Nice debate, but no one can predict what is going next. Maybe after few months, we will know who is pro and who is "pro". Personal point of view , currently issues about unable to afford a house, highly believe that blr rate will stagnant or decrease only and only increase the resell profit tax or etc. if not, how developer cari makan, how banks cari makan and how gov comfort everyone? . Renting, well, if supply more than demand, might lost some rental due to competition and the beneficial ones still the owner and the poor ppl like me

If BNM thinks its healthy debt levels why have to monitor closely? The remark already gave itself away... Lol!!!

Indeed many predictions already done since 2008.
"....soon" - when?
"Will crash..." - when?

2008/2009 subprime
2010 - Budget - LTV 70%
2011 - Budget - RPGT 10%/5%
2012 - Budget - RPGT 15%/10%
BTS proposal
PIGS Crisis
Loan approved based on nett income
GE13

Many hv details analysis on how the above will lead to property correction / crash, but after the incident happen, these people silent, dun bother to analyse why the mkt did not react positively. Sigh..

Indeed many predictions already done since 2008.
"....soon" - when?
"Will crash..." - when?

2008/2009 subprime
2010 - Budget - LTV 70%
2011 - Budget - RPGT 10%/5%
2012 - Budget - RPGT 15%/10%
BTS proposal
PIGS Crisis
Loan approved based on nett income
GE13

Many hv details analysis on how the above will lead to property correction / crash, but after the incident happen, these people silent, dun bother to analyse why the mkt did not react positively. Sigh..

bcoz they are looking at the wrong things.

my 'preferred' indicators are very simple. 1) debts level and 2) broad money growth. When 1) reach saturation and 2) slow for few quarters straight, the end game is near.

What is now?
1) Congrat, household debts level breached 80% in Dec 2012! (Bafia & Dafia but ex. private loan/unlicensed/ah along)
2) money growth continue to slow for over 2Q now.

We are near. But there will be a time lag before the price really response. 

No body will know the date to be fair. Even Soro can't predict the date when Bath could go down, but he knew the maturity of short term obligation and the size of it. When it happened, he just ride on it.

Really silly when see ppl tirelessly ask something like when the market (they also love to probe people by giving a date) will go down or up and worst off, quantify the intensity of the up/fall like 10% or -20%. Normally they feel himself 'good' when the other don't answer him. But he never know he was the one asking naive question.

Indeed many predictions already done since 2008.
"....soon" - when?
"Will crash..." - when?

2008/2009 subprime
2010 - Budget - LTV 70%
2011 - Budget - RPGT 10%/5%
2012 - Budget - RPGT 15%/10%
BTS proposal
PIGS Crisis
Loan approved based on nett income
GE13

Many hv details analysis on how the above will lead to property correction / crash, but after the incident happen, these people silent, dun bother to analyse why the mkt did not react positively. Sigh..

Indeed many predictions already done since 2008.
"....soon" - when?
"Will crash..." - when?

2008/2009 subprime
2010 - Budget - LTV 70%
2011 - Budget - RPGT 10%/5%
2012 - Budget - RPGT 15%/10%
BTS proposal
PIGS Crisis
Loan approved based on nett income
GE13

Many hv details analysis on how the above will lead to property correction / crash, but after the incident happen, these people silent, dun bother to analyse why the mkt did not react positively. Sigh..

Lol!!! I guess that for those who fear/ think that prices will continue to rise forever please go buy now... Lol... What better way to expedite the bubble bursting then to make it even bigger... Faster buy... Hehe...

  Simply you don't understand the fundamentals of market. Where is your 20% growth yoy perpetually? Inflation can only push up housing prices? Where is the next greater fool to buy those empty and newly built units? Do you conveniently ignore the negative price growth stats? Don't worry, we will put your "strong holding power" theory to the test.

Ya agree, you understand the fundamental, pessimistic guy. Keep on yr research, pls come to Puchong more, dun forget to check the Qaseh sale, big discount for you by I&P, only for you.
P/s : I hv waiting for mths to get yr clarification, if you choose to ignore it, I rest my case and I forgive you.

My advice to you, a single trip to a place won't make you an expert, I stay in Puchong for 15 yrs and I dare not to claim to know Puchong well, and you talk like an expert, you are Good.

Household debt vs GDP reached 80% This is totally insane.
BNM would be in dilemma.

You're absolutely 110% spot-on 

They're in such a huge dilemma that they don't have the slightest idea on what to do... the only option to them is to 'closely monitor'... LoL!!! That's the severity of the situation.

You're absolutely 110% spot-on 

They're in such a huge dilemma that they don't have the slightest idea on what to do... the only option to them is to 'closely monitor'... LoL!!! That's the severity of the situation.

if they further strict lendings, they might afraid that our economy might head into recession as the global economy outlook seems not promising. If they maintain low interest rates, inflation might shoot up especially the property price.

I would suggest on restricting the loans. Shoot up the interest rates before it crashes further in the future. Just my 2 cents..

currently the GDP are mainly depend on construction (debt) while export still lagging, would they willing to further restrict the loan, the growth will drop sharply overnight if they do that.

exactly that's the dilemma. The main point for cheap loans, is to further improve GDP. But somehow it failed. Our household debt vs GDP is not improving. So, what if the % reaches 100-110%? Commercial banks will soon have problems. That's bubble.

bank will increase the rate lo if reach there.

Territorial land is the essence and foundation of a nation. In Singapore, the wisdom of using retirement savings to fund home ownership, including in subsidised public sector housing, has been premised on the assumption of constant asset appreciation. Large-scale immigration contributes to asset appreciation, and thus to the profits of REITS and both private and government-linked property developers.

But asset appreciations based on increased land scarcity are essentially rents that transfer income from buyers to sellers, thus contributing also to rising inequality.
From a long-term growth perspective, they distort incentives to work, save and invest in value-creating activities in favor of rentier wealth or income from property “investments” (or speculation).

Asset inflation also hurts growth by raising the cost of doing business and discouraging entrepreneurship especially by SMEs and local businesses which cannot afford to compete with global multinationals for commercial and retail space.

We should not forget that a major factor in the downfall of the medieval Italian city-state of Venice was the diversion of entrepreneurial capital and energy into property as the small land-area drove rising rentals and land prices, leaving the city with beautiful buildings that today are but a shell for visiting spectators to admire.