QUOTE(AMINT @ Jun 20 2013, 12:10 PM)
I am not an economist but just saying based on what I think is logic. I believe property prices wont be affected negatively until 2016-2017. why? We have such stimulus like the Economic Tranformation Plan. One of the things is the new MRT phase 1,2,3 and lrt#2,3.
We have employed many foreigners professional and non-professionals to work and actually from the data I have, rental in certain parts of kl is been increasing steadily. well this maybe an artificial effect since it is supported by the projects of the ETP.
I believe since these projects are ongoing, property prices would not be affected as not just foreigners coming but Malaysians are also buying near MRT and LRT. Until around 2016-2017, in which the next GE is around the corner and MRT#1 and LRT#2 almost completed or functional (dunno), then maybe we could see some negative effect. that time MRT#2,#3 and others ETP is still unknown of their status. If BN loses, then we could see something else in the initial stage.
If you ask me, we are in the correct timing to buy near these new MRT, LRT. When all phases completed, I believe price wont be as per current price anymore. bad news for buyer then. This is a chance of a lifetime. one should look into this opportunity just like those early buyers before 2008.
Very property focused point of view... If we look one layer below the ETP, we will start to ask where the funding for stimulus is coming from??? G funds/ borrowing... if its G-funds we're taking about taxes... higher taxes leading to lower disposable income will definitely not push prices up... unless total income increases (in REAL TERMS)... (historical data shows otherwise). borrowing? borrowing in light of the devaluation and weak fundamentals mean we get less and pay more in terms of conversion and interest... both negative outcomes on ETP and property prices. In view of the gradual withdrawal of QE by US (targeted to be completed by end 2014.. i.e. to commence pretty soon unless they want to shock the whole economy) there's going to be a a credit shortage... this means higher interests on borrowings... means G needs to pay more... in order to G to pay more, G taxes more, when G taxes more people get poorer, when people get poorer how to pay more rent or buy more expensive houses? My bet is more on changes in US and Europe's QE position affecting our property value rather than 2016/17 GE.We have employed many foreigners professional and non-professionals to work and actually from the data I have, rental in certain parts of kl is been increasing steadily. well this maybe an artificial effect since it is supported by the projects of the ETP.
I believe since these projects are ongoing, property prices would not be affected as not just foreigners coming but Malaysians are also buying near MRT and LRT. Until around 2016-2017, in which the next GE is around the corner and MRT#1 and LRT#2 almost completed or functional (dunno), then maybe we could see some negative effect. that time MRT#2,#3 and others ETP is still unknown of their status. If BN loses, then we could see something else in the initial stage.
If you ask me, we are in the correct timing to buy near these new MRT, LRT. When all phases completed, I believe price wont be as per current price anymore. bad news for buyer then. This is a chance of a lifetime. one should look into this opportunity just like those early buyers before 2008.
You have a point though that the infrastructure in the pipeline will lead to increase in property value... but will there be enough financially capable demand to support that value??? Will boleh land be a market that attracts foreign investments to do business here? Sophisticated businesses? Services not manufacturing... Like Singapore & Hong Kong? I doubt so... Boleh land will remain in limbo... a resource exporter/ manufacturing country trying to break into the category of services but never really entering the ranks of Singapore and Hong Kong.
Even if we take opportunity and buy now??? will there be enough rental demand when economy weakens? If yes, can this demand afford the high rental? These factors relate to capital appreciation as well.
Why (possible reasons/ events) would there be negative effects in 2016/17???
This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Jun 20 2013, 01:49 PM
Jun 20 2013, 01:44 PM

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