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 V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls

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kidmad
post Jul 15 2013, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 15 2013, 03:50 PM)
FYI,

For every 1% increase on 100K loan balance, monthly payment increases by at least RM60 per month (exponential component of 2-3%). So if your loan balance is:

100K and BLR increase 2%, that's additional RM120 per month.
500K and BLR increase 2% (BLR 8.6%), that's additional RM600 per month.
500K and BLR increase 4% (BLR 10.4%), that's additional RM1200 per month.
1M and BLR increase 4%, that's additional RM2,400 per month.

People talk oh 1% I can take it la so small, but painting out the monthly payments gives a clearer picture... no?

whistling.gif
*
Yup, that's a good point to highlight so those who are planning to go for a property remember to plan the worst out of it. Cause if your loan repayment is rm1.8k today if it shoot up to 10.x% out of the blue.. It will turn out to be rm3.3k.

But Rooney have you thought. If something as simple as that you could have already thought of what makes you think BNM would not do anything to prevent this from happening? Do you really think they would like to see ppl jumping off KLCC out of a sudden? Do you really think they would want everyone to declare bankrupt and have the nation suffer? Look at Greece la.. 20% unemployment rate but at least when I went there for holiday, ppl are still happily walking around and I don't see any beggars around.. KL street have more if you were to compare..
greenstuff
post Jul 15 2013, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 15 2013, 04:30 PM)
Yup, that's a good point to highlight so those who are planning to go for a property remember to plan the worst out of it. Cause if your loan repayment is rm1.8k today if it shoot up to 10.x% out of the blue.. It will turn out to be rm3.3k.

But Rooney  have you thought. If something as simple as that you could have already thought of what makes you think BNM would not do anything to prevent this from happening? Do you really think they would like to see ppl jumping off KLCC out of a sudden? Do you really think they would want everyone to declare bankrupt and have the nation suffer? Look at Greece la.. 20% unemployment rate but at least when I went there for holiday, ppl are still happily walking around and I don't see any beggars around.. KL street have more if you were to compare..
*
Yes I agree wth you. Implementation of higher rate would result in bankruptcy and shops gulung tikar. If BNM really want to do something, lower LTV for second house, higher RPGT and shorter tenure are the prevention steps FIRST before interest rate increment unless the economy is screwed

Rooney1985
post Jul 15 2013, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 15 2013, 04:30 PM)
Yup, that's a good point to highlight so those who are planning to go for a property remember to plan the worst out of it. Cause if your loan repayment is rm1.8k today if it shoot up to 10.x% out of the blue.. It will turn out to be rm3.3k.

But Rooney  have you thought. If something as simple as that you could have already thought of what makes you think BNM would not do anything to prevent this from happening? Do you really think they would like to see ppl jumping off KLCC out of a sudden? Do you really think they would want everyone to declare bankrupt and have the nation suffer? Look at Greece la.. 20% unemployment rate but at least when I went there for holiday, ppl are still happily walking around and I don't see any beggars around.. KL street have more if you were to compare..
*
If it were so easy you'd think UK, Ireland, Spain, Greece all would've prevented what happened to their country and their people... And these are countries that do what they can to look after their people... You think these countries like to see their people going bankrupt, going jobless? They don't have a choice sometimes... but I think these countries have more sympathy for and responsibility towards their people... bolehland.... I think they would sacrifice the mass public first while the elite few cr0nees enjoy the tax payers wealth... I think the coffers all dried up already anyway... You think organisations care about how many people go bankrupt, jump off buildings, sleep on the streets, etc, etc... If they did, we wouldn't have casinos and medicine would be free... Get real its a dog eat dog world... Like someone said earlier... nothing is fair... well the same goes here, if it costs more for Malaysia to borrow, you think they're going to bear that cost for you? Then why even bring up GST in the first place? No body wants to see beggars or people jumping off buildings... BUT at the same time, no one is going to sacrifice their own livelihood so that a stranger doesn't have to go bankrupt.

whistling.gif

This post has been edited by Rooney1985: Jul 15 2013, 04:51 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 15 2013, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 15 2013, 04:30 PM)
Yup, that's a good point to highlight so those who are planning to go for a property remember to plan the worst out of it. Cause if your loan repayment is rm1.8k today if it shoot up to 10.x% out of the blue.. It will turn out to be rm3.3k.

But Rooney  have you thought. If something as simple as that you could have already thought of what makes you think BNM would not do anything to prevent this from happening? Do you really think they would like to see ppl jumping off KLCC out of a sudden? Do you really think they would want everyone to declare bankrupt and have the nation suffer? Look at Greece la.. 20% unemployment rate but at least when I went there for holiday, ppl are still happily walking around and I don't see any beggars around.. KL street have more if you were to compare..
*
greece saw some riots n looting some months ago, but true overall, it's not as bad as one wud think.

portugal same, unemployment 28%, sooccer n siesta goes on, FIFA world up 2014 coming too!

maybe europeans can move around all europe easy, not like here, only more banglas...
AVFAN
post Jul 15 2013, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Jul 15 2013, 03:01 PM)
past 2 weeks or so, the BNM busy intervening the market to maintain the rate. Mind you, active intervening isn't without a cost.

current bond yield has near pre 2008 era and the mortgage rate back then was around 6 - 6.5%....

borrowers owe their gratitude to BNM....
*
rates r under pressure for sure. the cost is a depr rm. question of how long can bnm resist n how far rm will depr... officially, bank analysts say 3.30 to usd is a given, so possible 3.50 then...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 15 2013, 05:08 PM
katijar
post Jul 15 2013, 05:12 PM

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rates r under pressure for sure. the cost is a depr rm. question of how long can bnm resist n how far rm will depr... officially, bank analysts say 3.30 to usd is a given, so possible 3.50 then...

--------------

dump MYR, buy USD now?
Rooney1985
post Jul 15 2013, 05:26 PM

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rclxms.gif thumbup.gif

That should expedite the increase of interest rates....

whistling.gif
kidmad
post Jul 15 2013, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 15 2013, 05:03 PM)
greece saw some riots n looting some months ago, but true overall, it's not as bad as one wud think.

portugal same, unemployment 28%, sooccer n siesta goes on, FIFA world up 2014 coming too!

maybe europeans can move around all europe easy, not like here, only more banglas...
*
AVFAN good point man. Another thing about the Eurozone was the language barrier. Some nation do have better communication options as compared to some thus enabling to move to Zurich, Bourne, Prague, and so on so forth. As an employer do you want to hire a consultant which can converse in all kind of language or do you want to hire someone who can only converse in their own mother tongue.

That's what we should be afraid off if they really implement the same thing here in ASEAN countries... Professionals like us will be much worried.

Also regarding the riots and ppl looting which happened quite sometime, It was last year right? I'm actually pretty happy cause we did took it on streets as well besides of Bersih 2.0 which went into Chaos the others were pretty peaceful yeah.

This post has been edited by kidmad: Jul 15 2013, 05:33 PM
kidmad
post Jul 15 2013, 05:31 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 15 2013, 04:51 PM)
If it were so easy you'd think UK, Ireland, Spain, Greece all would've prevented what happened to their country and their people... And these are countries that do what they can to look after their people... You think these countries like to see their people going bankrupt, going jobless? They don't have a choice sometimes... but I think these countries have more sympathy  for and responsibility towards their people... bolehland.... I think they would sacrifice the mass public first while the elite few cr0nees enjoy the tax payers wealth... I think the coffers all dried up already anyway... You think organisations care about how many people go bankrupt, jump off buildings, sleep on the streets, etc, etc... If they did, we wouldn't have casinos and medicine would be free... Get real its a dog eat dog world... Like someone said earlier... nothing is fair... well the same goes here, if it costs more for Malaysia to borrow, you think they're going to bear that cost for you? Then why even bring up GST in the first place? No body wants to see beggars or people jumping off buildings... BUT at the same time, no one is going to sacrifice their own livelihood so that a stranger doesn't have to go bankrupt.

whistling.gif
*
I like to see how you construct a sentence. Cause all you points were not constructed base on fact... And they were all statement which build base on "I think" ? If those think think think of yours could really happen, then you must be the prime minister or some big shoots pulling the string behind the scene. Stop thinking put your thoughts into action and make it happen. smile.gif
kidmad
post Jul 15 2013, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Jul 15 2013, 05:12 PM)
rates r under pressure for sure. the cost is a depr rm. question of how long can bnm resist n how far rm will depr... officially, bank analysts say 3.30 to usd is a given, so possible 3.50 then...

--------------

dump MYR, buy USD now?
*
If you did enough investment you should know.
When GOLD price drops.. US dollar will shoot up.

biggrin.gif .. You should really start asking the right question katijar. Where did all the GOLD went. Ppl don't sell them to buy MYR la. biggrin.gif
Rooney1985
post Jul 15 2013, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 15 2013, 05:31 PM)
I like to see how you construct a sentence. Cause all you points were not constructed base on fact... And they were all statement which build base on "I think" ? If those think think think of yours could really happen, then you must be the prime minister or some big shoots pulling the string behind the scene. Stop thinking put your thoughts into action and make it happen.  smile.gif
*
Relax la, cool down... this is only my opinion.. why you so serious? I'm not pointing at gun at you and insisting you follow and agree to my opinion... you got your opinion then you share... but please don't tell people what to do... I don't know why everyone is so up tight and defensive when others have opinions that are not all rosy... jeez...

Btw, your points are not constructed based on facts either biggrin.gif Its good to reflect on yourself before criticising others...

Anyway, i was just sharing if you think RM400psf is still a good buy then by all means, best of luck...

whistling.gif
kidmad
post Jul 15 2013, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 15 2013, 05:38 PM)
Relax la, cool down... this is only my opinion.. why you so serious? I'm not pointing at gun at you and insisting you follow and agree to my opinion... you got your opinion then you share... but please don't tell people what to do... I don't know why everyone is so up tight and defensive when others have opinions that are not all rosy... jeez...

Btw, your points are not constructed based on facts either  biggrin.gif  Its good to reflect on yourself before criticising others...

Anyway, i was just sharing if you think RM400psf is still a good buy then by all means, best of luck...

whistling.gif
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Paid the money already. lol. Yeah man I need a little of luck the rest is all up to me on what I'm gonna do next. My points are constructed on series of events which had already happened. Rooney, I don't predict the future thus I'm not gonna talk much about what I think would happen in the future. The only part I do agree with you is on the sentiment that greedy people is all around and price are going up way above means. Whether it will boom or not? I can't tell but I do think by 2015 it might happen. -This is my thought- again it's base on the trending on how the property prices are shooting up.

But if you are saying properties are cold at the moment... I could not agree on this point. I've spent approx. 3 - 4 weeks cold calling agents for Condo which is RM350k and below and to my surprise there is nothing good. I wish I could buy another unit of Puri Ayu Condo and get it renovated nicely but unfortunately the going price is just too high.. RM350k and above and yet only 1 car park lot... I would not want to buy a unit which was bought at rm250k for rm350k today.
agentdiary
post Jul 15 2013, 06:36 PM

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i virtually watch MGS every trading day since 2011 and trade/balance payment/savings in monthly basis.

a scientific and calculated guess is, as long as our reserve is enough to cover. To gain in reserve, we must have + trade balance or + fiscal balance or both. What we're facing now is a looming problems:

1. our saving to GDP has shrank from 130+% in 2008 to 100% in May 2013, household debts increase from 70+% to 82% in the same period. A typical over dependency consumption economy that our govt adopt lately.

2. We have high reserve but our total reserve is only able to cover about 85% of govt debts. still short by 15%!

3. Balance payment kept dropping in higher speed since Jan 2013. And we're going to see red very very soon for the first time in 16 yrs!!! When it''s red, reserve will be used up even faster rate to pay for large ticket on going project like MRT which is hugely capitalized.

4. To cover the short, apart from the above, we can also sell bond oversea which BNM is doing now. Current the ownership has been increase tremendously fast from merely 20% in 2010 to over 40% now. The price? We're giving up more control in interests rate to external force.

So, guess what next? only god knows.......


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 15 2013, 05:08 PM)
rates r under pressure for sure. the cost is a depr rm. question of how long can bnm resist n how far rm will depr... officially, bank analysts say 3.30 to usd is a given, so possible 3.50 then...
*
Rooney1985
post Jul 15 2013, 07:07 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 15 2013, 05:47 PM)
Paid the money already. lol. Yeah man I need a little of luck the rest is all up to me on what I'm gonna do next. My points are constructed on series of events which had already happened. Rooney, I don't predict the future thus I'm not gonna talk much about what I think would happen in the future. The only part I do agree with you is on the sentiment that greedy people is all around and price are going up way above means. Whether it will boom or not? I can't tell but I do think by 2015 it might happen. -This is my thought- again it's base on the trending on how the property prices are shooting up.

But if you are saying properties are cold at the moment... I could not agree on this point. I've spent approx. 3 - 4 weeks cold calling agents for Condo which is RM350k and below and to my surprise there is nothing good. I wish I could buy another unit of Puri Ayu Condo and get it renovated nicely but unfortunately the going price is just too high.. RM350k and above and yet only 1 car park lot... I would not want to buy a unit which was bought at rm250k for rm350k today.
*
I think you made some good points above... Yea current price trend is up, but future price don't depend solely on historical data... If that's the case it'll always be up... Even you don't want to buy a unit that is priced almost 50% more in what 2yrs? Or less? If you have that mindset, what do you think others are thinking? It takes time for buyers to accept price increase until affordability kicks in that's when even if they accept they can't afford it... On the flip side, it takes time for seller to accept that majority can't afford their prices or are unwilling to accept that price to value... I'm not saying property market is cold I saying there's a stand off now... Either people can't afford it or they can't accept it... Those that accepted it and can afford it are already in... And there's only one way left for prices that's down lest foreigners stry buying up or owners can keep holding on... This is my opinion...
cwhong
post Jul 15 2013, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Jul 14 2013, 11:04 PM)
Just curious... mind sharing the prospects of Iskandar?
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*The theme parks (LEgo, Kitty and one more forgot which is confirm coming but not yet construct)
*the OnG Hub at Pasir Gudang (which is old news) but the high income ppl need a place call home ......
*Possibility MRT SG crossing over southern Johor (do not what is the chances, fully depend on the relationships Gov of Johor and SG counterpart)
*ERL from KL-SG (possibility is quite high but not in the near 3 yrs)
*SG and MY joint developement on a plot of land in Iskandar around putri harbour
*Johor Gov looking for possibility to open up the props quota (now 40% for BUMI lots)
*recently Iskandar Developent slowing down the pace to sell lands for developer for slowly curb the rapid developement now was facing .... means to control and for healthy appreciation of props in Iskandar....

and maybe more than this which i may not know ...... feel free to comments as the news is out there and most of them is in speculation only lah ......

icon_rolleyes.gif
MimiMiao
post Jul 15 2013, 10:25 PM

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i can see that the property prices and launches kind of stagnant already but still hovering a high price.. true?
kh8668
post Jul 15 2013, 10:34 PM

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QUOTE(MimiMiao @ Jul 15 2013, 10:25 PM)
i can see that the property prices and launches kind of stagnant already but still hovering a high price.. true?
*
still got a lot of new launches and of course with high price even after rebate/discount sweat.gif
MimiMiao
post Jul 15 2013, 10:39 PM

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PJ launches already >1k psf @.@
axisresidence17
post Jul 15 2013, 10:44 PM

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wow..now im getting divided whether I should get a place fory little sister now or to wait..prices really going to the roof now..
kidmad
post Jul 15 2013, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Jul 15 2013, 07:07 PM)
I think you made some good points above... Yea current price trend is up, but future price don't depend solely on historical data... If that's the case it'll always be up... Even you don't want to buy a unit that is priced almost 50% more in what 2yrs? Or less? If you have that mindset, what do you think others are thinking? It takes time for buyers to accept price increase until affordability kicks in that's when even if they accept they can't afford it... On the flip side, it takes time for seller to accept that majority can't afford their prices or are unwilling to accept that price to value... I'm not saying property market is cold I saying there's a stand off now... Either people can't afford it or they can't accept it... Those that accepted it and can afford it are already in... And there's only one way left for prices that's down lest foreigners stry buying up or owners can keep holding on... This is my opinion...
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true thus there is one thing which im wondering. Why does bank negara still allow this kind of flipping event to happen? 60% out of your total nett salary was it really working? Those jokers are still buying like there is no tomorrow. I don't understand the logic of as long as you can prove to the bank that your unit is for investment and there is sum figures going into your account those are considered income. which at the same thing you are serving your loan. Also an increase of 50% for the same unit in merely 2 years time to me that's ridiculous. Well it's good for me.. but that's only for now. On a long run we are actually on a losing end.. Reason? If you sell them.. you would not be able to buy anything more decent at that price. It will cause ppl to further speculate.. Because from the previous sale let's say for a single unit.. Most likely you will free up approx 150k.. With 150k ppl can continue to flip... and now they can go for those bigger ones... with the logic above they can do it for multiple unit... Bank NEGARA should relly do something about this if they want to stop flippers.

Furthermore what are they thinking man... Foreigner who can afford rm500k will be able to purchase a prop? its time to mark up at least rm1.5m and above la. singaporeans.. expat... investor from oversea are really taking advantage of these rm500k cap to mass purchase our property.. This resulted to fake demand... which again further escalates the property prices.. Though the selling process would take sometime.. But the demand from a non local should be paid with a premium price.. Not something the same of what we are paying.

if you are saying that the property will just boom like that overnight.. I would not agree with you no matter what. If things really do go bad.. You will have a series of event happening.. i was expecting after the election things would go slow thus was holding my money for a couple of months... Waiting for something BAD to happen but it seems like it was the other way round.

Btw i'm very conservative. I will only buy if the place if near to fully occupancy.. which means i don't buy new release.. i rather pay the lawyer fee and 10% deposit to make sure no headaches for me in the future. FREEHOLD is a must.. and 2 car park at least.. 1 car park soho i really think that would be an issue when you want to sell off your unit in the future.

a Little update. For a RM430k apartment.. with 10% + S&P lawyer + Bank Lawyer.. It cost me RM43k + RM12.4k + RM6k+ it's gone just like that... sad.gif

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