what's happening in Cyprus is scary to whole E.U. Not a good sign to the world economy and could be contagious.

Subsale market is at least 2x of primary market (by 2012 total sale). It translates to over 65% of the market share.

No matter how well the new launches may portray, it is less than 40% of the total market.

A slowdown of the subsale is a big enough signal to be more cautious. To no avail drilling on the ox horn point.

bingo!

the moment S&P concluded, developers taichi-ed to buyer and lenders.

almost any property owner who bough his before 2008, is almost certain to make handsome profits selling it anytime from 2010 till now. No knowledge is needed. NONE. Even idiot can do it as long as he knows how to sign.

That's the best bubble sign.

Appreciate your compliment. One thing I learn the hard way from the 3 years writing blog is that most readers like to ridicule honest analysis

What I have seen happened with family in 82' and 97' really a nightmare that I vow never to see it from my home.

Been in this industry since early 2000 and consider myself not lazy spending spare time to learn finance and economics. All I can tell is assets class opportunity is always moving from one to another from time to time. Real estate in Malaysia is near its end at least for mid term.

Thus, I sold most last year and urging close friends and family to realize profit first. I walk my talk. Always believe paper 'profit' is just a mirage. It is like masturbation, period.

Appreciate your compliment. One thing I learn the hard way from the 3 years writing blog is that most readers like to ridicule honest analysis

What I have seen happened with family in 82' and 97' really a nightmare that I vow never to see it from my home.

Been in this industry since early 2000 and consider myself not lazy spending spare time to learn finance and economics. All I can tell is assets class opportunity is always moving from one to another from time to time. Real estate in Malaysia is near its end at least for mid term.

Thus, I sold most last year and urging close friends and family to realize profit first. I walk my talk. Always believe paper 'profit' is just a mirage. It is like masturbation, period.

yeah, real thing is the best.

the blog was closed in Dec 2012.

Will share some analysis here when Napic Q4 '12 data is out to public, I think around mid Apr. But, by looking at BNM Jan 2013 stats, there may not have much changes (total country), stagnant market at best.

no country ever so far can escape this. After 08 burst, only US can push super low rate thanks to the reserve currency status and super power privilege...

yeah, just finished reading the report. The household debts issue is the opening chapter of the whole report. hahaha

bcoz they are looking at the wrong things.

my 'preferred' indicators are very simple. 1) debts level and 2) broad money growth. When 1) reach saturation and 2) slow for few quarters straight, the end game is near.

What is now?
1) Congrat, household debts level breached 80% in Dec 2012! (Bafia & Dafia but ex. private loan/unlicensed/ah along)
2) money growth continue to slow for over 2Q now.

We are near. But there will be a time lag before the price really response.

No body will know the date to be fair. Even Soro can't predict the date when Bath could go down, but he knew the maturity of short term obligation and the size of it. When it happened, he just ride on it.

Really silly when see ppl tirelessly ask something like when the market (they also love to probe people by giving a date) will go down or up and worst off, quantify the intensity of the up/fall like 10% or -20%. Normally they feel himself 'good' when the other don't answer him. But he never know he was the one asking naive question.

Perhaps Governor Zeti has this chart too.

this is new chart. It use 1988 as it was the peak of Japan assets bubble. You seem not knowing much about it.

if look carefully, this is really a big big serious problem.

our current property price is hugely in jeopardy once the credit expansion is slowed (I am not even dare to think if it turns negative). Because the boom we enjoy thus far is too much dependent on the massive credit growth especially 2009-2010.

Personally been monitor it since the announce of stimulus Package 1 by Abdullah. There is no improvement at all I should say, on curbing the assets price escalation (ironically, that's the goal) and the pop is very real. What the policy makers done so far like LTR limit or RPGT is kacang putih. When I read the BNM report days ago, saying the sharp property price hike recent years was caused by macro economics factors and stresses not by monetary policy. That's exactly why I feel quite hopeless because they are in denial modE still!!

Honestly, BNM is not only in dilemma (betting on credit growth to dodge financial aftermath from US crisis) but also has little choice left apart from praying everything is all right in E.U, US and China as our debts is high relatively to our smaller per capita GDP.

** Why credit expansion slow is deadly to property?
Because we need credit (in ever bigger dose) to continue the asset appreciation to carry on the boom. Imagine when the supply (the very bulk in fact) is put into the market in 2013 - 2015 amid of credit slow? It simply translates to lesser able buyer in the market which surely create supply glut that find too few buyers. Any antidote? Yes, unless we can find substitute fast enough like large foreigner buyers to fill the gap, else, what else we can think off? I don't know honestly. Be ready and prepared. Those with millions of liquid assets will be always safe **

obviously you're not familiar.

here is the chart of all debts combine: coprporate, public and household. pls google first and understand the terms before barking!

the largest part of the debts is from corporate sector which is very prone/sensitive to economy.

it is always a gray area and blur line between private funding (major 'privatized' public works like LCCT2, MRT, Iskandar, whatever corridors....) vs. normal public funding.

chart below is almost 3 years old, and the figure for Malaysia has surely making another new milestone. Cannot resist to say it again here, Malaysia betul betul boleh!

Just to add some points:

The personal debts chart may not included those outside BNM jurisdiction, namely Bafia 1989 and Dfia. So, debts that is off the radar could be much more i.e PTPTN, private loan, unlicensed loan, koperasi loan and etc. So, the figure posted may possibility under reported.

What has triggered the nerve is the recent growth in personal financing that BNM has little power to control, only until the effective implementation of new FSA soon (to control non bank household lending), maybe by the year end. Just to ponder, the avg loan taken last year alone is an increase of over 60%!! The loan takers were mainly youngster aged below 25 with below RM3k income. This is a non collateralize loan and ...... you know how high the risk la.

I believe the overly dependent of Malaysia economy to consumption (new office, house, malls, cars and other households goods) for the past decade and a half (with the lacking focus of improvement real production capacity) is key the current lukewarm employment & job opportunity/development that impairs our labor market salary expansion which couldn't match the GDP growth that is fueled half by consumption . In order to maintain good lifestyle, average people has to borrow from the future (loan and credits). Who wants to take pain to face reality??

the development is quite staggering, IMO.......

Home mortgage loan is fallen into household debts or in other words, private consumption though it's collateralize with real assets. It depends how you look at it. For me, I tend to agree with the official definition as real estate, unlike business/industrial loan, will not increase the overall productivity for a nation. Case in point is US which is a typical example and Germany is the other side of the coin.

Agree. Me also didn't care much about that data. But this is a road that we have not taken before. This alone enough to get my attention.

Yes, many economy data is not reliable but which one? At least there's no incentive to report thing like debts figure.

As a hobby in economics, I never trust GDP, CPI and any kind of forecast. But I do look into things like power consumption, debts, bond yield, trade data, ....... This info is not easy to manipulate as there is always a counter part available to cross check.

I need such info in timely manner as it help me in my investment other than property..... a lot of them I have to buy in from my own pocket....

A coincidence story to share.

just chat with 2 different clients today as they still have some properties to off loading. Their props have been in the market for quite a while, I would categorized them as mansions due to the massive built up.

We shared our amazement about the boom property market recently that provide a once in a life time opportunity (we though so) to make tremendous profits selling at today's market (both of them over 50, most props bough min 6, 7 yrs ago). They are not DDD type (never indicate or say so) but I know for sure they sell more than buying recently. At the end of the conversation, both gentlemen felt owing his gratitude to the optimistic market that without it, they aware will never able to make such a handsome and easy profits which according to them, far greater than operating their own business (in percentage wise) minus headache and sleepless nights.

** both clients are already "on the shore" (not from property la), to be fair of sharing the stories. This is not a rare occasion, I meet quite a number of such seasoned businessman and investors with similar attitude to the current markets. No intention to prove who's right who's wrong, just to share as I find it quite amazing myself **

sure or not?