QUOTE(aeiou228 @ Jan 13 2012, 01:02 PM)
I also want to OT abit.
Here is something more realistic, put rm5000 and get rm124 return every month. More then 30% p.a. effectively. Datuk seri Najib guarantee one. SARA 1Malaysia.
Speaking of that SARA 1Malaysia... let's discuss it further.
Many people are skeptical about it, but I disagree with views on the internet that it is nothing but a scam to raise 500 mil in funds for the administration... one article even claims the return of RM 134 a month is really low for the investment, which doesn't seem right to me.
From what I read, you invest RM 5000 and you get RM 134 for 60 consecutive months (net monthly "dividend" is RM 50 if a loan is taken). Sources also claim the redeemable value upon maturity is RM 13000 (or RM 8000 to 10000 if a loan is taken, but I'm not sure), if the dividends are reinvested rather than kept. Already the monthly dividends scheme seems too good to be true, but at least that has been reported in various sources... the RM 13000 maturity part is the one I am highly skeptical about.
Putting aside all notions of borrowing via the loan scheme on offer, let's review the possible scenarios:
1. You treat it like an ordinary annuity. Interest rates are about 3% pa now, are they not? And that can be assumed to be risk free. So let's assume a required rate of return of 5% pa (I know MGS maturing Sep 2016 coupons are around 4.2% but this is just for argument's sake). That gives a present value of about RM 7120, which means this investment is worth RM 2120. It is worth even more if I use a lower required rate of return of 4.5% pa (RM 2204). That's about 44.1% of the invested sum in present terms, but not the >30% pa you've described.
2. You redeem RM 13000 upon maturity, treating it like a 5 year term deposit. I can't say my calculations are 100% correct, but to me this represents 21.1% pa, which is very high but not quite the >30% pa you've described. I'd be interested to know how you got that. At 30% pa I would expect to receive about RM 18565 at the end, given monthly compounding (because the scheme only talks about reinvesting the monthly dividends, but does not specify how this will be managed, e.g. by monthly injections, and all payments are fixed, so we assume simplicity).
I won't bother with Internal Rate of Return or Payback Period, because I prefer NPV and this is just to demonstrate to some skeptics that the investment has value and is not purely a "scam". To people who yell "scam" at this without some proper consideration: everything is relative... the work that traders, investment banks, and retail banks do is to maximise profit, just like any rational company, but at the same time they also contribute a lot to soeciety/the economy via financial intermediation, so you can see their actions as evil or selfish, or just the ordinary running of a (vital) business like profit-mining pharmaceuticals, medical practices, or governments, which have to cater to the public. Separate corruption from profit-maximisation.
This post has been edited by LightningFist: Jan 14 2012, 07:06 PM