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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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danmooncake
post Apr 7 2012, 07:13 PM

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QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Apr 7 2012, 01:18 PM)
You have no numbers to justify and you say BAC will shoot up to $15 for no reason?? Do you know what is the EPS for BAC? I have no problem if you have a different view, but how do you justify this?

What is the problem to be obsessed with a SINGLE COUNTER? If you know this company inside out, you will be better off investing in a single company as you know when to take profit and when there is still potential upside. Unless you have a billion dollar then diversification will work for you.

Warren Buffett made most of his money from just a few companies, in fact a few trades. He is a strong proponent of a concentrate portfolio. Taking one of his quotation "Diversification is protection against ignorance". His right hand man, CHarlie Munger said “Wide diversification, which necessarily includes investment in mediocre businesses, only guarantees ordinary results”

If you are so afraid and want to diversify your portfolio, you might as well invest in an index fund to ensure you get exactly the same return on the index. That will be the same as investing in all the counters! Good diversification strategy?

I will be glad to invest in a company that has a high% of institutional holding, in fact this is one of my investment criteria as it will provide support for the stock price. If the share price is being pushed up due to the fundamental of the stock, strong future earnings and low PE ratio, I do not see a problem. In fact I would be happy seeing the stock price rising.
*
PinkDevil - To each its own.. Zamans just offering his view. Nothing personal. Anyway, I'm glad you like AAPL. I'm a long time holder of AAPL too. Make me a lot of dough. Love the company, love the products.. but also like the stock performance but it is just a piece of paper. Z is correct. lots of funds are pumping this.. but they're hedging it with lot of other things.

All it takes is just one bad quarter.. you'll see this delicious Apple will begin to fall, just like any other company. Enjoy the ride while you can.. and don't forget lock in your some of profits. wink.gif

Just a heads up guys, I'm out of all my net long trading position for the next few weeks..

Something is brewing up in the bear camp.... laugh.gif
zamans98
post Apr 7 2012, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Apr 7 2012, 01:18 PM)
You have no numbers to justify and you say BAC will shoot up to $15 for no reason?? Do you know what is the EPS for BAC? I have no problem if you have a different view, but how do you justify this?

What is the problem to be obsessed with a SINGLE COUNTER? If you know this company inside out, you will be better off investing in a single company as you know when to take profit and when there is still potential upside. Unless you have a billion dollar then diversification will work for you.

Warren Buffett made most of his money from just a few companies, in fact a few trades. He is a strong proponent of a concentrate portfolio. Taking one of his quotation "Diversification is protection against ignorance". His right hand man, CHarlie Munger said “Wide diversification, which necessarily includes investment in mediocre businesses, only guarantees ordinary results”

If you are so afraid and want to diversify your portfolio, you might as well invest in an index fund to ensure you get exactly the same return on the index. That will be the same as investing in all the counters! Good diversification strategy?

I will be glad to invest in a company that has a high% of institutional holding, in fact this is one of my investment criteria as it will provide support for the stock price. If the share price is being pushed up due to the fundamental of the stock, strong future earnings and low PE ratio, I do not see a problem. In fact I would be happy seeing the stock price rising.
*
again, as I said, don't be obsessed. Nobody can emulate the success of W.Buffet. Many tried, none come close.
Again, NOBODY.

Everyone have different view, target/aim of an investment.

I don't care or dont give a sh|t about EPS. PE (reason - look at China's based company) .For me as long a particular counter is able to generate profit for me, I will hop on.
If bears a negative result, i will dump and move on.

that's me. Perhaps you got some few hundred thousand US$, I got small fund.

I think you are still young, by the way of writing. Its good mix for the thread.

Err - I don't play INDEX, i do trade ETF. So I take much for you to explore smile.gif


Myoswee
post Apr 8 2012, 08:00 PM

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I also still young in this thread

I'm returning to bear camp this week

ROAR

smile.gif

learn2earn8
post Apr 8 2012, 11:56 PM

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my bull view remains the same, coz if co can't beat the 3.2% analyst expected growth, then its doh.gif
furthermore, with the pro-business republican mitt romney expected to win nomination & knock out obama in nov2012
and zero chance of war with iran, what other bears could lurk around the camp hmm.gif
oh well, best of luck to all gamblers at both bull & bear side & HUAT AH!

pinkdevil88 some points u brought up is valid and it seems u hav got some idea on what makes a share moves smile.gif
well then, betting so much on call options when the market is at new high is a bit on the risky side wink.gif
if its monies u r willing to lose, then its no problemo biggrin.gif
do post other shares in your watchlist here to make this thread lively cool2.gif its good to giv ur guidance on buy, hold & sell view

Attached Image

Q1 S&P 500 Profits Seen Up Just 3.2%, Or 1.8% Ex Apple
Commodity costs pinch margins, but Wall Street upbeat on rest of 2012
Slow international growth and stubbornly high commodity prices are expected to keep a lid on corporate earnings growth for a second straight quarter. Analysts now see 3.2% Q1 profit growth from S&P 500 firms, according toThomson Reuters data.

That’s down from 5.5% on Jan. 1 and hopes for 12.8% six months before that. Exclude Apple AAPL, and profit may rise just 1.8%. “The bar for Q1 is set pretty low,” said Jeremy Zirin, UBS Wealth Management’s chief equity strategist. Ongoing sluggishness in Europe and a lower growth target in
China are pressuring margins for global industrial and materials companies, Zirin says.

There were still some easier comparisons last year, Lawrence Creatura, a portfolio manager at Federated Investors, said. “That’s not the case this year, and earnings growth is going to be tough to come by,” he said. Q4 earnings rose 9.2%, the first single-digit rate in two years, and
the lowest since corporate America vaulted out of the recession.

Without Apple — which more than doubled its massive profit—earnings growth was just 6.2%. Overall, S&P 500 technology companies are expected to report 6.3% earnings growth, one of just two sectors that have seen Q1 forecasts raised from Jan. 1, according to Thomson Reuters. Backing out Apple, which reports April 24, the tech earnings estimate is for a 1.6% decline. That’s overly pessimistic, Zirin says, given the rapid adoption of
smartphones, tablets and cloud computing, and nearly insatiable hunger for more bandwidth.

S&P 500 industrials earnings likely rose 10.6%, with consumer discretionary firms up 6.6%. About 5% of the S&P 500 have already posted Q1 results, but the unofficial season opener comes Tuesday with aluminum giant Alcoa AA. Internet search giant Google GOOG reports Thursday.
A slew of financials follow, with JPMorgan Chase JPM and Wells Fargo WFC out next Friday, Citigroup C reporting April 16 and Bank of America BAC April 19. Analysts expect 6.5% earnings growth from the financial sector, down from 7.3% on Jan. 1.

Financials and consumer discretionary stocks likely did well in Q1, Zirin says, thanks to some modestly positive U.S. job gains and housing market recovery. Analysts typically start with high hopes, only to lower expectations as results near. Q1 views came down more than usual, says Greg Harrison, a corporate earnings research analyst with ThomsonReuters.

Companies too will lower the bar, allowing them to post upside surprises. But a below-average 62% of S&P500 firms beat in Q4. “Costs are going up for a lot of companies, as far as commodities and other inputs go, so that’s putting the squeeze on earnings growth,” said Harrison. Earnings growth is expected to pick up later this year in part on hopes of easing commodity costs.

Company guidance could quash that enthusiasm. “Forward-looking guidance has been fairly cautious,” Zirin said. “That will likely be a continuing
theme.” But results so far give some reason for optimism, Harrison says. About 75% have beaten analysts’ modest expectations. Early reports
usually set the tone for the rest of the season, he says.

QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Apr 7 2012, 01:18 PM)
You have no numbers to justify and you say BAC will shoot up to $15 for no reason?? Do you know what is the EPS for BAC? I have no problem if you have a different view, but how do you justify this?

What is the problem to be obsessed with a SINGLE COUNTER? If you know this company inside out, you will be better off investing in a single company as you know when to take profit and when there is still potential upside. Unless you have a billion dollar then diversification will work for you.

Warren Buffett made most of his money from just a few companies, in fact a few trades. He is a strong proponent of a concentrate portfolio. Taking one of his quotation "Diversification is protection against ignorance". His right hand man, CHarlie Munger said “Wide diversification, which necessarily includes investment in mediocre businesses, only guarantees ordinary results”

If you are so afraid and want to diversify your portfolio, you might as well invest in an index fund to ensure you get exactly the same return on the index. That will be the same as investing in all the counters! Good diversification strategy?

I will be glad to invest in a company that has a high% of institutional holding, in fact this is one of my investment criteria as it will provide support for the stock price. If the share price is being pushed up due to the fundamental of the stock, strong future earnings and low PE ratio, I do not see a problem. In fact I would be happy seeing the stock price rising.
*
zamans98
post Apr 9 2012, 08:57 AM

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Earning season is here.

Let's see if those mega market cap stock can deliver.


Added on April 9, 2012, 9:01 amSyukran, sold @ opening = RM0.880

This post has been edited by zamans98: Apr 9 2012, 09:01 AM
danmooncake
post Apr 9 2012, 09:39 PM

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Short first.. before going long.. tongue.gif

So, imo. Bears must take control for the next 2 weeks otherwise bulls will rampage again.

I would like to see -800~-1000 pts down!!!! At least to Dow 12000 Yeah!! or -100 pts for SP500 (1275-1280). brows.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Apr 9 2012, 09:39 PM
SUSapple1188
post Apr 9 2012, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 9 2012, 09:39 PM)
Short first.. before going long..  tongue.gif

So, imo. Bears must take control for the next 2 weeks otherwise bulls will rampage again.

I would like to see -800~-1000 pts down!!!! At least to Dow 12000 Yeah!! or -100 pts for SP500 (1275-1280).  brows.gif
*
pro analysis. your analysis is exactly same as mine cheers.gif
learn2earn8
post Apr 10 2012, 12:41 AM

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aisay, tis ue numbers create 'buy the dip' situation thumbup.gif
cum on bulls, u can do it, maintain the support at 12900 & squeeze those bears balls cool2.gif
do not give them their 12k laugh.gif
BUY BUY BUY tongue.gif
river.sand
post Apr 10 2012, 09:44 AM

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Some of you have been debating about Apple. I found this piece of new...

BITG Research's Walter Piecyk cut his rating of AAPL stock from "buy" to "neutral" in a note to investors on Monday, saying that telecoms are growing weary of paying high subsidies for the iPhone with returns that don't match Apple's high margins from the handset.

Analyst cuts AAPL rating on iPhone subsidy backlash


mikehwy
post Apr 11 2012, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 9 2012, 09:39 PM)
Short first.. before going long..  tongue.gif

So, imo. Bears must take control for the next 2 weeks otherwise bulls will rampage again.

I would like to see -800~-1000 pts down!!!! At least to Dow 12000 Yeah!! or -100 pts for SP500 (1275-1280).  brows.gif
*
Bro, if this is true many would have their pants downliao. maybe 12900 it the bottom line le.
SUSapple1188
post Apr 11 2012, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Apr 11 2012, 03:44 PM)
Bro, if this is true many would have their pants downliao. maybe 12900 it the bottom line le.
*
We shall see DJ heading below 12000 soon. Trust me smile.gif
zamans98
post Apr 11 2012, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Apr 10 2012, 09:44 AM)
Some of you have been debating about Apple. I found this piece of new...

BITG Research's Walter Piecyk cut his rating of AAPL stock from "buy" to "neutral" in a note to investors on Monday, saying that telecoms are growing weary of paying high subsidies for the iPhone with returns that don't match Apple's high margins from the handset.

Analyst cuts AAPL rating on iPhone subsidy backlash
*
nice one... Apple up too fast too soon.
there is no new gadget in the pipeline. What they did since iPhone 2/3 or iPad 1/2 is nothing extra ordinary.

Apple now pushing for Apple TV (AirPlay).

learn2earn8
post Apr 12 2012, 03:09 AM

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the race is on, will dog jones go to 14k or 12k brows.gif as per all bull journey, minor hiccups r normal to shakeout weakholders
wil the bull eat 'medium rare' bear steak along with cake as appetizer & apple as dessert hmm.gif
I m not a super short term trader, I do not short today nor buy back 1 minit later nor tomorrow & vice versa laugh.gif
if forward earnings r really horrendously bad, then I may consider camping with bears shakehead.gif
kueyteowlou
post Apr 13 2012, 07:58 AM

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I saw the news from CNBC today early morning at astro...

Alot of Analyst reduce their TP for APPL from 750USD to 700USD...

so it means APPL should be in bear mode very soon....

p/s: I got no experience on US stock market.. just want to read and learn something only... hehe
prophetjul
post Apr 13 2012, 08:52 AM

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Allo.........its ELECTION year........
Myoswee
post Apr 13 2012, 09:02 AM

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Last week - No QE -----> drop like flies

Yesterday - 'Maybe' got QE ------> rally like dog

Who needs Fundamental and Technical Analysis doh.gif doh.gif

Those FED people making me mad.gif mad.gif vmad.gif vmad.gif

This post has been edited by Myoswee: Apr 13 2012, 09:04 AM
SUSapple1188
post Apr 13 2012, 09:04 AM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Apr 13 2012, 09:02 AM)
Last week - No QE -----> drop like flies

Yesterday - 'Maybe' got QE ------> rally like dog

Who needs Fundamental and Technical Analysis  doh.gif  doh.gif

Those FED people making me  mad.gif  mad.gif  vmad.gif  vmad.gif
*
Maybe thats the highest it can go before it say final kiss goodbye for DJ
zamans98
post Apr 13 2012, 10:48 AM

oquıɐɹ ǝɥ ɹǝo 'ǝɹǝɥǝɯos
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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Apr 13 2012, 09:02 AM)
Last week - No QE -----> drop like flies

Yesterday - 'Maybe' got QE ------> rally like dog

Who needs Fundamental and Technical Analysis  doh.gif  doh.gif

Those FED people making me  mad.gif  mad.gif  vmad.gif  vmad.gif
*
I feel you. Yesterday entered BAC and ride on YOKU again. smile.gif

SUSapple1188
post Apr 13 2012, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(apple1188 @ Apr 13 2012, 09:04 AM)
Maybe thats the highest it can go before it say final kiss goodbye for DJ
*
As expected , DJ is sliding and may tumble on today rclxms.gif
berry123
post Apr 13 2012, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(apple1188 @ Apr 13 2012, 10:17 PM)
As expected , DJ is sliding and may tumble on today  rclxms.gif
*
time to buy APPL?



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