QUOTE(AVFAN @ May 24 2013, 02:24 PM)
the individual spats aside, here's another warning to the debt problem in boland.
prices keep rising, keep borrowing, no problem...?
Malaysia’s ruling Barisan Nasional (national front) coalition that was returned to power in this month’s election
faces some serious economic problems, notably the country’s poor export performance.
Exports have shrunk in the last two months in response to weakening global demand that has also hit other Asian exporters. But unlike its rivals, Malaysia faces a more deep-rooted export challenge – a serious decline in the export role of its manufacturers that has been partly masked by increases in commodity exports. Chart of the week takes a look.
Malaysia exports dropped by an annual rate of 0.8 per cent and 0.9 per cent in the 12-months to February and March, after 33 months of uninterrupted growth. Exports of machinery and transport equipment contracted by 2.1 per cent in the 12 months to March compared to same period the previous year, while the exports of mineral fuels expanded by over 10 per cent.
Source: FT data
The value of mineral fuels exports is about double what it was in 2007; it now accounts for over 20 per cent of all exports, up from 13 per cent in 2007 and just 6 per cent at the beginning of last decade.
It’s not just the boost of strong oil prices boosting export values: Malaysian gas exports expanded 10 per cent in the 12 months to December last year in volume terms.
Meanwhile, exports of machinery and transport equipment are down 14 per cent on 2007. The share of machineries and transport equipment in total exports has plunged from a peak of 63 per cent at the start of the last decade to 38 per cent in March.
The declining importance of machinery in Malaysia’s exports could hamper the nation’s ability to increase output per head, graduate to the ranks higher-income countries, and so escape the so-called “middle income trap”
According to the Asia Development Bank, countries get stuck in the middle-income trap when they fail to make the leap
from the exploitation of cheap labour and natural resources to producing and exporting more technologically advanced products, and developing innovation.
In some other resources-rich states, a recent rise oin the primary commodities’ share of exports in the last decade, has mostly been driven by Chinese demand. Brazil is a good example.
So are some African countries
.
But China is not the main reason for the shift in Malaysia.
Indeed, the total value of Malaysian machinery exports to China has almost doubled since 2009, and China is now Malaysia’s number one market for manufactured products, followed by Singapore and the US. This change is very significant given that in 2007, Malaysia’s machinery exports to China were only one third as big as its machinery exports to the US.
The 2008 global crisis was a watershed. Malaysia’s total exports to the US – the country’s largest market until the end of 2007 – dropped by more than half from their peak in August 2006 to their low in February 2009 and they never fully recovered. As about 60 per cent of Malaysia exports to the US are composed of machinery, the effects hit the whole manufacturing sector.
Meanwhile, the main customer for Malaysia’s growing mineral fuel exports is not China but Japan.
Japan was looking to diversify sources of energy
, to reduce its dependence on the Middle East.
The process was of seeking out new energy suppliers accelerated after the Fukushima nuclear disaster which encouraged Tokyo to import more liquefied natural gas mostly from south east Asia.
As a result, Malaysia was, after Russia, the fastest-growing of Japan’s top 10 mineral fuel suppliers between 2007 and the 12 months to March this year. Over that time Malaysia became the 8th largest supplier of mineral fuels to Japan, up from 11thposition.
Some countries modernise and reach high-income levels by boosting services, including the export of services, as both Singapore and Hong Kong have done.
But Malaysia’s weakness in manufacturing exports is not offset by strength in services. A recent World Bank paper – “How to Avoid Middle Income Traps?
Evidence from Malaysia” – says a “structural transformation to modernize service trade could pave the way for Malaysia to become a developed country.”
But it warns: “While other developing countries are reaping the benefits of globalization of services, Malaysia has yet to take advantage of this phenomenon.”
Thne incoming government has plenty to think about.
Copy from www.ft.com
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This post has been edited by tikaram: May 25 2013, 11:15 AM