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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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learn2earn8
post Mar 23 2012, 11:22 AM

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Sister, what the undervalue stocks in your watchlist biggrin.gif
dog jones yesterday dip below 13k, enter call options dia 11.60 to gamble up again flex.gif
Attached Image

I go for future growth/value, not past growth/value laugh.gif the 5 share gambling position still looking goodie
base on your blog, u would know wat is overhead resistance brows.gif
those undervalue stock will take a real loooooooooooooooooooooooooonnggg time to go above resistance shakehead.gif
http://macdailynews.com/2012/01/16/conserv...e-growth-story/
eg. Conservative analyst estimates are missing Apple’s incredible growth story

of coz dog jones will hav occasional dips here & there, but I expecting a bull run until year 2014 tongue.gif
http://seekingalpha.com/article/296865-201...ice-projections
The high of S&P projection is 1515

if u really want to short or prepare cash for deep downturn. watch year 2016, fed cumulatives inc int rate effect brows.gif
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-official...-224332893.html
Federal Open Market Committee expects rates to remain near zero until at least late 2014.

QUOTE(Kimmy1 @ Mar 23 2012, 08:53 AM)
Brother, I dont buy at this period... Last week, I was selling in stages and keep cash for next round... No one knows how deep is the incoming downturn, its around the corner... Be patient, and invest when its in the right time. =)

http://testmarketidea.blogspot.com


Added on March 23, 2012, 8:55 amFri: 23-03-2012 (Bearish lvl1) G@P -5.24 ▼ / PiT +71% ▼ News

Market is not ready to go in, unless you found undervalue stock which is price interest - go in small portion. Keep more cash to buy in the right time.

http://testmarketidea.blogspot.com
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mynewuser
post Mar 23 2012, 10:05 PM

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QUOTE(staind @ Mar 23 2012, 07:31 AM)
Talking about PSCF, I enter about the same time with you. Almost same amount of loss.
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How long required to recover? cry.gif
danmooncake
post Mar 24 2012, 12:01 AM

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Buy algorithm kicks in.. , I suspect end of the month rally by next week.


Added on March 24, 2012, 12:07 am
QUOTE(mynewuser @ Mar 23 2012, 10:05 PM)
How long required to recover? cry.gif
*
C has rallied over 70% from the lows of 21 since Oct.
IMO, it has recovered... tho not to the 52 weeks high yet.

But, if you've bought at 47.. why didn't you average down when it was
half the price back it was around 21-25 area? hmm.gif


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 24 2012, 12:07 AM
Myoswee
post Mar 24 2012, 10:18 AM

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When Anton Marinovich turned 18, his grandmother gave him $1,000 with strict instructions to invest in the stock market. He chose Apple Inc.

Seventeen years later, his investment is worth more than $240,000 and will bring him over $1,000 a quarter through the company's new dividend plan.

"It's pretty bananas," Marinovich said. "I always hear about all these people here in Silicon Valley falling into huge luck, but I never thought it would happen to me," said Marinovich, who is the director of sales at Equilar, a Redwood City, California-based executive compensation consultant.

Watching Apple shares soar more than 77 percent over the past 12 months has been a wild ride for people like Marinovich, who are firmly planted in the cult of Apple. Between him and his fiancee they own two iPhones, two MacBooks, an iPad and 400 shares of Apple.

Many loyalists bought stock years ago when shares languished at double-digit prices. The held on to it out of a love for the company and its products. Now, they are being richly rewarded by a share price of around $600 and a rich dividend payout from Apple's cash pile of nearly $100 billion.

Nearly two dozen individual Apple shareholders interviewed by Reuters say they are not going on crazy spending sprees or vacations to Fiji, despite the huge windfall they could get by cashing out. Practically none of them said they plan to sell, a loyalty that gives some of their financial planners heartburn.

That's not to say they aren't treating themselves - or breathing a little easier.

Marinovich said the comfort of his Apple investment cushion means more freedom in his spending habits. He recently bought himself a $2,000 Omega watch and is shopping for a new Audi to replace his Volkswagen Jetta.

Retiree Pat Harshbarger, 79, has seen her $13,800 investment in Apple rise to $46,000. That paper wealth has made the former nurse comfortable enough to consider taking a few more trips to Maine to visit family and one to Las Vegas, where she and her husband want to try their hand at the slot machines, she said.

Seventy-one years old Stan Merkin, a retired Dell and IBM programmer whose portfolio has gained about $100,000 just by buying Apple since late last year, said he will buy another 50 shares if the stock hits $650.

"What I have made in Apple gives me comfort about how I can live in retirement," he said.

Many loyal Apple shareholders see the stock as a "safety net" for their futures, one they believe only goes up.

"I am a firm believer in the company," said Marinovich's 31-year-old brother Erik Marinovich, who also bought 50 shares of Apple with money from his grandmother. The investment is now worth $60,000 more than he paid. "I am going to stay in this until retirement."

EMOTIONAL ATTACHMENT

For Apple lovers in their 30s and 40s - those who bore the brunt of both the dot-com crash and financial meltdown - holding Apple feels a responsible move.

Nate Landau, 38, lived at the edge of the dot-com boom and bust. He has worked at eight different companies, mostly in the technology sector, since 1996. He still remembers the night his father brought home Apple's first computer, when he was 10 years old.

"I just remember using Mac Paint and really being blown away," said Landau, who once insisted a new employer provide him with a Mac even though the rest of the company had PCs.

"I see Apple as my rainy day fund," said Landau, who is now managing director of Internet publisher Food Republic. His investment of $15,000 in Apple stock 12 years ago is now worth $60,000 even though he sold 200 of his 300 shares.

Kristi Faulkner recalls a similar experience when she saw her first Mac Classic in a high school art classroom in Grand Prairie, Texas.

"It had this little, tiny four by six screen and it was the coolest art tool I had ever seen," said Faulkner, who with her two daughters currently own two Mac desktops, three MacBooks, two iPhones and countless iPods, iTouches and nanos.

Faulkner, now 44, is president of Womenkind, a marketing agency that targets women. She still feels a strong connection to Apple - one that extends to her stock.

"Apple made computers accessible to me as a girl and as an artist," she said. "If it dives tomorrow, I am not selling."

That kind of emotional attachment makes financial advisers more than a little nervous.

When Faulkner signed up with a financial adviser a year ago, all of her savings was invested in Apple and Internet search giant Google.

"She told me to sell it and I said, 'are you kidding'," Faulkner said. She did trim back from 250 to 155 shares in Apple, but still made more than $82,500 off Apple since 2005.

Financial advisers regularly warn Apple groupies to get out of owning so much Apple - before they regret it.

"My broker is constantly calling me to tell me to sell it," said Jeff Gonzalez, a 31-year-old advertising director whose portfolio has gained more than $16,500 from the 31 shares of Apple he bought in 2005. "Every week I call him up and say 'Look you are wrong, it's gone up again'."

"Nothing is going to make me sell," Gonzalez said.

Even Apple lovers who are in the financial business have a hard time staying objective.

Matt Reiner, a 25-year-old financial adviser whose investment in 40 shares of Apple has gained about $11,000, knows he should get out while the going is good.

"I know there is so much euphoria around Apple, but it's very hard to sell a stock which seemingly has its products in everyone's hands," he said.
mynewuser
post Mar 26 2012, 07:13 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 24 2012, 12:01 AM)
Buy algorithm kicks in.. , I suspect end of the month rally by next week.


Added on March 24, 2012, 12:07 am

C has rallied over 70% from the lows of 21 since Oct.
IMO, it has recovered... tho not to the 52 weeks high yet.

But, if you've bought at 47.. why didn't you average down when it was
half the price back it was around 21-25 area?  hmm.gif
*
Bullet finish. cry.gif
Myoswee
post Mar 26 2012, 10:22 PM

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Gold spike

QE coming ? brows.gif brows.gif

SUSapple1188
post Mar 26 2012, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Mar 26 2012, 10:22 PM)
Gold spike

QE coming ?  brows.gif  brows.gif
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-26/u...ate-surges.html
danmooncake
post Mar 27 2012, 09:22 PM

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Futures green again.. bulls wanna to push this madness into April. Fund managers chasing stocks.
RyanTham
post Mar 27 2012, 09:48 PM

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would like to ask..what platform u guys using to trade US stock ya?
mynewuser
post Mar 28 2012, 06:46 AM

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sogotrade.


Added on March 28, 2012, 10:13 pmbtw when I see my china select fund. can vomit blood. keep drop since 2007. how to average down also don't know.

This post has been edited by mynewuser: Mar 28 2012, 10:13 PM
danmooncake
post Mar 29 2012, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(mynewuser @ Mar 28 2012, 06:46 AM)

Added on March 28, 2012, 10:13 pmbtw when I see my china select fund. can vomit blood. keep drop since 2007. how to average down also don't know.
*
Which China Select Fund? If it is the one tracking Shanghai Comp. Index.. sure die lah..
China is slowing...2 years going.. Shanghai Comp index being in Bear Market mode.
Good if we can short but can't short in China.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 29 2012, 09:21 AM
mynewuser
post Mar 29 2012, 08:57 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 29 2012, 09:17 AM)
Which China Select Fund? If it is the one tracking Shanghai Comp. Index.. sure die lah..
China is slowing...2 years going.. Shanghai Comp index being in Bear Market mode. 
Good if we can short but can't short in China.
*
Public china select fund.
danmooncake
post Mar 30 2012, 02:19 AM

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QUOTE(mynewuser @ Mar 29 2012, 08:57 PM)
Public china select fund.
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PCSF from Public Bank?
mynewuser
post Mar 30 2012, 06:49 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 30 2012, 02:19 AM)
PCSF from Public Bank?
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yes.
gark
post Mar 30 2012, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 29 2012, 09:17 AM)
Which China Select Fund? If it is the one tracking Shanghai Comp. Index.. sure die lah..
China is slowing...2 years going.. Shanghai Comp index being in Bear Market mode. 
Good if we can short but can't short in China.
*
You can actually... via FXP - UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China25 Proshares ETF.. biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Mar 30 2012, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 30 2012, 10:10 AM)
You can actually...  via FXP - UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China25 Proshares ETF..  biggrin.gif
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FXP - is actually 2x inverse of FXI.

A lot of people thought it is China.. but infact it isn't.
Mostly are shares listed at HKSE..

Just like the CIMB25..

FXI.. therefore performance actually follows Hang Seng index.

Again, you can't really short Shanghai Comp. Index directly.
ronn77
post Apr 3 2012, 12:26 PM

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Guys, is it time to dump China internet stocks? Seems rallied for past few weeks and my target is to minimise my losses so time to let go?
pinkdevil88
post Apr 4 2012, 01:31 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Mar 20 2012, 11:10 PM)
nobody knows.

why AAPL? Because it just shoot by 100 US$?
All depends on your risk appetite and total cash in hand.
Assume u got 10,000 $ in hand, u can get only 16 shares say at 600$
When Apple hit 615$, u earn 15x16 > $230 less charges etc.
Once economy starts booming, banking stocks are better bet.
Get Banking ETF ----> XLF or just plain banking stock like BAC

BAC 10$ x 1000 = 10,000$
Up by 20Cts, you make $0.20x1000 = 200$

BAC can even move back to $15, hence $5x1000 > $5000

AAPL has a strong earnings and it is still undervalued by earnings. Not to factor in the future growth rate. With Iphone 5 and Apple TV launching soon i can see the only way for this stock is up up up. Initially I have a modest target price of AAPL at $720 and I think if there is a nice bull run towards end of the year, there is a possibility of AAPL hitting four digit.

There is this mentality that we should buy cheap shares so that the % of return will be greater. How wrong is this. Say if i split AAPL shares 1 : 100 and it is now worth $6.72 Does it looks attractive to you? It should be the same. The Value of the company stays the same, it is just that the number of outstanding shares increased.

Speaking about BAC. I believe it is highly undervalued based on their assets as well. They are trading at a Price to book ratio of 0.48 and a price to tangible book value of 0.72 But does this stock warrant a buy? not at the current price as BAc is struggling with earnings. BAC will need to perform outstandingly if they were to hit the analyst estimate of EPS $0.69 per share. Given if they made it, multiply this with the industry average PE ratio of 10. You will only get $6.90 per share. This doesnt look a bargain at the current price. However I believe Moynihan is doing a good job up there and a turnaround plan is in place. It is going to take 4-5 years at least for BAC to get things back on tract. That is barring any economic crisis. Not to mention, BAC is very sensitive on the Euro Crisis, any negative news will send the share price down to $ 6 - 7 price range. However, if you are in for the long term(4 - 5 years), this could be a value buy.

I am long AAPL since $550 and I did miss part of the rally when I switch my entire portfolio to BAC when AAPL was at $585(The day the new Ipad was launched). Now I am back to AAPL and am betting big(6 digit figure in RM) on their options. Let us revisit this thread end of the year and see what happens.
zamans98
post Apr 6 2012, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Apr 4 2012, 01:31 AM)
AAPL has a strong earnings and it is still undervalued by earnings. Not to factor in the future growth rate. With Iphone 5 and Apple TV launching soon i can see the only way for this stock is up up up. Initially I have a modest target price of AAPL at $720 and I think if there is a nice bull run towards end of the year, there is a possibility of AAPL hitting four digit.

There is this mentality that we should buy cheap shares so that the % of return will be greater. How wrong is this. Say if i split AAPL shares 1 : 100 and it is now worth $6.72 Does it looks attractive to you? It should be the same. The Value of the company stays the same, it is just that the number of outstanding shares increased.

Speaking about BAC. I believe it is highly undervalued based on their assets as well. They are trading at a Price to book ratio of 0.48 and a price to tangible book value of 0.72 But does this stock warrant a buy? not at the current price as BAc is struggling with earnings. BAC will need to perform outstandingly if they were to hit the analyst estimate of EPS $0.69 per share. Given if they made it, multiply this with the industry average PE ratio of 10. You will only get $6.90 per share. This doesnt look a bargain at the current price. However I believe Moynihan is doing a good job up there and a turnaround plan is in place. It is going to take 4-5 years at least for BAC to get things back on tract. That is barring any economic crisis. Not to mention, BAC is very sensitive on the Euro Crisis, any negative news will send the share price down to $ 6 - 7 price range. However, if you are in for the long term(4 - 5 years), this could be a value buy.

I am long AAPL since $550 and I did miss part of the rally when I switch my entire portfolio to BAC when AAPL was at $585(The day the new Ipad was launched). Now I am back to AAPL and am betting big(6 digit figure in RM) on their options. Let us revisit this thread end of the year and see what happens.
*
Listen, let's make this simple than lengthy world of text.
Everyone have different view, and they are right from their point of view. Nobody knows what going to happen.
One thing I learnt - don't be obsessed with SINGLE COUNTER.

Based on my research:

71% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners
99.9% of daily Apple shares are nothing but being pushed by FUND Manager, who owns 71% of those shares.
So go figure.




pinkdevil88
post Apr 7 2012, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 6 2012, 05:22 PM)
Listen, let's make this simple than lengthy world of text.
Everyone have different view, and they are right from their point of view. Nobody knows what going to happen.
One thing I learnt - don't be obsessed with SINGLE COUNTER.

Based on my research:

71% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners
99.9% of daily Apple shares are nothing but being pushed by FUND Manager, who owns 71% of those shares.
So go figure.
*
You have no numbers to justify and you say BAC will shoot up to $15 for no reason?? Do you know what is the EPS for BAC? I have no problem if you have a different view, but how do you justify this?

What is the problem to be obsessed with a SINGLE COUNTER? If you know this company inside out, you will be better off investing in a single company as you know when to take profit and when there is still potential upside. Unless you have a billion dollar then diversification will work for you.

Warren Buffett made most of his money from just a few companies, in fact a few trades. He is a strong proponent of a concentrate portfolio. Taking one of his quotation "Diversification is protection against ignorance". His right hand man, CHarlie Munger said “Wide diversification, which necessarily includes investment in mediocre businesses, only guarantees ordinary results”

If you are so afraid and want to diversify your portfolio, you might as well invest in an index fund to ensure you get exactly the same return on the index. That will be the same as investing in all the counters! Good diversification strategy?

I will be glad to invest in a company that has a high% of institutional holding, in fact this is one of my investment criteria as it will provide support for the stock price. If the share price is being pushed up due to the fundamental of the stock, strong future earnings and low PE ratio, I do not see a problem. In fact I would be happy seeing the stock price rising.

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