Like I said in paultan. This will be a very long reply...sorry. You only need to understand this once.
Car sales will be like normal-car prices gradually slash-by not much. Lets say that 20-30% removed over 5 years. You will not feel it immediately as newer models of the same make will go up with each model (except for the VW Golf Mk 7 which is the same price mk6-mk7). Price goes up with inflation. Unavoidable. So gomen remove that 20-30%, so the newer model will actually cost about the same as the model it replaces.
It is actually worse in UK. I've been there 7 years.
Car cheap. Petrol £1.40/liter with the gomen there increase petrol prices twice every year by few pence. Then, labour, parts cost expensive. That is why people there, normal service all DIY. Even change broken light also DIY. This is because normal service ~£300. Over here RM300. Our labour is cheap. Who the hell wants to pay RM1.5k for routine service. Also, in UK, there is a 20% VAT on almost every item you buy. However, in UK you can survive with public transport alone. Cannot be done here.
We actually have it way better compared to them. Sure car expensive, but our purchasing power was never big to begin with. £1 = RM4.7x. Rafizi's statement is a populist move. Can be done, but gomen need to be ultra efficient/no corruption. Even if PR come in, Bank Negara will step in if budgets not balanced. PR wants to balance both cashflow and make cars cheap the same time.
Even if PR come in, Proton will survive. There are more than 10k people working in Proton. They have family members. Overall you got at least 30k people working from parts to SC. If you close Proton, who are going to give them jobs. 30k is a lot of people that can vote. Plus that with their sedara mara, any gomen that comes in cannot just close shop.
Rather than wishing "Proton Just Die" better bring in people like DSZ. DSZ was going somewhere. Now it is DRB's problem. Problem is, my sources inside Proton now a lot quit, DRB has a ruthless culture. That is why you see Proton Motorsports fb and Gomen fb website have opening places for Proton. I think I saw that last week. At least 30 vacant places, including senior level jobs. If you are qualified, better apply there. At least now you can help make it better rather than just talk: "Proton just die".
For the next 5 years, maybe current BN can copy the PR manifesto, say we will abolish 70% tax, after increasing fuel price, GST. Bank Negara as the safekeeper non-political organisation will make sure that if car taxes are removed, the nation does not go bankrupt. If PR comes in, and Bank Negara does not agree, the 70% will not be done. Bank Negara already come out with a ruling to for car purchase. Loan based on NET income, not GROSS income. This is done to protect the Malaysian consumer in order not to be in too much debt.
So, a cikgu sekolah, can no longer buy a RM300k Merc/BMW based on the Gross income of RM3k but must minus expenses. So now can only qualify at most a RM 70k car.
Bank Negara also needs to monitor cash outflow, currency levels, attack against currency (forex speculation), market trends. That is why, even though the gomen banyak hutang, as long as the hutang is done in RM, gomen will never go bankrupt. If Malaysia hutang China with RM, Malaysia will never be out of pocket, because Bank Negara can just print more money. The problem is when Malaysia hutang in €, $, £. Now, Malaysia cannot just go print those currencies. Most easy example: Go wiki Hyperinflation, specifically Zimbabwe. That country kena hentam kaw-kaw by UK (mostly) and forex traders, currency worthless-but the country is still working. In fact, if you noticed, from 1 bil Zimbabwe : 1usd, now 10k zimbabwe : 1 USD. That currency fluctuates too much for it to be considered stable. Once Zimbabwe currency is in freefall, the forex traders will buy it back. So the currency will have value again.
This is the same problem faced when Malaysia economic crisis. Tun M go ask people to spend. Logic behind this is if money is not circulated, it is worthless. You got money, simpan under bantal, it does not generate income. At least money in bank, bank can use for investment. Using money during an economic crisis to buy stuff actually is one method to make currency stable. Other methods include devaluing currency. Right now, if you notice, RM is quite strong against USD, GBP, but our currency is actually pegged by Bank Negara. Bank Negara now primarily follows the China Renmibi. I think it is at RM1 : 2 Renmibi or somewhere there. USD not a stable currency to peg on. Renmibi is artificially devalued. US, UK all dah ask China to increase currency. The economic crisis in UK, US is partly caused by China. China keeping its currency worthless, so outflow of currency from UK, US as they import China made items. Now China use it to buy gold reserves, and not importing stuff from UK/US block. So what happens is you see the Mat salleh so poor now. The € currency so bad. China also use the money to develop stuff inside its country, further alienating the Mat sallehs.
Bank Negara sees this, and decides, we will follow China at a 2:1 ratio. Why 2:1? It seems that Malaysia's manufacturing/output/export capacity is worth twice as much as China. That is in simple terms. So we are worth twice compared to China labour. Also, it protects the RM from the Forex speculators quite nicely. So you see that even though our RM: Renmibi may change, it will not be drastic. Of course, we based the currency on the gold reserves, but Bank Negara kind of binned that idea after our currency was attacked. Go wiki Malaysia currency. Malaysia was a key player in Forex exchange. Before the econ crisis, the country was the top 5 player in world currency manipulation. That was how maintained RM value.
If we followed DSAI, borrow IMF, Malaysia will surrender its RM sovereignty to a foreign body. IMF will bail out the country, but RM will no longer ours to control. See the € now. Its more of Germany dominating currency against Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Cyprus. Those countries kna tibai with Germany. Why Germany ok, the rest KO? Germany is a net exporter. IT makes stuff people want to buy. VW AG, BMW AG, Merc AG, all from Germany. China also want German cars don't want some Cherry.
The problem with not borrowing from IMF: our RM reserves was wiped out. More like the Forex speculation Malaysia was happily doing before got wiped off. IMF, and matsalleh say currency pegging is cheating. Actually it is sort of cheating. That time RM was pegged to USD at rate of 1USD: RM4, then lowered to RM 3.8, then RM3.5. After that we pegged to Renmibi. That is why now you see we have better currency to USD/GBP. I went to UK at a time when £1 was RM 7.2. Now it is RM 4.7. Before crisis it was RM 3.8 (best). How is this pegging possible? By controlling outflow of RM. That is why, if you got kids studying overseas, you want to hantar more than RM10k, need to get Bank Negara approval.
I suspect that the US/UK currency will devalue more and Malaysia will remain relatively stable with China. The matsalehs UK/EU/US cannot do anything with China. China allows daily currency trade. At the end of the day, the currency resets to a rate determined by the central bank. Also, China already bought USD 20 trillion of US bonds, at least. That time when USD was before crisis. That Meryl Lynch, Lehman Brothers crisis. Now, China is buying up all the gold it can get. Your wedding ring included. Last I read, China has the 6th highest gold reserves in the world. 1st - still US. Within 20 years, the gold reserves should be on par or surpass US.
So, how is this related to cars?
A lot. RM strength determines how much you pay for the overseas car. Will not matter a thing if you buy Proton. Its local, so foreign exchange means nothing. A stronger RM will allow Proton to source parts at a cheaper price based on exchange rates. Higher RM value=cheaper BMW. Recently, Japan devalued its Yen because its car, even PS3/Nintendo cost too much to make in Japan for it to make a profit overseas. This was allowed by the G8 which Japan was in. Japan purposely devalued its currency in order to make its exports more attractive. If not, it cannot compete with Koreans/China. What does this mean to the Jap people, they noticed that in order to stay competitive, take a currency hit. So making currency worth less, means they need more Yen to import that BMW. Also, the cost of daily goods goes up, if its imported.
So before you hentam the gomen, say UK cheap cars. UK people are paying the price for free trade. The rich people in UK are not affected. Even middle class, slightly affected. Those poor people in UK are worse hit. Oh, about that 70% tax thing. That is just a method used to balanced the prices. Rakyat dok complain memanjang, nanti gomen buat like UK terus ada yang kecut perut. Put GST, let petrol prices be determined by market value. Soon, you will need insurance to enter hospital in Malaysia. Malaysia has one of the best healthcare in the world. Go google UN report. In 2015, there will be no places for Doctors. No automatic places. Need to take test. We have reached developed world status on Doctor:population ratio.
The well off will be ok. The middle class will become the just above poverty level, and those worse off will be merempat if the gomen totally lepas tangan like UK/US. Not subsidising eggs, flour, oil, and essential foods.
This is not my view. This is the world economy.
This post has been edited by mystvearn: May 8 2013, 11:48 AM
Car price reduction, what can we expect?
May 8 2013, 12:41 AM
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