share what happened around me, some of my fren in marriage age (27-30)...still havent purchased their 1st house, their combine income easily reach 8k-10k...still look see look see...my point is these group of latent property buyer are exist, and able to give support to the property market in future... just a sharing  biggrin.gif

what i mentioned were come with assumption, same like some ppl said LRT is a vr good factor, some said depends....they debate based on certain assumption also...is up to you want to bind what they said or not  wink.gif
*
Among your friends, how many fall into this group?


zuiko407
post Jun 20 2013, 05:43 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 20 2013, 05:33 PM)
Among your friends, how many fall into this group?
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iceman, all your question i have been asked 15 years ago, i would suggest you to start invest, don't scared this and scared that, start learn more from the practical, then you will have more experience, more knowledge and more friends from property investment industry, from there, you'll get all your answer.
trust me! don't just lepak in the forum without any practice, you will never get the answer and keep curious
blowwater101
post Jun 20 2013, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 20 2013, 05:33 PM)
Among your friends, how many fall into this group?
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30%-50%

dont be surprise, u guys are all active in prop forum and many veteran in prop (another assumption),mayb is hard for you guys to believe why net combine income have 8k still dont buy a property...but i think their existence is important for the investor here...

the reason why they still look see look see....

1. Believe market will collapse, dont know how to do research.

2. why they believe mkt will collapse? many DDD campers scare them off...i think what DDD campers said are make sense, but they fail to digest or interpret the message correctly...(like doct or engineer age 25-30, some of them good in their prof but not good in investment or property), sometimes ppl just alert them just be careful, prop price might fluatuate...bla bla bla...so they look see look see lo...

for example, property market price might have some adjustment in 2013, they might interpret as market might collapse in 2013...in fact...just an adjustment of -10%, they wait for 1-2years, up down up down...end up still look see look see and release that the price increased...same cycle might happen again if they dont learn & dont do research

This post has been edited by blowwater101: Jun 20 2013, 05:53 PM

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