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 Car price reduction, what can we expect?

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mystvearn
post May 8 2013, 12:42 PM

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QUOTE(kimsim @ May 8 2013, 09:01 AM)
For me I'm living in m'sia.

For my own car still can last until died.

For my petrol price still can keep remain as Rm1.9 per litre it is very good new to me.

Once the car price to be when down, but the petrol price to be increase as double up, that's really worst to be life's with exp paying the petrol price, that is my big concern.

How bout your? Imported car like Toyota Wish 1.8L brand new and sell here for Rm80k and the petrol price per litre as Rm3.80 it is worth to have a car?
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Best solution, no car tax, but continue petrol subsidy. However, it this happens, Malaysians will go buy cars, extra cars. Put all those cars on the road. Jam like Brazil-11 hour commute. The gomen go devalue currency so that our goods laku abroad. The problem with this is that the public need to pay more for cars. When £ was highest to RM, just before crisis, VW Golf GTI cost about £18k new. Now it cost £25-28k. Inflation alone is not enough to make the price jump £7k. This is the £ jatuh value. At current rate, people will not buy hybrids, because the lifespan of the car is not enough to justify the fuel cost. Even Accord 2.0 vs 2.4 same. Why pay RM30k extra, what basically is the same car. Might as well use as petrol. That is why that Inspira tagline, 2smart drivers get it" or something like that is true. RM20k is good amount of petrol for 5 years.

Example: If you make one baju cap ayam at RM10, you sell it RM 20 Malaysia. Cost to sell it overseas is RM25 (for mass produced item). That baju comes to UK is £5+. That same baju to be made in UK is £10 (why £10? Because they have to pay local labour rate), come here, cost of shipping and selling overseas is £12. Come to Malaysia, that £12 is about RM60.

Frugal buyer will choose the RM20 shirt. Unless super rich or idiot, no one will want to buy a RM60 shirt just because "Made in the UK". In order to be good, UK needs to make stuff people want. Jaguars, Aston Martin, LandRover, these are stuff people want to buy.


QUOTE(Alan @ May 8 2013, 09:12 AM)
About proton    : Need to partner with others to survive and develop. Malaysia is too small to fund the it. Suck money in instead of circulate within country/leak out of the country.
About gov        : why heavy tax then subsidise petrol? Like put money inside gov pocket (for invest/earn interest) then only vomit back to buyer through pertrol subsidy. Those who travel less, get less. Also safety features are compromised.
About currency : US/china has less impact as they can survive without import, their agriculture/food supply is strong enough to supply their own. Malaysia now seems neither importer nor exporter, rice/vegetables/or even fish import from asean countries. The best exporting goods are still palm oil/petrol (which direct beneficial to cooperation/stake holders). Now vietnam coming up with "cheaper labour". So need to further devalue the currency for "cheaper labour"? There left only 7y to 2020.. lets see how the curreny and "transformasi" work out.
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Every country exploits something in order to stay competitive. UK = £ value (highest currency currently in the world). China = cheap labour (not really now. They also go subcon Myanmar, Vietnam people to do the job). China controls 95% of rare earth material prices. US = Political strategy and the fact that trading internationally needs to be in USD even though not between US unless got MOU between countries. Malaysia exploits labour market. Those Bangla Nasional and co are willing to do jobs Malaysians don't want. Malaysia is a net exporter of semiconductor products. We are a net importer of food products. Currently, Intel CPU worth more than rice the same amount weight to weight with uncooked rice. Even though the effort to tanam and tuai padi is actually more compared to just pressing buttons at Intel factory. As long as what we produce is wanted overseas, Malaysia will remain solvent.

QUOTE(rcracer @ May 8 2013, 09:46 AM)
another point to consider, there are major assembly plants in malaysia simply because to get cheaper tax assembling cars here

but if CBU cars were as cheap, then whats the point of keeping the assembly plants operating, might as well close it. so even more people are affected, jobs, suppliers, supply chains
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CKD cars is just a stop-gap measure because Proton not doing that well. If tomorrow, everyone decides to buy Proton and say "Tak Nak" to foreign brands then those CKD workers will be working as part of supply chain to Proton. Back to economics/world news, if you read in paper, China-Japan got fighting for some small island in the middle of ocean. Both say theirs. Problem for Japan is that, unlike the 1990's, China is the dominant player here. Japan sells cars to China. Chinese people riot (can read news), they see a Honda, they torch it. The see a Toyota they vandalise it. To the point Jap gomen need to make peace with China and say please buy back our cars.

Come back to Malaysia, the moment Malaysian do/say something, Malaysians will automatically say this guy tak boleh pakai and will percaya that overseas expert/product.

QUOTE(dares @ May 8 2013, 10:49 AM)
By importing all the parts? Kinda defeats the purpose of CKD isn't it?
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CKD provide jobs to people. Also, compared to CBU, you can import more parts in the same ship because parts are stacked closely. You cannot stack CBU cars like tetris in container ship. Each car must go in a container box. Most can fit a 40 foot box is 2 or 3 (if you are buying smart cars). If 20 container boxes = 40 CBU cars. It will be better to fit 20 containers with car parts. You will get more than 40 car parts.

Also, even though you see got lots of red tape to open business in Malaysia, those are just on paper. The gomen got "gentleman's agreement" with companies. One of the reason Intel, AMD, Hybrid cars, CKD cars, AC shops, WD HDD setup shop here is that the gomen give good deal. You make kilang here, we don't tax your business 10 years or so. Janji you take local workers. Najib wants to make Malaysia Hybrid car hub. After the gomen screwed in inviting VW and making Malaysia the CKD hub like Thai/Indon. Hybrid is the only thing left. The only player still thinking to setup shop is Toyota. Honda already has started building its Hybrid factory here. Surely Honda got good deal from Gomen. Also, looking at the car market sector, Honda wants to remain a serious player in the <RM170k car category after Proton. That "agreement" is approved by Bank Negara. If not approve, they will tell MITI and MOF. Bank Negara on its own will not issue statements unless the Menteri of those two Kementerian seriously damage the Malaysia economy by issuing irresponsible statements. Hopefully someone competent remains at MITI and MOF. Dato' Pa was a good working politician previously. Not sure who will take over. Bank Negara needs to think about people's livelihood. THEY are the unsung heroes of Malaysia. It is like medcine, the surgeon gets the glory for the operation. Unknown to many people, it is actually the Anaesthetist who should be congratulated. Surgeon only know how to slice here/there, any mistake, the anaesthetist need to come in and save their ass. Then surgeon get credit. Ini memang lembu punya susu, sapi dapat nama.

Who knows why Toyota don't want to make kilang here yet. My only speculation, their more advanced hybrid system is more sensitive to our climate. That is why until now, people are still pessimistic about hybrids. Regardless of how good the battery system is, it has a operating temperature range. Too high and it will degrade. That is why some hybrids now have passive or active cooling system. Either use the car AC to cool the battery while running or the hybrid has its own cooling system. Smart car buyers will not buy Hybrid. Only reason people buy the CR-Z is for the looks. If honda makes a petrol version of that car, no one cares the hybrid version. Smart buyers will get diesel or direct force injection + turbocharger to get more power from a smaller CC engine.

The Toyota 86 is a good car, but that boxer engine is slightly flawed. After 2k rpm, the power is less between 2-3k rpm. Toyota already planning a better version engine of that car next year onwards. CVT cures this by the adjustable belt in the gears. VW/BMW on the other hand thinks that placing 9 gears in a car is the best solution. Either way, all want to maximise the best engine capacity at the given RPM. My personal view is that CVT is ultimately better as it is cheaper, lighter with fewer moving parts. The less moving parts in the car the better. Having 9 gears with auto gear jumps/skipping gears is a potential disaster for start/stop traffic. That is why you see those DSG boxes fried in traffic jams. Only problem with CVT is the rubber band effect. You tekan, nothing happens, then a lot happens. User feels disconnected unlike cars with proper gears. This is just down to not being familiar with the CVT.
dares
post May 8 2013, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(mystvearn @ May 8 2013, 12:42 PM)
WALL OF TEXT
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notworthy.gif notworthy.gif

Thanks for taking the time to explain, very educational indeed.
mystvearn
post May 8 2013, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(dares @ May 8 2013, 12:49 PM)
notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif

Thanks for taking the time to explain, very educational indeed.
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WALL OF TEXT laugh.gif I like that idea.

Next time someone wants to bash proton or want cheap cars, tell them it ain't gonna happen regardless who is in power. Nowdays, countries with pegged currencies will not allow its currency to be higher value than it is worth. Lower value yes. It means that we produce goods when sell international, our goods will be more attractive. The lower the currency value, the more people buy from that country because good value for money. When people buy from that country, people in that country have jobs, got income-productivity. Better than those without jobs doing nothing but got higher currency. That is why a lot of people in so called mat salleh country are on benefits.

In long term future, all world currencies will be pegged and not freely trade. Sure, you can buy it at forex shop, but the amount you buy is insignificant to the amount needed for money speculation. Some countries like Cuba are even more extreme. You can only buy their currency at Cuba. Before you leave Cuba, you need to exchange all back into USD.

The only time you will see a new BMW cost RM150k is in your dreams or when GST, free and taxed petrol prices, privatised healthcare happens. Then cars will be cheap. Those who benefit most will be the rich cause they get to buy that RM150k BMW and still afford the petrol that goes into the cars. GST to them is just some number. BTW, Hybrids will remain tax free forever. Once you exclude tax, ask people to setup shop here, then you are allowing them that benefit which they don't want to let go. Hybrid cars are insignificant as the amount is smaller compared to normal non-hybrid cars. Same like BR1M. Will continue on forever. Once people get it, hard to let go. Regardless of which gomen in charge.

BTW in UK, car insurance is so expensive. Ask anyone here. Sometimes insurance alone is more than that the car. It is normal for bangar car cost £400, but insured a year at £700+. Also over there car insurance is driver based, not vehicle based like over here. My brother cannot simply drive my car unless he has premium coverage insurance which allows any cars. Only I can drive my own car.

If GST is implemented, you will see people who are very poor off will go to supermarket, put items in bag, at checkout counter, after total items are counted for, they will return one or two items which they can't afford just to be able to pay for the items. Unless of course, the GST is implemented directly onto the items (before checkout counter) then you will see that your RM 100 is only enough for 10 kg of rice.

So, best forget whatever Rafizi is saying for now about that 70% reduction in 5 years. Will not happen because it will destabilise new and used car market and people who are frugal (which is all malaysians. Study made shows Malaysians are the most frugal people in the world-read in Malaysianinsider), they will not buy cars either new or used. Why buy car this year, I might as well wait 5 years. I get even cheaper cars. It has happened before. After Persona launched, and just before NAP announcement. People were holding back buying cars -across the range just to see how cheaper cars will be. In the end, you only get between RM2-5k discount, dependent on make. People actually bought less.

This post has been edited by mystvearn: May 8 2013, 02:22 PM
kcng
post May 8 2013, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(dares @ May 8 2013, 10:49 AM)
By importing all the parts? Kinda defeats the purpose of CKD isn't it?
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yes and no...

QUOTE(rcracer @ May 8 2013, 11:02 AM)
yes but lower costs allow them to offer lower pricings even if taxes are the same.

but if you were given a ckd and cbu at same price, knowing our local quality i will choose cbu always.
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CKD is not always cheaper...
and CBU is not that godlike...
trust me...

example, honda jazz hybrid... go figure...

==========

Point is, this sensitive topic, requires people to be involved in the industry to understand...
those outside will only see things on the surface and no amount of explaining to them will make them understand...

Let me see if my last 2 line proves me right.
smile.gif

This post has been edited by kcng: May 8 2013, 02:19 PM
mystvearn
post May 8 2013, 02:39 PM

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Forgot to mention that the current RM pegged value now is the best. If too low, like after first economic crisis, normal people can't afford stuff. If too high people will not buy Malaysian stuff on the international market.

Also, this malay proverb is very true. "Bukan senang nak hidup senang".

I see this BBC documentary. Chinese citizens don't like taking loans to buy car/house. <5% of the population take loans. The BBC documentary followed this farmer, wanting to buy a car. Saved money for more than 10 years to buy a car. When the documentary followed this family, they were 3 months reaching their goal to buy car outright. If you buy a car/house with loan, the first few years of the ownership is used to pay loan. You take loan at RM90k for RM 75k car for 9 years. The first 5 years is used to payback the loan difference of RM15k. So you happily pay that RM700 not knowing that the car is not at all yours. Same with property. Let's say that within 9 years you get better salary, then want to pay off full amount hutang to bank. Bank will allow you to do so, but will have penalty. This penalty is because they no longer can get that RM700 from you monthly.

So if possible don't take loan, buy outright. You will be richer in the process.

This post has been edited by mystvearn: May 8 2013, 03:02 PM
SUSendau02
post May 8 2013, 03:31 PM

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they give 5k discount but take away things worth more than 10k, u want?
BravoZeroTwo
post May 8 2013, 03:41 PM

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Lower car pricing is always welcomed if , fuel prices remain the same. If not, it will be disaster. Just imagine, today everything has gone like 30% to 40% though fuel price is at RM1.90. Yet, cost of living is so so high for 90% of the population. If fuel price goes up to non sudsidised rate, what will happen ? This has happened in 2008 when fuel price was at RM2.60/2.70. Everything went up thereafter but when fuel price comes down to present rate, whatever shot up never came down ever since 2008. That's my concern, bros.
BravoZeroTwo
post May 8 2013, 03:53 PM

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Some policies once implemented, is virtually irreversible.
kadajawi
post May 8 2013, 04:44 PM

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Wow. And I thought my postings were long.

As for traffic jams... As long as there are not more people there to drive the cars there won't be more traffic jams, only newer cars as old cars are finally scrapped (some really need to be removed from the roads...).

Taxes only need to go down for sensible cars. You want luxury, fun etc. please pay for it. No need to make a big BMW cheaper. Even powerful versions of a car (say B segment over 100 HP) should be taxed higher.

One problem right now in Malaysia is the crappy cars in awful condition on our roads.
stix
post May 8 2013, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(mystvearn @ May 8 2013, 02:39 PM)
Forgot to mention that the current RM pegged value now is the best. If too low, like after first economic crisis, normal people can't afford stuff. If too high people will not buy Malaysian stuff on the international market.

Also, this malay proverb is very true. "Bukan senang nak hidup senang".

I see this BBC documentary. Chinese citizens don't like taking loans to buy car/house. <5% of the population take loans. The BBC documentary followed this farmer, wanting to buy a car. Saved money for more than 10 years to buy a car. When the documentary followed this family, they were 3 months reaching their goal to buy car outright. If you buy a car/house with loan, the first few years of the ownership is used to pay loan. You take loan at RM90k for RM 75k car for 9 years. The first 5 years is used to payback the loan difference of RM15k. So you happily pay that RM700 not knowing that the car is not at all yours. Same with property. Let's say that within 9 years you get better salary, then want to pay off full amount hutang to bank. Bank will allow you to do so, but will have penalty. This penalty is because they no longer can get that RM700 from you monthly.

So if possible don't take loan, buy outright. You will be richer in the process.
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This mentality will never work here. People are too obsessed with owning what they cant afford.
stix
post May 8 2013, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(kadajawi @ May 8 2013, 04:44 PM)
Wow. And I thought my postings were long.

As for traffic jams... As long as there are not more people there to drive the cars there won't be more traffic jams, only newer cars as old cars are finally scrapped (some really need to be removed from the roads...).

Taxes only need to go down for sensible cars. You want luxury, fun etc. please pay for it. No need to make a big BMW cheaper. Even powerful versions of a car (say B segment over 100 HP) should be taxed higher.

One problem right now in Malaysia is the crappy cars in awful condition on our roads.
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I really don't want to go in to the 'why the rich needs to pay more when they pay even more taxes' topic. It's like you're saying the poor should not pay the government tax when they are dining in a restaurant while the rich has too.

As for traffic jams, why is it so hard to comprehend by some people. Lower down the car prices and at the same time, cap the maximum amount of years that you can extend on your car loan. If you can afford to get a Myvi within 5 years, perhaps you'll be able to get a civic maybe(?) when taxes are removed. If one dreams of extending their loan to 9 years and finally being able to get their dream mercedes, i'd say rolleyes.gif . With this implemented, people can buy better cars at current current prices and not having the flexibility to splurge on 2 or 3 extra cars.
6UE5T
post May 8 2013, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(stix @ May 8 2013, 04:52 PM)
...
As for traffic jams, why is it so hard to comprehend by some people. Lower down the car prices and at the same time, cap the maximum amount of years that you can extend on your car loan. If you can afford to get a Myvi within 5 years, perhaps you'll be able to get a civic maybe(?) when taxes are removed. If one dreams of extending their loan to 9 years and finally being able to get their dream mercedes, i'd say rolleyes.gif . With this implemented, people can buy better cars at current current prices and not having the flexibility to splurge on 2 or 3 extra cars.
*
I agree with this! Can lower the car prices a bit but make it more difficult to get huge loans for such very long periods! Make the laon periods much shorter (say max 5yrs) and the minimum initial cash payment higher (say 35-50%), not like 5-10% only like now.
stix
post May 8 2013, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(6UE5T @ May 8 2013, 05:08 PM)
I agree with this! Can lower the car prices a bit but make it more difficult to get huge loans for such very long periods! Make the laon periods much shorter (say max 5yrs) and the minimum initial cash payment higher (say 35-50%), not like 5-10% only like now.
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Do it Singapore style biggrin.gif but then again, the people will burn down houses if the government sets such policies as i can see most who wants taxes to be abolished are the ones who dream of buy beemers at 80k, rather than the ones who are really in need of a transport.
dares
post May 8 2013, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(6UE5T @ May 8 2013, 05:08 PM)
I agree with this! Can lower the car prices a bit but make it more difficult to get huge loans for such very long periods! Make the laon periods much shorter (say max 5yrs) and the minimum initial cash payment higher (say 35-50%), not like 5-10% only like now.
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The roads will be flooded with Vivas ph34r.gif
lowpro
post May 8 2013, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(stix @ May 8 2013, 05:39 PM)
Do it Singapore style  biggrin.gif  but then again, the people will burn down houses if the government sets such policies as i can see most who wants taxes to be abolished are the ones who dream of buy beemers at 80k, rather than the ones who are really in need of a transport.
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i think singapore is like this:

car price high
petrol price high
spare parts cheap

maybe car also can get a bit cheaper if you buy those with red number plate (can use from 7pm to 7am and weekends only)

This post has been edited by lowpro: May 8 2013, 06:22 PM
kadajawi
post May 8 2013, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(stix @ May 8 2013, 04:52 PM)
I really don't want to go in to the 'why the rich needs to pay more when they pay even more taxes' topic. It's like you're saying the poor should not pay the government tax when they are dining in a restaurant while the rich has too.

As for traffic jams, why is it so hard to comprehend by some people. Lower down the car prices and at the same time, cap the maximum amount of years that you can extend on your car loan. If you can afford to get a Myvi within 5 years, perhaps you'll be able to get a civic maybe(?) when taxes are removed. If one dreams of extending their loan to 9 years and finally being able to get their dream mercedes, i'd say rolleyes.gif . With this implemented, people can buy better cars at current current prices and not having the flexibility to splurge on 2 or 3 extra cars.
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Because they also profit from the country having money to spend on better infrastructure, better education, etc. So those who can manage to pay more should pay more, IMHO (all within reasonable limits). Also, higher taxes for luxury items/cars is IMHO acceptable. Again, within reasonable limits. S class leave at 100% tax, and below that gradually reduce. Something like that. The government doesn't need to help rich people build a collection of supercars.

Shorter loans are desirable, as people should have more financial certainty. With lower taxes for reasonable cars I expect those really crappy cars to disappear from Malaysian roads. Cars that polute like no tomorrow, that are dangerous at any speed. Other than that people will be able to drive better cars, especially at the low end of the market.

Singapore needs to limit the number of cars on the road... that should be the main reason for the high car prices (after all the right to buy a car is auctioned off, and there is a limited number of licenses). Makes sense on such a small island, but Malaysia has the space. Only KL suffers from the number of cars, so once there is a decent and safe to use public transport system a congestion charge should be a good thing. Maybe give free car parks to people who do car pooling, or next to public transport hubs so that people from outside can drive there, and then switch to public transport.

Actually AFAIK red numberplate can be used between 7am and 7pm, but you'll have to pay for it.
SUSBerhoff
post May 8 2013, 10:40 PM

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better buy now before govt introduce GST.
mystvearn
post May 9 2013, 12:28 AM

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QUOTE(Berhoff @ May 8 2013, 10:40 PM)
better buy now before govt introduce GST.
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That is why I don't like to talk so much on F&F or I start to write non-stop:lol:

GST for goods. AFAIK, cars are not classified as GST. Your susu segar, ayamas nugget, intel CPU is. 6% GST on cars is insane. BN Gomen not that stupid knowing that car prices was one reason PR won a lot of seats.

The problem with buying cars is that, unless necessary don't buy a car. That same principle with laptops/pc parts. Only buy when absolute necessary. If you are a frugal person, you will not care what brand is on offer and buy any car. For laptops, this can easily be done. Why buy that Vaio, if Toshiba has the same specs with less price. Unfortunately for cars you need to factor resale value, SC, cost of onwership etc into it so it is not really clear cut. However, a current Kia K5 has about the same gadgets as a Merc W221. In some cases more. LED's, reverse camera were not available then. Technology from more expensive cars will trickle down to everyday cars as times goes on. So if you want to buy a NEW car for the max lifespan, best resale value, easiest to find spare parts, always go for a car which was just recently announced and not a FL. the FL will be better than the original model, and fixed the problems, but you know that your car will be the "current" model for the last 2 years compared to the original model which is the "current" car for 4 years. Can get new spare parts and not some kereta potong.

Unless of course you are buying a proton. FL is actually the best model to get, and the Preve hatchback too, cause they fixed all the problems in original model laugh.gif Also, Proton models last for at least 7 years between refresh, so it will be "current" for a long time. The best Satria is the newest satria model, got R3 bits on it. Best saga, is the FLX+. For perodua, don't bother. It is just the same car regardless of the word: special, limited, race, sports, used on the back. It will not change anything, though some people say that the sports edition is better than the stock model because it got spoiler and spoilers are used on sports cars:lol:

Because we live in bolehland, we are stuck with proton. Either you like it or not, Proton is there. Those who don't care, will just get that inspira, while those who hate, will go with a Vios tin kosong spec because that T badge = god mode in Quake 3 laugh.gif The good thing about boycotting protons now is that the cars are actually getting better. More like they are forced to get better to regain market share.

I think I should sleep now before I merapu some more. Well, TS said wanted serious discussion, so my serious part already over. Cannot contribute more. laugh.gif


rcracer
post May 9 2013, 10:33 AM

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so in summary, don't hope anything change
mystvearn
post May 9 2013, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(rcracer @ May 9 2013, 10:33 AM)
so in summary, don't hope anything change
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It will change, but very subtle, very slowly. Not RM10k/year difference. Those used car salesman will all bankrupt if you do that. RM5k/year at most. Even then used car salesman will tension. RM5k/year cheaper = RM5k lost per car. Now times 10 cars same make, RM10k gone like that. Unless of course, gomen decide, to remove tax altogether like hybrid-which is unlikely.

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